Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:22 AM   Moonset 8:46 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404290300;;543287 Fzus51 Kbuf 282048 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 448 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-290300- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 448 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers likely early, then a chance of showers from late evening on. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves around 1 foot. Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 290708 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 308 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal wave will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area this evening. Lingering clouds and areas of fog are expected overnight into early Monday morning. A warm front will bisect the area on Monday, with partly sunny and very warm conditions from the Twin Tiers south across NE PA. The next front arrives Tuesday with a better chance for more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Remaining very warm, with well above average temperatures through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Only minor updates with the midnight update, previous discussions below.

625 PM Update...

No major changes to the near-term forecast. The only change was expanding the areas of fog development overnight through the majority of Central NY and NE PA. We are currently monitoring for any thunderstorm development in NE PA now through the next few hours; these storms are not expected to become severe. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

340 PM Update

Main concern in the near term are the potential for scattered thunderstorms this evening across the Southern Tier and NE PA.

MLCAPE values are being held in check by mostly cloudy skies and limited daytime heating from the northern tier of PA northward across all of CNY at this time. Current analysis shows only up to 250 J/kg, with sfc based LIs of 0 to -2 over the southern half of the forecast area. Bulk effective layer shear is between 25-35 kts out there this afternoon. With more clearing and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s now from Towanda south to Avoca and Hazleton...this will be the most likely area to watch for scattered thunderstorm development over the next several hours. Latest CAMs such as the 18z HRRR show t'storm development by 4-5 PM over the NY Southern Tier , with a line of storms then dropping south toward the Wyoming Valley & Poconos between 5 to 9 PM this evening. There remains an outside chance for a stray stronger storm to develop, with a possible isolated instance of small hail or gusty winds.
Guidance continues to show MLCAPE reaching 300-500 J/kg over this region before the storms move in.

Further north the rest of the evening will be dominated by clouds and occasional rain showers, with thunderstorms being unlikely due to limited/ non-existent instability. The main concern up this way across Central NY will be the front sagging south overnight, bringing a relatively cooler air mass, which combined with light winds to produce areas of fog. Overnight lows dip into the 50s.

On Monday, the latest guidance has finally come into better agreement on where the quasi-stationary warm front will set up.
Based on some of the hi-res guidance the front looks to be located right along the US-20 corridor for much of the day. Along and north of this front low clouds and stratus linger most of the day and temperatures only reach the 60s to low 70s. South of the front, the clouds scatter out by late morning, with partly sunny and very warm conditions expected. With the upper level heights building overhead any shower or t'storm development will be isolated. There will be plenty of instability (1000 J/kg SBCAPE) but no lifting mechanism to get the storms initiated. Highs range from the upper 70s to mid-80s south of the front across the Twin Tiers and all of NE PA.

Generally quiet and warm weather Monday night, with perhaps just a few showers riding across the top of the ridge. Muggy for late April with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
305 AM Update...

Upper level trough with a surface low passes through the region Tuesday night. This provides enough moisture and lift to allow rain showers to continue into the overnight hours. Instability parameters begin to fall off soon after sunset, although can't rule out the chance of thunderstorms lasting into the early part of the evening as elevated instability lingers over northeast PA. Temperatures will remain relatively mild Tuesday night with lows ranging in the 50s for most of the region.

A few rain showers linger into Wednesday morning over the eastern portion of our region as upper level trough slowly shifts eastwards.
Ridge begins to build in Wednesday afternoon with a drier air mass moving in cutting off any remaining showers. Model guidance agrees with the timing of this system making an exit. Northerly flow continues for one more night as our region will be on the front edge of the ridge. Otherwise a calm night is in store with light winds and temperatures ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
305 AM Update...

Southerly flow returns to the region on Thursday with high pressure building in at the surface. Therefore a brief dry period works its way into the region as ridge strengthens. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances return Friday evening into Saturday as an upper trough over the central US begins to advance eastwards.
Regardless ridge remains over our region with a first wave of moisture advecting into the area Friday night. Second wave moves in on Saturday setting off another round of showers. Model guidance begins to diverge for the latter part of the period.
Despite this guidance does hint at another system over the northern plains swinging into the northeast sometime Sunday night through Monday. With the ridge in place during most of this period temperatures will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s during the day. Overnight lows will remain relatively mild falling into the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Variable conditions likely till about 14Z at all TAF sites.
Uncertainity is still present overnight on which sites will mainly LIFR/IFR fog and IFR/MVFR stratus. Played a middle of the road approach at almost every site with the exception of KELM where confidence is higher in fog through the overnight.
Restrictions should lift between 13-20Z Monday from south to north then VFR.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible, becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t'storms possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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