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FXUS61 KALY 291422 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1022 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak front will stall south of the region this afternoon before returning northward tonight into Tuesday with additional showers and thunderstorms. The front will shift south and east of the region Wednesday into Thursday bringing fair weather and warmer temperatures back to the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1022 AM EDT...A slow moving surface boundary is currently draped across the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and across western New England. To the south of the boundary, skies are fairly clear, with temps already in to the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. Meanwhile, areas to the north, including the Capital Region, are only in the 40s and 50s, with widespread low clouds and gusty northerly winds. This front will continue to slowly settle southward through the day today towards NE PA, northern NJ and the NYC area.

Radar imagery shows a large batch of showers moving across the western and central Adirondacks thanks to a subtle upper level disturbance riding around the top of the upper level ridging.
Model guidance has not been handling this very well, so have increased POPs for northern areas based on radar trends, as these showers will track towards the Glens Falls and Saratoga Springs areas and possibly southern VT over the next few hours.
Overall, this precip looks fairly brief and light, but some some wet weather now looks likely for these northern areas.
Otherwise, it should remain dry across the rest of the area through the day today.

Have lowered max temps considerably for many spots, especially northern areas, as satellite trends and CAMs suggest skies will remain fairly cloudy for the Capital Region and points northward. This will keep temps generally in the 50s to low 60s for these areas. It will remain milder for far southern areas through the day. Some more breaks of sun are possible by afternoon for the Capital Region, although it's unclear if this sun will be able to make much of a difference after the cool and cloudy start on the backside of the front.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Low level ridge axis shifts east of our region and west to southwest boundary layer flow spreads through the region.
Stronger warm advection and moisture advection along with increasing low level convergence will result in weak instability in our region by late this afternoon and evening. Better instability in PA and central NY could support development of some showers and isolated thunderstorms where the thermal and moisture gradient is a little tighter along the leading edge of the warm advection. Sources of guidance show a general consensus for some of that rain to track into our region tonight but coverage is very much in question. So, including scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight, until we see what develops this afternoon and can track it.

Upper energy tracking through the flat upper ridging in the eastern U.S. will weaken as it tracks across northern areas Tuesday through Wednesday. The associated leading edge of low level cold advection and wind shift is expected to track through our region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some instability in our region, especially from the eastern Catskills through mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, will support showers and isolated thunderstorms. There are some signals that midlevel lapse rates could be somewhat steep in those areas. So, we will have to keep an eye on some potential for stronger thunderstorms there.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the entire region but again, the potential stronger thunderstorms could be in southern areas. Highs Tuesday in the 60s to around 70, but warmer if there are some persistent breaks in the clouds in the morning and early afternoon.

The upper energy and associated cold front will be slow to exit and showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday night. Clouds and some isolated showers could linger into Wednesday morning, with clouds slow to break up through Wednesday. There are disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles for rain chances Wednesday afternoon and night as warm advection begins again and strengthens with increasing low level forcing and moisture. The majority of guidance suggests isolated showers at best and the upper pattern and wind flow supports the more isolated activity at best. Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 60s, with some lower 60s in higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Long term begins at 12z Thursday with upper ridging amplifying to the west of our area and surface high pressure off to our north and west. Most sources of guidance suggest a fairly potent upper shortwave will ride up and over top of the ridge Thursday, although its exact track in relation to our forecast area remains somewhat of a question. The current consensus is for this feature to track north and east of our region. This could result in a few showers for the upper Hudson Valley into western New England. However, a track further south would result in showers spreading further southwest into our CWA There may also be a relatively tight thermal gradient that sets up across our region, with temperatures well into the 70s for the Mid Hudson Valley yet only in the low 60s across portions of VT, especially in the higher elevations.

As this shortwave moves off to our east Thursday afternoon and evening, the upper ridge continues to amplify through Friday night as it slowly shifts eastwards over our region. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will build southwards into our region, and subsidence associated with these features should result in mainly dry conditions Thursday night through Friday night. Lows will be in the 40s to 50s Thursday and Friday nights with highs Friday a degree or two cooler than those on Thursday.

The next chance for precipitation comes over the weekend as a vertically stacked surface low tracks from the upper Midwest into Canada and its occluded front approaches from the west. There is still some uncertainty on how quickly an occluded front tracks into the region and thus how quickly precip moves in. Given the uncertainty, have gone near NBM guidance which brings chance PoPs into the region Saturday, although given the upper ridging overhead and the fact that the best upper forcing is well off to our west would not be surprised to see a slower Euro-like solution verify. If this were indeed the case, much of Saturday could be dry with better chances for showers on Sunday. If the frontal passage coincides with peak daytime heating, then a few rumbles of thunder would also be possible. Temperatures over the weekend generally be in the 60s for daytime highs and 40s to 50s at night. For days 8-14, the CPC is expecting below normal temperatures and near normal precip.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12z Tuesday...Mainly MVFR conditions expected through mid- morning with BKN to OVC cigs between 1500 and 2500 ft. Have extended MVFR restrictions an hour or so further in time since previous TAF issuance based on latest guidance, but still expecting low clouds to lift by mid to late morning with drier air coming down from the north behind a cold frontal passage. Once conditions improve to VFR, we should see prevailing VFR conditions at all TAF sites through at least this evening. With the cold front stalling nearby, a few afternoon showers are possible at POU and thus have added VCSH group to the POU TAF with the 12z issuance.

Conditions will trend from VFR to MVFR from south to north tonight as the stalled front lifts back north as a warm front overnight. As this happens, we will also see isolated to scattered showers, so have added VCSH groups to all TAFs tonight to highlight this. While coverage of showers doesn't look overly impressive, brief MVFR vsby reductions possible if any showers move over the terminals. Will also mention here the chance for a few rumbles of thunder tonight, but will not put any thunder in the TAFs yet as coverage of thunder looks pretty sparse. MVFR cigs and chances for a few showers continue through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will shift to the north/northeast at 5-10 kt this morning as a cold front drops southwards through the region. Winds should be at 5- 10 kt from the north/northwest (except the northwest at PSF) through the day today. Tonight, winds become light and variable after sunset, then switch to the southeast at 5 kt or less after midnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

HYDROLOGY
A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening through Tuesday night, with a few brief downpours possible.

More widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and night, and with abundant moisture available, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially where multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms occur. This may lead to some ponding of water in urban/poor drainage areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Castleton-on-Hudson
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