Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:54PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 7:41 PM EDT (23:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:17PMMoonset 6:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 716 Pm Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain and snow.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of snow showers.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will build east over the coastal waters through Wed. Low pres develops and tracks up the eastern seaboard Thu and Fri while intensifying into a gale center. NW gales develop later Fri into Sat. High pres builds across the mid atlc states Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 192259
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
659 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will bring dry and cool weather with moderating
temperatures by Wednesday afternoon. A coastal storm impacts the
region Thursday into Friday morning with a period of heavy rain and
strong winds possible. Becoming very windy behind the departing
storm Friday along with a shot of cold air into Saturday, then more
seasonable conditions return Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
7 pm update ...

winds overall light while dewpoints are well down into the teens.

Heights on the rise with ridging W support mostly clear conditions
overnight, high pressure settling in. Agree with the previous
discussion below on effective radiational cooling. Leaning towards
lowest temperature guidance going into Wednesday morning. The
warmer ocean waters, could see a bit of a land-breeze along the
e ma coast.

Previous discussion ...

dry weather will continue as a strong high pressure meanders
eastward to our south. There is a modest shortwave moves across
this evening. Humidity is rather low, so not expecting more than
some clouds. Radiational cooling should be fairly effective
overnight. Favored the lowest of the temperature guidance.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Rather chilly start to the day by mid march standards. Lots of
sunshine should permit temperatures to rebound nicely. High
pressure further offshore should result in a S to SW wind. Local
seabreezes are possible during the afternoon.

This high pressure moves even farther offshore Wednesday night.

Expecting increasing clouds, especially after midnight. Thinking
dry weather prevails, with only a slight risk for some light
precipitation late Wednesday night west of the ct river. There
is the possibility for some light snow should the precipitation
arrive before daybreak. Little to no accumulation before a
change to all rain.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
* highlights ...

- widespread rain, embedded heavy showers, thunder Thursday night
- wet snows, becoming blustery Friday night into Saturday
- mild, dry conditions Sunday
- wintry weather potential early next week, turning colder
- late week high pressure, return mild
* overview ...

see-saw pattern. Seemingly +epo with NE pacific low pressure that
aids in maintaining a +pna over western N america, pacific arctic
energy downsheared W of a baffin bay tropospheric polar vortex into
preferred h5 troughing S into the E conus. An occasional cyclonic
wave break over the W CONUS adding to forecast challenges, looking
at a late-week potent coastal storm system tapping into sub-tropical
energy and moisture. Maturing, later occluding quickly e, a brief
window of wet snows and colder air before milder air returns. But
early next week, the h5 trof reloading S as a central CONUS storm
system ejects e, could see one last shot of wintry weather before
march concludes. Meteograms continue to tell the story. Forecast
details below.

Echoing the prior long-term forecaster, continual spread in model
forecast solutions in storm morphology, spread in surface pressure
ranging between 995-970 mb as the Thursday night coastal storm
sweeps over S new england. Consensus forecast approach preferred.

* details ...

Thursday into Friday ...

coastal storm. Initial pacific-waves downsheared phasing as they dig
cyclonically through a preferred E CONUS h5 trof regime tapping into
maritime-tropical air drawing N into an initial towards maturing low
center with increasing surface pressure falls lowering heights.

Associated dynamics ascent upon a high thetae instability tongue
with precipitable waters close to an inch, expecting widespread rain
with embedded heavier showers around Thursday night. Concurrent with
low maturation can't rule out some rumbles of thunder. Likely pops,
potential for areas to see over an inch of rainfall, can't rule out
overnight nuisance flooding issues, ponding of water on roadways.

Flush probably the last of the river ice, rivers which are flowing
near-average. Fairly wet soils, expect majority rainfall as runoff.

Given consensus model forecast of a more robust system, fairly warm,
leaning towards warmest 2m temperature dewpoint guidance feeling
preceding mild air daytime Thursday plus onshore flow.

Bigger concern is the strength of the low center and respective wind
fields concurrent with expected high astronomical tides. Strong S se
h925 jet also centered around Thursday night, yet a shallow boundary-
layer inversion in place. Limits on potential mix-down of fast winds
but for sake of argument, will go with a short-duration of onshore
winds with gusts up around 25 mph, minor coastal flood impacts for
the E ma coastline around the near-midnight high tide are possible.

