Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Danvers, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:39PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:18 PM EST (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:42AMMoonset 5:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 116 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, except 2 to 4 ft at the outer harbor entrance.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, except 2 to 4 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Snow and rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will push offshore this afternoon. Low pres will develop off the mid atlc coast late today, then will push across the waters tonight and Wed. Another high will build S of the waters Thu through Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Danvers, MA
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location: 42.59, -70.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 161731
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1231 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure moves east from the great lakes today, then
redevelops off the mid atlantic coast before tracking across se
new england Wednesday. This will bring several inches of snow
to much of the interior, mainly tonight into Wednesday
afternoon. A changeover to rain is likely Wednesday across
portions of rhode island and southeast massachusetts which will
result in less accumulations here. Mainly dry weather likely
Thursday into Sunday, with a warming trend during the weekend.

Another low pressure system may affect our region early next
week with mostly rain.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1230 pm update...

no major changes to the ongoing forecast. Snow continues to
spread across western ma early this afternoon. Hrrr seems a bit
amped up for this evening which will spread snowfall all the
way to orh for the evening commute. Something to watch.

Previous discussion...

overall trend in the forecast remains on track for today. Weak
waa snow showers continue to develop out ahead of the
approaching system. Some sites across eastern ny have lowered
below 3 miles over the past hour, so cannot rule that out when
waa axis shifts more over western ma and northern ct. Still
waiting for high pressure shift a bit more eastward for this
axis to take over. Thus cannot rule some light snow showers for
the evening commute across the springfield area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
1030 am update...

latest trends in the hi-res guidance and 12z NAM has this
forecaster a bit concern on snow totals. Warmer air appears to
push a bit farther to the north and west leading to more mixing
and less snow for the i-95 corridor. This makes sense as this
system is quite progressive and a open wave leading to more
warmer air making its way into southern new england. The other
trend we have noticed is how quickly this storm will exit the
region. Thus expect precip to begin to wind down after 21-00z
which would result in less of an impact towards the Wed evening
commute. The morning commute still looks treacherous. Will
continue to evaluate the latest data but that is what the
current trends are showing.

Tonight and Wednesday...

h5 long wave trough remains positively tilted as it slowly but
steadily shifts e. Continue to see a strong jet core, up to
120-130 kt, with right entrance region pushing to the mid
atlantic coast this evening. The coastal low will take shape off
of the DELMARVA peninsula and shift ne, passing across CAPE cod
and the islands around midday or so on Wednesday.

Continue to see best and strongest lift moving across the region
late tonight through around midday Wednesday. Best snow growth
also moves across about that time. 00z model suite appears to be
in pretty good agreement in bring the low across CAPE cod and
the islands by around 18z wed, then will head to the gulf of
maine. This will place the best chance for highest snow amounts
across ne, central and W mass into NW ri and N ct. Some question
on a mix changeover to rain across SE mass and central S ri,
though looking more likely especially across CAPE cod and the
islands.

Models signal slightly lower QPF amounts, in the 0.4 to 0.6
inch range. Snow to liquid ratios of between 12 and 15 to 1
across in the interior, and 10 to 12 to 1 in much of ri and
se mass. This continues to support 6 inches or higher pf snow
over much of the region of central and northern areas, with
diminishing amounts south of a boston-hartford line due to
temperatures near freezing along with a mix or change to rain.

Have converted winter storm watches to warnings over much of the
region from boston into NW ri and all of N central and NE ct n
and w, with winter weather advisories across the remainder of ri
and SE mass to the N of the CAPE cod canal. Could see a little
snow on the CAPE and islands overnight, but should change to
rain toward daybreak through mid morning Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* cold and dry Thursday
* continued dry with a warming trend through the weekend
* another storm may bring mostly rain Monday
Wednesday night and Thursday...

coastal low over the gulf of maine Wed evening will lift into the
maritimes. Some lingering light snow eastern new eng is possible
early as sharp mid level trough swings through, otherwise drying
with gradual clearing overnight. Thursday looks dry and cold with a
mix of Sun and clouds. Somewhat breezy as well with gusty NW winds
at times. Temps in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Friday through Sunday...

looks mainly dry though the weekend. Moderating trend begins
fri with temps recovering to near seasonable normals then a mild
day Sat with temps in the 40s. Some uncertainty with temps sun
which will depend on a possible frontal passage. ECMWF further
south with northern stream shortwave across SE canada which
drives cold front through with high pres building to the north,
while GFS ggem UKMET keep boundary to the north and mild temps.

