Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:32PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 11:07 AM CST (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Am Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of today..East wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots veering southeast with gusts to around 30 knots early in the afternoon, then veering south 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of snow late in the morning. Light freezing rain through the day. Rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering west 10 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to around 1 foot in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Freezing spray in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest after midnight, then becoming north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves nearly calm. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201902202300;;233778 FZUS53 KMKX 201505 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-202300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 201613 aab
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1013 am cst Wed feb 20 2019

Update
Winter weather advisory continues into this afternoon across the
forecast area. Will watch trends to see if ending times for the
advisory need adjustment.

There is a round of modest 850 mb frontogenesis response that
will push northward through the area late this morning into the
afternoon. This should bring another round of precipitation to
the area, exiting by early this evening. This trend is shown on
most of the latest mesoscale models.

Have seen some freezing rain or drizzle reports in southeastern
parts of the area back into northern illinois. This is indicative
of cloud ice being lost, which should continue across the
southeast half of the forecast area later this morning and this
afternoon. May go with more freezing drizzle drizzle wording than
freezing rain rain, given that it is expected to be mainly light
precipitation. Some areas may go above freezing, which would lead
to drizzle, but untreated road surfaces and shaded areas may
remain below freezing, so slick surfaces are still anticipated.

Areas in the northwest half of the forecast area will see a mix of
snow and freezing rain drizzle, or all snow toward the dells area
and points north and west. Another 1 to 2 inches of additional
snow accumulation is possible in this area, with lower amounts to
the south and east. The freezing drizzle rain will leave a light
glazing on untreated surfaces.

Marine
Nearshore waters...

small craft advisory continues until 9 am cst Thursday. Gusty east
to southeast winds will linger into early this afternoon, with
gusts to 30 knots. Winds will become south to southwest by middle
to late afternoon, briefly weakening to 10 to 15 knots.

They will then become southwest to west tonight, increasing to 15
to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Waves will build to 3 to 6
feet in ice free areas into this afternoon, before subsiding to 1
to 2 feet tonight.

Open waters...

gale warning continues for the south half of the lake until 3 pm
cst this afternoon. East to southeast gales to 35 knots are
expected during this time. Waves will build to 6 to 9 feet
occasionally to 12 feet on the western shore of the lake.

Winds will shift to the southwest to west tonight, with a few
gales to 35 knots possible in the late evening and overnight. May
need to extend the gale warning into tonight for the south half
and possibly expand it to the north half as well. High waves will
develop on the eastern parts of the lake tonight, in ice free
areas.

Prev discussion (issued 529 am cst Wed feb 20 2019)
update...

snow has spread into the entire forecast area early this morning
and will persist through the early morning hours. This will result
in snow covered roads most places for the morning commute. A
transition to wintry mix is still expected mid morning into the
afternoon.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

ceilings and visibilites will continue to go down this morning as
snow moves in from the southwest. A quick 1 to 3 inches is
expected across much of the area by mid-morning. A wintry mix is
then expected mid-morning into the afternoon. Places northwest of
madison may remain snow for a large part of the time. Sleet and
freezing rain will be possible most places, with ice accumulations
up to 0.15 inches, especially from madison southeastward. Precip
will come to and end southwest to northeast late afternoon to
early evening. Snow totals will range from 1 to 2 inches east... To
3 to 5 inches west.

Lower ceilings will hang on into tonight... With decreasing clouds
on Thursday.

Prev discussion... (issued 513 am cst Wed feb 20 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
snow continues to move in from the southwest this morning. This
snow will impact the morning commute across southern wisconsin,
with 1 to 3 inches on the ground by the time of the commute. The
highest amounts will be southwest of madison.

Precip will then transition to a wintry mix mid-morning into the
afternoon as ice crystal development will likely be lost for a
time. Some question as to sleet vs freezing rain, especially this
afternoon when it looks more showery. The temp profile will be
completely below freezing, so just a matter of how deep saturation
will be and how much overall cold air through the lower levels for
sleet development. Forecast ice totals of up to 0.15 inches are
based on expecting mainly freezing rain, so these totals would be
less if there ends up being more sleet. Locations west northwest
of madison may remain snow for much of the time, so highest snow
totals remain in these locations.

