Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:34PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:07 PM CST (19:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cst Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday morning...
Rest of today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of snow around noon, then snow likely early in the afternoon. Chance of snow late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight veering west early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Friday..West wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201811152300;;348667 FZUS53 KMKX 151705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-152300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 151102 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
502 am cst Thu nov 15 2018

Update
The forecast looks on track at this time, and no changes are
needed.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Lake effect clouds with ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
gradually move north northeast of waukesha and milwaukee this
morning. Area of high clouds will move into southeastern parts of
the area this morning, lingering this afternoon.

There may be a period of light rain snow showers in the far
southeast parts of the area later this morning into this
afternoon. No accumulations are expected at this time. This may
bring brief ceiling and visibility reductions to MVFR category.

Light south winds are expected today, becoming southwest and
increasing tonight, becoming west and gusty by 12z Friday.

Light snow showers are possible between 06z and 12z Friday,
mainly in northern parts of the area. Could see a tenth or two of
accumulation from these snow showers. Cannot rule out some light
freezing drizzle as well, though confidence is not high enough to
mention in tafs. Ceilings should drop to 1000 to 1500 feet by
later tonight, with brief visibility reductions.

Prev discussion (issued 341 am cst Thu nov 15 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Lake effect cloud band over parts of the lakeshore counties is
expected to gradually shift to the north northeast this morning.

Area of high clouds is expected to shift into the southeastern
portions of the area this morning, lingering this afternoon, in
association with strong cutoff 500 mb low over the middle
mississippi river valley.

Mesoscale models are indicating that a band of 700 mb to 500 mb
frontogenesis response may rotate into the far southeast counties
later this morning into this afternoon. This may help bring a band
of light rain snow showers to those areas. Brought in higher end
chance pops in the far southeast areas to account for this
possibility later this morning into the afternoon.

Models are showing good agreement with a potent 500 mb shortwave
trough pushing east southeast through the area later this evening
and overnight. There is rather robust upward vertical motion seen
with this feature. Forecast soundings from the NAM and GFS are
suggesting that the main precipitation should be light snow
showers later tonight. There may be a tenth or two of accumulation
in northern parts of the area by 12z Friday.

However, the saturation in the ice crystal growth region does get
lost at times. Thus, there may be some light freezing drizzle
that occurs. At this time, will leave this possibility out of the
forecast, but it does bear watching, as this and the light snow
showers may cause some slick roads for the early Friday morning
commute.

Long term...

Friday... Forecast confidence high.

Friday will be a blustery day across the region, with
temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 and northwest winds
gusting between 15 and 20 mph. Once any lingering early morning
precipitation ends, the daytime hours will be dry.

Friday night and Saturday... Low confidence in snow
potential amounts.

The next system of interest approaches the area Friday night.

There's high confidence that this system will have a swath of snow
with it, but nailing down the exact location remains problematic
at this juncture. Right now, believe that the most likely scenario
is for a band of snow to dive south across minnesota and iowa,
clipping southern and southwestern wisconsin as it continues to
the southeast. In this case, snow would likely begin to develop
across the the southwestern part of the state mid to late evening
on Friday, continuing east and southeast through the overnight
hours. 1-2 inches of snow would be favored southwest of a line
from the dells to madison to janesville, with a trace to inch
northeast of that line.

There are some pieces of model guidance suggesting that the band
of snow could remain mostly to our south, primarily affecting
northern illinois. Should this scenario play out, much of southern
wisconsin would see little to no snow. Needless to say, with
confidence on the low side, changes to the forecast should be
expected over the next 24-48 hours.

Late Saturday through mid-late week... Forecast confidence
moderate.

Colder air will filter back into the area behind this system, with
highs Saturday and Sunday struggling to make it above freezing.

Lows Saturday and Sunday nights will likely fall into the teens in
most areas.

A cold and unsettled pattern will continue into the early to
middle part of next week, with another frontal passage on Monday.

It does look like temperatures may moderate a bit as we get
towards thanksgiving, with highs back into the low to mid 40s.

Aviation(09z TAF updates)...

lake effect clouds with ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
gradually move north northeast of waukesha and milwaukee this
morning. Area of high clouds will move into southeastern parts of
the area this morning, lingering this afternoon.

There may be a period of light rain snow showers in the far
southeast parts of the area later this morning into this
afternoon. No accumulations are expected at this time. This may
bring brief ceiling and visibility reductions to MVFR category.

Light south winds are expected today, becoming southwest and
increasing tonight, becoming west and gusty by 12z Friday.

Light snow showers are possible between 06z and 12z Friday,
mainly in northern parts of the area. Could see a tenth or two of
accumulation from these snow showers. Cannot rule out some light
freezing drizzle as well, though confidence is not high enough to
mention in tafs. Ceilings should drop to 1000 to 1500 feet by
later tonight, with brief visibility reductions.

Marine...

nearshore waters... Issued a small craft advisory from 10z until
18z Friday for areas south of port washington, and from 10z until
00z Saturday for areas north of there. A tight pressure gradient
and low level mixing will bring gusty west to northwest winds
during this period. Frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected.

Any high waves will remain over the open waters of lake michigan.

Open waters... Gusty west to northwest winds Friday may reach gale
force at times, mainly over the southern half of lake michigan.

Any high waves will be on the eastern slide of the lake.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 4 am to noon cst Friday for lmz644>646.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 6 pm cst Friday for lmz643.

Update... Wood
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Friday through Wednesday... Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi67 min SE 1 G 1.9 34°F 1016.3 hPa (-3.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi27 min SSE 6 G 8 34°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi27 min SSE 5.1 G 6 37°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi22 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F28°F70%1014.6 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi12 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy25°F17°F74%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6
1 day agoNW9NW9W8W4W8W4W5W4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm433Calm4
2 days agoN7N7NW9N9NW10N7N7N8NW10
G14
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N8N7NW8NW8NW10NW11NW9NW8NW8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.