Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:32PM Friday November 16, 2018 10:21 AM CST (16:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:37PMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 906 Am Cst Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm cst this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots backing west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight backing southwest early in the morning. Chance of snow showers through around midnight, then snow showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Snow showers likely in the morning, then slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot building to 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday night..North wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the evening, then backing northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
LMZ646 Expires:201811162300;;394527 FZUS53 KMKX 161506 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-162300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fontana-on-Geneva Lake, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 161604 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1004 am cst Fri nov 16 2018

Update
The 12z models are coming in and it is looking like our heaviest
band of snow will be south of the current forecast for tonight. We
will be updating snowfall amounts and accumulation graphics
accordingly. I'm pretty sure we will need a winter weather
advisory, but not exactly sure where yet. I aim to have this
decided by 11 am.

Bottom line is that it will snow everywhere across southern wi
due to an upper shortwave trough, weak surface trough, and right
entrance region of an upper jet. We can expect a few bands of
heavier snow within areas of frontogenesis at various levels.

We will see a round of initial frontogenesis (fgen) over
southwest wi this evening. However, that main low-level fgen
associated with the baroclinic zone will likely remain south of
the wi il border early Saturday morning. The GFS still hints at
some weaker upper level fgen over southern wi though during this
time though.

Marine
No change to the forecast for today. Gusty west-northwest winds of
25-30 kt are developing this morning in the wake of a surface
trough. The winds will gradually diminish through the afternoon.

Nearshore waters... Small craft advisory is in effect for areas
south of port washington until 21z 3pm this afternoon. It remains
in effect until 00z 6pm today north of there. Any high waves will
be over the open waters with the offshore flow. North winds will
approach small craft advisory levels on Saturday, with west winds
approaching these levels on Sunday. West to southwest winds will
again approach these levels on Wednesday.

Open waters... Westerly gusts to around 30 knots are expected over
the southern half of lake michigan into early this afternoon,
before slowly weakening. Waves will build on the eastern side of
the lake.

Prev discussion (issued 538 am cst Fri nov 16 2018)
update...

the snow has moved well east of the area early this morning, so
have removed mention from the forecast for this morning. Also, any
light freezing drizzle should end shortly, with radar not showing
much if any light reflectivity. Untreated road surfaces may still
be slick. Gusty west to northwest winds should develop in the
next few hours, as the pressure gradient tightens. Clouds should
stick around today. Highs in the upper 30s still look reasonable.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

the snow has moved well east of the area early this morning, so
have removed mention from tafs. Any light freezing drizzle should
end shortly. Untreated surfaces may still be slick.

Ceilings are expected to mix upward to 3500 feet or higher until
around 15z or so this morning across the far eastern parts of the
area. This would include the eastern terminals. Ceilings of 1000
to 1500 feet should linger at madison at least into early this
afternoon, and should move into the eastern terminals by middle
morning. They may rise to above 3500 feet later this afternoon
into this evening. Blustery west to northwest winds are expected
by middle morning and lingering into middle afternoon. They will
become light and variable tonight.

Next round of snow is expected to move east into the area later
this evening, with moderate snow occurring later tonight into
Saturday morning. Visibility values should drop to around 1 mile,
possibly lower in heavier snow bands, with ceilings in the 500 to
1200 foot range.

Snow accumulations, at this time, are forecast to be in the 2 to
4 inch range. There is still some uncertainty with the exact
amounts, so these values may change. May see hourly snow rates of
up to 1 2 inch per hour in any heavier snow bands, depending on
where they set up. Keep up with the forecast.

Prev discussion... (issued 251 am cst Fri nov 16 2018)
short term...

today... Forecast confidence is high.

Strong upward vertical motion from passing 500 mb shortwave
trough, and left exit region of 250 mb jet streak, bringing area
of moderate to heavy snow showers east across the area early this
morning. This will bring a quick 1 2 inch of snow accumulation as
it moves through the area. It should move east of the area by 11z
to 12z at the latest. This should bring slick roads early this
morning. No headlines are planned for this round of snow.

May see a short period of light freezing drizzle occur as the
snow ends, and with the weakening area of precipitation moving
into the northwest counties. This would be due to a loss of ice
crystals, seen on area forecast soundings. Temperatures are
hovering around freezing, though upstream they are above freezing.

This may cause a light glazing on roads, though think that it
should be rather short lived.

A blustery and cool day is then expected, with some breaks in the
overcast possible in the afternoon. Highs should be in the upper
30s, though it will feel colder with the winds.

