Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salem, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:13PM Sunday December 16, 2018 10:46 PM EST (03:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:47PMMoonset 1:07AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 912 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Rest of tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 6 ft. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft, except 6 to 7 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft, except 4 to 5 ft at the outer harbor entrance.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft, except up to 5 ft at the outer harbor entrance.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 912 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Storm center will sweep just offshore of nantucket late tonight into Mon morning. Widespread rain with gale force winds will surround the storm. Behind the storm, cold air will race in along with blustery nw winds late Mon into Mon night with potential gusts in excess of 40 kts. Gales lingering Tue, dampening Tue night into Wed as high pres sweeps over the waters. SW flow for late Wed into Thu with moderating temperatures. A storm system will approach southern new england from the southwest Fri which will bring a slug of rain along with unseasonably muggy conditions. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salem, MA
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location: 42.53, -70.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170305
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1005 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks south of new england tonight, then exiting
out to sea Monday. Any leftover light snow and or rain Monday
morning gives way to dry weather by midday. Expect windy and
much colder conditions on Tuesday with bitter wind chill values.

Large high pressure will build east across the region Wednesday,
then offshore late this week with milder temperatures returning.

Low pressure will move northeast across the appalachians late
this week, bringing a slug of heavy rainfall late Thursday night
through Friday along with gusty southerly winds. The low will
push into eastern canada next weekend, with a return to seasonal
temperatures.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
1000 pm update...

latest spotter reports indicate wet snow reaching the ground
across the higher terrain towards the berkshires. Radar data
indicates the melting layer was between about 3,500-8,000 ft
agl. At the surface, winds have turned to be from the N or ne,
which will start to draw colder air farther south. Expecting the
trend of wet snow to continue through the late evening. Now it
is a question of how long the precipitation will linger over a
particular area. Net result was to increase snowfall totals for
the overnight across the higher terrain.

Otherwise, brought temperatures back in line with observed
trends this evening. Still expecting precipitation to end from
w to E after midnight.

Previous discussion...

*** accumulating snow likely tonight especially high terrain ***
all guidance has deep layer moisture and stronger lift
advecting north across southern new england through 05z. Ptype
will be rain given warm nose aloft and above freezing surface
temps. The warm air aloft should slowly erode from strong
upward vertical motion (dynamical cooling) and diabatic cooling
from melting snow in this layer. Overall trend will be for the
rain to mix change to sleet, then snow across western and
central ma, but likely holding off until almost the end of the
event (toward morning) from hfd-pvd-bos with ptype likely
remaining all rain along and near the coast.

However this is a difficult forecast high uncertainty for the
following reasons ...

1) how quickly does the changeover occur? Warm nose aloft is
pronounced so should take some time. However models suggest
these precip bands will be fairly robust with strong lift in the
snow growth region. This may result in a quicker changeover as
the euro and some of the href members indicate. So how much qpf
is lost in the transition before the changeover is all snow?
2) once precip changes to all snow surface temperatures are
marginal for accumulations, so will greater precip intensity
result in more melting cooling and lower surface temps?
given a lot of mesoscale processes have to come together for a
significant snowfall tonight our forecast is more conservative
with expected accumulations ranging from a coating to 2 inches,
with highest amounts across the high terrain of the east slopes
of the berks into northern worcester county. However will have
to watch how these bands evolve this evening and monitor
mesoscale guid and of course observations.

Headlines... Will leave winter weather advisories up for
western-central ma for rain changing to sleet ice pellets then
all snow later this evening. Removed hartford county as the
greater threat for sleet snow is farther north into ma.

Elsewhere, spotty light rain becoming steadier and heavier this
evening along with NE winds increasing to 40 mph across southeast
ma.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Late afternoon update...

Monday...

any leftover morning comma-head light rain and or snow will come to
an end as vertically stacked low exits seaward. Short wave ridging
behind this departing system and next approaching short wave will
result in partial sunshine from late morning into the afternoon.

