Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:05PM Monday November 20, 2017 8:40 AM EST (13:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 6:58PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 936 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight...then becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning...then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201711200915;;674473 FZUS63 KDTX 200236 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 936 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.20 inches, will continue to lift into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure, 30.30 inches, then builds across the Ohio Valley for the early part of the week. LCZ460-200915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201045
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
545 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Aviation
Moderate southwesterly flow will persist through the forecast
period. Wind gusts to 25 knots will emerge during the afternoon
hours as diurnal mixing builds the boundary layer into higher
momentum just off the surface. After sunset, the winds in the 1-2kft
layer will increase dramatically (approaching 60kt at 2kft).

Therefore, likely a pronounced speed shear layer starting around
1kft. No restrictions due to clouds or reduced visibility.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 236 am est Mon nov 20 2017
discussion...

as alaska NW canada serve as the primary conduit of energy into the
consolidating hudson bay vortex, baroclinic westerlies will
strengthen and contract north over the next several days. During
this time, multiple mid-level impulses will track over or north of
the area with high confidence in a mean storm track north of lake
superior for the remainder of the week. Effects in southeast
michigan will be high variability in temperatures centered about
seasonal average values as a series of low impact cold front sweep
across the area Tuesday into next week. The first shortwave in this
prolonged sequence is evident over northwest canada digging into
alberta early this morning. Downstream ridging will translate across
southeast michigan forcing return flow to get underway in earnest as
high pressure slips east. 850mb temperatures are modeled to rebound
toward 5c by this evening after being below -10c 24 hours prior.

Gusty southwest gradient wind and mostly sunny skies will only help
matters as temperatures moderate by about 10 degrees compared to
yesterday, or low to mid 40s. The gradient will be sufficiently
strong to maintain a mechanically mixed boundary layer through
tonight, suggesting siding with the warmer guidance in the mid to
upper 30s. Airmass exchange will already be complete by Tuesday
raising potential high temps a few degrees further, toward 50
degrees, increasing high clouds limiting the potential to go any
higher. Once again leaned toward the warmer guidance; in this case
mos and raw ECMWF output - some members of the nwp suite actually
have snowpack and thus keep temps far too low. Cold FROPA tues aftn
will be rather uneventful as the time window for good dynamic
forcing will be just be a couple of hours as the developing surface
front sweeps through coincident with strongly convergent mid-level
forcing aloft. Chc pops remain appropriate with just a
narrow transient band of light rain transitioning to light non-
accumulating snow expected. Cold advection will dump 850mb temps
back toward -10c for Wednesday before the pattern approximately
repeats itself and a moderating trend back into the 40s to possibly
50 degrees gets underway for the second half of the week. Long range
modeling continues to suggest a couple more cold shots before
downstream effects of a pac jet extension forces the polar low to
retreat suggesting a period of milder wx to close out the final days
of the month.

Marine...

winds will remain fresh today, as the region is sandwiched between
high pressure slipping through to the south and an approaching low
pressure system from the west. The current westerly flow will back
to southwesterly early in the day. Expectations are for a corridor
of higher speeds emerging from saginaw bay into the central body of
lake huron, with sustained winds increasing to near 30 knots. Near
surface stability will be increasing as warmer air washes across the
region. Therefore, wind gust potential will be limited to lower-end
gale gusts - mainly constrained to the central half of lake huron
(including outer saginaw bay). Elsewhere, the fresh flow will
support small craft headlines. In the wake of the surface cold front
on Tuesday, the flow will veer to northwesterly with the strongest
flow confined to the northern half of lake huron - again gusts in
the 35-40 knot range. Significant waves on lake huron will peak
around 10 feet during the gale event with occasional waves exceeding
15 feet in the central basin. Otherwise, the near surface will
destabilize behind the cold front, reintroducing lake-effect showers
across the entire basin.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Tuesday for lhz421-
462.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Wednesday
for lhz441.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est Tuesday for
lhz442-443.

Gale warning from 10 am to 10 pm est Tuesday for lhz361.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Tuesday for lhz363.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Wednesday for
lhz362.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Tuesday
for lhz422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi41 min 34°F 1016.5 hPa (+0.7)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi41 min SW 11 G 16 32°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.4)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi41 min 32°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.6)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi41 min WSW 9.9 G 15 31°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.5)24°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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-12
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Last
24hr
NW10
G15
NW10
G23
NW11
G16
NW9
G12
NW9
G15
NW12
G18
W8
G11
NW7
G16
NW11
G17
NW6
G11
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G17
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G12
W7
G13
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G13
W6
G9
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G9
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G11
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G15
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1 day
ago
SW5
SW8
SW2
SE5
SE5
E7
E10
NE19
NE26
NE27
G33
N18
G30
N14
G24
N16
G24
N19
G26
N16
G27
NW15
G23
NW15
G23
NW14
G27
NW18
G27
NW14
G24
NW11
G21
NW9
G15
NW9
G13
NW8
G14
2 days
ago
SW8
S5
S10
G13
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G11
SW11
G15
SW11
G18
S14
G22
S12
G18
S16
G21
S13
G18
S13
G17
S12
G15
S15
G20
S15
G20
S16
G22
S17
G25
SW12
G21
SW15
G19
SW11
G20
SW12
G18
SW10
G14
SW8
G12
SW10
SW9
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi1.7 hrsWSW 810.00 miOvercast31°F25°F82%1017.4 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi48 minSW 1010.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1017.3 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi65 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast30°F23°F75%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W11W13W14
G19
W14W15
G22
W14NW13
G18
W10
G17
NW9W17
G23
W9W10NW8W8W6SW6SW8SW6SW8SW10SW9SW8SW11
1 day agoS2S2SE32NE4NE4N6N11N13N16
G22
N18
G29
NW11NW15
G23
NW15
G21
NW14
G19
NW14
G22
NW17
G24
NW13
G23
NW17
G24
NW11NW12NW13W10
G20
W11
2 days agoSE5SE8SE9SE11SE10SE13S14SE14S11S11S9S11S14
G20
S14
G19
S13S12S10S12S8S11S9S6S6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.