Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:36PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 9:09 PM CDT (02:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:34AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 321 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until early morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing northeast late in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201706290415;;967257 FZUS53 KMKX 282021 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-290415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 290006 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
706 pm cdt Wed jun 28 2017

Update
A tornado watch is in effect until 10 pm. We just expanded it to
include the lakeshore counties from ozaukee south because the
storms look like they'll sustain themselves all the way to the
lake.

All modes of storms are expected this evening. The deep layer and
low level shear are very strong. There is just enough CAPE to
sustain these storms. Conditions are favorable for tornadoes. We
are seeing mainly linear storms, but also some supercells in the
vicinity. There are notches developing in the lines, so we are
keeping eyes out for circulations.

Very heavy rain with these storms, but there is a general
southeast movement, so no flash flood warnings at this time. May
need to issue urban and small stream flood advisory.

The storms you see on radar are
probably the only ones we'll see, but there is still a chance
through just after midnight due to lingering instability and warm
air advection.

Aviation(00z tafs)
Storms early in the evening. Keep an eye on radar. Very heavy
rain. Strong winds are expected on leading edge of storms, hail
possible, tornado possible. The storms you see on radar are
probably the only ones we'll see, but there is still a chance
through just after midnight due to lingering instability and warm
air advection.

Prev discussion (issued 342 pm cdt Wed jun 28 2017)
short term...

tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

There is a round of thunderstorms across south central and
southeast wi right now. These are fueled by persistent warm air
advection and strong moisture transport. The ml CAPE is on the
rise and storms are starting to get a little more height to them.

Still not tall enough for severe. The storms moving into southeast
wi actually has sunshine, so that will help sustain them as they
move through.

The next round of thunderstorms approaching from ia will have the
potential to be severe. These should arrive in madison around 5 to
6 pm. However, the low clouds that are hanging around all day are
not helping the instability situation and these storms may just
be a large multi-cell cluster by the time they reach south central
wi. Time will tell.

More storms could move through southern wi as late as midnight,
but these have a much lower chance of being severe.

Thursday through Sunday... Forecast confidence medium.

A low pressure area will move across the NRN great lakes and
ontario, canada for thu-thu nt while its trailing cold front
slowly moves across SRN wi. Meanwhile a shortwave trough will
approach from the wsw on Thu bringing another round of convection
to far SRN wi Thu aft-eve.

As the front drops swd into il and lower mi late Thu nt into fri,
another shortwave trough and wave of low pressure will track
along the front bringing yet another round of convection for much
of SRN wi, heaviest in SE wi.

On sat, wnwly flow will prevail with a weak cold front for the
afternoon and evening with isolated to sct tstorm development
possible. A weak ridge of high pressure will follow late Sat nt
into sun.

Temps and humidity during this period will be near seasonal
normals.

Long term... Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence low.

The models differ on the overall evolution of the synoptic pattern
and a wavering frontal boundary. Chances of showers and storms
will continue with the possibility of a stationary front in the
vicinity of SRN wi.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

ceilings will gradually improve from west to east this afternoon
as we get better mixing and more heating. Plan on gusty southerly
winds as well.

We are still expecting a couple more rounds of thunderstorms.

There will be some scattered storms through late afternoon, then a
larger area of storms should approach south central wi late this
afternoon which could be severe. There is yet another chance for
storms during the evening hours which could also be strong.

Marine...

the increasing southerly winds are delayed this afternoon due to
the morning showers, but they are starting to come up now. Winds
and waves will remain high through much of the night. A small
craft advisory is in effect.

Westerly wind gusts will approach small craft advy levels thu
afternoon.

Beaches...

a beach hazard statement is in effect from port washington to
sheboygan. Breezy southerly winds and high waves will bring a
high swim risk to the sheboygan county beaches. Winds will be a
bit more off shore and waves will be lower south of that area.

However, a moderate swim risk covers all of southeast wisconsin
lake michigan beaches.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement until 4 am cdt Thursday for wiz052.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am cdt Thursday for lmz643>646.

Update... Cronce
tonight Thursday and aviation marine... Cronce
Thursday night through Wednesday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 40 mi70 min SSW 9.9 G 13 74°F 1006.8 hPa (-1.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi50 min SSW 20 G 25 73°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 50 mi30 min SW 4.1 G 7 62°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI17 mi75 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F70°F86%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS4S5S5S7SW11
G17
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1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3S3CalmCalmNW6NW6NW9W9W7W3W5NW5SW3SW4SW8S3Calm
2 days agoW6W4W4W4SW3W4SW4CalmSW3SW4W4W8
G15
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NW9NW14
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NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.