Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Danvers, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:04PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 8:59PMMoonset 6:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 440 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this evening...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 6 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 440 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will pass north of the region today. Low pres tracking well to our north Monday will drive a cold front across the waters Monday evening. High pressure builds in from the west Tue into Wed. NEar gale force northwest wind gusts are possible on Tuesday and Tuesday evening, especially over the eastern waters. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Danvers, MA
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location: 42.59, -70.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190829
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
429 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north of the region this afternoon.

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will move
through this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible again tonight. Summer-like heat and humidity is
forecast for Monday. A cold front will trigger scattered strong
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and early evening. This will be
followed by dry, but windy and much cooler weather Tuesday. Dry
weather continues Wednesday into Thursday afternoon with less
wind and temperatures moderating back to near normal. A period
or two of unsettled weather may return Thursday night into next
Saturday, but a washout is not expected.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
415 am update...

scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were developing
early this morning in western ny from syracuse southwest to the
pa border. They were forming on boundary that separates air
masses... With showalter indices dropping from +10 to near or
just below 0. This much more unstable air is also coincident
with a 25-35 kt low level jet. High resolution models all bring
this scattered convection eastward across southern new england
this morning, mainly along and north of the mass pike. It exits
the boston area between noon and 2 pm. Just to reiterate, not
all areas will see rain, but any showers could be briefly heavy
as they speed eastward.

Overall, skies will be partly sunny and highs will reach the
mid 70s away from the coast. Dewpoints will be climbing to the
mid and upper 50s - not nearly as pleasant as yesterday, but
not uncomfortable. Expecting south to southwest winds to gust up
to 20 to 25 mph this afternoon.

A line of showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe,
is expected to form across new york state by late afternoon.

While we are not expecting severe weather in southern new
england, there could be a few thunderstorms working their way
into franklin and hampshire counties of northwest ma toward
evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Tonight...

moisture continues to increase across our region tonight.

Dewpoint temperatures will rise to the lower 60s. That will lead
to the development of low cloudiness and fog, locally dense,
especially along the south coast, where ocean water temperatures
are still only in the lower 50s.

Remnants of convection to our west may overspread parts of
southern new england this evening. Additional showers and
scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop after midnight,
especially over ct, ri, and southeast ma, per latest mesoscale
guidance. K indices range from 33 to 35. But there is little to
no cape. Any convection is expected to be elevated and not
severe.

Monday...

a cold front will be approaching the region late Monday
afternoon and moving through early Monday night. Out ahead of
this front, low clouds and fog in the early morning should break
out into partial sunshine. If this happens, temperatures over
the interior are forecast to soar to the lower 80s. Some mid 80s
are not out of the question. Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s.

Several parameters are in place for the potential for an active
severe weather day. Abundant CAPE is forecast, with surface
based CAPE up to 2000 j kg. Winds are mainly unidirectional,
from the southwest and with 35-50 kt winds from 850-700 mb, that
is sufficient for severe convective wind gusts. While damaging
winds would be the main threat from any storms, there is some
potential for an isolated tornado, especially where low level
winds are locally backed (more southerly to southeasterly).

Based on several tornado cases we have studied, a very important
factor is the CAPE in the 0-3 km layer. These values soar to
near 300-350 j kg, which when combined with 0-1 km helicity
values of 125-175, lead to this isolated tornado potential. Spc
sref indicates relatively high probabilities of supercells and
the GFS sigtor paramater reaches 2 to 3 from central ma
northeastward into the merrimack valley. There is much that
could preclude severe weather from happening. If clouds linger
longer than expected it would cut down on heating and
instability. Also, instability could be maximized farther to the
north in central new england, with less of a threat here.

We will be keeping a close eye on this situation.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* any lingering showers t-storms dissipate by mid-late Mon evening
* dry and much cooler Tue into Tue evening with northwest wind gusts
of 30 to 40 mph and a low risk for a few gusts between 45-50 mph
* dry weather continues Wed into Thu afternoon with much less wind
and temperatures moderating back to seasonable levels by thu
* a period of two of unsettled weather may return sometime thu
night into next sat, but a washout is not expected
details...

Monday night...

any lingering scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should come
to an end by mid to late Monday evening. Otherwise, much drier air
will work in behind the cold front overnight on gusty northwest
winds. Low temperatures will generally range from the upper 40s to
the middle 50s by daybreak, but a much drier airmass will have
worked into the region by daybreak.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

an anomalous and intensifying low pressure system in vicinity of the
canadian maritimes will bring dry weather, but much cooler
temperatures. It will also be quite windy for late may standards.

