Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:16PM Monday March 27, 2017 11:33 AM CDT (16:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 927 Am Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 3 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Variable wind around 5 knots becoming northeast wind 5 to 10 knots by late morning. Areas of dense fog. Slight chance of rain. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Slight chance of rain through around midnight. Patchy fog through the night. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201703272000;;160591 FZUS53 KMKX 271427 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 927 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-272000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 271536 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
1036 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Update
Light winds will gradually shift to the northeast late this
morning. The visibility is improving everywhere, along with
thinning low clouds. However, as winds become northeast near the
lakeshore, fog and low clouds from the lake are spreading inland.

Gloomy day today. Kept the small chance for light rain or drizzle
in forecast today to account for very weak lift in the upper
levels.

Aviation(15z update)
Winds are gradually becoming northeast this morning. Once the
winds went NE in milwaukee, fog and low clouds from the lake
spread into the airport. This will likely impact kenosha late this
morning as well. These low conditions are expected to improve
early this afternoon, but confidence is low at this time.

Marine
Extended the marine dense fog advisory until mid afternoon when
increasing northeast winds should help to diminish the fog.

Northeast winds and waves will approach small craft advisory
levels late tonight into Tuesday, but so far they should stay just
under criteria so no headline.

Prev discussion (issued 304 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

With light winds and ample low level moisture, expect areas of fog
early this morning. Do not think dense fog is high enough of a
possibility for a dense fog advisory. The baggy surface pressure
gradient will remain over southern wisconsin through afternoon as
another surface low approaches and winds become northeast. Best
chance for rain will be in southeast wi during the afternoon and
early evening as upper level divergence increases ahead of the upper
shortwave that moves across illinois later this afternoon.

Forecast soundings show moisture trapped beneath a low level
inversion, so the low clouds will continue.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Zonal flow aloft will gradually turn northwest as a ridge builds
into the region. The ridge axis will be over southern wisconsin by
wedensday morning, and there is some evidence that a weak shortwave
will move through just behind the ridge axis.

Closer to the surface, strong high pressure will build into southern
canada, placing southern wisconsin solidly within anticyclonic flow.

Rh fields in the lower levels dry out from north to south on
Tuesday, and should stay dry until moisture begins to build into
the SW on Wednesday afternoon ahead of a developing low pressure
system over the great plains. Tuesday afternoon should end up
pretty sunny, but unfortunately an area of high rh in the upper
levels of the atmosphere is progged to move over southern wi on
Wednesday, so it looks like we will have increasing cloudiness on
Wednesday.

Gfs/nam are both hinting at a secondary surge of cold air pushing
south through the state on Tuesday. The signature is pretty messy,
but there is some coherent fgen bands and locally strong caa
present in both models. Will leave this out of the forecast for
now, but if this does happen, temperatures will obviously need to
be adjusted downward. Additionally,with easterly winds through
the period, lakeside locations will remain cooler than spots
inland.

Long term...

Wednesday night through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Differences in model solutions remain, but overall guidance does
seem like it's beginning to zero in on a consensus. Cutoff low
aloft/low pressure at the surface over the southern plains on
Wednesday will move to the northeast, reaching the eastern great
lakes by Friday evening. The GFS forecast, which was previously
tracking the low south of the ohio river is now much farther north,
more in line with the euro/canadian. If anything, the euro now
appears to be somewhat of an outlier, pushing the system through
the area a bit faster than the gfs/canadian.

Regardless, precip is likely on Thursday as the warm front extending
from the low moves into the region. Precip could end as early as
midnight on Friday if the euro is to be believed, and as late as
Friday night as shown by the canadian. Temperatures will start out
right around freezing on Thursday morning, so those will have to be
watched closely. Given the warm air aloft associated with the warm
front, we may see a wintry mix situation play out on Thursday
morning before switching to rain in the afternoon. If rain does
linger into Friday, another round of wintry precipitation would be
possible in the morning.

Saturday through Monday... Forecast confidence is low.

The models bring another northern stream shortwave through the area
on Saturday as another cutoff low develops in the desert southwest.

Surface low pressure will likely develop somewhere in southern
canada over the weekend, but there is not enough of a consensus to
get a good idea of where that will be, where it will track, and when
it will happen.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

widespread rain is winding down now in the northeast forecast area
with just a little drizzle to linger into early tonight. Could see
a little light rain brush the southeast tomorrow afternoon, but
otherwise it will be drier tonight into Monday.

Low clouds will persist into Monday. Could see some low
visibilities again tonight into Monday morning given the recent
rainfall and light to calm winds at the surface. Seeing a few
lower observations developing in the southern forecast area, but
nothing widespread thus far. Will continue to keep an eye on the
potential for dense fog into Monday morning.

Marine...

with low level moisture and light winds in place, will leave the
end time of the dense fog advisory, although weak northwest winds
will likely keep the thicker fog towards open waters.

Gusty north winds with high pressure centered north of lake
superior, will likely bring small craft advisory conditions back
into the area late tonight and especially Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 3 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz643>646.

Update... Cronce
today/tonight and aviation/marine... Hentz
Tuesday through Sunday... Bsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 40 mi33 min NE 9.9 G 11 40°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi53 min E 4.1 G 5.1 40°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 50 mi43 min E 2.9 G 2.9 40°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI17 mi58 minN 010.00 miOvercast47°F45°F95%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmCalmW6NW8NW6NW5W4W3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE12
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2 days agoSW11
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CalmNE11
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NE14NE10NE10NE11NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.