Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:14PM Thursday June 20, 2019 7:07 PM EDT (23:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:54PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 331 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Periods of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening...then mostly clear after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny...then partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201906202015;;772126 FZUS63 KDTX 200731 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 331 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over Indiana and Ohio during the morning, 29.50 inches, moves eastward just south of Lake Erie today. High pressure waiting over northern Ontario near James Bay at 30.00 inches moves southward across the central Great Lakes tonight and holds in place over Lake Huron Friday and Saturday. High pressure then drifts eastward during Sunday as the next low pressure system develops over the Plains and Midwest. LCZ460-202015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201943
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
343 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Discussion
A low pressure system tracking across northern ohio will continue to
produce light rain across the area as the associated deformation
axis slides through SE mi. Minimal QPF is expected through this time
as the best forcing, which ended up being the 925mb fgen, held south
of the state resulting in a broad weak deformation axis farther
north. A portion of the saginaw valley received up to around 2
inches of rainfall last night which has led to rises in area rivers.

This will be monitored for flood considerations moving forward.

For tonight, the backside of the mid level moisture plume will exit
east of the area with winds turning more northerly. This will result
in a rapidly drying airmass from north to south across the area
after 00z which will in turn promote a clearing trend in cloud
cover. Dewpoints will fall to the upper 40s to low 50s tonight
denoting the bottoming out potential for low temps.

A welcomed break in the rain will come Friday through Saturday (and
potentially Saturday night) as ridge amplification over the midwest
builds east into the great lakes. This occurs while a surface high
over ontario builds southward across the region. This will keep the
area a bit cooler with northerly flow off the lakes but highs should
still reach into the mid 70s away from the lake shores.

Next chance of precip will come Saturday night as the next trough
enters the northern plains. Elevated portions of the leading warm
front will begin encroaching SE mi overnight. Models are nearly all
on board with holding the leading edge of the theta E gradient over
western lower mi as the warm front sets up to our southwest. With
the feed of drier air from the surface high center over ontario,
thinking is that we may remain dry through the Saturday night
period. Will leave an entry level chance pop after 06z to account
for model deviations but wanted the zones to be dry through at least
Saturday at this point.

Upper ridge axis passes overhead on Sunday morning which opens the
door for warmer and more humid air to fill into southeast michigan.

The surface warm front will lift through by Sunday evening which
will bring am increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through
the day. Highs Sunday will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Similar temperatures and showery stormy conditions expected for
Monday as the area remains in the warm sector of low pressure
developing over the upper mississippi river valley. This low will
form in response to height falls from a negatively-tilting trough
that will swing into the great lakes in the Monday night to Tuesday
time frame. The associated cold front will bring another good chance
for showers and storms during this period. Rain chances decrease
through the midweek as drier northwest flow filters back into the
region with temperatures remaining near seasonal normals.

Marine
A low pressure system will continue its eastward track this
afternoon, allowing for periods of rain and some gustier winds
through the late evening hours. Winds will gradually shift toward
the NW with marine gusts between 15-20 knots. While winds will
diminish early tonight over saginaw bay, the southeastern waterways
will see gusts through the early morning hours on Friday. Winds,
generally from the N nw, will diminish to below 10 knots on Friday
as high pressure settles in. Terrain influenced flow will
exclusively keep winds northeasterly over saginaw bay. Dry
conditions are expected through Saturday night before the next
system arrives on Sunday.

Hydrology
Rainfall totals thus far have been well delineated by the i-69
corridor with 24 hour totals exceeding 2 inches near flint while
metro detroit reports have come in between 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Low
pressure will continue to track eastward through the ohio valley
causing rainfall to diminish in coverage and intensity as the day
progresses. Most of the additional 0.10 inches of rain today will be
focused over the counties comprising the eastern CWA border as drier
air has already begun to fill in toward the north. Area rivers have
responded to the increase in runoff with points along the huron,
saginaw, and shiawassee basins on the rise. Flooding so far has been
limited to low-lying and poor drainage areas, but will continue to
monitor the potential for areal headlines.

Prev discussion
Issued at 156 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019
aviation...

17z surface analysis places the center of the surface low just east
of fort wayne, in. The system will continue its eastward track this
afternoon allowing for periods of ra, MVFR to ifr cig vsby
reductions, and a gradual wind shift toward the nnw. The terminals
will see a gradual recovery after 19z, starting with mbs fnt being
earliest to see showers clear out and low clouds begin to break.

There will be a lag that extends beyond 00z before the remaining
terminals see showers taper off, generally by 01z. Dry air on the
backside of the low will quickly filter in helping to erode any
lingering low clouds. Although this bout of precipitation will yield
sufficient low-level moisture for radiation fog development under
clear overnight skies, winds should remain strong enough to prevent
any widespread vsby reductions of such nature, but a few isolated
areas of shallow ground fog may develop around sunrise. Confidence
is not high enough given the inhibition due to the more likely
aforementioned wind scenario, thus excluded any mention of br from
the 18z update. Did increase winds at the last minute to reflect
model trends, particularly for this afternoon and evening with gusts
of 15-20 knots possible for mbs fnt.

For dtw... Expect ifr or better ceilings to hold for the remainder of
the day as a drying trend develops by 00z. Very limited storm
potential through the TAF period and into Saturday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

* low for ceiling 200 ft and or visibility 1 2 sm or less today.

* low for thunderstorm occurrence today.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz048-
054.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk tf
marine... ... .Kk
hydrology... .Kk
aviation... ..Kk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi56 min 60°F 58°F1003.7 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi68 min N 14 G 18 60°F 61°F1 ft1002.8 hPa (+1.2)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi68 min N 14 G 17 63°F 1004.7 hPa (+1.7)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi56 min 57°F 1004.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi56 min N 20 G 24 56°F 1004.1 hPa55°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi2.2 hrsN 143.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist62°F62°F100%1003.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi75 minN 99.00 miLight Rain63°F60°F90%1003.8 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi68 minN 57.00 miLight Rain61°F57°F88%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NE7NE5NE7N6N3N4N5N6N6N4N5N5N8N6N4N6NE7N6N7N11N12N14N11
1 day agoSE6S4CalmS3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE7SE8SE6SE8SE8SE8SE6E4
2 days agoE5E3E7NE5NE4N3E3CalmNE4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE34SE5S4SE5SE6E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.