Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:58PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:13 PM EDT (03:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:30AMMoonset 6:33PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 359 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms until early morning...then showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Showers early in the evening...then a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy after midnight becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201705250815;;145755 FZUS63 KDTX 241959 GLFSC LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 359 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 29.40 INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS LOW LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AVERAGING 29.90 INCHES...THEN ENTERS THE REGION FRIDAY. LCZ460-250815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 242315
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
715 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Aviation
Very little change to prevailing conditions through the forecast
period. Episodic showers will continue through tonight and Thursday,
particulary for ptk and the detroit area. Conditions will deteriorate
to ifr late this evening. Brief periods of lifr cig possible toward
morning, especially at ptk. Timing of ifr onset is not certain, but
once it arrives conditions will struggle to improve at all during
Thursday. Wind around 10 knots will persist out of the northeast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft

Prev discussion
Issued at 352 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
discussion...

some downward adjustments to pops are worked into the forecast
covering the rest of the afternoon. The exception is in the detroit
area where numerous coverage is maintained which leaves some room
for upstream activity over lake erie to develop westward during late
afternoon and early evening. A late response in coverage due to
surface heating and convergence within the broad cyclonic flow over
lower michigan is also possible. Hourly mesoanalysis indicates a
respectable lake shadow of lower instability cast by the increasing
northeast low level flow over the region which has kept in check both
coverage and intensity of convection during the afternoon. The
impact of the short wave ridge aloft has also become more apparent
through mid afternoon. This feature is producing some subsidence and
warmer air aloft temporarily before it will be pushed northward as
the upper low begins to move out of the tennessee valley tonight.

The approach of the low will set the stage for the main portion of
rainfall during this event for SE michigan. Some initial negative
tilt in the system, and probably some convective influence as well,
will foster surface pressure falls over the ohio valley that will
sharpen the low level theta-e axis during the night. Expect
afternoon thunderstorms will diminish to showers and remain in that
character through the night. Moisture transport and forcing from
isentropic ascent will generate minimal elevated instability for
thunder but enough to replace coverage of showers during the evening
filling in to near categorical coverage overnight as the
trowal deformation structure matures. Model QPF at the lower end of
the spectrum, around 0.5 inch, is preferred due to the progressive
nature of the trowal axis and aggressive northward extension of the
dry slot toward sunrise that is already beginning to show up in
satellite imagery today.

The upper low will begin to lift out of the ohio valley during
Thursday. This will convert the trowal occlusion into more of a pure
deformation pattern through the mid levels as it pivots back over se
michigan through the afternoon. Little or no surface based
instability is advertised in model data through this portion of the
system mainly due to the surface low center passing to our south and
east keeping cool northerly flow in place over lower michigan. Low
end likely pops for showers over interior sections are expanded to
categorical through the thumb region where the deformation axis will
persist longer before diminishing and sliding eastward during
Thursday evening. This will lead to a dry period of weather, at
least for late Thursday night and early Friday. Uncertainty during
this time lies with the relatively fast progression of upper level
features for such an amplified pattern. Lower pops in the blended
guidance looks good through Friday.

Upper-level ridging is expected to push east across the great lakes
region Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon which will act to
keep conditions relatively dry as clouds scour out during this time.

The better chance for rain showers will move in Sunday, with pop
values holding on into early next week as an upper-level troughing
pattern returns and holds across the great lakes. A series of
embedded short-waves will bring on and off rain chances as cloud
cover remains mostly cloudy through the middle of the week. In
addition to the rain chances, thunderstorms will be possible for any
rain that does develop on Sunday as the GFS shows early signs of a
weak warm front protruding through southern michigan. Otherwise,
potential exists for a drier pattern starting late Wednesday into
Thursday. The GFS pushes a large surface high across the ohio valley
which would act to diminish rain chances, however, ECMWF model runs
continue to hold on to shower chances into late next week. Overall,
expect on and off rain chances through the weekend and into early
next week, with late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon being
the best chance to see diminished rain chances and even some
extended periods of sunshine.

Temperature-wise, daytime highs are expected to peak in the low to
mid-70s through the extended weekend, with a weak cold front capping
temperatures in the upper 60s by Tuesday.

Marine...

strengthening low pressure over the ohio valley tonight will lift
toward southeast michigan tonight and remain in the vicinity through
Thursday before exiting to east by Thursday night. This will
generate a period of moderate northeast winds and higher waves into
saginaw bay and southern lake huron nearshore areas. The bay
responded strongly to lower stability generated by the warmer water
compared to open lake zones and southern nearshore areas. Small
craft advisories remain in effect through Thursday. Western lake
erie will be monitored considering water temps are similarly warm.

The low pressure system will also produce a stretch of unsettled
weather producing episodic showers and a few thunderstorms during
the evening, especially near lake st clair and western lake erie,
diminishing to showers overnight through Thursday. The eastward exit
of this low will bring improving conditions by Friday.

Hydrology...

low pressure developing over the ohio valley today will lift
slowly northward to southeast michigan late tonight then slowly move
to the east by Thursday night. Periods of showers from this
afternoon through Thursday evening will produce generally .50 to
1.00 inch of rain with slightly higher amounts possible along the
eastern counties. This long duration event is not expected to
produce any significant flooding other then some minor ponding on
roadways and low lying areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Thursday for lhz421-422.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Thursday for lhz441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Bt am
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Drc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi74 min NNE 13 G 14 59°F 1000.3 hPa (-0.7)
AGCM4 16 mi44 min 59°F 1000.1 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi44 min 57°F 1000.6 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi44 min NE 12 G 15 54°F 1000.8 hPa52°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi76 minENE 104.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist60°F59°F100%1000.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI14 mi21 minNE 67.00 miLight Rain59°F57°F96%999.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi2 hrsNE 103.00 miLight Rain59°F57°F93%1000.7 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7NE9NE9NE7N3N3CalmNE6E8E6E6SE7E7E6E8NE7E9E7E11NE10E9NE10NE11
1 day agoS4S5S4S4S5S6S5S4SW8S4SE242E6E8E7E10SE8SE6E3CalmCalmN8W6
2 days agoW4CalmW6W6W5W7W12
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SW10SW4S5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.