Seasonal temps with highs in the upper 30s high terrain to low 40s
elsewhere.

Monday night...

vigorous northern stream short wave moves across during the evening
hours. Not much moisture with this feature so not expecting much
more than scattered snow showers or flurries. More importantly
behind this short wave a blast of cold air overspreads the region.

Temps will plummet into the teens and 20s but with a gusty NW wind
25-35 mph (highest CAPE cod and islands) expect cold wind chills
in the single digits and teens.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* cold and blustery late Monday through Tuesday night
* coldest conditions Wednesday morning
* mild temperatures return late this week
* heavy rainfall at times late Thursday night and Friday, with
potential for flooding
* patchy light precipitation lingers across higher terrain next
weekend with temperatures returning to seasonal normals
overview...

overall mid level steering pattern remains amplified but
progressive across north america through next weekend. Cutoff
h5 low pres moves out of the maritimes to newfoundland during
Tuesday, with shot of arctic air working across the region on
the n-nw wind flow aloft. This will not last, though, as h5
ridge builds across the great lakes, then shifts east through
mid to late this week. 12z model suite and ensembles continue to
signal digging long wave trough across the central u.S., with
cutoff low forming across the southern mississippi valley around
thu night. This will allow responding s-n ridge to build across
the eastern seaboard, which will bring unseasonably mild temps
late this week.

Surface low develops across the southern appalachians thu, then
works ne, tracking well W of the region. Will see deep moisture
plume work up the coast, which could bring an area of heavy
rainfall late Thu night and fri. This system does progress, so
will see a return to drier conditions and more seasonal
temperatures by late next weekend.

Details...

Tuesday and Wednesday...

as the low exits to the maritimes, a weak trough pushes offshore
early Tuesday. Cold air works S out of the arctic circle as n-s
oriented high pressure builds from the great lakes to hudson
bay. H85 temps drop to -13c to -16c Tuesday morning through
midday. Will also see increasing pres gradient as the low bombs
out S of nova scotia, potentially down to sub 980 hpa center
during tue. Could see sustained NW winds around 25-35 mph with
gusts possibly up to around 45 mph, with the best gradient
across central and eastern areas. Wind advisory headlines may be
needed for a time on Tuesday.

Winds will slowly diminish Tue night as the large high across
the great lakes slowly but steadily shifts E through wed. Expect
dry conditions with Wednesday's temps close to seasonal
normals, about 5 to 10 degrees milder than on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...

the large high builds across the eastern seaboard Wednesday,
then shifts offs the coast to the western atlantic early
Thursday. Clouds will increase from w-e during the midday and
afternoon hours on Thursday with temps running around 5 or so
degrees above normal. May see leading edge of light rain moving
across western areas by the evening commute.

Thursday night through Friday night...

with the meridional long wave trough from the great lakes to
the mid gulf coast, will see southerly wind flow in place.

Noting deep moisture transport flow in place, with pwat plume
working northward late Thu night and especially fri. Pwat values
will run up to 3 to 4 sd above normal across central and
eastern areas on fri, so will see a slug of heavy rainfall move
across. Current forecast suggests rainfall around 1.2 to 1.6
inches from late Thu night into early Fri night, highest along s
coastal areas during fri. Could also see gusty S winds along
the immediate S coast during fri, though noting inversion may
not allow low level mixing to mix down the strong gusts, with
e-se winds on the order of 40-50 kt at h925 to h85. Still could
see some gusts up to 25-30 kt for a time fri.

Could also see some elevated convection at times across central
and eastern areas during fri. Noting tq values running in the
upper teens, which could signal some thunder across central and
eastern areas.

Precip should taper off Fri night from sw-ne as the low lifts n
to quebec by 12z sat. Could see some light showers linger into
early sat, which could mix with some snow toward daybreak across
the higher inland terrain.

