Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salem, MA

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Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:25PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 7:37 AM EDT (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:41PMMoonset 6:09AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2019
Today..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Stalled frontal boundary S of long island will be the focus for a series of weak low pressure waves and bouts of showers and Thunder- storms through Friday. Generally an easterly wind throughout with boating conditions below small craft advisory levels. High pressure into the weekend with westerly winds. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salem, MA
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location: 42.53, -70.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181100
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
700 am edt Tue jun 18 2019

Synopsis
Scattered showers today mainly S of the ma pike. A few spot showers
possible Wednesday into early Thursday, but overall dry weather
should dominate this time period. A low pressure system will
bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall, late Thursday into Friday morning. Dry weather
return for the weekend with a warming trend Sunday into Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
7 am update...

an initial round of showers impacted portions of ct ri early
this morning and has moved into southeast ma. A larger cluster
of showers developing across southern ny and pa will impact much
of the region later this morning into the afternoon. Scattered showers
will be possible across the entire region, but the activity will
be more widespread south of the ma turnpike where the greater
forcing resides.

There might be some brief heavy rain south of the ma turnpike, but
still think that the heaviest rain and threat for flash
flooding will remain southwest of our region. This is where the
axis of higher instability resides, which is usually where the
convection tends to gravitate towards.

Previous discussion...

widespread showers with embedded heavier downpours and thunderstorms
likely S of the ma-pike. An evaluation of lifting mechanisms as well
as thetae and instability axes. Focusing closely on surface-h7 wind
confluence, deformation and lapse rates collocated with a diffuse w-
e surface frontal boundary beneath stretched mid-level energy and
right rear quadrant of an h3 jet through the overall flat flow.

Several things stand out within a consensus of forecast guidance: 1)
that surface-h7 deformation is not further N of the ma-pike, 2) both
the thetae and instability axes are confluent mainly towards pa nj,
lower values across new england, especially at the surface, 3) that
better h925-85 confluence is S of long island, 4) surface to h85
lapse rates indicate the presence of a marine layer especially over
s SE coastal new england, 5) mid-level energy stretches across S new
england with heights remaining fairly stable, and 6) h3 diffluence
is apparent with the right-rear-quadrant of the upper-level jet.

Altogether, ingredients aren't lining up well over S new england for
a soaker, rather off the nj coast, along the s-coast of long island.

Evident in href, as oh river valley mid-level energy ejects E that
invokes a weak wave low along the stalled frontal boundary, will see
a pull S W of the maritime layer across SE new england. Believe the
focus for heavy rain and convection will be off nj, apparent in a
variety of href probabilistic guidance.

However, in collaboration with surrounding wfos and evaluating up-
stream trends, will press the higher pops and rainfall amounts s
of the ma-pike. There are subtle hints of weak height falls and
troughing that would support wave-low energy perhaps sneaking a
bit n. Yet, still think the heaviest will reside further S within
the more favorable convective environment of pa nj, perhaps into
the nyc tri-state region. Amounts over 0.50 from hartford to roughly
nantucket.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
* 2 am update ...

toning down. Behind both the mid-level stretched impulse and weak
wave low along the diffuse w-e stalled frontal boundary, more than
likely having sulked s, optimistic that any shower and or thunder-
storm activity will be out over the waters. E onshore pull with
the low s, marine airmass, some fog low cloud concerns. Lows
down around 60.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* a few spot showers possible Wed wed night but dry weather dominates
* showers and a few embedded t-storms with locally heavy rainfall
late Thu into Fri am particularly in northern and western ma
* dry weather anticipated for the weekend with a warming trend sun
into mon
details...

Wednesday into Wednesday night...

a weak boundary will be located across southern new england, but
there is little in the way of synoptic scale forcing. So while a
few spot showers will be possible from time to time, expect dry
weather to dominate Wed into Wed night despite lots of clouds. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 70s to perhaps near 80 in the ct
river valley. Meanwhile... Given onshore flow portions of the
eastern ma coast may struggle to reach 70.

