Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:34PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 1:34 PM EDT (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 12:48AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 357 Am Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers until late afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots veering to the northwest in the evening. Partly Sunny until late afternoon...then partly cloudy with a chance of light showers early in the evening. Partly cloudy late in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201809192015;;870435 FZUS63 KDTX 190757 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure will build in behind a stalled front over the Ohio Valley and hold over northern Ontario through Wednesday. Low pressure will then organize over the central plains and deepen to 29.50 inches as it tracks into the northern Great Lakes by early Friday morning. A warm front will lift north into the region during this time frame with a trailing cold front pushing back south through the area on Friday in the wake of the passing low pressure system. LCZ460-192015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191705
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
105 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Aviation
Widespread morning MVFR stratus eroded in spots and then partially
filled back in during late morning. These clouds will continue to
dissipate through early afternoon and leaveVFR under a mix of mid
and high clouds for the rest of the day and much of tonight.

Thunderstorms dissipating over the midwest during the afternoon
supply the mid and high cloud debris before a new round of storms
develops later tonight. This activity is associated with the front
stalled south of the ohio border that begins to move northward as a
warm front tonight. The elevated nature of new convection is
expected to direct activity north of the SE michigan terminals with
the exception of mbs and possibly as far south as fnt, and then with
timing mainly after sunrise Thursday morning.

Until then, and for points farther south, the northward pace of the
warm front dictates aviation conditions late tonight through
Thursday morning. Surface dewpoint projections suggest the surface
front takes on a NW to SE configuration across lower michigan and
spends much of the morning moving south to north through the region.

Given the slow pace, the most likely scenario is some borderline
ifr MVFR fog around sunrise lifting into a ceiling during Thursday
morning until the front moves north of each terminal location.

For dtw... MVFR ceiling continues to erode during early afternoon
giving way toVFR under thickening mid and high clouds for mid
afternoon through tonight. Surface wind maintains a light easterly
component until the front stalled to the south moves back north of
dtw Thursday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less redeveloping Thursday
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 354 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
discussion...

high based showers resulting from a subtle shortwave and upper jet
support that moved through overnight have moved east of the area.

Surface analysis shows the weak cold front that moved through
yesterday has stalled out south of state. This has allowed slightly
cooler air to move over michigan under northerly flow. Mid level
height rises will creep northward over michigan pushing the upper jet
to the north this afternoon as the large area of high pressure moves
across the lower mississippi valley. This will help keep conditions
mostly dry across much of the area during the afternoon. The one
exception will be across northern portions of the CWA where an
elevated front may kick up some activity with help from moisture off
the lake, though the limiting factor will be the presence of a cap
through much of the day. Increased cloud cover with the cooler
airmass will keep high temperatures today mostly in the 70s with
locations across the northern thumb in the mid to upper 60s.

Pacific wave entering the intermountain west today will help
strengthen a developing low pressure system across the central
plains. This will draw the stalled front northward into lower middle
michigan. Flow aloft will also begin turning southwesterly with a
strengthening low level jet, which will set up a transport of higher
moisture into michigan over this front. As shortwave energy moves
through the flow and fgen begins increasing, precipitation will
begin increasing later tonight into tomorrow morning moving from west
to east along the front. Front placement looks to be across mid
michigan which will lead to likely pops across the northern portions
of the CWA and decreasing to chances across the south. There will be
thunderstorms with some severe potential during the overnight period
into tomorrow morning with enough bulk shear, increased mid level
lapse rates and stronger low level jet winds.

As the surface low lifts into northern mi tomorrow evening it will
draw the warm front further north placing southeast michigan in the
warm sector. Precipitation chances will decrease slightly as the
warm front moves into northern michigan, but believe there could
still be some scattered thunderstorm activity during the day within
the strong warm air advection. Increased instability and bulk shear
will keep a maintain potential for a severe thunderstorm threat with
any storms that develop. Surge of warm air will also bring high
temperatures tomorrow back into the upper 70s and 80s.

Upper level trough will deepen the surface low as it tracks through
the western great lakes and through northeastern ontario. Gradient
flow will be increasing Thursday night into Friday with this potent
low pressure along with a cold front getting pushed through michigan
Friday. There will be potential for a line of storms to be riding
this front as it drives through michigan and exits by late
afternoon. Main threat with this line will be damaging winds, though
already breezing conditions expected to occur during the day with
winds gusts up to 40 mph possible.

High pressure will be building in behind the front along with much
cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Dry weather looks to
continue into early next week with weak ridge translating over the
region with an expansive surface high. Below normal temperatures in
mostly in the 60s on Saturday will gradually increase each day into
Monday. Another trough and developing surface low across the plains
is forecast to send a warm front north into michigan late Monday
into Tuesday. This may bring the next shot at precipitation for
michigan, though there is still some uncertainty with how this
system plays out next week.

Marine...

a stalled frontal system over the ohio valley will promote light
easterly flow today into tonight as high pressure to its north
builds eastward across ontario. These favorable conditions will
begin to worsen late tonight into Thursday as the front moves north
and shower and thunderstorm activity increases. An increasing wind
component will also occur as low pressure organizes over the central
plains and strengthens over the northern great lakes. Much warmer
air surging north across lower michigan and lake huron will increase
stability and limit wind gusts to some extent. However, gusts to 30
knots look possible in southwest flow late Thursday into Thursday
night from parts of saginaw bay on it central lake huron.

Once the low crosses the northern great lakes and continues into
ontario early Friday morning, an associated cold front will push
southeast through the central great lakes. The front will bring
veering winds to the northwest with considerably colder air
reversing the thermal profile to an unstable configuration. The
strength of the low could support a wind field capable of gusts to
near gale force over the open waters of lake huron Friday into
Friday night. Will forgo a gale watch at this time and allow for a
more larger suite of hires model runs to hone in on the forecast
strength and position of the low pressure system as it passes north
of lake huron on Friday. Once this system passes, high pressure will
then bring more tranquil conditions during the weekend.

Hydrology...

shower and thunderstorm chances will increase gradually late today
into this evening. However, widespread activity is expected to hold
off until overnight into Thursday morning as a warm front lifts
north into the region in response to developing low pressure to the
west. The warmer and more humid air moving into the area with this
front will supply enough moisture for rainfall totals averaging 0.25
to 0.50 inches from tonight through Thursday morning. Totals at the
higher end of the range are more likely across the tri cities and
northern thumb where localized rainfall around 1 inch will also be
possible. While widely scattered showers or thunderstorms may occur
into Thursday afternoon and evening, the most significant activity
should shift north of the region with the warm front. The potential
for flooding is minimal with this activity, limited to ponding of
water on roads and minor flooding of poor drainage areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
lhz441-462-463.

Gale watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi35 min ENE 5.1 G 7 66°F 1019 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 13 mi35 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 67°F 71°F1 ft1018.4 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 16 mi35 min 69°F 69°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi41 min 71°F 1018.6 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi41 min ENE 7 G 8 65°F 1018.9 hPa55°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi39 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F62°F77%1018.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi42 minESE 410.00 miOvercast70°F59°F68%1018.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi40 minNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F57°F58%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7E9E13E9E9NE8NE9NE7SE4NW5NE4N6NE5N6N5N7N5N6NE4E5E65E4
1 day agoSE9--------------SE6------------------N5N3N342E6
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.