Saturday and Sunday...

as the low lifts across eastern canada, will still see some
lingering light rain across N mass to the E slopes of the
berkshires, which will change to light snow toward sunset. By
Sunday, will see mainly dry conditions and seasonal
temperatures. Could still see some snow showers lingering across
n central and W mass.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... Moderate confidence.

0300z update...

tonight...

MVFR-ifr CIGS vsbys, with lifr CIGS across portions of the s
coast, CAPE cod and the islands. Conditions should lower to
mainly ifr CIGS MVFR-ifr vsbys across most areas by around 05z.

Ptype mostly rain, but will change over to sleet and or snow
through the overnight across NW ct, W and central mass. Snow
accumulations possible on higher elevation runways, like korh.

Expect n-ne wind gusts up to 30-35 kt across SE mass.

Monday...

any leftover light snow inland, light rain along and near the
coast ends 12z-15z. Ifr-lifr eastern ma and MVFR elsewhere
improving to MVFRVFR by 18z along with dry weather. Gusty north
winds up to 35 kt over CAPE cod and islands at 12z diminish and
shift to the NW by 18z.

Monday night...

marginal MVFR-vfr but dry weather except MVFR outer CAPE cod in
scattered snow showers. Gusty NW winds 25-35 kt.

Kbos terminal...

spotty light rain becoming more widespread and steadier heavier
after 22z. Rain may briefly end as a mix of rain snow late
tonight very early Mon morning. Temps should remain above
freezing so runways will remain wet.

Kbdl terminal...

spotty light rain becoming more widespread and steadier heavier
after 21z. Rain mixes or changes to snow overnight but little
if any accumulation.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with areas gusts to 35 kt.

Wednesday:VFR.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance ra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Ra
likely, chance fzra.

Friday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with local gusts to
30 kt. Ra likely.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

Late afternoon update...

tonight... Gale center tracks over or near the 40n 70w benchmark
tonight yielding NE gales across most of the waters. Rain
reduces vsby.

Monday... Gale center exits across georges bank with NE gales in
the morning becoming subgale midday and shifting to the nw.

Vsby improves with the wind shift as rain shield moves offshore.

Monday night... Nw gales likely along with possible freezing
spray.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rain likely.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Monday for maz002>004-
008>011-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until midnight est tonight for anz231>235-237-255-
256.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Monday for anz230-236.

Gale warning until 7 am est Monday for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Monday for anz251.

Synopsis... Nocera evt
near term... Belk nocera evt
short term... Nocera
long term... Evt
aviation... Nocera evt
marine... Nocera evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi47 min 40°F 1008.8 hPa (-3.6)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 17 mi103 min ENE 23 G 29 41°F 45°F10 ft1009.3 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi57 min NE 25 G 31 42°F 45°F9 ft1008.1 hPa (-3.6)41°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 33 mi47 min NE 24 G 28 40°F 1010.2 hPa (-2.5)39°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 37 mi62 min NNE 4.1 35°F 34°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 43 mi39 min 46°F11 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi57 min NE 25 G 31 42°F 10 ft1007.1 hPa (-3.9)40°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA4 mi54 minNE 12 G 193.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F36°F86%1009.5 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi53 minNE 18 G 243.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy41°F37°F89%1009.3 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA18 mi53 minN 117.00 miLight Rain38°F33°F83%1011.3 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA22 mi51 minNNE 13 G 206.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F37°F96%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5SW9SW9SW7SW6SW8SW5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW6W5W7NW10N6N6N5N7NE6NE10NE5N5N5
2 days agoCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW6CalmSW3SE9S5SE4CalmS4S4S5S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Beverly, Massachusetts
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Beverly
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Sun -- 12:06 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:36 AM EST     8.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:39 AM EST     1.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:54 PM EST     8.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.64.15.67.18.28.37.56.14.631.91.72.53.75.16.67.88.27.66.44.83.21.7

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:06 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:40 AM EST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:25 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:01 AM EST     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:07 PM EST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:18 PM EST     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.300.30.30.30.30.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.