Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:52AM||Sunset 9:14PM||Thursday June 20, 2019 7:07 PM EDT (23:07 UTC)||Moonrise 10:54PM||Moonset 7:49AM||Illumination 88%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kdtx 201943|
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
343 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019
A low pressure system tracking across northern ohio will continue to
produce light rain across the area as the associated deformation
axis slides through SE mi. Minimal QPF is expected through this time
as the best forcing, which ended up being the 925mb fgen, held south
of the state resulting in a broad weak deformation axis farther
north. A portion of the saginaw valley received up to around 2
inches of rainfall last night which has led to rises in area rivers.
This will be monitored for flood considerations moving forward.
For tonight, the backside of the mid level moisture plume will exit
east of the area with winds turning more northerly. This will result
in a rapidly drying airmass from north to south across the area
after 00z which will in turn promote a clearing trend in cloud
cover. Dewpoints will fall to the upper 40s to low 50s tonight
denoting the bottoming out potential for low temps.
A welcomed break in the rain will come Friday through Saturday (and
potentially Saturday night) as ridge amplification over the midwest
builds east into the great lakes. This occurs while a surface high
over ontario builds southward across the region. This will keep the
area a bit cooler with northerly flow off the lakes but highs should
still reach into the mid 70s away from the lake shores.
Next chance of precip will come Saturday night as the next trough
enters the northern plains. Elevated portions of the leading warm
front will begin encroaching SE mi overnight. Models are nearly all
on board with holding the leading edge of the theta E gradient over
western lower mi as the warm front sets up to our southwest. With
the feed of drier air from the surface high center over ontario,
thinking is that we may remain dry through the Saturday night
period. Will leave an entry level chance pop after 06z to account
for model deviations but wanted the zones to be dry through at least
Saturday at this point.
Upper ridge axis passes overhead on Sunday morning which opens the
door for warmer and more humid air to fill into southeast michigan.
The surface warm front will lift through by Sunday evening which
will bring am increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through
the day. Highs Sunday will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Similar temperatures and showery stormy conditions expected for
Monday as the area remains in the warm sector of low pressure
developing over the upper mississippi river valley. This low will
form in response to height falls from a negatively-tilting trough
that will swing into the great lakes in the Monday night to Tuesday
time frame. The associated cold front will bring another good chance
for showers and storms during this period. Rain chances decrease
through the midweek as drier northwest flow filters back into the
region with temperatures remaining near seasonal normals.
A low pressure system will continue its eastward track this
afternoon, allowing for periods of rain and some gustier winds
through the late evening hours. Winds will gradually shift toward
the NW with marine gusts between 15-20 knots. While winds will
diminish early tonight over saginaw bay, the southeastern waterways
will see gusts through the early morning hours on Friday. Winds,
generally from the N nw, will diminish to below 10 knots on Friday
as high pressure settles in. Terrain influenced flow will
exclusively keep winds northeasterly over saginaw bay. Dry
conditions are expected through Saturday night before the next|
system arrives on Sunday.
Rainfall totals thus far have been well delineated by the i-69
corridor with 24 hour totals exceeding 2 inches near flint while
metro detroit reports have come in between 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Low
pressure will continue to track eastward through the ohio valley
causing rainfall to diminish in coverage and intensity as the day
progresses. Most of the additional 0.10 inches of rain today will be
focused over the counties comprising the eastern CWA border as drier
air has already begun to fill in toward the north. Area rivers have
responded to the increase in runoff with points along the huron,
saginaw, and shiawassee basins on the rise. Flooding so far has been
limited to low-lying and poor drainage areas, but will continue to
monitor the potential for areal headlines.
Issued at 156 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019
17z surface analysis places the center of the surface low just east
of fort wayne, in. The system will continue its eastward track this
afternoon allowing for periods of ra, MVFR to ifr cig vsby
reductions, and a gradual wind shift toward the nnw. The terminals
will see a gradual recovery after 19z, starting with mbs fnt being
earliest to see showers clear out and low clouds begin to break.
There will be a lag that extends beyond 00z before the remaining
terminals see showers taper off, generally by 01z. Dry air on the
backside of the low will quickly filter in helping to erode any
lingering low clouds. Although this bout of precipitation will yield
sufficient low-level moisture for radiation fog development under
clear overnight skies, winds should remain strong enough to prevent
any widespread vsby reductions of such nature, but a few isolated
areas of shallow ground fog may develop around sunrise. Confidence
is not high enough given the inhibition due to the more likely
aforementioned wind scenario, thus excluded any mention of br from
the 18z update. Did increase winds at the last minute to reflect
model trends, particularly for this afternoon and evening with gusts
of 15-20 knots possible for mbs fnt.
For dtw... Expect ifr or better ceilings to hold for the remainder of
the day as a drying trend develops by 00z. Very limited storm
potential through the TAF period and into Saturday.
Dtw threshold probabilities...
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.
* low for ceiling 200 ft and or visibility 1 2 sm or less today.
* low for thunderstorm occurrence today.
Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz048-
Lake huron... None.
Lake st clair... None.
Michigan waters of lake erie... None.
Discussion... Drk tf
marine... ... .Kk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|AGCM4||10 mi||56 min||60°F||58°F||1003.7 hPa|
|45147 - Lake St Clair||12 mi||68 min||N 14 G 18||60°F||61°F||1 ft||1002.8 hPa (+1.2)|
|CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI||13 mi||68 min||N 14 G 17||63°F||1004.7 hPa (+1.7)|
|MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI||30 mi||56 min||57°F||1004.1 hPa|
|FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI||32 mi||56 min||N 20 G 24||56°F||1004.1 hPa||55°F|
Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI||7 mi||2.2 hrs||N 14||3.00 mi||Light Rain Fog/Mist||62°F||62°F||100%||1003.7 hPa|
|Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI||20 mi||75 min||N 9||9.00 mi||Light Rain||63°F||60°F||90%||1003.8 hPa|
|St Clair County International Airport, MI||24 mi||68 min||N 5||7.00 mi||Light Rain||61°F||57°F||88%||1004.7 hPa|
Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SE||S||Calm||S||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||E|
|2 days ago||E||E||E||NE||NE||N||E||Calm||NE||N||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||SE||S||SE||SE||E |
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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