Unsure as to s-coastal high tide 8p Thursday and 8a Friday. Mainly
in low tide throughout the event. Perhaps a potential for emerging
impacts with the 8a Friday high tide.

Friday night into Saturday ...

se canada storm occlusion. Follow-up downsheared pacific + N stream
energy pivots, later phasing and closing off with initial energy in
association with the coastal storm. Through the E N america h5 trof,
cyclogenesis surface pressure falls increase over SE canada with
the low center occluding down towards 980 mb. Expect a trowaling
comma-head storm appearance reaching back into the NE conus. Cold
air advection with blustery NW easily mixing down to the surface,
there are two concerns: 1.) potential for high-terrain wet snows
given deformation orographic lift along w-slopes, and 2.) wind
advisories with mix layer top close to h8 where winds will be in
excess of 50 mph. Chance to likely pops, highest along berkshires
and worcester hills coinciding with ecens probabilities for 1" of
snow in 24 hours. Majority focus Friday night into Saturday morn
with pivoting secondary mid-level disturbance that later trowals
energy back W prior to ejecting E into the wide open N atlantic.

Push wind gusts around 30-40 mph, conservative for now. Broken to
overcast cloud decks, lean towards the cooler side of forecast
guidance with low wind chills in addition to winds. Coating to 1
inch of snow, again highest confidence high terrain.

Sunday onward ...

quick rebound with W SW warm air advection, end up mild Sunday with
winds becoming light, Sun and cloud mix. Watching a cut-off central
conus storm system as energy continually dips S through continual
preferred h5 troughing over E N america. Early next week looks some-
what interesting if cold air can build S as over-running continental
tropical air edges n. Perhaps a shot at some wintry weather to close
out march. High pressure seemingly lingers for the rest of the week
as temperatures become more seasonable, mild.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

0z update ... No major changes.

Through tonight...

vfr, light winds mainly out of the w-nw and dry weather. Winds
becoming light SW late.

Wednesday...

vfr, dry weather with light winds becoming ssw by late morning.

Local seabreezes possible during the afternoon.

Wednesday night...

vfr.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Lower confidence in a
seabreeze developing late Wed morning into the afternoon.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
ra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy.

Ra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Chance ra.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance ra, chance sn.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance
shsn.

Saturday night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

7 pm update ... No major changes.

Previous discussion ...

rather tranquil boating conditions across the coastal waters as
a high pressure moves E to the south of new england. Might see a
few gusts approaching 25 kt late tomorrow into Wednesday night.

Seas generally less than 4 feet through this period. Good
visibility.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain.

Friday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of snow, slight chance
of rain.

Saturday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of snow showers.

Saturday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Climate
Average first occurrence of 70 degree high temperatures (since
records began as early as 1872)
boston... ... .April 8th
hartford... ..April 1
providence... April 8th
worcester... .April 11th
average first occurrence of 70 degree daily average temperatures
daily average temperatures = (high + low) 2 (since records
began as early as 1872)
boston... ... .May 27th
hartford... ..May 10th
providence... May 20th
worcester... .May 29th

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Belk sipprell
short term... Belk
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell
climate... WFO box staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi98 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 36°F 38°F1 ft1026.7 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi52 min SE 12 G 14 36°F 39°F1 ft1027.7 hPa (+0.6)25°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi48 min 42°F 1027.7 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi42 min WNW 12 G 13 39°F 1027.2 hPa (+0.7)
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi117 min WNW 5.1 41°F 1028 hPa13°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi64 min 39°F1 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi52 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 35°F 1 ft1028.4 hPa (+0.7)21°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi98 min S 9.7 G 12 37°F 38°F1 ft1026.8 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi49 minNW 810.00 miFair39°F10°F31%1027.3 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi48 minWNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F10°F26%1027.7 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi48 minWNW 510.00 miFair39°F8°F28%1028.3 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3W3CalmW4CalmW3NW4NW5NW8NW7NW8NW10
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1 day agoW4W7W7W9W7NW8NW6CalmW4W4W4W3W6NW8W7W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
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Tue -- 04:06 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:25 AM EDT     10.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM EDT     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:00 PM EDT     9.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.35.22.80.7-0.30.324.36.99.110.310.28.96.641.2-0.8-1.102.14.67.29.19.8

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:22 PM EDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.50.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.40.50.50.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.