Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Baltimore, MI
May 3, 2024 10:53 AM EDT (14:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 3:11 AM Moonset 2:17 PM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 329 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning - .then light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the northeast after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening - .then a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening - .then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers - .then partly cloudy in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 031430 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1030 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Morning showers and a few rumbles of thunder exit the area by early afternoon.
- A broken line of showers and sub-severe thunderstorms develops along a cold front that will track west to east across the area between roughly 2 PM and 8 PM this evening.
- High pressure fills in briefly on Saturday offering drier weather ahead of the next weak cold front that tracks through SE Michigan early Sunday morning.
- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
UPDATE
Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the cwa this morning. Lightning observations so far have been rather limited, but a few rumbles of thunder are still possible given observed mid level lapse rates of 6.2 C/km and MUCAPE around 400 J/kg per the 12z KDTX RAOB. Individual storm motion has been SW to NE at roughly 40 mph, while the broader precipitation shield has been moving west to east and is on track to exit into Ontario by early afternoon. Drier conditions thus arrive mid-day, and PoPs have been adjusted accordingly to drop down to chance after between 16- 18z (noon-2pm local).
Upstream cold front then looks to reinitiate convective activity this afternoon, with the front currently extending from South Bend to Cheboygan. Timing of the front and associated shower/thunderstorm chances begin in the Tri Cities around 18z (2pm) with a gradual drift eastward toward Detroit by around 00z (8pm). No changes to expected intensity with storms expected to hold below severe limits.
Thunderstorms may dissipated before reaching eastern counties of the cwa with the front expected to wash out overhead, and instability waning as diurnal heating ramps down this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 631 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
AVIATION...
Upper level short wave energy, weak elevated instability and deep layer moisture advection along/in advance of surface low pressure and a warm front will sustain areas of showers this morning. Waning elevated instability will limit the risk of additional thunderstorms this morning. Area observations continue to support VFR ceilings for at least the next two to three hours. Continued influx of low level moisture along with the ongoing rain will result in increased chances for MVFR based ceilings after 15Z. A decrease in the overall coverage of showers is expected in the 15 to 18Z time frame. This will open the door to some weak diurnal destabilization, supportive of a chance of thunderstorms (mainly across Metro Detroit) late this afternoon and evening. The sfc low and cold front will progress from northwest to southeast across the forecast area between 19Z and 00Z, leading to a post frontal wind shift to the NNE along with some improvement in ceilings.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Additional chances for thunderstorms across the airspace will be more or less isolated, less than 20 percent, this morning as elevated instability wanes. Convective redevelopment is forecast this afternoon along a cold front. A scattered line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to traverse the airspace between 21Z and 01Z.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorms today.
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
DISCUSSION...
Large upper level low/trough over Central North American early this morning, with the center along the northern Minnesota border. The 500 mb low (~540 DAM) will track off to the northeast, reaching Hudson Bay Saturday morning.
Deep southwest flow will maintain above normal temperatures over southeast Michigan right through the weekend. Moisture advection has peaked out with the broad 850-700 mb Theta-E ridge axis extending north, through the Central Great Lakes. Still looks like lingering showers around today with possible thunderstorms as a ribbon of upper level PV approaches from the southwest. Severe weather not expected with weak mid level lapse rates and MLcapes under 750 J/kg.
Height rises/surface ridging expected on Saturday, leading to mainly dry conditions during the day. Low clouds trapped underneath subsidence inversion, with perhaps a bit of drizzle/very light showers toward the southern Michigan border where the higher dew pts reside. Weak height falls/cold front then on track to move through through Saturday night, worthy of chance pops, despite the bulk of the forcing over northern Great Lakes.
Western confluent upper level flow Sunday preceding an upper level ridge axis arriving early next week, supporting at least a 48 hour window of dry and pleasant weather.
MARINE...
A low pressure system will then track through the northern Great Lakes today pulling the warm front up through the region early in the day. This will allow winds to flip around to the south-southwest which will bring in a warmer airmass, helping to keep gusts down.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus on this morning warm frontal passage and may persist into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms then increase coverage once again in the evening as the cold front gets pulled through the region. Brief area of high pressure brings quieter weather on Saturday. Winds will flip around to the northeast behind the cold front tonight, but the area of high pressure will keep winds below 20 knots. Southerly winds will redevelop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through Sunday, but will turn northwesterly behind the front Sunday afternoon.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1030 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Morning showers and a few rumbles of thunder exit the area by early afternoon.
- A broken line of showers and sub-severe thunderstorms develops along a cold front that will track west to east across the area between roughly 2 PM and 8 PM this evening.
