Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 7:38 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 359 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast in the late evening and early morning - .then becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the west early in the afternoon - .then increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Light showers in the morning - .then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon - .then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Monday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon - .then veering to the northwest in the evening. Partly Sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning - .then light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 110654 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 254 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures (50s to low 60s) continue today before returning to at or above normal Sunday into Monday.

- Compact low pressure system tracking across the central Great Lakes brings showers through this morning before a brief midday lull as additional showers and thunderstorms then redevelop this afternoon/evening. Severe weather is not expected.

- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Monday as a cold front drops through the region. This front looks to stall overhead leading to persistent rain chances into early Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Compact shortwave is digging into southern MI early this morning with associated shower activity on the CWA's doorstep at press time.
Fairly organized/coherent band of showers works across SE MI through the first half of the morning before fully shifting east after ~14Z with a narrow mid-level dry slot following as the low undergoes occlusion. Still can't rule out a rumble of thunder or two within these showers given the strength of the parent vort max and weak (<500 J/kg) of elevated instability- some lightning noted overnight as it crossed Lake Michigan/west-central MI. Lull in precip is shortlived as the now vertically stacked low wobbles toward the Ontario peninsula. Both high-res and coarser model solutions have trended more north and east with the low center compared to yesterday where they advertised it sliding directly overhead. As a result, while timing is still extremely favorable tap into peak diurnal heating, greatest upper support will reside over the Thumb down to roughly the M-59 corridor. These areas have the best potential to see scattered, to perhaps briefly numerous, shower development through the afternoon-evening. Conversely, areas to the south likely will see coverage more limited to widely scattered to isolated. A thunderstorm or two also possible among latter day activity has daytime heating supports SBCAPE between 400-600 J/kg.

Troughing vacates early Sunday as low amplitude ridging takes its place over the central Great Lakes. West-southwest return flow beneath this ridge leads to robust WAA in southern lower MI as 850mb temps climb from ~1-2C Sunday morning to ~12C Sunday evening. While ridging influence will promote a generally drier day, worth noting there is some signal amongst the high-res guidance for an area light showers work into SE MI on the nose of the aforementioned warmer, richer theta-e airmass as a subtle PV anomaly rides over the ridge.
Given the lower amplitude nature of the ridge, this feature is plausible so have added slight chance PoPs (15-20%) late Sunday morning/afternoon focused over the Tri-Cities/Thumb into the northern Metro Detroit area. Otherwise above normal temps make their return with highs Sunday in the upper 60s to around 70 further increasing to low to mid 70s Monday.

A northern stream trough sags into the Great Lakes Monday allowing an attendant surface cold front to likewise drop into the western/central Great Lakes. This front continues to look to stall over the area by midday Monday becoming the focal point for periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout much of Monday. Southern stream partially phases resulting in low pressure ejecting out of the Plains toward the Ohio Valley Monday night-Tuesday. This has the potential bring a renewed surge of moisture/lift to southern SE MI Tuesday to support increasing coverage of showers daytime Tuesday...
if the track is far enough north. Mid-range solutions are split on this more northerly track or a more southerly track closer to the Tennessee valley keeping the bulk of activity south of the state border. Regardless of which camp pans out, this low fully dislodges the stalled front allowing high pressure and drier, more seasonably average temperatures to return for the midweek period.

MARINE

Southerly gradient winds trend higher today as a low pressure system drops through northern Lower Michigan. An attendant cold front gets pushed across Lake Huron helping afternoon gusts to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria (25+ knots) over the Saginaw Bay as well as Lakes St Clair and MI waters of Erie given the warmer water temps in these areas. Some thunderstorms are also possible with this system, mainly over southern Lake Huron during the afternoon which could result in periods of locally stronger winds/waves. High pressure briefly builds in Sunday morning providing favorable marine conditions before a secondary low approaches later on Sunday. This second system offers potential for enhanced southwest flow over Saginaw Bay, and possibly Small Craft Advisory criteria gusts.
Showers and storms arrive late Sunday evening and overnight. A stationary front then settles over the Great Lake early next week offering additional opportunities for thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1152 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

AVIATION...

A compact and strong low pressure system tracking through the western Great Lakes arrives late tonight into Saturday morning.
Widespread line of MVFR showers and a slight chance of an embedded in the 8-13z window. The chance for thunderstorms is too low and short lived to put in tafs at this time. Borderline MVFR/VFR CIGS during the day hold through Saturday evening. Westerly winds increasing behind the low, with gusts of 25+ knots likely by early afternoon. Additional scattered showers develop during the day with the steepening low level lapse rates and cold advection.

For DTW/D21 Convection... A stray thunderstorm is possible within the band of showers Saturday morning due to the steep mid level lapse rates. Westerly winds increasing during the day, with gusts reaching at least 25 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Very low for an isolated thunderstorm Saturday morning.

* High for cigs aob 5000 ft after 9z Saturday.

* Medium confidence in reaching westerly crosswind threshold Saturday afternoon.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

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