Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:49PM Friday August 18, 2017 1:55 AM CDT (06:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:30AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Am Cdt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering east early in the afternoon, then veering south late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
LMZ646 Expires:201708180900;;556570 FZUS53 KMKX 180606 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 106 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-180900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 180352
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1052 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Aviation(06z tafs)
The clouds wrapping around the strong low pressure system pulling
away from the region are a mix of MVFR andVFR CIGS across
southern wisconsin. They may settle to MVFR later tonight with
skies clearing by around sunrise. Look for the westerly winds to
remain somewhat elevated overnight, increasing for a time during
the morning. The winds will diminish Friday afternoon.

Prev discussion (issued 845 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017)
update...

we have some lingering showers around the area as a spoke of
vorticity rotates around the bottom the upper low center. Very
isolate stuff and should be gone by around midnight. Otherwise,
continued cloudy with elevated west to northwest winds overnight.

Temperature forecast is on track.

Marine...

strong low pressure will continue to lift northeast toward the
eastern basin of lake superior overnight. Look for the west to
northwest winds to remain elevated overnight and into early Friday
afternoon. A small craft advisory remains in effect through 1 pm
Friday.

Prev discussion... (issued 542 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017)
aviation(00z tafs)...

the clouds wrapping around a large low pressure system lifting
northeast from the u.P. Of michigan will bring a mix ofVFR and
MVFR CIGS through the evening. The bulk of the MVFR CIGS will
remain north of milwaukee and madison, but all areas should
gradually improve toVFR by mid morning on Friday. Any lingering
showers will end with sunset and the loss of heating. Westerly
winds will remain elevated overnight, gradually relaxing from west
to east later tonight as the low pulls away.

Prev discussion... (issued 222 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017)
short term...

tonight and Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

An occluding low pressure system will track from northern
wisconsin towards lake superior tonight. Any showers due to
instability within the cyclonic regime should quickly end around
sunset. Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy skies tonight. Windy
conditions will continue due to the strong pressure gradient
associated with the departing low. Gusts to around 30 mph are
possible this evening, with gusts decreasing somewhat later
tonight. The winds will remain quite gusty along lake michigan
overnight.

We'll see a bit more sunshine on Friday as low pressure pulls
away. Winds will become gusty during the day as the mixed layer
deepens, and a lingering pressure gradient remains. A shortwave
trough and weak surface low will approach by afternoon, but any
rain chances appear to hold back to our west through early
evening.

Friday night and Saturday... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper trough continues to sharpen across wisconsin Friday
night before reaching the great lakes region Saturday. The
strongest upper level divergence occurs across northern illinois
Friday evening, but moderate 700 mb upward motion does affect far
southern wisconsin until around midnight. The 850 mb
west southwest wind MAX remains to the south more towards central
illinois. The NAM has precipitation mainly to the south of
wisconsin, while the GFS and, to a lesser extent ECMWF does bring
in some rain. GFS zero to 1 km CAPE is around 200 joules kg, but
does have some steeper lapse rates in the 700 to 500 mb layer.

Mid and lower layers then dry, with just enough moisture around
850 mb to bring a few fair weather cumulus Saturday afternoon.

Long term...

Saturday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

The northwest flow becomes more zonal.

Surface high pressure will move across the great lakes with some
weak warm air advection beginning Sunday.

Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A shortwave will push across the plains Monday and into wisconsin
Monday night and Tuesday.

A surface trough will be near southern wisconsin later Monday and
Tuesday. The ECMWF is slower in bringing precipitation, holding
off until Monday night, while the GFS is faster with showers and
thunderstorms beginning Monday. This system would bring clouds
which will affect viewing the eclipse in southern wi on Monday.

Stay tuned.

Conditions will remain favorable for showers and scattered storms
through Tuesday evening until a cold front drops south. There
could be some severe storms ahead of the front.

High pressure and cooler air will then dominate on Thursday.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

mixture ofVFR MVFR CIGS should continue into tonight. A few lower
cigs are possible, especially north of mke and msn. Scattered
showers should taper off around sunset. Gusty SW winds will veer
westerly tonight, with gusts to around 25 knots at times. Low
level wind shear is possible from this evening into early tonight,
and included this in the tafs. Ceilings should rise toVFR levels
by early tomorrow afternoon, with gusty W to NW winds developing.

Marine...

small craft advisory conditions are expected for the nearshore
waters through early Friday afternoon. Gusty southwest winds this
afternoon will veer westerly tonight, with frequent gusts to 25
knots expected through early Friday afternoon. Mariners should
exercise caution.

Beaches...

a beach hazards statement remains in effect for sheboygan county
through this evening. Winds are now turning more offshore, which
should push the highest waves towards the open waters. Hazardous
swimming conditions should persist until the waves heights decline
later this afternoon.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt Friday for lmz643>646.

Update... Davis
tonight Friday and aviation marine... Spm
Friday night through Thursday... Hentz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi56 min W 8 G 17 70°F 1007.1 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 26 mi76 min W 12 G 18 69°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 41 mi36 min W 12 G 17 68°F
45174 42 mi26 min W 16 G 19 70°F 72°F2 ft65°F
45013 46 mi77 min W 12 G 18 69°F 1006.6 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi81 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F62°F88%1007.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi63 minW 1010.00 miOvercast69°F61°F76%1006.9 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi61 minVar 410.00 miOvercast69°F64°F84%1006 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S8S5S7SW6S6S8SW11
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W9W7W7W7W6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E5SE6E6E5E5SE7E7E10E11E3E6E4SE4SE4S5S5S3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4NE5E6E4E8NE5NE6NE6E8E5E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.