Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salem, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:02PM Monday October 15, 2018 8:05 PM EDT (00:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:18PMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.gale warning in effect from midnight tonight to 7 am edt Tuesday...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly this evening. Patchy fog this evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the waters around midnight tonight. SW winds up to gale force are possible ahead of the front, then nw gales will blow behind it through Tue morning. Another cold front will push across the waters late Wed, followed by high pres on Thu. The high will build S of the waters on Fri. A frontal system approaches from the W on Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salem, MA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.53, -70.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbox 152301
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
701 pm edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will sweep across the region tonight and will be
accompanied by showers. A few gusty thunderstorms with heavy
rain are possible in ct, ri and southeast ma especially near
the south coast. Cooler and drier air moves in behind the
front late tonight and Tuesday with gusty northwest winds.

Another cold front moves through Wednesday. Behind the front,
the coldest air of this young fall season invades the area wed
night and thu. However the cold weather is short lived with
moderating temps Fri and Sat but a chance of showers ahead of a
cold front Saturday. Colder air returns Sunday and Monday behind
the frontal passage.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
7 pm update...

strong low level warm air advection continues across the region
with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Fairly impressive warm
sector for this time of year with dew pts up to 66 now at wst
and ewb. These warm moist temps and dew pts ease the low level
inversion and increase the risk for strong gusty winds with any
convection that develops later this evening along and ahead of
an approaching cold front. Low level jet is progged to increase
to about 60 kt at 925 mb. Thus won't take much for convection to
tap into these strong winds aloft. However much of the high res
guidance keeps bulk of convection along south coast or just
offshore. Although close enough to continue to highlight for a
risk of strong gusty winds along and near the south coast and
islands. Time frame would likely be somewhere 11 pm to 2 am.

Then behind the front models showing strong pres rise fall
couplet and soundings supporting gusts of 35-40 kt. Given leaves
remain fully leaved these wind speeds may be strong enough for
isolated tree damage power outages. Previous forecast captures
these details nicely so no major changes with this forecast
update. However given the low threat decided to highlight this
via a special weather statement. Previous discussion below.

==============================================================
robust mid level trough and shortwave tracks to the north
tonight with attending cold front moving through tonight. Deep
moisture plume combined with modest forcing for ascent will
bring a period of pre-frontal showers to sne tonight.

Interesting set up develops along the south coast within a few
hours around midnight just ahead of the front. Temps expected to
rise into the upper 60s across SE new eng this evening with
dewpoints into the low mid 60s. Models show modest elevated
instability surging north ahead of the front along the low level
jet and multiple hi-res sources indicate a convective line
developing near the south coast around midnight. With the back
edge of the low level jet across the region at this time, there
is strong low level shear helicity that develops so can't rule
out an isolated strong storm with rotation. Probability is low
but zon-zero so will have to monitor radar closely. Brief heavy
rainfall also possible given pwats increasing to 1.5+ inches.

Behind the cold front, clearing skies will develop with a brief
surge of strong W NW winds in the strong cold advection.

Soundings suggest potential for brief gusts 35-45 mph,
especially over higher elevations. Rising temps this evening,
then falling sharply overnight with morning lows upper 30s to
mid 40s for much of the region, a bit milder outer
cape islands.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Tuesday...

high pres builds to the south with dry W NW flow in place.

Column is quite dry with pwats dropping to near 0.25". Expect
lots of sunshine and gusty NW winds early will gradually
diminish. Highs will average mid 50s for much of the region,
but closer to 50 over higher terrain.

Tuesday night...

next digging trough and shortwave will be moving into the great
lakes late Tue night. Clear skies first half of the night should
give way to increasing clouds overnight but dry weather. Modest
gradient will lead to enough wind to limit radiational cooling,
so lows generally upper 30s to mid 40s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* unseasonably cold & blustery Wednesday night and Thursday
* moderating temperatures Friday and Saturday
* return to colder than normal temps Sunday and Monday
* next chance of widespread showers Sat sat night
synoptic overview and model preferences.

Gefs and ecens favor the following teleconnections - negative
epo positive pna which supports a high amplitude eastern
pacific western canada ridge. Likewise anomalous downstream trough
across ontario quebec and into the northeast. However with the nao
remaining positive these northern stream troughs and associated cold
surges will remain progressive. So typical fall pattern with large
temperature fluctuations thru the 7 day period. As for
precipitation, given the pattern remains progressive little
opportunity for cyclogenesis at this latitude with frontal passages
remaining progressive. Thus a few bouts of showers, Wednesday
(widely scattered to isolated) and more widespread showers sat-sat
night.

Wednesday...

pleasant weather to begin the day ahead of an approaching vigorous
northern stream short wave moving across the great lakes. 925 mb
temps warm to about +7c ahead of the front, this should support
highs into the low 60s except mid to upper 50s well inland
especially the high terrain. FROPA is late in the day. Given mid
level dry air and lack of surface convergence should preclude much
in the way of shower activity with this front. Perhaps a few
isolated showers well inland where upslope flow may enhance chances.

Otherwise dry weather prevails. Wednesday night strong cold air
advection with 850 mb temps falling to -8c to -10c by Thu morning!
this will drive temps down into the 30s regionwide and blustery nw
winds 15-30 mph yielding wind chills in the 20s!
Thursday...

anomalous cold airmass over the region with 850 mb temps starting
the day at -8c to 10c and only warming to about -7c by days end.

This will only support highs only in the 40s but gusty NW winds 20-
30 mph will yield wind chills in the 30s! To put this into
perspective, highs in the mid 40s Thu is more typical of early dec.