Could see some blowing snow this morning before mixed precip sets
in.

May see precip turn to just rain for a time in the southeast this
afternoon if surface temps get above freezing as expected.

Precip will wind down quickly from SW to NE later this afternoon
to early evening. Kept the winter weather advisory times as is for
now.

Thursday through Friday... Forecast confidence high.

Brisk wly winds will gradually lessen on Thu as high pressure
approaches. The high will settle over SRN wi for Thu nt with single
digit temps inland. The high will then move to the mid atlantic
states on Fri with an esely flow developing over SRN wi. High temps
will be near seasonal normals for thu-fri.

Long term... Friday night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence
medium.

An inverted sfc trough will approach from the great plains Fri nt
with fairly strong 850 mb warm advection ahead of it. 850 mb temps
will warm to 2-6c across the area. Snow and freezing rain is likely
with initially snow over the NRN half of the area while the pcpn
will start as freezing rain from msn to mke and south. A winter wx
advisory will likely be needed for expected ice accums.

On sat, a strong shortwave trough will induce rapid deepening of a
sfc low from ok to SE ia. The occluded low, approximately 985 mb,
will then track across SE wi late Sat nt. Temps will warm above
freezing quickly Sat am with mostly rain expected through Sat eve.

The rain will then change to light snow as cold advection cools the
column below freezing. 1-3 inches forecast toward central wi if this
track holds. Windy and cooler conditions will prevail on Sun with
most of the snow ending by afternoon.

Polar high pressure will then return for Monday with below normal
temps forecast. The high will shift east for Tue as a weak low
pressure area affects the region. Light snow will become likely late
mon nt-tue.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

ceilings and visibilites will continue to go down this morning as
snow moves in from the southwest. A quick 1 to 3 inches is
expected across much of the area by mid-morning. A wintry mix is
then expected mid-morning into the afternoon. Places northwest of
madison may remain snow for a large part of the time. Sleet and
freezing rain will be possible most places, with ice accumulations
up to 0.15 inches, especially from madison southeastward. Precip
will come to and end southwest to northeast late afternoon to
early evening. Snow totals will range from 1 to 2 inches east... To
3 to 5 inches west.

Lower ceiling will hang on into tonight... With decreasing clouds
on Thursday.

Marine...

low pressure will lift northeast into wisconsin today and then
across northern lake michigan and into canada tonight. Gusty east
to southeast winds are expected today ahead of the low, with
gusty southwest to west winds tonight into Thursday. Gusts will
likely reach gale force in the south half of the lake today, with
a few gale gusts possible across the lake later this evening into
tonight.

Issued a gale warning for the south half for this morning into
the afternoon. Kept the small craft advisory going for the
nearshore waters into Thursday morning.

Lighter winds are expected later Thursday into Friday, with
strong winds likely to return by late in the weekend.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for wiz046-
047-051-052-056>060-062>065-067>070.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm cst this afternoon for wiz066-
071-072.

Lm... Gale warning until 3 pm cst this afternoon for lmz080-669-671-
673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for lmz643>646.

Update... Wood
today tonight and aviation marine... Ddv
Thursday through Tuesday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi67 min ESE 5.1 G 7 31°F 1011.5 hPa (-3.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 26 mi27 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 31°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 41 mi27 min E 8 G 8.9 30°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi72 minE 14 G 191.50 miFog/Mist29°F28°F99%1010.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi74 minESE 16 G 250.75 miLight Rain Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F96%1012.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi72 minESE 15 G 240.75 miLight Freezing Rain Fog/Mist31°F28°F89%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE7E5E4CalmNE3CalmCalmE3E4E7E7E9
G14
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G16
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1 day agoN4NW5NW7NW8NW10W8NW5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE9E10
G15
NE8E9
G15
NE11
G17
NE10NE8N5N4N7N6N6N8N5N8N6NW7N7N8N7N7N8N8N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.