Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 8:28PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:44 AM EDT (06:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:07AMMoonset 5:11PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 351 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning...then partly cloudy early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Light and variable winds. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening. Sunny becoming mostly Sunny in the afternoon and evening becoming clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201708180800;;535813 FZUS63 KDTX 171953 RRA GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 351 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.50 inches, will continue to move towards Upper Michigan this evening. This system will drive an associated warm front, 29.70 inches, into Lake Huron by evening. The low will then move east of Lake Superior by Friday morning, allowing high pressure to expand across the Ohio Valley behind the departing cold front. LCZ460-180800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 180259
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1059 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Aviation
Stratus will filter into area within southwest flow around low
pressure crossing through the northern great lakes. Expect MVFR cigs
late tonight through a good part of Friday with a trend late back to
vfr and eventually some clearing. These southwest winds will be a
bit gusty from mid late Friday morning through the afternoon with
gusts into the 22-26 knot range. Wind direction will also veer to a
more westerly direction during the afternoon.

For dtw... Expect generallyVFR stratus to work into area tonight,
but some potential of MVFR late at night. These conditions will hold
on Friday with improvement back toVFR from afternoon into evening.

Wind gusts to 25 knots will be possible from 240-250 degrees.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings AOB 5000 ft late tonight into Friday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 300 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
discussion...

a very moist but debris laden warm sector now overtaking southeast
michigan, the arrival accompanying a secondary low level theta-e
surge and the associated arcing line of showers thunderstorms. The
early afternoon timing of the precipitation effectively shrinking
the window for recovery. There is a narrow corridor of clearing now
migrating into the backside of this cloud debris field, allowing for
some degree of destabilization aided low 70s dewpoints. Spc
mesoanalysis indicates roughly 500-700 j kg of MLCAPE within this
zone as temperatures bounce back toward the 80 degree range. It will
be within this axis where some renewed development remains plausible
this evening as a pre-frontal trough sweeps through. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests a low coverage, as convective growth continues to
fight modest instability, with paltry low level lapse rates. The
background deep layer wind field will remain supportive of
convective organization should instability allow for more robust
updrafts, but certainly a very conditional severe weather risk at
this stage.

Mid level circulation will lift from lake superior this evening to
south-central ontario by midday Friday. Trailing shortwave pivoting
around the southern periphery of this system will track across
central lower mi overnight into Friday morning. An increasingly
component of dry air advection ongoing through this time becomes a
strong limiting factor in sustaining rainfall chances. Isolated
potential for a few showers sprinkles given the accompanying
increase in cva with this wave, but certainly nothing organized
given the downturn in deep layer moisture quality and unfavorable
timing at the diurnal minimum.

Period of 850-925 mb cold air advection emerges by Friday morning,
likely accompanied by some expansion in lower stratus. Weakly
cyclonic mid level flow augmented by the diurnal process likely
sustains a high degree of cloudiness through the daylight period,
particularly with northward extent. Moisture depth and forcing is
lacking, suggesting shower production will be limited. Firm gradient
extending out from the system over ontario will make for breezy
westerly conditions. Highs arriving largely within the 75 to 80
degree range.

Next shortwave sliding through the broaden background troughing
timed to arrive late Friday night into early Saturday. Brief uptick
in mid level dynamics with this system may prove sufficient for a
quick shot of rainfall embedded thunder, before increasing mid level
stability subsidence takes a progressive hold from northwest to
southeast through the latter half of Saturday. With good prospects
for some late day recovery, highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees will
be attainable.

Surface high pressure centered across the ohio valley on Sunday and
the majority of Monday will keep conditions dry as south
southwesterly winds help raise daytime high temperatures well into
the 80s for both days. Rain and thunderstorm chances will gradually
ramp up late Monday into Tuesday as upper-level troughing with
embedded short-waves starts to build across the great lakes aloft. At
the surface, persistent southerly winds will allow a sufficient
amount heat and moisture to build in across the state, producing
sufficient conditions for shower and thunderstorm chances. A cold
front is also expected to move through late Tuesday, which will
provide additional lift for shower and thunderstorm development.

Behind the cold front, dry air will filter back in from the
northwest, bringing quiet conditions for the late half of next week.

The cold front will act to keep temperatures capped in the 70s for a
daytime high Thursday, and if the gem and ECMWF models pan out, highs
in the 70s will persist into the weekend.

Marine...

south-southeast winds generally in the 15 to 20 knot range this
afternoon will shift to the southwest tomorrow behind the cold front
which is tracking through this evening. Post frontal cold air
advection will boost the over-lake instability profile, and allow
for peak wind gusts more in the 20 to 30 knot range. Wind and waves
will then decrease over the weekend as high pressure builds into the
great lakes region.

Hydrology...

tropical airmass sliding east of southeast michigan this afternoon,
and drying has commenced. None-the-less, scattered heavy rain
producing thunderstorms remain possible through early this evening
with leftover daytime instability. With the thunderstorm coverage
expected to be limited and progressive nature of activity, not
expecting flooding as additional basin averages look to be quarter
of an inch or less. However, localized quick half an inch to one
inch total remains possible with the strongest storms.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Friday for lhz443.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for lhz441-442.

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Friday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Friday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Mr am
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi45 min 74°F 1006.2 hPa (-0.5)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi45 min WSW 14 G 16 75°F 72°F1005.6 hPa (-0.6)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi45 min WSW 8 G 15 74°F 1006.8 hPa (-0.7)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi45 min 73°F 1005.5 hPa (-0.6)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi45 min SW 6 G 8 72°F 1005.5 hPa (-0.6)67°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi47 minSW 810.00 miFair73°F67°F83%1005.8 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi52 minWSW 10 G 1810.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1006.2 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi50 minSSW 310.00 miFair72°F66°F83%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6E6SE7E8S9SE6SE9SE6SE9S9S5S7S10SE10S12S9S7S6SW8SW10SW11SW9SW8
1 day agoCalmN3CalmN5N4CalmE5E5E4E6SE6S6SE7E6E8SE7SE8SE8SE8SE7SE3SE7E7E5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW11CalmCalmNW3N7CalmNW85NE53E7E8NE8NE6NE7N2CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.