Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 7:41PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:44 AM EDT (05:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:21AMMoonset 4:22PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure returns for Thursday. A warm front will bring a chance of rain for Fri into Sat. High pressure will return on Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170203
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1003 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
Dry and pleasant conditions continue into tomorrow. A weather
system moving through the great lakes region towards the end of
the workweek will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to
southern new england during Friday and Saturday. High pressure
returns with fair seasonable weather Sunday and Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing
our next chance of showers.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
1000 pm update...

dewpoints continue to drop this evening as a few strato CU moves
through the area. Very comfortable conditions tonight as temps
drop into the 50s. Dry weather will prevail.

330 pm discussion follows...

very weak trof remains in place across S new england this
afternoon and has been the reason that dwpts are failing to mix
as well as previously forecast. Although dwpts are shifting into
the upper 50s, there remains a few low 60s this afternoon.

However, noting that the CU field continues to dissipate across
n new england suggesting that as the trof weakens (especially
this evening), the drier air should infiltrate the low lvls and
allow the dwpts to continue to diminish.

This gradual drop in dwpts, along with a trend toward skc
conditions generally across the board, combined with a weak sfc
pres gradient should allow for a good radiational cooling night.

Mins look to drop into the 50s in most locations expect the
warmest heat islands. Cannot rule out a few upper 40s in the
most sheltered valleys of NW ma, but these would generally be
few and far between. Overall, a good sleeping night.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Tomorrow...

high pres crests over the region providing stout subsidence.

Despite the mostly sunny conditions this suggests, the
combination of suppressed mixing and a cooler start to the day
will lead to overall high temps a few degrees cooler than
yesterday. This is also in spite of generally W flow. Mainly
upper 70s and low 80s in the warmest spots where the downsloping
can be maximized. Overall a pleasant day especially with dwpts
remaining in the 50s.

Will still need to watch mainly exposed beaches across CAPE cod
and nantucket, as the remnants of gert continue to shift east, a
lingering swell could maintain a moderate risk for rip currents
through the day in these areas.

Tomorrow night...

a pleasant evening to start, however upper lvl wave will be
tilting and lifting through ontario and quebec with sfc wave
pushing a warm front toward new england. Pwats increase through
the overnight hours, such that by 12z fri, they near 2.00
inches (or nearly 2 std deviations above normal). Initial
overruning is weak and this moisture load is from the top of the
column to the sfc. Therefore, expecting only building clouds
through the evening, with the risk for any precipitation holding
off until the early morning hours. Indeed, timing of
measurable QPF has slowed on regional models due to this
initial lack of lift and dry column. Still could see some
wetting rainfall by sunrise mainly W of the worcester hills in
ma and thames river region of ct. Noting some QPF bullseyes,
but these are mostly likely some convective feedback. Column
remains relatively stable through 12z.

The increased moisture from w-e will limit diurnal cooling in
spite of the weak pres gradient to start. Coolest areas will
likely be across E ma ri, where some radiational cooling can
occur initially. Overnight mins range from the upper 50s in
these cooler spots to the low 60s elsewhere due to the increased
cloud cover.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Details...

Friday and Saturday... Moderate confidence.

During Friday and Saturday short waves move eastward thru our area,
with the upper ridge axis shifting offshore and upper trough moving
into the great lakes region, gradually approaching our area. Surface
high pressure slides further offshore while surface low churns thru
northern great lakes region, heading towards southern quebec.

On Friday a warm front associated with the great lakes surface low
lifts northward into our area. Southerly flow will bring deep
moisture to southern new england, with precipitable water values
increasing to around 2 inches by midday. This in conjunction with
short waves will allow for rain showers Friday-fri night. Lack of
surface-based CAPE on Friday, but surface lis drop to 0 to
-2 and k indices mid 30s. Should be primarily showers but can't rule
out rumbles of thunder. Could see brief heavy downpours.

