Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castleton-on-Hudson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:34PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 12:25 AM EST (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 11:34PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castleton-on-Hudson, NY
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location: 42.53, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 140239
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
939 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Colder and blustery conditions are expected tonight with
some lake effect snow showers, especially for western parts of the
area. It will be continued cold and breezy on Wednesday with some
additional lake effect snow showers and flurries. Temperatures will
be frigid Wednesday night into Thursday morning before another storm
system brings widespread snow, rain and sleet to the region for late
Thursday into Friday morning.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 935 pm est... Lake effect activity evolving off lake
ontario which is impacting portions of the western mohawk valley
and schoharie valley. This trend should continue as cold
advection remains across the open waters. Impressive 00z
sounding from kbuf with very steep low level lapse rates below
the high inversion level near h750! Regional radar and ny
mesonet web cams show occasional bursts of snow moving across
the western mohawk valley and schoharie valley but rather
transitory in nature. Current forecast is in good shape. Boundary
layer winds around 320 degrees is forecast to back a bit
overnight. This will be due to the approach and passage of the
mid and upper level trough axis which should brings band(s) of
snow showers further north overnight into the mohawk valley,
perhaps the capital region and upslope areas of the central
taconics and berkshires. So main update was to the sky coverage
as combination of thick higher clouds under a sct-bkn stratus
deck below per GOES 16 diff-channels and nighttime microphysics.

Prev disc... Departing coastal storm is located over eastern new
england, while a secondary cold front is just crossing across
the area this afternoon. Mrms imagery shows a few lingering rain
showers or sprinkles associated with this frontal boundary, but
best moisture has shifted east of the region.

Behind this front, strong cold air advection will be ongoing for
this evening into tonight. 850 hpa temps are expected to fall as
low as -11 to -17 degrees c across the region by daybreak
Wednesday. The combination of the good mixing thanks to colder
air aloft and decent pressure gradient in place will allow for
gusty northwest winds tonight. Some winds may exceed 30 mph
especially in areas of channeled flow and across the higher
terrain.

Meanwhile, the cold air aloft passing over the warm water of
lake ontario (glerl lake surface temps are around 49 f) will
allow bands of lake-effect snow to develop. With a northwest
flow in place, the best accumulation with this setup is
generally across central new york. However, (as shown in cam
guidance), some pieces towards the end of the lake-bands look to
reach into the mohawk and schoharie valleys, helderbergs and
northeastern catskills tonight, especially for after midnight.

Based on cstar inland extent research, this setup would be
favorable for pieces of the bands to reach as far as 170 miles
from the lakeshore, so the capital region, mid hudson valley and
taconics could all see a brief snow shower or two overnight.

Cams suggests to occur by late tonight, so will include at least
slight to chc pops across these areas, with a light dusting
possible. Areas further northwest across the western mohawk
valley could see a few inches of snow, depending on quickly the
bands move.

Temps overnight look to fall into the 20s across the entire
region. With the gusty winds, it will feel even colder as well.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
Some lake effect snow showers may still be ongoing across our
area for Wednesday morning, but by the activity, most of the
snow showers should be confined west of the region across cny.

Strong shortwave trough will be passing by to the north and
temps will continue to be very cold aloft for mid-november
(around 3 std below normal according to the naefs). The good
mixing will continue to allow for gusty winds during peak
heating mixing, with some gusts over 30 mph at times. Despite
some Sun in place, temps will only reach the mid 20s to mid 30s
for most spots for highs.

Dry and frigid weather is expected for Wed night into Thursday
morning, with mainly clear skies and light to calm winds as high
pressure passes over the region. Good radiational cooling is
expected, especially in areas with snow cover. Lows look to fall
into the teens, and some single digits are possible across the
high terrain of the adirondacks and southern greens.

After a cold and clear start, skies will gradually increase
during the day Thursday, as the next storm system approaches.

This will be a large cutoff low over the mississippi valley that
will be heading towards the ohio valley and mid-atlantic states.

As this occurs, a rapidly developing surface storm will form
along the eastern seaboard of the mid-atlantic states and head
northeast for Thursday night into Friday morning.

Plenty of cold air will be in place at the start of this storm.

Despite fighting some dry air at low levels, isentropic lift
should allow for a period of snowfall to move from south to
north after sunset on Thursday and continue into Thursday night.

Depending on the exact track of the developing storm, some
warming temps around 800-850 hpa could allow for precip to
change over to sleet freezing rain or plain rain by late
Thursday night into Friday morning, although the greatest threat
for this looks to be for areas south and east of the capital
region. Steady precip looks to continue into Friday morning
thanks to nearby coastal storm. Have included some mixed precip
or rain for southern eastern areas, as well as valley areas
towards the end of the storm, as boundary layer temps warm
during the day on Friday.

