Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:13PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:41 AM EDT (05:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:15AMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Rest of tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will move east of the waters tonight. Low pres will approach the waters from the west Mon...with a secondary low pres forming off the mid atlc coast that will pass southeast of nantucket Mon night. Weak high pres will follow Tue shifting east Tue night. A cold front will approach from the west on Wed...passing E of the waters on Thu. Southwesterly winds will follow on Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 290208
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1008 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
Isolated spot showers mainly across central and northern
massachusetts will come to an end early this evening. Otherwise,
dry weather is expected tonight, but a fast moving low pressure
system will bring a period of widespread rain and unseasonably
cool temperatures to the region on memorial day. Upper low and
cold pool linger during the mid and late week over the great
lakes and northeast usa while surface high pressure builds in. A
couple of weak cold fronts are possible during this time
bringing showers and possibly thunderstorms. Otherwise fair
weather with near seasonable temperatures.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Overall trend in the forecast remains on track for this evening.

Dry weather will prevail with temperatures remaining in the
50s. Continue to watch precipitation moving up from northern nj
into ny state as coastal low develops off the mid-atlantic
coast. As the low moves to the northeast tonight, surface flow
will turn more to the east increasing low level moisture. May
have to watch for patchy drizzle along the east coast.

Previous discussion...

lots of mid and high clouds over the region, and a look upstream
on the satellite images shows more of the same. Clouds may trend
lower after midnight, but aside from a stray sprinkle we expect
fair and dry weather. Low temps should bottom out between 50 and
55 in most locales.

Light east winds in northeast mass this evening and south winds
across the rest of southern new england. All areas should trend
to winds from the south or southeast overnight.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
***period of widespread rain overspreads the region from west to
east through early afternoon on memorial day with unseasonably
cool temps***
Monday memorial day ...

a shortwave approaches the region on west to southwest flow
aloft, which increases the forcing for ascent. This coupled with
a modest ese low level jet and pwats 1+ standard deviations
above normal, will allow rain to overspread the region. Timing
still uncertain given model differences, but a period of
widespread rain should overspread the region Monday morning
through early afternoon from west to east. The rain should
taper off to scattered light showers drizzle late mon
afternoon early evening. Elevated instability parameters look
marginal for thunder, but there is a low risk for an isolated
t-storm or two in our southern zones mainly along the south
coast.

It also will be an unseasonably cool memorial day as high
pressure over the canadian maritimes will result in cool easterly
surface winds, coupled with clouds and rain. High temps will
only be in the 50s to near 60 and it will be breezy on the
cape islands.

Monday night...

shortwave and deeper moisture will have exited the region by
early Monday evening. However, moist northeast low level flow will
probably allow scattered light showers drizzle and fog to
persist into the evening across eastern new england. While most
of the scattered light showers drizzle should come to an end by
midnight, areas of low clouds and patchy fog may persist longer as
low level moisture may remain trapped below the inversion. Low
temps will mainly be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Big picture...

longwave scale maintains a ridge west trough east pattern for much
of the long term period. Shortwave scale shows a closed low slowly
moving from the great lakes into eastern canada, maintaining a
cyclonic flow over the northeast usa and especially new england
through Saturday. Several shortwaves move through this flow. One
additional shortwave dives south from the canadian arctic and over
the northeast usa Sunday as the closed low moves off.

Mass fields are similar among the long-range models through
Thursday, but differ in handling the Sunday shortwave. Thermal
fields are similar through Thursday. This brings moderate-high
confidence in the overall synoptic pattern through Thursday. Low
confidence in events for next weekend.

Details...

Tuesday through Friday...

upper low and associated cold pool remain to our west Tuesday but
move over us Wednesday through Friday. Multiple shortwaves move
through the flow Tuesday through Friday, and exact timing at this
stage is difficult. Already some model timing differences from the
12z suite yesterday. At this time, the best chance of shortwave
passages along with associated surface fronts troughs would be
Wednesday and Friday. Convection firing over upstate ny and pa
Tuesday could work into our area later Tuesday.

Precipitable water values are highest Tuesday, then diminish
Wednesday and Thursday. Pw values return in surges Friday afternoon
and Sunday afternoon. The cold pool will aid in destabilizing the
airmass each day, with expected low level heating on Wednesday
bringing the greatest destabilization. Convective parameters show
increasing instability on Tuesday, greater instability Wednesday,
stable air Thursday, and returning instability Friday. This
suggests scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Friday.

We note that SPC shows a marginal risk of severe wx just to our west
on their day 3 outlook for Tuesday. Conditions do seem more
favorable to our west and less favorable over our area. But western
mass and adjacent ct are close to the outlooked area and will need
to be monitored as Tuesday gets closer. It is possible a squall line
or bow could develop to our west and then move into the adjacent
areas late in the day. In such a case, the concern would be for
straight-line winds late in the day.

