Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 940 Pm Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny until late afternoon becoming cloudy. A chance of light showers late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of light showers early in the evening...then partly cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow showers in the late evening and early morning. Mostly clear early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LCZ460 Expires:201711210915;;724097 FZUS63 KDTX 210240 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 940 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure system, 30.10 inches, will exit off the east coast tonight. The next low pressure system, 29.20 inches, will move east along the southern tier of Canada to just north of Lake Superior late tonight. Southwest winds will increase between the departing high and the approaching low. The attendant cold front will clear the central Great Lakes region Tuesday, ushering in another round of brisk northwesterly flow. High pressure will regain a foothold on Wednesday. LCZ460-210915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 210805
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
305 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Discussion
Strong surface pressure gradient in place early this morning as the
narrow mslp depression associated with 986mb low pressure tracking
just north of lake superior impinges on expansive anticyclone
anchored to the south and east. SW wind is commonly gusting in
excess of 20 kts preventing decoupling and ensuring temps struggle
to fall much lower than about 40 degrees. As the parent PV anomaly
begins to pivot south and east through the morning, modest
relaxation of the gradient will be countered by mixing within the
deepening boundary layer. The existing warm column characterized by
850mb temps int he low single digits and ongoing gusty SW flow will
ensure temps warmer than yesterday, at least for locations that
don't experience cold FROPA until later in the afternoon.

Strengthening dynamics as the PV anomaly wraps into the western
great lakes will strengthen the cold front as it approaches the area
with deep, but modest, fgen supported by developing right entrance
dynamics. Dynamic forcing will be strong but short-lived. With
little time to saturate the well-mixed boundary layer and high
static stability through the column to begin with, precipitation
will be quite light with 1-2 hour rain totals expected to average
just a couple hundredths of an inch. FROPA will bring falling temps
to the saginaw valley beginning afternoon with the remainder of se
michigan to follow by 4pm. Nothing more than a few flurries behind
the front. No argument with with consensus low temps falling into
the mid 20s by Wednesday morning, perhaps upper 20s in the lake
plume over washtenaw lenawee counties as well as detroit city.

Subtle shortwave ridging will build in during Wednesday ahead of a
trailing low amplitude wave to arrive Wed night. Warming low and mid-
levels will degrade overlake instability while high pressure builds
in at the surface. Any lingering lake clouds affecting parts of the
area early Wed will diminish by afternoon giving way to mostly sunny
skies and temps recovering into the mid upper 30s. Antecedent dry
column will greatly limit snow potential late Wed night into thurs
morning as the aforementioned weak shortwave transits the great
lakes. Potential compounded by the poor thermodynamic environment
for dendrite production, expect nothing more than a few hours of
flurries mainly over the saginaw valley thumb early thurs.

Pattern remains largely unchanged through the weekend as temps
moderate back into the 40s before the next, and rather dynamic, wave
tracks north of lake superior Friday into Saturday. Strong nwp
consensus on a considerably stronger low than today's suggests
another round of strong southerly winds and a round of warm
advection-type showers Fri evening.

Marine
Firm southwest winds will transition to west northwest through the
course of the day as a cold front sweeps through the region. Gusts
to gale force will continue across lake huron, especially within and
downstream of saginaw bay during the first half of the day. The cold
front will pass clear the straits prior to noon and the south end of
lake huron, lake st clair, and the west end of lake erie around
sunset. Gale gusts are expected across most of the open waters of
lake huron behind the front, with the best chances for a prolonged
low-end gale within the long fetch regime downstream of the north
arm. Wind potential will maximize during the late evening hours with
a secondary surge of cold air across lake huron. Lake-effect snow
showers will be common in the cold air behind the front. Winds will
relax early Wednesday morning as high pressure builds into the
region.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1146 pm est Mon nov 20 2017
aviation...

sfc winds have held up enough to support good mechanical turbulence
with wind gusts frequently over 20 knots. 2k ft level winds are
forecast to range from 50 to 60 knots through daybreak. With some
potential for a slight decrease in sfc winds, the mention of low
level wind shear will remain in the tafs. A cold front will traverse
se mi in the 15 to 22z time frame on tues. The front will be marked
by a wind shift to the west. A region of MVFR and low endVFR clouds
with a few rain showers will also accompany the front.

For dtw... South-southwest winds will persist through tues morning.

Gusts at times will exceed 20 knots. A wind shift toward the west is
expected with FROPA between 20 and 21z.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium confidence in cigs AOB 5000 feet after 18z Tuesday.

* moderate confidence in precip type falling as all rain Tuesday
evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lhz363-421-422-
462>464.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz442-443.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for lhz441.

Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361.

Gale warning until 4 am est Wednesday for lhz362.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez444.

Discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mann
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi81 min SSW 13 G 20 41°F 1007.8 hPa (-1.3)
AGCM4 16 mi51 min 42°F 1006.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi51 min 41°F 1005.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi51 min SW 14 G 22 41°F 1005.1 hPa26°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last
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SW10
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G17
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G20
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G29
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SW10
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G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi25 minSSW 17 G 2110.00 miFair40°F25°F56%1006.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi28 minSW 14 G 2210.00 miFair0°F0°F%1006.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi27 minSSW 10 G 1510.00 miFair40°F24°F54%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW8SW11SW13SW12SW14
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1 day agoNW13W10
G20
W11W11W11W13W14
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W14W15
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W14NW13
G18
W10
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W9W10NW8W8W6SW6SW8SW6SW8SW10
2 days agoS6S6CalmS2S2SE32NE4NE4N6N11N13N16
G22
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G29
NW11NW15
G23
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NW11NW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.