We leaned toward milder consensus of the guidance, but will have
to monitor this trend as ECMWF would suggest some ice potential
on front end of next shot of precip late Sun night early mon.

Monday...

amplified mid level trough and cold front approaches from the
west with decent pre-frontal low level jet moving into the
region. Timing this far out is uncertain but a period of rain
appears likely sometime Mon into Mon night. One caveat is ecmwf
would suggest some mixed precip ice would be possible at the
onset with cold high pres to the ne.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

this afternoon... Moderate confidence. Mainly a mix of MVFR and
vfr cigs. Patchy light snow at times western ma may lower vsbys
to MVFR. Light winds.

Tonight and Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Mainly ifr-lifr
cigs vsbys in snow, with areas of heavy snow north of a bos-hfd
line. Snow may mix with or change to rain south of a marshfield-
providence-westerly line during wed. Conditions improve toVFR
in ct and western mass Wednesday afternoon... And in ri and
eastern central mass Wednesday night. Wind gusts 20-25 knots
around nantucket and parts of CAPE cod.

Wednesday night... High confidence. Any lingering ifr lifr will
improve toVFR from west to east during the overnight.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. Morning push
will be impacted.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Morning push will be
impacted.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Thursday through Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Through today...

n winds may briefly gust to 20 kt E and S of CAPE cod through
daybreak, otherwise winds will be below small craft levels.

However, seas across the open waters up to 6-10 ft, mainly on e
swells. Small craft advisories continue.

Tonight...

expect s-se winds up to around 10 kt, shift to E after
midnight. Some gusts up to 20 kt toward daybreak across the
southern outer waters. Seas around 5 feet on the outer waters.

Mixed snow and rain developing with reduced visibility. Small
crafts continue.

Wednesday...

east winds with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet on the
outer waters and possibly on the ri waters. Rain through the
day, may mix with snow on the eastern nearshore waters toward
evening. Visibility 2 to 4 miles. Small crafts continue.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Slight chance of snow.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Hydrology
Minor flooding continues along taunton and pawcatuck rivers
where flood warnings remain in effect. A flood warning is also
in effect for the connecticut river at hartford and middle
haddam, where ice is causing some river fluctuations.

Colder weather will persist across the river basins through
midweek which will limit additional runoff, along with continued
ice jams on some of the rivers. There will be an increase of
snow pack for much of region today into Wednesday as several
inches of snow will fall.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
ctz004.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Wednesday for ctz002-003.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
maz017>019.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
maz004>007-012>016-026.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Wednesday for maz002-003-008>011.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est Wednesday for
maz020-021.

Ri... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
riz002>004.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
riz001.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est Wednesday for
riz005>007.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz231.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for anz250-
254>256.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz251.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Kjc dunten
short term... Dunten evt
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc dunten
marine... Kjc evt
hydrology... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 18 mi48 min 33°F 1030.5 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 19 mi74 min 1.9 G 3.9 30°F 40°F7 ft1031.2 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 22 mi88 min S 1.9 G 5.8 31°F 41°F7 ft1031.6 hPa (-1.9)
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 30 mi78 min S 6 G 8 27°F 1031.5 hPa (-2.3)23°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi93 min W 1.9 28°F 1032 hPa17°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi42 min 44°F8 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA1 mi25 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F21°F59%1030.7 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA15 mi24 minSSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds33°F19°F56%1031.7 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA16 mi24 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F23°F69%1031.3 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA22 mi22 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F19°F59%1032.4 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N6N7N8N8N9
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N6N8N7N5N7N7N7NW7NW6N6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4
1 day agoNW5NW6NW5NW6NW4NW7NW5NW6NW10N7N6N7N11
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2 days agoNW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Beverly, Massachusetts
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Beverly
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Tue -- 04:25 AM EST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:45 AM EST     9.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:20 PM EST     8.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.66.24.32.31.11.22.23.85.87.99.29.58.77.25.12.70.800.61.83.65.77.58.4

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:39 AM EST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:37 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:03 AM EST     0.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:42 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:58 PM EST     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 09:28 PM EST     0.41 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.20.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.20.30.40.40.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.