- High pressure fills in briefly on Saturday offering drier weather ahead of the next weak cold front that tracks through SE Michigan early Sunday morning.
- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
UPDATE
Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the cwa this morning. Lightning observations so far have been rather limited, but a few rumbles of thunder are still possible given observed mid level lapse rates of 6.2 C/km and MUCAPE around 400 J/kg per the 12z KDTX RAOB. Individual storm motion has been SW to NE at roughly 40 mph, while the broader precipitation shield has been moving west to east and is on track to exit into Ontario by early afternoon. Drier conditions thus arrive mid-day, and PoPs have been adjusted accordingly to drop down to chance after between 16- 18z (noon-2pm local).
Upstream cold front then looks to reinitiate convective activity this afternoon, with the front currently extending from South Bend to Cheboygan. Timing of the front and associated shower/thunderstorm chances begin in the Tri Cities around 18z (2pm) with a gradual drift eastward toward Detroit by around 00z (8pm). No changes to expected intensity with storms expected to hold below severe limits.
Thunderstorms may dissipated before reaching eastern counties of the cwa with the front expected to wash out overhead, and instability waning as diurnal heating ramps down this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 631 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
AVIATION...
Upper level short wave energy, weak elevated instability and deep layer moisture advection along/in advance of surface low pressure and a warm front will sustain areas of showers this morning. Waning elevated instability will limit the risk of additional thunderstorms this morning. Area observations continue to support VFR ceilings for at least the next two to three hours. Continued influx of low level moisture along with the ongoing rain will result in increased chances for MVFR based ceilings after 15Z. A decrease in the overall coverage of showers is expected in the 15 to 18Z time frame. This will open the door to some weak diurnal destabilization, supportive of a chance of thunderstorms (mainly across Metro Detroit) late this afternoon and evening. The sfc low and cold front will progress from northwest to southeast across the forecast area between 19Z and 00Z, leading to a post frontal wind shift to the NNE along with some improvement in ceilings.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Additional chances for thunderstorms across the airspace will be more or less isolated, less than 20 percent, this morning as elevated instability wanes. Convective redevelopment is forecast this afternoon along a cold front. A scattered line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to traverse the airspace between 21Z and 01Z.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorms today.
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
DISCUSSION...
Large upper level low/trough over Central North American early this morning, with the center along the northern Minnesota border. The 500 mb low (~540 DAM) will track off to the northeast, reaching Hudson Bay Saturday morning.
Deep southwest flow will maintain above normal temperatures over southeast Michigan right through the weekend. Moisture advection has peaked out with the broad 850-700 mb Theta-E ridge axis extending north, through the Central Great Lakes. Still looks like lingering showers around today with possible thunderstorms as a ribbon of upper level PV approaches from the southwest. Severe weather not expected with weak mid level lapse rates and MLcapes under 750 J/kg.
Height rises/surface ridging expected on Saturday, leading to mainly dry conditions during the day. Low clouds trapped underneath subsidence inversion, with perhaps a bit of drizzle/very light showers toward the southern Michigan border where the higher dew pts reside. Weak height falls/cold front then on track to move through through Saturday night, worthy of chance pops, despite the bulk of the forcing over northern Great Lakes.
Western confluent upper level flow Sunday preceding an upper level ridge axis arriving early next week, supporting at least a 48 hour window of dry and pleasant weather.
MARINE...
A low pressure system will then track through the northern Great Lakes today pulling the warm front up through the region early in the day. This will allow winds to flip around to the south-southwest which will bring in a warmer airmass, helping to keep gusts down.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus on this morning warm frontal passage and may persist into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms then increase coverage once again in the evening as the cold front gets pulled through the region. Brief area of high pressure brings quieter weather on Saturday. Winds will flip around to the northeast behind the cold front tonight, but the area of high pressure will keep winds below 20 knots. Southerly winds will redevelop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through Sunday, but will turn northwesterly behind the front Sunday afternoon.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| AGCM4 | 10 mi | 60 min | 58°F | 49°F | 30.01 | |||
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 13 mi | 54 min | NE 9.9G | 59°F | 30.00 | |||
| MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 30 mi | 60 min | 59°F | 30.01 | ||||
| FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 32 mi | 60 min | WSW 5.1G | 58°F | 30.00 | 57°F | ||
| PBWM4 | 32 mi | 60 min | 58°F | 30.01 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI | 7 sm | 57 min | E 06 | 6 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 29.98 |
| KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI | 21 sm | 60 min | NE 09 | 6 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.98 |
| KPHN ST CLAIR COUNTY INTL,MI | 23 sm | 18 min | E 06 | 3 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 30.02 |
Detroit, MI,
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