Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Twin Lakes, WI
May 16, 2024 1:44 PM CDT (18:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:28 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 1:27 PM Moonset 2:34 AM |
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 105 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of today - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering south late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight veering west early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Areas of dense fog after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots easing to 5 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ600
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 161538 AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1038 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late morning into the early evening. Some could be strong to severe with small hail and gusty winds as the main threats. A marginal risk (1 out of 5) has been issued for most of southern WI.
- Summer-like temperatures and mostly dry Fri-Sun.
- A wet and unsettled period for Mon-Tue.
UPDATE
Issued 1015 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Higher dew points are working their way into southwest Wisconsin at the moment behind a week warm frontal boundary, with mid 50 degree dew points being observed in Grant County and along the Mississippi River and low 60s observed over northeast to eastern Iowa. As time goes on this morning, warm moist advection on southerly winds should bring these better dewpoints north into a larger area of southern Wisconsin as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. SBCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg will result, and with an advancing cold front and shortwave aloft, scattered thunderstorm development may occur between 12 to 2 PM in western to central WI.
Gusty winds and hail appear to be the main threats, but storms actually reaching severe criteria (quarter sized hail stones, 60 mph winds) may be isolated, owing to a skinny CAPE profile, marginally supportive mid-level lapse rates, and marginally supportive effective bulk shear. The already conditional, low tornado threat appears even lower this morning owing to less projected low to mid level SRH and an unfavorable warm front orientation with respect to storm motion.
Storms should begin to taper off/exit east over Lake Michigan between 6-9PM this evening.
CMiller
SHORT TERM
Issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Today through Saturday:
A shortwave trough slightly amplifying and digging into MN will move across the nrn half of WI today then lift newd into Ontario tnt. At the surface, the warm front approaching the MS river will quickly lift into central WI this afternoon then stall as a weak wave of low pressure moves along it. A weak sfc trough/wind shift will then follow for late afternoon and early evening over srn WI. A plume of PWs of 1-1.2 inches and MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG is expected for the afternoon along with deep layer shear of 30 kts. At this time it still appears shower and storm development is likely with moist low to mid levels resulting in little to no capping, in addition to the lift from a meaningful band of PVA extending south from the main shortwave trough. Additional isolated development will be possible during the early evening along the weak wind shift. The aforementioned CAPE and shear combo would support marginal conditions for SVR storms with any short segment lines that may develop or possible supercell structures.
Fog may then become a concern tnt especially where any meaningful rain occurs as the sfc trough dissipates and good radiational cooling conditions develop where clearing occurs.
Weak high pressure will then prevail over Lake MI Fri-Fri nt with 500 mb height rises over the Great Lakes. Any fog should quickly burn off Fri AM followed by summer like temps away from the lake. Temps will then warm into the lower 80s well inland from the lake for Sat as an upper ridge builds over the Great Lakes in response to an occluding low over Manitoba.
Gehring
LONG TERM
Issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Saturday night through Wednesday:
Filling low pressure is trending northward due to a nose of high pressure nudging in from the central Plains on Saturday night, leading to diminished chances for rainfall along an associated cold front. Still, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in west-central Wisconsin during the evening to overnight hours before the frontal feature weakens. Dry and sunny conditions with light northerly winds are then expected through Sunday, leading to temperatures near 80 degrees across much of southern Wisconsin.
Light winds may lead to a lake breeze component, keeping shoreline counties cooler.
Developing low pressure in the central and northern Plains then brings a weak warm frontal feature through southern Wisconsin late Sunday night into Monday, with showery activity increasing into Monday morning. Low pressure follows general steering flow northward around the surface high, bringing chances for thunderstorms throughout Monday afternoon as the surface trough pivots slowly eastward. A wet, warm pattern continues through Tuesday as additional shortwaves propagate northeastward along the previously initiated trough. As high pressure retreats eastward on Wednesday, expect precipitation to exit. However, wrap around precipitation may produce a few additional showers through Wednesday.
Gehring
AVIATION
Issued 1035 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Light southerly winds will persist today among mainly VFR background conditions. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon, which may drop vis and ceiling categories in their vicinity. Skies should then clear some this evening following storms, but fog may form, especially along the lakeshore, leading to reductions in vis down to 1-2 miles.
CMiller
MARINE
Issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Light east to northeast winds early this morning will veer to east to southeasterly later this morning and last through the day. This will occur as a weak trough of low pressure moves across Wisconsin then dissipates over the lake tonight. Weak high pressure will then prevail over the lake Friday and Friday night. Areas of dense fog will be possible over the lake tonight into Friday as a relatively humid airmass flows over the cold waters.
Gehring
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1038 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late morning into the early evening. Some could be strong to severe with small hail and gusty winds as the main threats. A marginal risk (1 out of 5) has been issued for most of southern WI.
- Summer-like temperatures and mostly dry Fri-Sun.
- A wet and unsettled period for Mon-Tue.
