Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Creek, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:58PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:21 PM EST (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 9:05AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:201902222230;;335988 Fzus51 Kbuf 221449 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 949 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-222230- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 949 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
.storm watch in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..West winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly to mostly Sunny. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Rain likely in the evening, then rain with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west and increasing to 50 knot storms. Rain showers during the day, then lake effect snow and rain showers likely Sunday night.
Monday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Creek, NY
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location: 42.54, -79.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230232
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
932 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure draped across our region overnight will slowly drift
eastward across new england on Saturday... While continuing to
provide our region with quiet and largely dry weather. A strong
storm system will then track across the upper great lakes and
southern canada Saturday night and Sunday. This system will spread
rain showers across our area Saturday night... With its powerful
trailing cold front then crossing the area on Sunday and ushering
in an extended period of widespread damaging winds that will last
through Sunday night.

Near term through Sunday night
A major storm system will impact the region this period, with
widespread damaging winds, the likelihood for lake shore
flooding east of both lakes, and accumulating lake effect snow
to close out the period.

Overnight... Strong surface high pressure will slowly drift
eastward across new york state. This feature will provide our
region with dry and tranquil weather... With lingering lower
clouds across the finger lakes and north country continuing to
erode away... And high thin cirrus continuing to pass across
areas south of lake ontario. With light winds in place
conditions will be favorable for good radiational cooling...

especially east of lake ontario where skies will be largely
clear once the lower clouds depart. For this reason we have
continued to aim below guidance for overnight low temps...

with these expected to range from the lower 20s south of lake
ontario to the mid and upper teens across the north country.

Once the low clouds depart east of lake ontario... The light
winds and lingering low level moisture may also support the
development of some patchy fog.

On Saturday the surface high will exit off the new england coast.

Much of the day will be dry, with clouds slowly increasing ahead
of a deepening storm system across the mid mississippi valley. While
a few spotty rain showers will be possible late in the day across
the western southern tier, the majority of the region will have to
wait until Saturday night before seeing any rain.

The amplified pattern, with southeasterly flow forcing milder air
northward will spell plain rain for most of the region Saturday
night. There is some potential that some colder air stays in place
across interior sections of the north country, where there may
be a brief period of mixed precipitation as it starts.

Deep moisture ahead of the mid-mississippi trough will be
transported across the great lakes region Saturday night supporting
the area of widespread rain. A period of elevated instability may
bring a few rumbles of thunder to portions of the southern tier, and
also southern erie and wyoming county. Overall rainfall amounts
Saturday night will range from a tenth to a third of an inch on
average basin wide.

Under strong warm air advection through the night temperatures will
begin to rise. By early Sunday morning, much of western new
york will likely be around 50f if not a few degrees warmer.

12z models remaining consistent in tracking a deepening, and
anomalously deep low across lake michigan to near northern
michigan Saturday night and Sunday, with a 65 to 75 knot low
level jet passing across the region Sunday and Sunday night.

This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 mb
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 pv
tail (down to near 500 mb) across the region will transport
very strong winds down to the surface through the day Sunday,
beginning in the late morning hours and continuing through
Sunday night. As the 1.5 PV tail crosses the region Sunday
afternoon behind a strong cold front, and potential for 60 knots
of wind flow dipping below 1k feet, wind gusts at the surface
could approach 75 mph downwind of lake erie and across the lake
plain. Several past high wind events have shown up in the cips
analogs, including high wind events of feb 10th 2001, feb 1
2002, jan 9 2008. The jan 9th event at the surface looks similar
to this, with a surface low tracking across the soo that
deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface high
building across the plains is stronger for our event
Sunday, which will bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting
confidence that wind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible.

Sunday morning will begin very warm with temperatures in the morning
hours peaking well into the 50s across western new york. A few 60
degree readings are possible in the genesee valley within this
anomalous weather pattern. Temperatures across western new york will
begin to fall by late morning as the surface cold front crosses the
region. Additional rainfall Sunday will be on the order of a tenth
or two.

As the cold front crosses the region Sunday wind gusts will quickly
strengthen from west to east, with damaging west-southwest gusts
howling across the region. The strongest winds are expected Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. What will also make this wind event
concerning will be the prolonged period of damaging winds, with
gusts over 60 mph possible for about a 12 hour period. This lengthy
period of winds battering the region could increase the severity of
this wind event. Strong winds will persist into Sunday night, this
will be more of a west to west-northwest direction as the surface
low tracks across southern quebec.

Winds will eventually begin to decrease later Sunday night as the
surface low begins to fill across canada.

After the initial wave of rain crosses the region Sunday, a dry slot
may bring a temporary period of rainfree weather before moisture
wraps back around our region with at first rain showers that will
quickly transition to snow.

850 mb temperatures will plummet to -15c over the lakes which will
increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake
effect snow parameters become increasingly favorable, bands of snow
will form to the east and then southeast of the lakes. Ice on lake
erie should limit the snow to just a few inches across ski country.

However, open waters of lake ontario and a west to northwest flow
over the long axis of the lake should bring a band of moderate
snow inland. East of lake ontario snow accumulations could
exceed 6", and will maintain this in the hazardous weather
outlook product. Of concern will be the still strong winds
within this lake snow. These winds will create significant
blowing of snow that will greatly reduce visibilities with near
blizzard conditions possible.

Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s,
with temperatures 12z Monday morning some 20 to 30f degrees cooler
than where they were 24 hours prior.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
While the main impacts from the wind event will have initiated
from the system over the southwest us, the end of the event will
be a result of a system moving into the pacific northwest. This
feature will eventually merge with the ongoing storm system
Sunday into Monday. By Monday morning, the cold pool aloft from
the northern stream system should be directly over western ny.

Winds aloft by this time will be out of the wnw.