The Friday cold front stalls south of new england Friday night early
Saturday.

Saturday-Sunday...

high pressure brings a brief break in unsettled weather Saturday.

Upper low sweeping south from the canadian arctic approaches
our area on Sunday. This in turn generates a wave along the
stalled cold front. The rain shield with this wave moves across
our area on Sunday. As noted above, low confidence in this
solution due to run- to-run variations.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

tonight... Low confidence. We kept things mainlyVFR based on
observations from upstream where skies show mainly mid-level
clouds. Some of the guidance brings in a lot of ifr to even
lifr conditions. Certainly possible, but not enough confidence
to go that pessimistic given easterly flow and best moisture
remaining to our southwest.

Monday and Monday night... Moderate to high confidence. MVFR to
ifr conditions overspread the region through the morning and
into the early afternoon in a period of widespread rain. There
also is a low risk for an embedded t-storm or two, mainly near
the south coast on mon. Easterly wind gusts around 20 knots are
expected on the coast, with up to 25 knots across portions of
the CAPE islands.

The rain will taper off to light showers drizzle from west to
east late Monday afternoon early evening. However, MVFR- ifr
conditions may persist for much of Mon night with the lowest
conditions most likely on the coast.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl taf... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

GenerallyVFR. Potential for brief ifr in early morning fog.

Potential for MVFR CIGS vsbys in afternoon evening showers and
scattered t-storms. Best chance for the latter will be in
western central mass and northern connecticut. Least chance for
showers tstms will be Thursday.

South winds Tuesday, becoming southwest Wednesday, west Thursday,
and southwest Friday. All winds should be less than 20 knots.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

tonight... High confidence. The ridge of high pressure will
continue to move east of the waters. However, pressure gradient
will remain weak enough to keep winds seas below small craft
advisory thresholds for most of the overnight hours.

Monday... Moderate to high confidence. High pressure building
across the canadian maritimes coupled with a wave of low
pressure passing to our south will generate easterly wind gusts
around 25 knots for many waters on Monday. Therefore, small
craft headlines posted for many of our waters. Easterly fetch
will also build seas between 3 and 6 feet across our open
waters. The strongest wind gusts seas will be across our
southern waters. Rain and patchy fog is also expected to develop
and an isolated t-storm or two can not be ruled out Monday
across our southern waters.

Monday night... Moderate to high confidence. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish later Monday evening and especially after
midnight as disturbance moves away from the region and pressure
gradient weakens. Areas of fog may persist into early Tue am
reducing vsbys for mariners.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday through Friday...

winds less than 25 knots and seas less than 5 feet through the
period. Scattered afternoon showers possible. Water temps may weaken
most thunderstorms that approach the coastline, but one or two
storms could briefly affect the waters.

Tides coastal flooding
Latest observations continue to show a storm surge just over a
half foot along the eastern ma coast. Another high astro tide of
12.0 feet occurs just after 2 am in boston. While that is a bit
lower than the last two nights, there will be a little more of
an onshore component and probably a storm surge of a half foot
or even a bit more. While no significant problems are expected,
very minor nuisance coastal flooding is possible along the most
vulnerable shore roads along the eastern ma coast. Therefore,
have opted to go with another coastal flood statement.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am to 8 pm edt Monday for
anz231>235-237.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Monday to 2 am edt Tuesday for
anz250.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Monday to 2 am edt Tuesday for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb frank
near term... Frank dunten
short term... Frank
long term... Dunten
aviation... Wtb frank
marine... Wtb frank
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi98 min SSE 12 G 14 53°F 51°F3 ft1015 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi52 min SE 9.7 G 12 54°F 53°F2 ft1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi42 min 56°F 54°F1015.4 hPa (+0.0)
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi42 min SE 12 G 13 51°F 1015.5 hPa (-0.3)50°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi57 min ENE 2.9 51°F 1016 hPa50°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi36 min 49°F3 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi98 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 50°F 51°F4 ft1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi49 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast56°F48°F75%1014.9 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi48 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F48°F83%1015.6 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi48 minN 010.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5CalmCalmCalmS33CalmCalmSE6SE9SE8SE10SE10SE10SE6E4E4E3CalmSE4S4S4S4
1 day agoNW4N5N5NW4N3W4NW6NW6N4NE766SE10SE10SE7SE9SE8SE6SE8SE7SE7S8SE8SE8
2 days agoNE10N10N16
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Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
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Mon -- 02:21 AM EDT     11.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT     -1.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:04 PM EDT     9.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.59.81110.89.26.83.91-1.1-1.5-0.21.94.4799.79.27.55.32.80.7-0.20.62.5

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:51 PM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.30-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.30.10.40.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.