Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salem, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:18PM Sunday November 19, 2017 3:50 AM EST (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:26AMMoonset 6:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 117 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 117 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will continue to strengthen as it tracks across the saint lawrence river valley by Sunday afternoon. A strong cold front sweeps across the waters Sun afternoon. S to sw gales ahead of the front and W to nw gales behind the front Sun night into Monday. High pres then builds across the waters Tue followed by another cold front moving across new england Wed. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salem, MA
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location: 42.53, -70.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190632
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
132 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
Strengthening low pressure sweeps NE across the E great lakes
ahead of which widespread rain with embedded heavier showers,
possible thunderstorms, along with strong to damaging winds are
forecast through Sunday night. Breezy and cooler conditions for
Monday. Moderate temperatures on Tuesday followed by scattered
showers on Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through. Chilly but
dry for thanksgiving and into Friday.

Near term through today
1 am update...

no major changes from previous forecast. Earlier discussion
below.

===============================================================
*** strong winds, heavy downpours & localized wind damage
possible late tonight & Sunday ***
quick review of new 00z mesoscale guidance including the 00z
nam arw nmmb hrrr and hrefv2 continue to support current
forecast and headlines. Weather theme remains the same, periods
of rain overnight with heavier convective elements developing
ahead approaching cold front roughly 10z 5am thru 16z 11am.

May not be enough instability for thunder during this period
but all mesoscale guid has convective elements in the form of
heavier showers. This may be when our greatest wind threat
occurs as shallow but robust updrafts and precip drag transport
strong winds aloft to the surface.

Low level jet 925 mb peaks at 65 kt around 12z over south
coast including CAPE cod and the islands. This also coincides
with the period of strongest forcing for ascent as lfq of 130 kt
enhances QG forcing and combines with frontal convergence from
approaching cold front. Dew pts rising to 55-60 during this time
provides a few hundred joules of cape. Low and mid level lapse
rates are marginal at 6c km but this maybe sufficient to support
a broken fine line of low top convection 10z-16z. Nonetheless,
headlines remain unchanged.

Previous discussion...

tonight...

* highlights...

- strong to damaging ssw winds along s-coastal ri and ma
- widespread rain with embedded heavier downpours, possible t'storms
- with t'storms, potential aid in mixing down strong, damaging winds
* overview...

strong to damaging southwesterly wind threats developing out ahead
of a deepening area of low pressure across the E great lakes, the
trailing cold front of which sweeping S new england is the focus of
widespread rain with embedded heavier showers and the possibility of
thunderstorms.

Nose of strong warm air advection (waa) within atmospheric sounding
profiles around h8, ushered by a well agreed upon 60-80 mph SW jet
around h925-8, lending to a steep lapse rates aloft. Attendant low-
level frontal convergence lift with the cold front beneath robust
mid-level vortmax, qg-forcing, and the left front quadrant h3 jet,
subsequent deep layer ascent in an area of high shear as the h5 trof
undergoes its negative tilt obtaining cyclonic curvature. Conveyor
belt motions enhancing with the ingest of a continental sub-tropical
airmass (ct) with h925-7 thetae exceeding 320k, surface dewpoints
surging to around 50 to 60f, especially SE new england, as drier
air impinges from the sw, sharpening, as the cold conveyor belt
drives in from the NW behind the h85-7 mid-level low, descending.

Thermal gradients tightening with time.

All coming together shortly after midnight towards the early morning
hours Sunday, both strong SW jet and strong dynamics. Out ahead of a
continued deepening surface low down to 980 mb across the E great
lakes towards NE vt.

* threats and impacts (in priority)...

winds...

strong to damaging wind threat is apparent. However the challenge is
in regards to WAA around h8, increasing the low-level inversion more
so over the labrador current looping down off the coast of the outer
cape and nantucket. It's here that mixing may not be as prevalent. A
lot of model consensus sounding profiles and ensemble means capture
this fairly well. However, elsewhere mean surface to h9 lapse rates
average around 6-7 c km with consensus model forecast winds at
roughly 0.5 km agl (just above 1500 feet) 60 to 70 mph.

Based on wind climatology for SW cases along with forecast rules of
thumb, high wind warnings have been posted along the s-coast of ri
and ma including the islands for tonight with wind advisories just
to the adjacent n. Storm warnings over the southern waters including
narragansett bay.

There are moderate probability signals from ncar and ec ensembles
that do justify such headlines, including the href signaling a
decent probability of sustained 10m 35 mph winds along the S coast.

Strong to damaging SW wind gusts forecast, considering that some
trees still have leaves, there are potential impacts of downed trees
and or tree limbs possibly resulting in power outages, structural
damage, and or blocked roadways.

Rain and convection...

undoubtedly widespread rain with embedded heavy downpours. Initially
with the warm front this evening, perhaps a lull around midnight,
then along the cold front thereafter into Sunday morning.

