Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salem, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:44PM Saturday January 20, 2018 9:47 PM EST (02:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 9:18PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, except 4 to 6 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pressure will build S of the waters this weekend. Low pres will pass well W of the region late Monday, but its associated front will likely bring periods of rain and gusty southerly winds Mon night into Tue, shifting to W on Wed. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salem, MA
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location: 42.53, -70.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 202315
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
615 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Synopsis
A fast moving storm system will bring the potential for heavy
rain and a period of strong winds on the coast Tuesday, but this
will be preceded by a risk of a light wintry mix ice across the
interior Monday into early Tuesday morning. Blustery, dry and
colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, before above
normal temperatures likely return next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
615 pm update...

a ridge of high pressure will result in mainly clear skies
tonight other than some high thin cirrus. However... There might
be a bit of mid level cloudiness trying to work into portions of
interior southern new england after midnight. Winds will
continue to diminish and allow for low temperatures in the 20s
to the lower 30s.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
High pressure in place Sunday with fair skies and light wind.

Moisture fields do show some increasing mid and high level moisture,
so expect some increasing clouds mostly in the afternoon evening.

With mixing to 950 mb, expect MAX temps in the mid to upper 40s, a
few spots around 50.

The clouds increase Sunday night. A cold front in northern new
england dips south and may slip through southern new england. But
with the upper flow west-east we do not expect a lot of push to it,
and potential that it stalls either over or near us. The net change
in the airmass is nil, so min temps Sunday night should be similar
to tonight.

Low level southerly winds reach only to western ny pa by 12z
Monday... Still west winds over us at that time... Which means little
lift to be generated Sunday night. So the probability of precip
should be low. If the precipitation were to move in faster,
low level temperatures would support a mix with sleet and
freezing rain. But that scenario looks unlikely at this time.

Our forecast shows slight chance pops in western ma ct by 12z
Monday, and that may be overplaying the likelihood.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Highlights...

* light icing risk Mon early Tue across interior W focus high terrain
* heavy rain Tue with a period of strong winds possible on the coast
* significant flooding issues are not expected Tuesday
* dry blustery but turning colder Wed and especially by Thu fri
details...

Monday and Monday night...

main concern Mon into Mon night will be the potential for a period of
light icing across parts of interior southern new england with
the main focus being the worcester hills and east slopes of the
berkshires.

A cold air damming pattern appears to be setting up with canadian high
pressure in place. Meanwhile... Enough warm advection aloft
should result in light precipitation breaking out across the
region. Timing uncertain... But potential increases Monday
afternoon and night although can not rule out some light
precipitation arriving Monday morning. The bulk of the
precipitation that falls into Monday night should be light as
stronger synoptic scale forcing deeper moisture will remain to
our west. Mainly just light rain showers expected on the coastal
plain. The focus will be across interior southern new england
with the main area of concern the high terrain of the worcester
hills and east slopes of the berkshires. Some very minor light
snow sleet accums are possible at the onset, but main issue will
be light freezing rain light icing potential.

How much of the interior is impacted by a period of icing remains
uncertain. Most of the guidance indicates the surface high
fairly far north in canada and it is not really nosing down into
southern new england. Plus the fact that were dealing with an
unseasonably mild airmass currently in place for january that
needs to depart. Therefore... The main concern will be the high
terrain of the northern worcester hills and east slopes of the
berkshires. Temps likely to be a few degrees colder in this
region and most of the high resolution guidance including the
sref probabilities is targeting this region for the potential of
light icing. Icy roads and walkways certainly a possibility
especially later Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday...

the main surface low will be lifting across the great lakes. This
will induce a southerly LLJ 3+ standard deviations above normal
with pwats 2+ above normal. While some lingering freezing rain
can not be ruled out across the high terrain of ma early tue
am, any left over ice should change to rain. The main story will
then be a period of heavy rain given the anomalous ingredients
in place. As previous forecaster mentioned... There may even be
an isolated t-storm or two as showalter indices drop below zero.

In addition... Potent southerly low level jet may result in a
period of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts along the coastal plain. This
is especially true if high temps climb well into the 50s and
any convective elements are able to tap the stronger winds
aloft.

The fortunate thing is this system looks fairly progressive... So
most of the heavy rain will be ending Tuesday evening. Rainfall
amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.50 inches seem
reasonable... Which may lead to typical nuisance poor drainage
street given much of this probably falls in a 6 hour period.

However, the northeast river forecast center indicates that
while a few rivers may rise to action stage they are not
expecting any significant problems.

Wednesday through Friday...

transient trough sets up over the northeast allowing
colder weather to work back into the region... But it should be
dry as high pressure builds in from the west. High temps wed
will be well up into the 30s to the lower 40s on the coastal plain
although a bit windy. Colder Thu and Fri with highs mainly in
the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Saturday...

the high pressure system moves off the coast which should allow a
return flow of milder air into the region. Above normal temps
look to return and right now it looks like any forcing deeper
moisture will be to the west of our region. Therefore... Will
maintain a dry forecast for the first part of next weekend.

Aviation 23z Saturday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ...

tonight... High confidence.VFR with just a low risk of marginal
MVFR CIGS near daybreak across far western ma.

Sunday... High confidence.VFR. W-nw winds around 10 kt or less
as pressure gradient relaxes.

Sunday night... Moderate confidence.

Vfr. Increasing sky cover late at night.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance -shra, chance -fzra
across the interior high terrain.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy.

-shra. Pockets of -fzra possible across the interior with the
focus in the high terrain of ma.

Tuesday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
to 40 kt. Ra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday through Wednesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to
35 kt.

Thursday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

winds have dropped below gale force thresholds and this trend
will continue. Should see gusts drop below small craft
thresholds overnight from west to east. Seas also subsiding
tonight with the southern outer waters the last to drop below 5
feet near daybreak.

Sunday and Sunday night...

high pressure over the waters should provide fair weather with light
winds and seas below 5 feet. Clouds will increase overnight, but
support for any precipitation will remain well to our west during
the night.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday night: risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35
kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray.

Thursday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray.

Hydrology
A flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
anz231>235-237-251.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Sunday for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb frank
near term... Frank
short term... Wtb
long term... Frank
aviation... Wtb frank
marine... Wtb frank
hydrology... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi47 min 44°F 1012.4 hPa (+3.5)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 17 mi103 min 9.7 G 12 40°F 39°F1 ft1011.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi57 min WSW 14 G 18 43°F 40°F2 ft1012.2 hPa (+3.7)
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 33 mi47 min W 14 G 15 43°F 1011.7 hPa (+3.2)28°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 37 mi62 min W 4.1 31°F 1012 hPa24°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 43 mi41 min 43°F3 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA4 mi54 minWSW 610.00 miFair40°F27°F60%1012.3 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi53 minWSW 10 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F28°F58%1013.3 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA18 mi53 minWSW 510.00 miFair39°F27°F62%1013.1 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA22 mi51 minWSW 310.00 miFair40°F26°F58%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW4NW7NW5NW7W5NW5W44SW4NW5W3W54NW9W9NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Beverly, Massachusetts
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Beverly
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Sat -- 01:12 AM EST     8.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:19 PM EST     9.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:33 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.88.68.375.23.31.60.71.32.94.96.88.49.49.17.85.83.61.60.20.11.33.15.1

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:59 AM EST     -0.34 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:27 AM EST     0.43 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:09 PM EST     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:51 PM EST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.40.40.40.20-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.