UPDATE
Issued 1015 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Higher dew points are working their way into southwest Wisconsin at the moment behind a week warm frontal boundary, with mid 50 degree dew points being observed in Grant County and along the Mississippi River and low 60s observed over northeast to eastern Iowa. As time goes on this morning, warm moist advection on southerly winds should bring these better dewpoints north into a larger area of southern Wisconsin as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. SBCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg will result, and with an advancing cold front and shortwave aloft, scattered thunderstorm development may occur between 12 to 2 PM in western to central WI.
Gusty winds and hail appear to be the main threats, but storms actually reaching severe criteria (quarter sized hail stones, 60 mph winds) may be isolated, owing to a skinny CAPE profile, marginally supportive mid-level lapse rates, and marginally supportive effective bulk shear. The already conditional, low tornado threat appears even lower this morning owing to less projected low to mid level SRH and an unfavorable warm front orientation with respect to storm motion.
Storms should begin to taper off/exit east over Lake Michigan between 6-9PM this evening.
CMiller
SHORT TERM
Issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Today through Saturday:
A shortwave trough slightly amplifying and digging into MN will move across the nrn half of WI today then lift newd into Ontario tnt. At the surface, the warm front approaching the MS river will quickly lift into central WI this afternoon then stall as a weak wave of low pressure moves along it. A weak sfc trough/wind shift will then follow for late afternoon and early evening over srn WI. A plume of PWs of 1-1.2 inches and MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG is expected for the afternoon along with deep layer shear of 30 kts. At this time it still appears shower and storm development is likely with moist low to mid levels resulting in little to no capping, in addition to the lift from a meaningful band of PVA extending south from the main shortwave trough. Additional isolated development will be possible during the early evening along the weak wind shift. The aforementioned CAPE and shear combo would support marginal conditions for SVR storms with any short segment lines that may develop or possible supercell structures.
Fog may then become a concern tnt especially where any meaningful rain occurs as the sfc trough dissipates and good radiational cooling conditions develop where clearing occurs.
Weak high pressure will then prevail over Lake MI Fri-Fri nt with 500 mb height rises over the Great Lakes. Any fog should quickly burn off Fri AM followed by summer like temps away from the lake. Temps will then warm into the lower 80s well inland from the lake for Sat as an upper ridge builds over the Great Lakes in response to an occluding low over Manitoba.
Gehring
LONG TERM
Issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Saturday night through Wednesday:
Filling low pressure is trending northward due to a nose of high pressure nudging in from the central Plains on Saturday night, leading to diminished chances for rainfall along an associated cold front. Still, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in west-central Wisconsin during the evening to overnight hours before the frontal feature weakens. Dry and sunny conditions with light northerly winds are then expected through Sunday, leading to temperatures near 80 degrees across much of southern Wisconsin.
Light winds may lead to a lake breeze component, keeping shoreline counties cooler.
Developing low pressure in the central and northern Plains then brings a weak warm frontal feature through southern Wisconsin late Sunday night into Monday, with showery activity increasing into Monday morning. Low pressure follows general steering flow northward around the surface high, bringing chances for thunderstorms throughout Monday afternoon as the surface trough pivots slowly eastward. A wet, warm pattern continues through Tuesday as additional shortwaves propagate northeastward along the previously initiated trough. As high pressure retreats eastward on Wednesday, expect precipitation to exit. However, wrap around precipitation may produce a few additional showers through Wednesday.
Gehring
AVIATION
Issued 1035 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Light southerly winds will persist today among mainly VFR background conditions. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon, which may drop vis and ceiling categories in their vicinity. Skies should then clear some this evening following storms, but fog may form, especially along the lakeshore, leading to reductions in vis down to 1-2 miles.
CMiller
MARINE
Issued 400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Light east to northeast winds early this morning will veer to east to southeasterly later this morning and last through the day. This will occur as a weak trough of low pressure moves across Wisconsin then dissipates over the lake tonight. Weak high pressure will then prevail over the lake Friday and Friday night. Areas of dense fog will be possible over the lake tonight into Friday as a relatively humid airmass flows over the cold waters.
Gehring
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 24 mi | 45 min | SSE 5.1G | 55°F | 29.82 | |||
| 45187 | 26 mi | 35 min | 5.8G | 54°F | 53°F | 1 ft | ||
| 45186 | 27 mi | 35 min | 3.9G | 56°F | 55°F | 1 ft | ||
| 45199 | 35 mi | 75 min | SSE 12 | 48°F | 47°F | 1 ft | 29.83 | |
| MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 39 mi | 35 min | SSE 12G | 58°F | ||||
| 45013 | 46 mi | 45 min | S 7.8G | 51°F | 50°F | 1 ft | 29.81 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBUU BURLINGTON MUNI,WI | 12 sm | 29 min | SSW 05G15 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 59°F | 65% | 29.78 | |
| KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI | 18 sm | 51 min | SW 05G18 | 5 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 70°F | 59°F | 69% | 29.81 |
| KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 22 sm | 53 min | SE 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 54°F | 64% | 29.81 |
Milwaukee, WI,
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