The 850 mb northwest jet is on the order of 40 to 50 knots Tuesday
afternoon and evening, which is about 3+ standard deviations above
normal for this time of year. Therefore, we are confident in
northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph with good mixing and a low risk
for a few 45 to 50 mph wind gusts. Given many trees are almost fully
leaved there will be an elevated risk for some downed tree
limbs isolated power outages. Later shifts may need to consider a
special weather statement or wind advisory.

High temperatures on Tuesday will generally be in the 60s. However,
the strong winds will make it feel cooler especially after Monday s
warmth and humidity. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the
40s.

Wednesday and Thursday...

the closed upper level low near the canadian maritimes Tue will be
lifting northeast and further away from our region Wed into thu
afternoon. At the same time... Surface high pressure will be building
in from the west. The result will be continued dry weather, but
with much less wind and moderating temperatures Wed into thu
afternoon. Highs should be well up into the 60s to near 70 wed. Most
areas should break 70 on Thu away from any localized marine
influences along the coast.

Thursday night through next Saturday...

the strong southeast upper level ridge will try to flex its muscles,
but unsure how far north it will get. This may place our region in
more westerly flow aloft with perhaps the threat for a period or two
of unsettled weather, but we are not expecting a washout. Perhaps we
have a brief return to warmth humidity to by Sat ahead of the next
cold front, but too far out to say much more at this time.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

0815z update...

today... Moderate to high confidence. MainlyVFR. A band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to move across
the region this morning, mainly along and north of the mass
pike, exiting the coast by 17z. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will move into northwest ma late this afternoon.

Winds will become S to SW and gust up to 20-25 kt by mid to late
afternoon.

Tonight... Moderat confidence. MVFR ceilings lowering to ifr and
lifr overnight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms move in
from the west and southwest. Convection should be elevated and
not severe. Areas of fog, especially along the south coast,
where it may become dense.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday night through Thursday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

today... Moderate to high confidence. High pressure moving off
the coast will allow a southwest low level jet to develop.

Southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are anticipated this
afternoon. Have issued small craft advisories for these gusts
over the nearshore waters. A small craft advisory also is in
effect for the northeast outer waters for seas near 5 ft there.

A few showers late this morning and early afternoon.

Tonight... High confidence. South to southwest winds gusting to
20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Small craft
advisories end along the nearshore, but are in effect for all
outer waters as seas build to 5 ft. Areas of dense fog may
reduce visibility to below 1 nm, especially south coast.

Monday... Moderate confidence. Small craft advisories continue
for the outer waters with southwest winds gusting to 25 kts and
seas building up to 6 ft in the southern outer waters.

Scattered thunderstorms possible toward evening. Visibility
reduced to 1 to 3 nm in fog, locally below 1 nm in the morning.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers, patchy fog.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 7 pm edt this evening
for anz230>236-251.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt Monday for
anz250.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 6 pm edt Monday for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Field frank
near term... Field
short term... Field
long term... Frank
aviation... Field frank
marine... Field frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 18 mi37 min 54°F 1019.4 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 22 mi29 min S 12 G 14 53°F 51°F2 ft1019.2 hPa (+1.7)47°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 30 mi79 min S 13 G 14 51°F 1018.8 hPa (+0.5)47°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi94 min E 1 52°F 1020 hPa46°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi41 min 49°F3 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi29 min S 9.7 G 12 50°F 2 ft1020.6 hPa (+1.2)45°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA1 mi26 minS 510.00 miOvercast54°F46°F75%1018.5 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA15 mi25 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F45°F77%1019.5 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA16 mi25 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F46°F72%1019.3 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA22 mi23 minS 410.00 miA Few Clouds52°F46°F80%1020 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW13NW13NW13NW9N5W11
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1 day agoCalmCalmE4SE4SE9S5S4CalmS3SW7S4SW6S7S5S4SW7SW7NW6NW7NW5NW6CalmW4NW10
G18
2 days agoCalmCalmSW53CalmSE9SE8E6SE9SE11SE11SE5S6E5NE5SE3E4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Beverly, Massachusetts
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Beverly
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Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:31 PM EDT     9.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.810.18.25.72.70.2-1.1-0.613.35.98.29.69.68.46.541.50.10.21.73.96.48.9

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
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Sun -- 12:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:56 AM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:32 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.30.40.50.50.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.40.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.