However avg high for this time of year should be from the upper 50s
(worcester) to the lower 60s from hartford-providence to boston. In
fact our expected highs Thu (m40s) is colder than our avg night time
low temp.

Friday...

upper air pattern remains progressive so anomalous cold trough exits
with rising heights warming temps aloft. Some warm advection clouds
in the morning should give way to sunshine the remainder of the day.

Southwest flow results in 925 mb temps recovering to about +4c to
+5c by Fri afternoon should support highs well into the 50s, a
noticeable warmup from thu.

Weekend...

another robust northern stream short wave and attending cold front
approach sat. Ensembles and deterministic runs in good agreement
with FROPA sometime late sat-sat night. This trough has more
moisture to work with than Wednesday's trough so showers should be
more widespread than midweek. Low level WAA should result in highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday. Colder and drier Sunday in
the post frontal airmass. Not quite as cold as Thu but 850 mb temps
lowering to about -4c to -6c will support colder than normal
conditions with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It will feel
colder given gusty NW winds.

Early next week...

ensembles and deterministic guidance keep high amplitude long wave
trough over the northeast and great lakes. Thus temps at or cooler
than normal appear likely. Can't rule out isolated diurnal showers
given cyclonic cold flow aloft but mainly dry weather prevails.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

7 pm update...

no major changes from previous tafs and discussion. Earlier
discussion below.

=================================================================
through tonight... Moderate confidence.

Widespread MVFR CIGS developing through the afternoon with areas
of ifr in the west. These conditions continue into this evening
with showers moving through from west to east. May see some
heavier showers and a possible t-storm with gusty wind and heavy
rain near the south coast 03-06z. Then becomingVFR overnight
with clearing skies. SW gusts to 25 kt near the coast into this
evening, then a period of W NW gusts to 25-35 kt developing
behind the cold front after midnight. Areas of llws possible
this evening over CAPE islands.

Tuesday... High confidence.

Vfr. NW gusts to 25 kt early along the immediate coast, then
diminishing wind.

Tuesday night... High confidence.VFR.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate-high confidence.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Thursday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Saturday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

gusty SW winds shift to W NW behind the cold front, mainly
after midnight. Post-frontal winds expected to gust to 35-40 kt
for a few hours and gale warnings continue. Vsbys may briefly
be reduced in showers and patchy fog and there is a chance of a
t-storm over south coastal waters around midnight.

Tuesday...

nw gusts 25-35 kt early will gradually diminish through the day
and become W with speeds below SCA during the afternoon. Rough
seas subsiding through the day. Good vsbys.

Tuesday night...

westerly winds increasing overnight with gusts to 25 kt
developing. Good vsbys.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate to high
Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Thursday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Climate
Record low maximum temperatures for Thursday october 18
bos 45 in 1898
orh 36 in 1989
bdl 44 in 2009
pvd 46 in 1939

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from midnight tonight to 9 am edt Tuesday for
anz231-232-251.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 7 am edt Tuesday for
anz230-233>235-237.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 5 am edt Tuesday for
anz236.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 9 am edt Tuesday for
anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc nocera
near term... Kjc nocera
short term... Kjc
long term... Nocera
aviation... Kjc nocera
marine... Kjc nocera
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi36 min 66°F 1008.8 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 17 mi62 min SSW 18 G 21 62°F 60°F4 ft1007.7 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi76 min S 18 G 21 64°F 59°F3 ft1009.1 hPa (-3.4)62°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 33 mi66 min SSW 23 G 25 61°F 1008.2 hPa (-3.8)61°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 37 mi81 min SW 2.9 61°F 60°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 43 mi30 min 56°F5 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi76 min SSW 21 G 25 63°F 3 ft1010.4 hPa (-3.8)62°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
-12
PM
11
AM
12
PM
-12
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
N1
W1
N2
S1
W1
NW1
NE1
W1
NW4
NW3
N2
NW1
W1
--
SW5
SW5
S14
SW10
G14
SW13
G17
SW16
SW15
SW8
1 day
ago
W5
W5
W6
W5
G8
N1
W5
W5
NW5
NW5
W4
G7
W4
G7
W5
G8
W7
G11
W5
G8
W5
G9
W6
G10
W7
G14
SW3
G9
SW9
W5
G10
SW4
W3
2 days
ago
NW5
G9
NW6
G9
SW2
W4
W4
W4
NW3
NW3
NW5
NW4
G7
NW5
W4
G8
SW5
W4
G8
W7
W4
G8
W5
G8
NW5
G9
NW7
G11
W6
W5
G9
NW4
G8
NW4
NW1

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA4 mi13 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast65°F60°F84%1007.2 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi12 minSSW 1510.00 miOvercast67°F61°F81%1008.2 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA18 mi12 minSSW 710.00 miLight Rain66°F60°F81%1008.1 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA22 mi10 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast64°F60°F87%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrW5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4SE8S9S7S9S9
G18
S9SW7SW11
G18
SW8
1 day agoCalmW3W4CalmW3W5W7W5SW3W3SW4W5W5W6W5W10
G14
W8W7W10W6SW6SW6CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW4NW7W5CalmW3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW4SW6NW4W4W5W6W7W9W8NW11
G16
W8W5SW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Beverly, Massachusetts
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Beverly
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:26 AM EDT     8.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:18 AM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:37 PM EDT     9.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:56 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.23.85.77.48.38.37.35.94.22.61.61.82.94.467.78.88.98.16.74.93.11.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:06 PM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.20.30.30.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.30.30.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.