Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:17PM Sunday March 26, 2017 3:50 PM CDT (20:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 5:47PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ646 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 304 Pm Cdt Sun Mar 26 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cdt Monday...
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of rain. Areas of dense fog. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast 5 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of rain through around midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ646 Expires:201703270415;;121078 FZUS53 KMKX 262004 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 304 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-646-270415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 261823
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
123 pm cdt Sun mar 26 2017

Update
A few observations are still reporting dense fog, but with
occasional improvement. Expecting slight improvement through the
afternoon, so allowed the dense fog advisory to expire.

Highlighted the localized areas of dense fog in a special weather
statement. Will continue to assess, as we may need to re-issue a
dense fog advisory for later this afternoon through tonight.

The baggy surface pressure gradient will remain over southern
wisconsin all the way through Monday. Expect intermittent fog and
drizzle, along with low clouds.

Aviation(18z tafs)
Low clouds, fog and drizzle will continue to be a problem across
southern wisconsin tonight and all the way through Monday as weak
low pressure slowly crosses the area. There should be a brief
period of ceiling/visibility improvement this afternoon, then
conditions will go back down tonight. Things should improve once
again Monday afternoon, but could go down again Monday night.

A note about the milwaukee observations today: the tower
visibility is being reported as one quarter mile since it is
within the low clouds. This is the prevailing visibility showing
up in the METAR observation and is being coded correctly. The asos
is reporting surface visibility of 3sm and webcams confirm this.

Prev discussion (issued 1034 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017)
update...

calls to a few counties and area web cams informed us that there
were still areas of dense fog across lafayette and green counties,
but other counties were seeing improvement in visibilities.

Therefore, extended dense fog advy for lafayette and green until
noon, and allowed the other counties to expire. Another batch of
rain moving through south central wi should help dissipate the
dense fog.

The warm front is expected to nose into southeast wi late this
afternoon. This will help temps rise into the 50s and should
diminish the precip. Expecting light rain showers off and on
elsewhere with highs in the 40s.

Marine...

extended the marine dense fog advisory until 7 pm this evening as
low pressure tracks across southern lake michigan. This lines up
with the timing of fog headlines over the open lake. There is a
chance that visibilities could take until midnight to improve in
the wake of the low pressure.

Prev discussion... (issued 650 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017)
update...

issued dense fog advisory south central in the counties bordering
illinois closer to the approaching low with lighter winds. May
need to expand a little more north. However rain pushing north
from northeast illinois is causing a slight improvement in the
visibilities far southeast.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

ifr/lifr CIGS and vsbys are expected to persist through the day
over most of the areas as low pressure moves slowly northeastward
across far southeast wisconsin. Areas near the illinois border in
southeast wisconsin should get into the cloudy warm sector
briefly late this afternoon with MVFR cigs. Scattered showers with
patchy drizzle will continue, with more persistent rainfall in
the east.

Prev discussion... (issued 320 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

A closed mid/upper low over southeast iowa will drift across the
wisconsin/illinois border area today. The associated weakening
surface low will take a similar path, with the center reaching
southern lake michigan late this afternoon. Periods of light rain
associated with the upper divergence and 700 mb upward motion will
move across southern wi from south to north through the day,
especially east.

Expect low clouds and areas of fog and drizzle in between the rain
through much of the day, especially east. There is a chance for
dense fog, especially near the lakeshore later tonight into Sunday
morning as winds become light and the surface low moves over. Far
southeast wisconsin may get into the cloudy warm sector briefly this
afternoon, pushing temperatures into the lower to mid 50s.

Expect the low pressure to further weaken over the central great
lakes tonight. Northern areas will be close enough to lingering mid-
level circulation to warrant continuing a chance for some light rain
during the evening. This system will finally get nudged far enough
east of the area by late tonight diminishing or ending ending the
light rain chances.

Monday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Guidance remains generally split during this period. While all
models show a weak wave passing though the central CONUS on Monday,
the euro/canadian show a much more zonal pattern across the upper
midwest than the gfs/nam. Unsurprisingly, the surface low that will
be in eastern ok on Monday morning is progged to have a more ne
track in the gfs/nam and a more easterly track in the ecmwf/gem.

Therefore the track favored by the gfs/nam would bring a good chance
at precip to the cwa, bringing some modest dynamics in the form
of divergence aloft, dcva, weak waa, and even some
frontogenitical forcing in the mid to low levels. The ecmwf/gem
track would keep much of that forcing to our south, leaving SE wi
largely dry. All solutions keep the lowest levels saturated
through the period, so at the very least we're looking at another
dreary day with cloudy skies, and at worst we're looking at light
rain on an off through the day.

This is essentially the same split-solution scenario we were
looking at on Saturday morning. Citing support from the euro
ensemble members, wpc favors the flatter solution, and this seems
reasonable. However, given the track of the gfs/nam and some
support from the GEFS members, cannot rule out a chance at rain on
Monday.

