Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 4:52 PM

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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 957 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northwest early in the afternoon - .then becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.Thursday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 050937 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 537 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Decreasing clouds this afternoon and evening. Mostly sunny Monday.
Seasonal temperatures.

- Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are possible south of I-94.

AVIATION

Chaotic low clouds around early this morning as a weak cold front tracks through southeast Michigan. LIFR/IFR confined to southern tafs, but as the mainly dry front passes, drier air will begin to filter in. Will favor MVFR cigs for the bulk of the morning, but brief VFR breaks possible. Winds (10 knots) to shift to the northerly direction early this afternoon, which may slow down the cigs lifting above 3000 feet, but eventually late today/early this evening, skies are expected to clear out all together. Lowest confidence is over southern TAF sites, where some low VFR clouds could persist.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Chances for additional thunderstorms developing along the weak cold front this morning are very low (<5%), with light northwest-north winds advecting drier air into the area during the day, eventually leading to clear skies this evening.
Exact timing is uncertain, as clearing line may slow down or briefly stall out over the terminal.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling 5000 feet or less today, then low.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

DISCUSSION...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms weakened and decreased in coverage as they inched toward Se Mi early this morning, the result of the upper jet support and mid level height falls lifting north of the forecast area. The convection also become outflow dominated, leading to waning instability. The associated surface front will also weaken as it exits east of the area this afternoon, although the 00Z hi res suite all indicate lingering sfc troughing extending across Se Mi into late afternoon. Sfc high pressure will expand into the western Great Lakes today as mid level ridging builds across the upper Mississippi Valley. Ample low level moisture along/ahead of the approaching front (sfc dewpoints around 60F) will contribute to low clouds and a few lingering showers this morning. Low level cold air advection this afternoon will deepen the mixed layer, boosting cloud bases and supporting afternoon highs well into the 60s to low 70s. Persistent low level anticylonic flow associated with the inbound sfc high will eventually drive drier air into Se Mi, leading to a late afternoon/evening clearing trend from north to south. The associated north-northeast sfc winds will also advect the Lake Huron marine layer inland during the course of the afternoon/evening. This will present itself as a notable drop in temperatures.

Mid level ridging and associated sfc high pressure will be anchored over Lower Mi and Lake Huron by Monday. Occasional high clouds may be all that keeps skies outright clear. The strength of the subsidence will limit mixing depths Monday to just under 5k feet, resulting in daytime highs mainly in the mid 60s to near 70. The dry air and light winds will allow respectable nighttime cooling, both tonight and Monday night, leading to lows into the 40s.

A highly amplified long wave trough is forecast to emerge from western Canada into the Central Plains Tuesday, becoming a deep closed low across the northern Rockies/High Plains by Wednesday.
Strong deep layer southwest flow ahead of this system will drive an instability plume into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Upper jet support and strong moisture transport/convergence along a low level warm front will support increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms Tues aftn/Tues night. The northward extent of the surface based instability plume into southern Michigan carries some degree of uncertainty. While there is still a decent spread among ensemble members, the late timing of the front and easterly flow off the stable lakes suggests that surface based instability may struggle to advect too far northward into Se Mi. In light of strongly sheared environment and model uncertainty, the southern portions of Se Mi may remain on the northern edge of the SPC severe outlooks for the next couple days.

MARINE...

A weak cold front will continue to track east across the central Great Lakes this morning bringing scattered showers, a few embedded thunderstorms, and some areas of fog. Winds shift to northwest as it departs, peaking at around 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Conditions dry out as high pressure builds into the area today and takes residence through Monday and into Tuesday, maintaining light winds and waves. A more active weather pattern follows beginning late Tuesday as the next low pressure system sends a warm front across the region. This system brings a period of numerous showers and storms Tuesday night through early Wednesday with another system likely to follow for Thursday. At this time winds are likely to remain below marine headline criteria.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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