Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:23PM Sunday December 10, 2017 11:52 PM CST (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:27AMMoonset 1:38PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2017
.gale watch in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning...
Rest of tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then backing southwest 5 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of snow early in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon veering southwest late in the afternoon. Chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest wind 10 to 25 knots becoming north up to 30 knots late in the evening, then backing northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 35 knots. Slight chance of snow through around midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots easing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the morning, then easing to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201712111100;;712040 FZUS53 KMKX 110506 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1106 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-111100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 110539
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1139 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017

Update
The experimental high res hrrr still brings in the enhanced
secondary band late morning afternoon in NW to SE areas. The 00z
nam is taking this band more across our northern areas, dells to
fond du lac to sheboygan. GFS and canadian are more in line with
the hrrr. Bottom line will have to watch the SE to p[possibly
bring totals around 2 inches. No surprises in the two periods of
expected snow.

Aviation(06z tafs)
MVFR CIGS are expected into the early morning hours before
possibly scattering out as mid clouds move in. A period of warm
air advection and light snow will bring MVFR CIGS back to the
area after midnight. Those lower CIGS will spread southeast
across southern wisconsin during the early morning hours with the
snow, then remain there except possibly in southwest areas on
Monday. The light snow is still expected to reach kmsn by around
09-10z and kmke a few hours later. We should see a lull in the
precipitation by mid morning, with more light snow expected by
early afternoon, then ending by Monday evening. Amounts are still
in the 1 to 2 inch range. There is a minor threat for a period of
freezing drizzle in the morning on Monday after the first band of
light snow moves through, but amounts look too light even if it
occurs for there to be much impact.

Prev discussion (issued 924 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017)
update...

the 18z superblend is a few hundreths higher in precipitation
than what is in the current forecast, especially south areas. The
experimental high res hrrr still brings in the enhanced secondary
band late morning afternoon in southern areas. However the new 00z
nam (first model with new upper air run this evening) is taking
this band more across our northern areas, dells to fond du lac to
sheboygan. Still too early in the new model run cycle to make any
changes. No surprises in the two periods of snow and general
amounts.

Marine...

a gale watch is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday
morning. Strong north to northwest winds in the wake of an
exiting low will likely bring gale force wind gusts to the
nearshore waters from Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

Prev discussion... (issued 550 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017)
update...

stratocumulus have again taken hold. These may scatter out this
evening as mid level clouds push in.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

MVFR CIGS are expected into the evening before scattering out as
mid clouds move in. A period of warm air advection and light snow
will bring MVFR CIGS back to the area after midnight. Those lower
cigs will spread quickly southeast across southern wisconsin
late tonight, then remain there through the day on Monday. The
light snow is still expected to reach kmsn by around 09-10z
Monday and kmke a few hours later. We should see a lull in the
precipitation by mid morning, with more light snow expected by
early afternoon, then ending by Monday evening. Amounts are still
in the 1 to 2 inch range. There is a minor threat for a period of
freezing drizzle in the morning on Monday after the first band of
light snow moves through, but amounts look too light for there to
be much impact.

Prev discussion... (issued 235 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017)
discussion...

tonight and Monday... Forecast confidence is high.

Our cold northwest flow continues. A potent mid level short wave
will track southeast in the that flow, moving from central north
dakota late this evening, to central south central illinois by
sunset on Monday. Ahead of this wave, moderate warm air advection
will reach our northwest forecast area around sauk county between
midnight and 3 am, moving quickly east southeast from there.

Precipitable water values increase from less than .25" to just
over .50" by sunrise on Monday. Look for an area of light snow to
overspread the area with the arrival of this warmer and more moist
air. The column will be cold enough to keep it all snow.

We could see the snow end for a time during the morning as the waa
pushes off to the east and we lose some column moisture and lift.

The next round of light snow will be associated with the short
wave passing by to the west and south in the afternoon. During
that potential quiet period in the morning, we could see some
light freezing drizzle. It is iffy to begin with and amounts would
be very light, so minimal impact is anticipated.

Some of the guidance has shifted the narrow band of snow expected
with the short wave farther south than the overnight guidance had.

But, it's a split decision. The concern with these short wave
generated snows is the potential for a narrow, focused band of
higher accums. Tough to place precisely, not to mention the final
total. For now, we'll keep the general 1 to 2 inch potential, but
wouldn't be surprised if we get some 3 inch reports in a narrow
east west oriented corridor... If it sets up.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Any lingering precip will exit quickly by Monday evening, then
cold air plows into the region behind a departing cold front.

Highs on Tuesday will likely stay down in the upper teens with
dry high pressure overnight. Lows in the single digits are likely
for Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The cold northwest flow persists and yet another short wave is
expected to take a similar track southeast across the region. This
one doesn't look as potent and the moisture is more limited, but
we could see some light snow from time to time during this period.

Very little accumulation is expected at this time.

Friday and the weekend... Forecast confidence is medium.

The long range guidance is in pretty good agreement that low
pressure will track north of the area... From north dakota Friday
afternoon, to eastern lake superior by Saturday night. There's a
chance of snow with the warm air advection ahead of the low and
also with the trough cold front Saturday night. Temps will begin
to warm with this system passing to the north, which brings more
of a wintry mix concern for late in the week.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

vfr CIGS are expected through the evening. A period of warm air
advection and light snow will bring MVFR CIGS back to the area
after 06z Monday. Those lower CIGS will spread quickly southeast
across southern wisconsin later tonight, then remain there through
the day on Monday. The light snow is still expected to reach kmsn
by around 09-10z Monday and kmke a few hours later. We should see
a lull in the activity by mid morning, with more light snow
expected by early afternoon, then ending by Monday evening.

Amounts are still in the 1 to 2 inch range. There is a minor
threat for a period of freezing drizzle in the morning on Monday,
but amounts look too light for there to be much impact.

Marine...

increasing northwest winds in the wake of a passing cold front
will likely bring small craft advisory conditions to the
nearshore waters from Monday evening into Tuesday night. A few
gale force gusts are possible later Monday night.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
lmz643>646.

Update... Hentz
tonight Monday and aviation marine... Ddv
Monday night through Sunday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 40 mi53 min NNW 7 G 8 28°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi73 min NNW 5.1 G 8 27°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 50 mi43 min NW 4.1 G 7 27°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI17 mi83 minNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F29°F87%1017.9 hPa

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Last 24hrW6SW5SW6SW8SW8SW7SW8SW8SW9SW11
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W9NW7N9NW7NW11NW8NW4NW4NW6NW6NW5NW5NW4Calm
1 day agoS8S7SW10W5W6N9N15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.