Long term...

Tuesday and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Generally zonal flow is expected in the mid to upper levels as
ridging works into the region while high pressure builds in at the
surface. The biggest discrepancies in the models are in the lower
levels. All guidance shows a period of CAA from Tuesday morning
through Wednesday, but the CAA is stronger in the gfs/nam due to
the passage of the low on Monday. As such, there is a split in the
temperature forecasts with the gfs/nam about 5-10 degrees cooler
than the euro/canadian. Will lean toward the euro/canadian
solution, though will be keeping temperatures along the lake cool
to account for onshore winds.

Thursday and Friday... Forecast confidence is low.

The split solution trend continues into the end of the week. All
guidance shows a deep cutoff low in the southwest on Wednesday,
gradually working its way to the ne. In the gfs, the cutoff low
passes well to the south of the state before transitioning into an
open wave on Friday once its over the central great lakes. This
would result in generally zonal flow over our area through this
period. Meanwhile, the euro and canadian have the low transitioning
to an open wave on Thursday over the great plains, bringing much
more meridional flow to the western great lakes on Thursday and
Friday.

At the surface, this all translates to a low tracking either just
south of the ohio river (gfs), through central illinois (euro) or
through southern wisconsin (canadian). The southerly track of the
gfs keeps southern wi completely dry whereas the other tracks
would translate into copious amounts of precip across the cwa. In
fact, if the euro solution were just a few degrees cooler, it
would be showing a setup for a pretty significant snowstorm. This
far out, it's tough to favor one solution to another, so will
generally be sticking with the blended guidance and we can
reevaluate at the solution becomes clearer.

Saturday and Sunday... Confidence is low.

All guidance continues to show a split flow regime, with yet another
cutoff low over the desert southwest and a northern stream shortwave
pushing though the upper midwest. There are pretty significant
differences regarding the timing and intensity of this wave, but it
does look like a shortwave will pass the region toward the end of
the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will build into the
region in in the wake of the low pressure system mentioned in the
previous section, followed by another low pressure system.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

low clouds are expected to persist through Sunday as low pressure
moves slowly northeastward. Scattered showers with patchy drizzle
will continue tonight, with more persistent rainfall possible
tomorrow morning, especially in the east. Could see some lower
visibilities form tonight as the winds become lighter.

Marine...

the early morning expiration of the small craft advisory still looks
reasonable, as waves should fall below criteria by then as a weak
surface low moves across southern lake michigan this afternoon.

Low level moisture will continue to increase into this morning,
keeping the threat for dense fog going in the south as the low
pressure moves across. The fog will likely spread farther north,
so marine dense fog advisory has been expanded north to sheboygan.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Update... Cronce
today/tonight and aviation/marine... Hentz
Monday through Saturday... Bsh


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi50 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 40°F 1010.2 hPa (-0.6)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi70 min N 5.1 G 6 41°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi40 min NNE 5.1 G 7 40°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last
24hr
NW7
NW11
G16
NW14
G18
NW10
G14
NW7
NW4
NW4
E5
E8
G11
NE7
E5
G8
E3
E6
G9
E9
G12
E8
E7
SE4
G10
SE8
G12
SE8
G11
SE7
S5
G8
SW7
G10
SW4
G9
SW11
G17
1 day
ago
SW12
G23
S14
G21
NW25
G32
NW19
G26
NW15
G20
N10
G17
NW11
G14
NW12
G23
N14
NW11
G16
NW12
G18
NW11
G17
NW10
G16
NW11
G17
NW10
G15
N10
G15
N11
G17
N9
G13
N9
G13
NW9
G13
NW12
G15
NW10
G13
N7
NW7
2 days
ago
S13
G21
SE13
G16
SE11
G18
SE12
G17
SE9
G15
SE9
G13
S9
G14
S7
G11
S5
G8
S4
G7
SE5
S4
S4
G7
S7
G10
S10
G13
S15
G20
S12
G19
S12
G18
S8
G18
S18
G24
S18
G25
SW18
G30
SW10
G23
SW14
G25

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi65 minN 57.00 miOvercast52°F51°F100%1009.5 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi55 minN 07.00 miOvercast52°F51°F100%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrE16E13E14E10
G14
NE10E12NE8E10E8E9E8E9E9E7E8E7E5NE5NE5NE5NE5CalmN5N3
1 day agoN7NE11NE9NE11NE6E7E10NE11
G16
NE12NE12NE11NE8NE8NE8NE10NE11
G16
NE16
G21
NE16
G21
E16
G23
E18
G24
E18
G24
E15E18NE18
2 days agoSE12SE12SE20
G24
S7SE7SE9SE7S13S14
G20
S12S9S10S6S6S6Calm5SE6SW5SW10
G15
W18
G24
W12
G17
W12
G17
N7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (16,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.