Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:10PM Thursday March 21, 2019 11:30 AM CDT (16:30 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday evening...
Rest of today..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing west late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest with gusts to around 25 knots late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering north 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming north 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots until late afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201903212200;;705249 FZUS53 KMKX 211605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-212200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 211410
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
910 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019

Update
Clouds will gradually erode away as we head into the afternoon.

Another cold front will push through this evening which will keep
highs on Friday in the upper 30s to 40s despite sunny skies.

Marine
A front will push through this evening as a low pressure system
passes north of the great lakes. Expect winds to increase behind
the front into tomorrow. Some gale force winds are likely over the
open waters, therefore a gale watch is in place from 4 am to 7 pm
Friday. Additionally a small craft advisory will be in place late
tonight and through the day Friday.

Winds will then calm down Saturday as high pressure settles in
overhead.

Prev discussion (issued 559 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019)
update...

the forecast is on track for the upcoming day.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

ifr ceilings east and MVFR ceilings west will hang around into
this morning, with clearing skies likely by afternoon. Another
trough and cold front will move through later in the day, with
lower ceilings possible again this evening and overnight behind
the front.

Prev discussion... (issued 329 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019)
discussion...

today through Friday... Forecast confidence is high:
rain will wind down in the east by daybreak today, with
diminishing clouds west to east in the afternoon as high pressure
briefly nudges in. Temps should warm into the upper 40s to near 50
once the clouds depart, especially in the west where there will
be more daytime heating. May only see mid 40s east with the clouds
hanging on longer there.

Another passing trough will drag a cold front through later today.

More clouds are likely for a time behind this front during the
evening and overnight hours. Mostly sunny skies are then expected
Friday as high pressure builds back into the area. Temps will be a
little cooler Friday, but still near normal values.

Friday night through Saturday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Large scale ridging pushes across the region Friday night. It
breaks down quickly by Saturday night as a mid level circulation
lifts northeast out of the central plains, toward the western
great lakes. A broad and rather weak surface low pressure will
lift northeast as well. We may see some leading shower activity
push into areas southwest of madison very late Saturday night.

This is associated with weak mid level wave approaching, along
with some elevated warm air advection.

Sunday and Sunday night... Forecast confidence is high.

The approaching surface low will merge with a strong cold front
dropping south from canada. That front is a head of a very strong
arctic high pressure system. The deeper level forcing is weak as
the short wave that was approaching the area is quickly suppressed
south as a larger open wave drops south out of canada. There's a
chance of rain as this rather weak system moves through the area
during the period. The rainfall looks light overall and shouldn't
be an issue with areas still struggling with high water levels. We
should begin to dry out quickly later Sunday night as the high
plows south.

Monday and Tuesday... Forecast confidence is high.

The colder canadian high will bring a chilly day on Monday with
highs only in the 30s. It begins to slide east by Tuesday allowing
for some moderation in temperatures. We should have full sunshine,
so that's a plus.

Wednesday and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Low pressure forms over the high plains and puts us in a milder
flow. The GFS and ecmwf... Especially the gfs... Look to be
generating the usual QPF too far out ahead of the low pressure
system Wednesday night into Thursday. It wouldn't be surprising to
see the precip hold off until Thursday afternoon evening. But,
given the uncertainty, the blended guidance will do for now. Temps
will climb into the 50s... Possibly near 60 on Thursday depending
on precip timing.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

light rain in the east should wind down by daybreak today. Mainly
MVFR ceilings will hang around into this morning, with clearing
skies likely by afternoon. Another trough and cold front will move
through later in the day, with lower ceilings possible again
this evening and overnight behind the front.

Marine...

another front will move through later today, bringing gusty
northwest to north winds later tonight into Friday. Gale force
winds will be possible over the open waters, so will be going with
a gale watch. Will be going with a small craft advisory for the
nearshore waters as well.

Lighter winds are likely as high pressure moves through the area
this weekend.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale watch from late tonight through Friday evening for lmz080-
261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-
872-874-876-878.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 7 pm cdt Friday for lmz643>646.

Update... Rar
today tonight and aviation marine... Rar
Friday through Wednesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi31 min NNW 9.9 G 13 38°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 52 mi51 min NNW 8 G 12 38°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 55 mi21 min 39°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi46 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F33°F71%1017.6 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi36 minNNW 57.00 miOvercast36°F32°F90%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW7SW7SW6SW6SW7SW7W14W14NW15NW9NW4NW10NW7NW7NW8N7N10N8N9N9N10N8N7
1 day agoW13W9SW11SW10SW10
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SW6S5S5S3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW5SW4SW5CalmSW10SW7SW6
2 days agoNW7W9W8W10W12W11
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W10W5W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW4SW7SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.