Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:28PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 1:18 PM CST (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:25PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 105 Pm Cst Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots after midnight veering northwest early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering southeast early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201811202300;;598753 FZUS53 KMKX 201905 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 105 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-202300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 201735
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1135 am cst Tue nov 20 2018

Update
No major changes for southern wisconsin at this time. Cloud cover
remains somewhat variable, with higher clouds starting to stream
in from the north. Winds will start to pick up this afternoon as
the next system approaches from the north.

Aviation(18z tafs)
MVFR ceilings are in place in many areas this afternoon, though
ceilings have been a bit variable. West to southwest winds will
increase later this afternoon, with gusts to around 20 knots.

Ceilings may lift for a time, before falling back to 3000-4000 ft
overnight, with the potential for some scattered MVFR ceilings as
well.

Winds will become northwesterly and then northerly late tonight
into tomorrow.

Marine
Winds have temporarily decreased across the lake, but will
increase again this afternoon through tonight from the southwest
and then west.

Open waters...

southwest winds will increase this afternoon into the 25-30 kt
range across the open waters. Gales are expected to develop late
this afternoon through late tonight, especially over the eastern
half of the lake. A gale warning is in effect from 21utc 4 pm cst
to 03utc 3 am cst.

Winds will switch to north and then east on Wednesday, becoming
southerly late Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds will increase
Thursday night into Friday to 25-30 knots, with gusts approaching
gales during the day Friday.

Nearshore...

southwest winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts of 25-30
knots through tonight. A new small craft advisory will go into
effect at 21z this afternoon. Winds will increase again Thursday
night into Friday, and a small craft advisory will likely be
needed for this time.

Prev discussion... (issued 543 am cst Tue nov 20 2018)
aviation(12z tafs)...

snow is winding down in the southeast, with only a flurries
lingering in a few spots through early morning.

There are a few holes in the stratus deck this morning, but the
clouds have generally held on as expected. Ceilings are a mix of
vfr and MVFR and will likely bounce around into the morning hours.

Still think there should be a general improvement in ceilings and
cloud cover by late morning or early afternoon.

Another wave will move through tonight, likely bringing some lower
clouds again. This system isn't expected to produce much in the
way of precipitation across southern wisconsin. If a little precip
is squeezed out though, it may be in the form of freezing drizzle,
particularly for areas north of madison and milwaukee. The best
chance for the freezing drizzle is during the evening and early
night. Could be a few snowflakes as well.

Prev discussion... (issued 230 am cst Tue nov 20 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence - medium to high.

Steady light snow in the eastern forecast area will likely
continue into the early morning hours, with flurries lingering
elsewhere. Still think there could be a dusting in the east by
morning... Less than half an inch total.

Models are struggling with the current cloud cover, suggesting
there should be far less clouds right now. There are a few holes
out there, but no real sign that the clouds will scour out anytime
soon. The clouds will likely hang on through at least the early
morning hours until daytime mixing kicks in. Might see flurries
hang around into the morning as well. The clouds are keeping
temps from falling much right now, so bumped early morning lows up
a couple degrees. The clouds will also keep it from warming much
after daybreak, though some sunshine is expected by afternoon.

It's pretty chilly aloft though, so not expecting temps to get
much above 30 even with some sun.

Another wave will move through tonight, bringing more clouds and
possibly a little precip to the area. If precip does fall, it may
be in the form of freezing drizzle, particularly for areas north
of madison and milwaukee. The best chance for the freezing drizzle
is during the evening and early night. Could be a few snowflakes
as well.

Wednesday through Thursday night... Forecast confidence -
medium to high.

A large area of high pressure will pass by to the north of the
great lakes on Wednesday. This will result in gradually thinning
low to mid level moisture and erosion of cloud cover through the
day across inland areas. Clouds likely to linger in eastern areas,
or may be more variable on Wednesday returning to full cloudiness
Wednesday night. Low level flow turns northeast later Wednesday
into Wednesday evening, and continues to veer to the southeast by
Thursday morning. Short term guidance showing considerable
difference in amount of low level moisture picked up by cold winds
flowing across lake michigan. Latest NAM showing moisture
increasing to 3k ft overnight Wednesday night with a delta-t in
the impressive 17 degree range. Lake induced CAPE rises to over
200 j with the equilibrium level around 4k ft. GFS and ecmwf
showing much less moisture. However higher resolution NAM tends to
pickup these events better. Low level flow continues to veer
overnight, so a single band of snow showers affecting one area is
not expected. May result in some very light snow or flurries
affecting lakeshore and next tier of counties inland as winds veer
overnight. For now, wl have chance for light snow showers in
overnight into early Thursday. Otherwise, low to mid level ridging
spreading across the western great lakes will result in quiet but
continued cold conditions Thursday and Thursday night, with
warmer air surging in on Friday.