Depending on parcel lift, there is potential at various levels for
some weak instability up to 100-200 j kg, especially within the low
levels as colder air undercuts right along the cold front. Given the
shear and strong lifting and ascent mechanisms, with any instability
can see storm organize. And along focusing boundaries, particularly
the cold front and leading nose of the dry slot, could see fine-line
convection develop. Rumbles of thunder along with heavier rain, can
not rule out mechanical mix-down precipitation drag of faster winds
aloft to the surface aiding in the potential for strong to damaging
wind gusts. No particular area of focus, however if the 3 km NAM is
correct, could see clusters of heavier downpours, possible thunder-
storms, with perhaps a fine-line along the nose of the dry slot
going into Sunday.

Fast moving, precipitable waters nudging towards 1.5 inches, around
+2 standard deviations per NCEP sref, looking at a widespread 0.5 to
0.75 inches of rain with possible amounts up around an inch in spots
(higher confidence along the S W slopes of high terrain). Most of it
falling around midnight into the morning hours, should be able to
handle it, do not perceive a flooding threat.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Monday
Late morning Sunday into Sunday night...

* highlights...

- post-frontal winds W NW driving in colder air
- widespread 40 to 45 mph wind gusts forecast
- areas of greatest impact across the high terrain, along the coast
* discussion...

strong post-frontal W NW winds across S new england with widespread
40 to 45 mph gusts. In response to the surface low deepening down to
975 mb into SE canada, well agreed upon by the consensus of forecast
guidance, expecting a strong pressure couplet especially across n
new england with pressure rises on the backside of the system up as
high as 3 mb hr. Gradient isallobaric wind response drives W nw
flow with the top of the mix layer up to h85, dry adiabatic lapse
rates, subsequent of under-cutting colder air, where the top of the
mixed layer winds average 45 to 55 mph (40 to 50 kts), a few of the
models suggesting upwards of 60 mph.

Based on wind climatology for NW cases along with forecast rules of
thumb, wind advisories have been posted for all of S new england
except where a high wind warning is in place along the s-coast.

Corroborating signals from both cips analogs and ec ensemble that
support such headlines.

Again, with strong to damaging NW wind gusts forecast, considering
that some trees still have leaves, there are potential impacts of
downed trees and or tree limbs possibly resulting in power outages,
structural damage, and or blocked roadways.

Otherwise, drier air surging in aloft behind the quick sweeping cold
front, will see an end to shower activity rather abruptly during the
morning hours. With the blustery W NW winds and cold airmass pouring
in, across the warmer great lakes, the lake effect machine will be
ongoing and could see some of that energy reach far enough E with
the mean flow to impact N W portions of ma and ct with some snow
and or rain shower activity, 2m temperature dependent. If snow, some
light accumulations are possible, mainly for the high terrain of
the berkshires.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
* highlights...

- blustery NW winds on Monday
- moderating temperatures Tuesday and into Wednesday
- dry but chilly for thanksgiving day
* pattern overview confidence...

building high pressure over baja california will push the ridge into
the western CONUS for next week. This will keep the eastern half of
the country in a trough til perhaps the end of the week. Overall 12z
guidance is in general agreement, however guidance spread occurs
with each potential shortwave and frontal systems that pass through.

Trended the forecast towards the UKMET and 12z ec as the GFS appears
to be too robust within this pattern set-up, ESP towards the end of
the week.

Details...

Monday into Tuesday... High confidence.

Cold airmass continues to remain overhead on Monday as high pressure
to the south begins to build. Departing shortwave from the north
will increase the pressure gradient and thus anticipate gusty
westerly winds to continue during the day. Anticipate a mostly dry
day, but could see ocean effect showers across the open waters.

Mid-level ridge will pass through overnight into Tuesday as winds
switch and WAA returns across southern new england. Temperatures
will warm within this southwesterly wind as 50's return back to the
region. Approaching cold front from the west will result in a
developing LLJ with 925mb winds reaching 40-45 kts. Once again
another windy evening for Tuesday.

Wednesday into thanksgiving... Moderate confidence.

Approaching cold front from the great lakes will result in a mild
start on Wednesday. Depending on the available moisture, scattered
showers may develop along and or ahead of the front. Both the ec and
cmc have continued to show precip chances while the GFS keeps the
bulk of the moisture offshore. Will continue to ride with chc pops
until guidance spread decreases.

Behind the front, CAA will move back into the region for Thursday.

Continue with the dry trend for the later half of the day as the 12z
gfs deterministic run appears to be an outlier with its developing
coastal low. Most of the GEFS also keeps the developing low well
offshore like the cmc. This developing low is also not supported by
the UKMET or the ec. Therefore anticipate a chilly day as temps fall
below seasonable with dry conditions.

