Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beloit, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:18PM Monday March 27, 2017 5:32 PM CDT (22:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 6:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 306 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..North wind 15 to 20 knots with a few gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201703280300;;173658 FZUS53 KMKX 272006 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 306 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-646-280300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beloit, WI
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location: 42.52, -89.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 272022
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
320 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Tonight and Tuesday - forecast confidence High.

Clouds will remain over southern wisconsin through Tuesday morning.

A few drops of drizzle are possible during the late afternoon/
evening hours as low pressure tracks to our southeast.

Drier air working its way southward Tuesday afternoon will help to
break up the clouds. It is still questionable about how much
sunshine we will see before sunset. Low temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 30s tonight. Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s near lake
michigan and lower 50s inland.

Tuesday night through Thursday - forecast confidence Medium
trending low.

Differences persist with this mid-week system and have now
encroached into the short term guidance. The GFS is now showing
quite a bit of run to run consistency with this next in a series of
upstream long wave trofs that gets ejected into the central/southern
plains on Wednesday. At 00z Thursday, sfc low wl be over the nrn
tx/ok border area while upper level circulation will be around tx
panhandle. By 12z Thursday, sfc low has progressed northeast into
southern mo/northern ar area while mid-level circulation has moved
into central ks. GFS has adjusted slightly slower and farther south
with mid-level circulation, but still showing good consistency.

Lingering mid-level ridging and drier ely flow has kept bulk of
precipitation over NRN il Wed night as low levels remain mostly dry
thru 12z. In all, GFS carries through Thursday more ely and slower
progression with axis of heavier QPF across NRN il. This would
result in less rain/snow mix for SRN wi both Wed ngt and thu. This
period on edge of NAM cycle and showing lack of continuity at 12z
thu from last two runs, so minor contribution from NAM at this
point.

Meanwhile, 12z ECMWF showing slightly slower northward progression
and trending farther south during the day Thursday. However ecmwf
still shows strong push of low level warm air advection grazing
southern wi later Wed night resulting in more widespread heavier qpf
across SRN wi. Also, ECMWF starting to show a stronger split flow
across the great lakes with a greater contribution from weaker mid-
level short wave passing through the western great lakes on
Thursday. In addition, ECMWF trending downward with qpf. Hence
ecmwf and GFS continue to adjust hopefully toward a general united
solution which will be clearer tomorrow. Thermal structure still
favors a rain/snow mix developing with a period of -sn across the
north later Wed night into Thu mrng.

Extended period
Thursday night through Monday - forecast confidence... Low trending
medium.

Uncertainties remain with respect to low pressure system tracking
from the mid-ms valley region northeast toward the eastern great
lakes by Friday night and Saturday. 12z ECMWF has adjusted slightly
to be more in line with GFS with sfc low taking more southern track
across central il into WRN oh Thu night while GFS slower and remains
farther south. Nh canadian now outlier and farther north, so will be
discounted for now. Upstream amplifying long-wave trof digging into
the western CONUS should result in this system becoming more
progressive Thu night and Friday. Wpc blended guidance leaning
toward slower solution which would have the precipitation threat
continuing into Friday, with a chance for the rain to transition
back to a mix Thursday night into Friday morning. Prefer blend as
well as difficult to pick out preferences for one solution vs
another but ECMWF and GFS converging on similar scenario. Gfs
ensembles show fairly good agreement through 18z before diverging on
speed and track of system.

Uncertainties continue over the weekend as to strength of zonal flow
and whether weak mid-level short waves passing across southern
canada will affect the western great lakes over the weekend into
early next week, or whether next in a series of ejecting short waves
from the southwest may result in precipitation spreading in from the
southwest by Monday.

Aviation (21z TAF update)
Ceilings are in the 1000-2000 ft range this afternoon. Areas near
madison and west should drop back down to ifr for a while tonight.

Light fog will be possible mainly west of madison overnight.

Dry air will work its way into southern wi from the north Tuesday
afternoon. Expect a trend toVFR CIGS and eventual clearing tue
afternoon/evening.

Marine
Extended the marine dense fog advisory once again for areas south of
the north point light until late evening when increasing northeast
winds should help to diminish the fog.

Northeast winds and waves will approach small craft advisory levels
late tonight into Tuesday, but expect them to remain just under
criteria so no headline.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 10 pm cdt for lmz645-646.

Tonight and Tuesday/aviation/marine... Mrc
Tuesday night through Monday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 66 mi33 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 39°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 66 mi53 min NNE 8 G 8.9 39°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 72 mi43 min E 1.9 G 2.9 38°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI7 mi48 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast52°F44°F77%1012.9 hPa
Rockford, Greater Rockford Airport, IL22 mi39 minN 610.00 miOvercast53°F44°F72%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N3CalmN6CalmCalmNW4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5E5NE3CalmCalmNE7
1 day agoE13E14E10
G14
NE10E12NE8E10E8E9E8E9E9E7E8E7E5NE5NE5NE5NE5CalmN5N3N3
2 days agoNE11NE9NE11NE6E7E10NE11
G16
NE12NE12NE11NE8NE8NE8NE10NE11
G16
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E15E18NE18E16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.