Although the models show some variability of exact qpf, there is
some consistency amongst the 12z nam12 ECMWF fv3-gfs, while the
gfs and some members of the SREF are much lighter with precip
amounts (thanks to a farther east track of the surface storm).

For now, will favor heavier precip solutions. This would results
in a widespread 2 to 6 inches of snow across the area, with
some locally higher totals in the high terrain (especially
across southern vt). We will continue to mention this storm in
our hwo. Precip should end by early afternoon Friday, with a
few lingering rain or snow showers (especially northern and high
terrain areas). Temps look to mainly be in the 20s to near 30 for
thurs night and rising into the 30s for Friday.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Friday night and Saturday... Cool and breezy conditions will build
into the region as the cyclone departs to the northeast with some
lake enhanced snow showers over the adirondacks. Wnw flow will favor
some upslope snow showers over the adirondacks and southern green
mountains of vermont resulting in light snow accumulations under an
inch. Lingering isolated snow showers will persist through Saturday
with moist cyclonic wnw flow overhead. Lows Friday night will be in
the mid 20s to mid 30s and highs on Saturday will be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s.

Sunday through Tuesday... Deterministic guidance begins to deviate
greatly starting Sunday and continuing through the end of the long
term period. The past couple runs of the GFS and canadian have been
hinting at a clipper-like low progressing through the region on
Sunday while the ECMWF has high pressure building overhead. Subtle
differences within the mean longwave trough seem to be resulting in
large differences in the surface pressure fields and tangible
weather. Regardless, multiple pieces of energy look to break off a
zonally oriented PV streamer, resulting in weak forcing for ascent
in regions of high pressure advection on the 1.5 pvu surface, and
multiple chances for widely scattered rain and snow showers over the
region.

Some guidance suggests the potential for lake-effect snow over the
adirondacks and western mohawk valley Monday into Tuesday as
westerly flow moves in and 850-hpa temps drop to -10 to -13 c. Heat
flux off the great lakes is evident in the boundary layer thermal
fields as an inverted thermal trough extending to the NW over the
great lakes region. Confidence is very low on the potential for
early week lake effect snow though, given the large discrepancies in
the upper flow patterns between the deterministic models.

Temperatures throughout this period will continue below normal
thresholds with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens and
20s.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr through at least the evening hours all all TAF locations.

However at kpsf, MVFR conditions are expected overnight before
improving. While at kalb, a period of MVFR conditions are
expected to return due to lake effect clouds and possibly some
snow showers late at night early in the morning withVFR
returning by around sunrise. Have addressed threat of snow
showers at kalb with a vcsh.

West-northwest flow will persist through the night and will
pick up early Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient between
the departing low and advancing high will tighten resulting in
brisk and gusty with gusts approaching 30 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite sn.

Friday: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn.

Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Fire weather
Drier, colder and breezy conditions are expected tonight into
tomorrow. Some gusts may exceed 30 mph at times. More widespread
precipitation (mainly in the form of snow) is expected late
Thursday into Friday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the rest of the
week.

Aside from some lake effect snow showers over the mohawk and
schoharie valleys, helderbergs and catskills, mainly dry
weather is expected tonight into tomorrow. This will allow river
and streams levels to recede from the precipitation that fell
last night into this morning. Temperatures will be turning much
colder and it will rather frigid for Wed night into Thursday,
which could allow for some thin ice to begin to form on shallow
lakes and ponds.

A widespread precipitation event is expected late Thursday
through Friday morning. Precip will mostly be snow, but some
mixed precip or rain is possible for the second half of the
storm, especially for areas south and east of the capital
region. There probably won't be enough liquid precip to have an
immediate impact on rivers and streams. Drier and continued
chilly weather is expected behind this system for the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis bgm
short term... Frugis
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Bgm
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi56 min 39°F 1020 hPa24°F
TKPN6 37 mi44 min N 1.9 G 5.1 38°F 44°F21°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 98 mi38 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 42°F 56°F1018.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 99 mi44 min WNW 5.1 G 9.9 42°F 54°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY16 mi35 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast32°F18°F56%1021 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY24 mi2.7 hrsN 610.00 miOvercast34°F24°F70%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S6S3NE3CalmN4NW5N5N3N4N5NW9NW8NW5NW5W12
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1 day agoCalmS3S4S4S6S4S6S7CalmS7S5SW4S6SE4S6S5CalmSE4SE3S7S9S9S7S6
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Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Wed -- 03:34 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:17 AM EST     3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:49 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     4.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.60.90.20.10.92.133.53.83.732.21.71.30.80.61.22.33.54.24.64.64.1

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:07 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM EST     3.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:22 PM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:22 PM EST     4.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.60.90.40.71.62.63.33.73.93.62.92.21.81.40.911.933.94.54.74.63.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.