Long term...

Friday through Monday night... Forecast confidence - medium to high
at beginning of period, trending to low by Sunday.

Increasing low level winds ahead of an approaching amplifying and
digging mid-level short wave will pump warmer, moist air into
southern wisconsin on Friday and Friday night. Precipitable
water increases to around 0.7" by 00z.Sat. 925h temps increase into
the 1-3c range. Daytime temps on Friday are expected to rise into
the lower to middle 40s and only slip back into the mid 30s
Friday night. Rain showers should accompany the trof as it pushes
through Friday night into Saturday as the low level thermal profile
favors above freezing conditions from the surface through 4k feet.

Pavement temperatures on Friday should warm well above freezing, so
freezing precipitation is not anticipated at the onset.

Medium range guidance in general agreement on this first short
wave progressing east of the area later Saturday, with secondary
short wave moving southeast across the central rockies into the
southern and central plains Saturday night and Sunday. This system
undergoes cyclogenesis in the southern plains as it progresses
northeast through the central ms valley region toward the oh
valley by Monday. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding
the strength, speed and track of this system Sunday night into
Monday as it moves northeast. The latest ECMWF has the system
weakening and more progressive resulting in less QPF for southern
wi during this period. The GFS is slower and taking on a negative
tilt on Monday, resulting in a more prolonged period of
precipitation for the area. Meanwhile, the gem is weaker and
farther south, trending toward the latest ECMWF solution. Wpc
blend favors the GFS parallel and ECMWF ensemble solutions which
keep main axis of heavier precipitation to the south. Never the
less, northeast winds north of the low pressure may result in some
lake enhancement later Sunday night and or Monday as mixed
precipitation changes over to all snow. Emc GEFS plume for kmke
showing a wide range of precipitation possible, anywhere from zero
to 1.2" of QPF and zero to over 4" of snow, hence low confidence.

Need less to say, this system bears watching and could
potentially bring accumulating snowfall to parts of southern wi
early next week. Due to considerable uncertainty, will hold off on
mentioning in hwo.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

steady light snow in the eastern forecast area will likely
continue into the early morning hours, with flurries lingering
elsewhere. Still think there could be a dusting in the east by
morning... Less than half an inch total.

Ceilings are mainly MVFR with the snow, with the stratus in the
3-4 kft range elsewhere. Models are struggling with the stratus
and flurries, showing there should be much more clearing at this
point. Held onto the clouds into the morning as a result, as
there's no indication that these clouds will scour out, though
there are a few holes out there. Will likely have to wait for
some better daytime mixing for more clearing. Might see flurries
hang on into the morning as well.

Another wave will move through tonight, likely bringing some lower
clouds again. This system isn't expected to produce much in the
way of precipitation across southern wisconsin. If a little precip
is squeezed out though, it may be in the form of freezing drizzle,
particularly for areas north of madison and milwaukee. The best
chance for the freezing drizzle is during the evening and early
night. Could be a few snowflakes as well.

Marine...

though wind gusts might be underachieving a bit, the timing of
the current small craft advisory still looks good given the
lingering high waves.

Southwest to west winds will pick up this afternoon into the
evening, decreasing a bit and becoming west to northwest after
midnight. Another small craft advisory will likely be needed for
this period for the nearshore waters. A few gusts could hit gale
force over the open waters. The window of opportunity is not
particulary long and current forecast gusts are borderline, so
will hold off on a gale watch or warning for now. The highest
waves for this round of wind will be across the eastern half of
lake michigan.

Southerly winds may approach gale force Thursday night through
Friday night, with the highest waves in central and northern
portions of the lake.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 3 am cst Wednesday for
lmz669-671-673-675.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am cst
Wednesday for lmz643>646.

Update... Boxell
today tonight and aviation marine... Boxell
Wednesday through Monday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi18 min SW 13 G 19 33°F 1020.7 hPa (-3.0)
45187 26 mi18 min 36°F 42°F2 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 26 mi38 min W 16 G 19 33°F
45186 27 mi18 min NW 14 34°F 41°F2 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 41 mi28 min SW 17 G 21 31°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi23 minWSW 12 G 1810.00 miFair31°F16°F54%1020.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi25 minWSW 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F21°F64%1021.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi23 minSW 12 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy33°F19°F58%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW8NW6NW5NW5N7N8N9N6N7N6NW6N6N9N7NW6NW4NW5NW6--W6SW5W9SW14
G17
1 day agoW6W8W8W4W3W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4W3CalmSW5SW4S5SW5SW8SW9SW7SW7W8
2 days agoN4N6N6N6N4N6N5N4N4N4N4N4N5CalmN3N5NW4N5NW5NW5NW5W3NW9W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.