During Saturday the surface low's associated cold front advances
eastward through our region, while upper trough approaches from the
west. Models also indicate a zone of upper difluence affecting our
area. While deeper moisture axis shifts offshore, we still start the
day with precipitable water 1.5 inches or so across the eastern half
of the area, somewhat less later in the day. CAPE values 500-1000
j kg. Expecting scattered showers with a chance of thunderstorms.

Max temps are expected to be mainly in the 70s on Friday. Airmass
warms several degrees Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 70s
to mid 80s. High dew points should contribute to areas of fog each
night early morning.

Anticipating a drying trend Saturday night, however models hint at
potential for a weak surface low developing along the front in
northern new england as the upper trough passes thru new england, so
this could keep some clouds and a chance for light rain in our area
at least early. Patchy fog possible.

Sunday through Wednesday...

upper trough lifts out during the Sunday with surface high pressure
building east into the area during Sunday and Monday. So
anticipating a period of mainly dry weather. Then the high moves
offshore Monday night and Tuesday, with increasing moisture later
Tuesday as another short wave and cold front approach from the west.

This could bring our next round of showers for late Tuesday-tue
night and Wednesday.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ...

tonight into tomorrow... High confidence.VFR except some very
patchy ground fog early am mainly at typically prone terminals.

Winds shift lightly W during the day except sea breezes along
coast.

Tomorrow night... Moderate confidence.

Area of rainfall accompanied by a mix of MVFR ifr conditions
late, especially during the early Fri morning hours.VFR to
start the overnight. Winds shift to the s.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Sea breeze development
expected for thu.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday through Monday... Moderate confidence.

Friday... Trending to MVFR ifr in showers, scattered thunderstorms
and areas of fog.

Saturday... MVFR ifr to start. Improving toVFR, except for possibly
the CAPE and islands where MVFR ifr could linger thru the day. Then
localized MVFR ifr Saturday night in patchy fog possible.

Sunday and Monday...VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Noting seas have reached 8-9 ft along the open ocean waters S of
s new england as hurricane gert begins its E shift. This will
allow these seas to gradually recede through the overnight
hours. Small craft advisories continue, but will be able to be
dropped as the night progresses. Otherwise, mainly quiet
boating weather continued into tomorrow night after these seas
recede.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday...

winds seas below SCA thresholds to start, however during late
Friday Fri night may see some southerly wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas
building to 3-5 feet Friday night. Increasing chance of showers west
to east during Friday. A small craft advisory may be needed. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms Friday night and reduced visibility
in areas of fog.

Saturday...

lingering showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday, with reduced
visibility in patchy fog. Seas 3 to 6 feet on the outer waters,
and possibly the exposed portions of the southern waters,
subsiding during Sat night. Southerly winds Saturday turn to the
west Saturday night with gusts to 25 kts possible. A small
craft advisory may be needed.

Sunday and Monday...

high pressure builds over the waters. Winds and seas expected to be
below SCA thresholds. Isolated showers possible early Sunday, but
these move off to the east during the morning.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am edt
Thursday for anz254>256.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 3 am edt
Thursday for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Doody nmb
near term... Doody dunten
short term... Doody
long term... Nmb
aviation... Doody nmb
marine... Doody nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi100 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 67°F1 ft1015.6 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi54 min N 12 G 14 69°F 68°F2 ft1015.8 hPa (+1.0)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi44 min 70°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.8)
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi44 min NW 5.1 G 6 63°F 1016 hPa (+0.7)51°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi59 min NW 1 61°F 1017 hPa52°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi38 min 66°F3 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi100 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 64°F3 ft1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi51 minNNW 510.00 miFair61°F48°F65%1015.7 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi50 minN 910.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F46°F44%1016.5 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair65°F46°F52%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W3CalmSW3W3CalmNW8NW8NW11NW8NW13N11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW6SW6SW7W5SW8W3CalmS8S6SW9SW11SW8SW5SW3SW7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5S3SE9SE7SE5SE8SE5SE4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
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Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:34 AM EDT     8.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:36 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     10.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.200.31.63.45.47.38.58.67.6642.10.70.51.73.65.77.89.5109.37.75.6

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:36 AM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:38 AM EDT     -0.34 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.3-0.20.20.40.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.40.40.40.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.