Friday and beyond... Increasing confidence.

Increasing cloud cover overnight as secondary cold front swings
through. However, temps will begin to moderate as pattern turns a
bit more zonal. A few shortwaves will push through next weekend but
timing and exact impact remain uncertain at this time.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

1 am update...

thru 17z noon...

widespread MVFR with areas of ifr across the interior in showers
with embedded heavy downpours. Strongest gusty ssw winds 09z-16z
from west to east along the south coast of ma ri. Strongest
winds may occur in these heavy downpours. Elsewhere, llws thru
15z-16z, then low level jet moves offshore.

After 17z...

cold front exits the area with a wind shift from ssw to wnw with
gusts up to 40 kt. Any leftover MVFR at midday will quickly
improve toVFR and dry weather. The only exception may be in the
hills of western ma ct where MVFR is possible behind the front.

Tonight...

vfr CIGS sct-bkn040 with possible -shsn from lake effect snow
showers coming across ny state into western ma ct and possibly
ri. Wnw winds will remain gusty up to 35 kt.

Kbos terminal...

MVFR with periods of showers, embedded heavier downpours thru
about 16z. Ssw winds may briefly gusts up to 40 kt in the
heavier showers. Llws til 16z then becomingVFR as a cold front
sweeps across the terminal with a wind shift from ssw to wnw
with gusts up to 40 kt.

Kbdl terminal...

mainly ifr but trending toward MVFR. Periods of showers with
locally heavy downpours. Light winds becoming ssw toward
daybreak. Although winds may become gusty in heavier showers.

Strong cold frontal passage around 15z with wind shift from ssw
to wnw. MVFR improving toVFR with the wind shift.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Monday night through Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thanksgiving day:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

* highlights...

- storm warnings posted for the S waters
- gales all other waters
* discussion...

storm center deepening across the E great lakes with a central
pressure down to 975 mb as it lifts into SE canada Sunday night.

A trailing cold front ahead of which widespread rain is expected
with embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms, resulting
in visibility restrictions on the waters, as well as strong sw
flow with sustained winds around 20 to 30 kts, as high as 35 kts,
with gusts potentially exceeding 50 kts, again the greater threat
over the S waters.

Behind the cold front, winds shifting W NW and remaining blustery.

Gusts 40 to 45 kts possible.

Waves building 10 to 15 feet throughout, can not rule out as high
as 20 feet during the height of the winds along the S SE waters.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Monday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Local rough seas.

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Thanksgiving day: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory from noon today to 10 pm est this evening for
ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind warning until 10 am est this morning for maz020>024.

Wind advisory until 10 am est this morning for maz017>019.

Wind advisory from noon today to 10 pm est this evening for
maz002>019-026.

Ri... High wind warning until 10 am est this morning for riz006>008.

Wind advisory until 10 am est this morning for riz002>005.

Wind advisory from noon today to 10 pm est this evening for
riz001>005.

Marine... Storm warning until 10 am est this morning for anz232>234-236.

Gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for anz230.

Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz231-250-251-254.

Storm warning until noon est today for anz235-237-255-256.

Synopsis... Sipprell evt
near term... Nocera sipprell correia
short term... Sipprell
long term... Dunten correia
aviation... Nocera dunten correia
marine... Dunten sipprell correia


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 17 mi107 min SSE 12 G 12 53°F 50°F2 ft994.7 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi61 min S 16 G 19 56°F 51°F2 ft993.2 hPa (-4.5)
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 33 mi51 min SSE 22 G 23 51°F 993.1 hPa (-4.9)50°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 37 mi66 min E 2.9 49°F 994 hPa49°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 43 mi45 min 52°F4 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA4 mi58 minSSE 59.00 miOvercast54°F53°F97%992.8 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi57 minS 1110.00 miOvercast55°F53°F93%993.4 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA18 mi57 minS 510.00 miOvercast56°F51°F84%993.6 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA22 mi1.9 hrsS 810.00 miLight Rain52°F50°F93%995.4 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4CalmSW4W5W34S7S9S4S5S8SE6SE4SE5SE6SE7SE8SE6SE6S5SE6S9S5
1 day agoNW11W14
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NW12NW7NW6W6W7NW5NW4NW7NW9NW9NW8Calm
2 days agoS4SE8SE8SE14SE14
G20
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SE8S6CalmCalmCalmW3W11
G17
NW4W6W6W9W9
G15
W8W9W9

Tide / Current Tables for Beverly, Massachusetts
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Beverly
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Sun -- 05:13 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:30 AM EST     9.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:29 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.87.863.91.80.71.12.44.36.58.59.79.78.76.84.52.10.3-0.10.82.44.46.68.3

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:23 AM EST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:47 AM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:45 PM EST     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:29 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:14 PM EST     0.42 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.10.20.40.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.300.30.40.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.