Thursday into Friday...

a rather robust shortwave for the second half of june will approach
from the west. This combined with pwats of 1.75 to 2 inches and an
area of low level convergence should result in showers with locally
heavy rainfall, the bulk of which should be late Thu into fri
morning. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible as well with
some elevated instability. The axis of heaviest rain still needs to
be sorted out and will depend on the exact track of the surface low
pressure system frontal boundary. Current indications are that the
heaviest rainfall will setup across western and northern ma or in
northern new england. Areas north of this low level boundary will
serve as a focus for the low level jet high pwat axis.

So in a nutshell... The bulk of the showers and a few embedded t-
storms will be late Thu into Fri morning. However, axis of heaviest
rain remains uncertain and will come down to positioning of the
surface boundary and mesoscale meteorology. Currently favoring our
northern and western zones or perhaps in northern new england.

Saturday through Monday...

the persistent upper level trough across eastern canada will
gradually shift east this weekend through Monday. The result will be
rising height fields warming trend Sun into mon. Cyclonic flow
around departing low pressure should result in highs mainly in the
70s sat, and probably 80+ by Sun and especially mon.

Northwest flow aloft should result in dry weather this weekend. The
risk for some showers and a few t-storms may increase later Mon into
mon night as instability moisture increases ahead of the next cold
front.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... Moderate confidence.

Today ...

ifr to MVFR conditions south of the ma turnpike in showers with
brief heavy rainfall possible. Lifr conditions at times near the south
coast in lower clouds and fog patches. To the north of the ma
turnpike expect low endVFR to MVFR conditions along with
scattered showers. Ese winds of 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight ...

widespread ifr-lifr CIGS with E onshore flow. Lower confidence
with respect to vsbys, however MVFR-ifr is expected. -shra
pushing S e, offshore, the TAF period looking dry.

Kbos terminal...

MVFR conditions likely dominate today. Perhaps some marginal ifr
conditions develop by late afternoon early evening. Scattered showers
expected.

Kbdl terminal...

MVFR conditions likely dominate today in rounds of showers.

Brief ifr conditions possible in heavier showers.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Slight chance
shra, patchy fg.

Thursday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shra, isolated
tsra, patchy br.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Shra,
isolated tsra.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, isolated tsra.

Friday night through Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... High confidence.

Into early morning ...

light winds with visibility lowering as the night progresses in
areas of fog especially southern waters.

Today ...

weak low pressure tracks south of new england. Not much wind or
wave but poor visibility in showers and fog. Threat of heavier
rain, thunderstorms mainly over the s-waters.

Tonight ...

weak low exits across georges bank. Not much wind or wave with
its passage. However low visibility may linger despite rain
exiting seaward.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, patchy fog.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog.

Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sipprell frank
near term... Frank sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Frank
aviation... Sipprell frank
marine... Sipprell frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 17 mi94 min S 3.9 G 3.9 58°F 56°F1 ft1015.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi48 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 58°F1 ft1014.7 hPa (+0.6)60°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 33 mi38 min NNE 13 G 15 57°F 1014.8 hPa (+0.3)53°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 37 mi113 min ENE 1 58°F 1016 hPa58°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 43 mi60 min 56°F2 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi48 min S 7.8 G 7.8 60°F 2 ft1015.6 hPa (+0.6)60°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA4 mi45 minNE 510.00 miA Few Clouds62°F55°F78%1014.2 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi44 minE 57.00 miOvercast66°F61°F84%1015 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA18 mi44 minENE 610.00 miFair64°F53°F68%1015.6 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA22 mi1.7 hrsN 05.00 miFog/Mist63°F59°F87%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N4N563SE11SE9SE9SE8S6SE8SE6S5SE3CalmS3SW3CalmCalmSW3N5CalmNE4NE5
1 day agoSW5SW4SW6SW5SW5SW6CalmS3SE4SE3E4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W4NW3NW4NW5N5NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Beverly, Massachusetts
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Beverly
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Tue -- 12:19 AM EDT     10.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:59 PM EDT     8.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.310.18.86.74.21.6-0.2-0.40.52.24.56.88.498.475.12.91.10.71.73.45.57.7

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
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Tue -- 01:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:02 AM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:19 PM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.20.10.30.40.50.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.300.30.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.