Tonight and Saturday... Forecast confidence medium.

Another mid level shortwave and associated surface trough and
frontal boundary will push southeast across the northern plains
today. Isentropic ascent ahead of this system, aided by a robust
frontal circulation, should result in an area of snow moving from
southern minnesota into central and northern iowa this afternoon
and early evening, with precipitation then pushing into southern
wisconsin and parts of northern illinois late this evening into
early Saturday morning.

Within this area of snow there will likely be one or more heavier
bands, depending on where and how strong the frontogenetical
circulation ends up being. The NAM and several short range, high
resolution models continue to highlight areas along and just south
of the i-94 us 18 corridor for the heaviest snow, while the gfs
and ECMWF maintain a slightly more southerly solution. The
location and strength of the banding will be key to snow amounts,
with a solid 3-4 inch snow increasingly likely if and where that
band sets up. Outside of that band, amounts will likely be more in
the 1-3 inch range.

Given the continued uncertainties, we will hold off on a winter
weather advisory for now, giving us a chance to look at the early
12z guidance before making a decision. Updates are certainly
likely throughout the day today, so please check back often for
the most up to date information.

Snow is expected to end from west to east during the morning hours
on Saturday. Saturday will be a bit breezy, with north winds
keeping wind chills in the low 20s for most of the day.

Long term...

temperatures will remain chilly on Sunday, with highs in the upper
20s to around 30. Another system will move through the great lakes
on Monday, providing a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Monday
and Tuesday. For now it looks like the bulk of any precipitation
will remain north of the area, though some light snow showers or
flurries aren't entirely out of the question during the day
Monday.

Extended guidance continues to suggest that the cold northwest
flow that's been in place over the region for sometime will start
to break down by mid week, with southerly surface flow and upper
level ridging moving into the central us. This would likely result
in temperatures returning to to climatological averages by late
week (mid 40s).

Aviation(09z TAF updates)...

area of moderate to heavy snow will continue to move east
southeast through the eastern terminals early this morning. A
quick 1 2 inch of snow accumulation is expected, with visibility
values as low as 1 to 2 miles and ceilings down to around 2000
feet. May see light freezing drizzle occur as the snow ends, and
with the precipitation moving into northwest parts of the area.

This should be short lived, but may bring a light glazing.

Ceilings are expected to drop to 1000 to 1500 feet by 12z today,
lingering into at least early this afternoon. They may rise to
above 3500 feet later this afternoon into this evening. Blustery
west winds are expected by middle morning and lingering into
middle afternoon. They will become light and variable tonight.

Next round of snow is expected to move east into the area later
this evening, with moderate snow occurring later tonight into
Saturday morning. Visibility values should drop to 1 to 2 miles,
possibly lower in heavier snow bands, with ceilings in the 500 to
1000 foot range.

Snow accumulations, at this time, are forecast to be in the 2 to
4 inch range. There is still some uncertainty with the exact
amounts, so these values may change. May see hourly snow rates of
up to 1 2 inch per hour in any heavier snow bands, depending on
where they set up. Keep up with the forecast.

Marine...

nearshore waters... Small craft advisory has been extended for
areas south of port washington until 21z this afternoon. It
remains in effect until 00z Saturday north of there. Gusty west
winds are expected into today, with a tight pressure gradient
developing. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected this morning,
slowly lowering this afternoon. Any high waves will be over the
open waters, with the offshore flow.

North winds will approach small craft advisory levels on
Saturday, with west winds approaching these levels on Sunday. West
to southwest winds will again approach these levels on Wednesday.

Open waters... Westerly gusts to around 30 knots are expected over
the southern half of lake michigan this morning into early this
afternoon, before slowly weakening. Waves will build on the
eastern side of the lake.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 3 pm cst this afternoon for
lmz644>646.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for lmz643.

Update... Cronce
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Saturday through Thursday... Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 40 mi21 min WNW 11 G 16 37°F 1012.9 hPa (+3.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi21 min WNW 16 G 22 37°F
45186 42 mi21 min NW 16 38°F 43°F1 ft
45187 42 mi21 min 39°F 43°F1 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 50 mi31 min WNW 9.9 G 13 37°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI17 mi26 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast23°F14°F72%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4S4SE5SW3SW4SW4S5SW5SW7SW5SW7S7S10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmSE4CalmSE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW11
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NW7NW11W8W8W4CalmCalmW4W4W3CalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.