For areas east of lake erie, this means limited lake fetch and some
relief for the populated niagara frontier, but upslope flow and
limited lake response from ice free areas of lake erie should allow
for some snow during the day for areas to the ese of the lake. When
combined with decreasing but continued wind gusts in the 30-45 mph
range, some whiteouts are possible over the more traditional snow
prone regions ese of lake erie extending into the higher terrain.

Conditions should be slowly improving through the day, with both
winds and any snow finally ending Monday night.

East of lake ontario, there is a little more concern for near
blizzard conditions into Monday morning due to higher gusts together
with a lake response owing to the approaching cold pool aloft. The
highest concern is currently on the south side of the tug hill
plateau south to the ese shoreline to either NE wayne and or
northern cayuga, with a focus on oswego county. Amounts should be
manageable, but the near blizzard conditions will likely be a
concern throughout the day from blowing snow, and possibly into
Monday evening, after which winds should finally drop off.

Tuesday surface high pressure should be passing overhead. This
should result in a dry day. But, it's possible there may be some
non-accumulating lake effect flurries ese of lake ontario, and
uncertainty increases on timing and placement for the next system
toward the end of the day.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Tuesday night and Wednesday would be the time period for the
next system, but models continue to be at odds on where and even
if this system will materialize. The GFS and several ensemble
members continue to bring one through the region while the ecmwf
has been steadfast in keeping surface high pressure over the
region. The origins of the model discrepancies may be due to a
developing rex block over the pacific northwest with poor
downstream model handling.

Confidence may be slightly higher, at least for the lack of
precipitation for the end of the week, assuming a surface ridge
either continues or rebuilds. Temperatures however still quite
uncertain with no clear signal on whether we'll see arctic flow
(ecmwf) or warmer air within a zonal flow (gfs).

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Overnight strong surface high pressure will slowly drift east
across new york state. As it does so... Lingering higher-end MVFR
to lower-endVFR ceilings across the finger lakes north country
will continue to erode away through about 06z. Once these dissipate...

lingering low level moisture may support the development of some
patchy ifr MVFR fog across the north country overnight. Otherwise...

generalVFR conditions will prevail with just some cirrus-level
cloudiness passing across areas south of lake ontario.

On Saturday generalVFR conditions are expected as the high slowly
departs eastward across new england... With just a low chance of
some spotty showers across the southern tier late in the day.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR lowering to MVFR in rain showers and
thickening lowering clouds.

Sunday... Strong winds developing, otherwise MVFR ifr with
rain showers.

Sunday night... Continued strong winds, otherwise MVFR ifr
with rain showers changing to snow showers.

Monday...VFR MVFR in scattered snow showers. Local ifr in
heavier lake effect snow and blowing snow.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR MVFR in scattered snow showers.

Marine
High pressure will slide across the region overnight, then across
new england on Saturday with generally light winds prevailing.

A powerful storm system will then track through the central great
lakes and into southern canada Saturday night through Sunday night.

This will bring at least high-end gales and possibly storm force
winds to lakes erie and ontario Sunday and Sunday night... For which
storm watches remain in place. The strong winds will also impact
the existing ice cover on both lakes... With this breaking and
moving around considerably.

Hydrology
A period of rain will develop Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall
amounts look to be relatively minor with about a quarter to
perhaps a third of an inch expected. Warming temperatures
Saturday into Sunday will elevate the risk of ice jams. Thawing
degree hours will reach the threshold where ice begins to move
by early Saturday night. Ice jam concerns would then continue
into early Sunday. The most susceptible areas to ice jams are
the buffalo creeks and cattaraugus creek, although they can
happen anywhere.

Tides coastal flooding
Powerful winds gusting up to 75 mph will result in water rises
in the eastern basins of lake erie and lake ontario Sunday and
Sunday night.

Lake erie... Significant water rises are expected along
shoreline areas with the expected seiche. Ice in place at the
eastern end of the lake will get pushed onto shoreline areas
likely causing damage, including the buffalo harbor and buffalo
waterfront. Ice will also get pushed across the niagara river
ice boom into the upper niagara river likely causing damage
along shoreline areas of the upper niagara river.

Lake ontario... Significant water rises and high waves are
expected to impact shoreline areas from oswego county to the
saint lawrence river. Ice in place, especially at the northeast
end extending to the saint lawrence river will get pushed onto
shoreline areas likely causing damaging. Areas which may be
particularly vulnerable to flooding and ice damage are sandy
pond, black river bay, chaumont bay, and the thousand islands
region of the saint lawrence river.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... High wind warning from 7 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for
nyz001>003-010-011-019-085.

Lakeshore flood warning from 7 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday
for nyz001-010-019-085.

High wind warning from 10 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for
nyz004>008-012>014-020-021.

Lakeshore flood warning from 4 pm Sunday to 1 pm est Monday
for nyz006-007.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
lez020.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for lez040-041.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
night for loz030.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
loz042>044-062>064.

Storm watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for loz045-065.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Apffel jjr tma
short term... Zaff
long term... Zaff
aviation... Jjr tma
marine... Jjr tma
hydrology... Tma
tides coastal flooding... Tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 10 mi21 min E 6 G 6 30°F 1032.4 hPa (+0.5)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi39 min 29°F 1031.3 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 28 mi33 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 32°F 33°F1031.9 hPa16°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 38 mi33 min 30°F 1031.6 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY6 mi28 minE 310.00 miFair25°F21°F85%1032.5 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW4SW4SW3SW4SW3CalmCalmS3S3CalmCalm3N6NW7N7NW5N5CalmN4CalmSE3NE3E3
1 day agoS19
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S9SW16
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W6SW7
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E6NE6NE8NE11SE11E8CalmN10SE14
G25
SE7SE4E10SE10E5E115S17
G24
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G33

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.