Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Darien, WI
May 16, 2024 1:54 AM CDT (06:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:29 PM Moonset 2:36 AM |
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 105 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of tonight - North wind 5 knots veering southeast early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then veering south late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night - South wind 5 to 10 knots veering west early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ600
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 160151 AAA AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 851 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Some could be strong to severe with small hail and gusty winds as the main threats. A marginal risk (1 out of 5) has been issued for most of southern WI on Thursday.
- Warming trend into the weekend with chances of rain and a few rumbles of thunder interspersed with calm, dry conditions.
UPDATE
Issued 851 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Showers and isolated thunderstorms west of the Mississippi River this evening will gradually shift eastward late evening into tonight. Latest CAMs and model soundings suggest southern Wisconsin should stay dry through at least day break Thursday, due to dry air in the low and mid levels. Mostly cloudy skies are likely overnight though, keeping temps a bit milder than last night. Could be some localized cooler spots though tonight with any holes in the cloud cover given light winds.
DDV
SHORT TERM
Issued 408 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Tonight through Thursday night:
High pressure will persist through tonight promoting dry conditions. High clouds will move in overnight as a warm front approaches from the east. Low temperatures will drop into the low 50s west to upper 40s east.
Attention then turns to tomorrow as we have a Marginal Risk for severe storms (1 out of 5) over our area . Models depict a surface low approaching western Lake Superior by Friday afternoon and dragging a sfc warm and cold front over our area from the early afternoon into the evening hours. A wedge of a warm sector should move over our area, promoting sfc dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s, amid air temperatures in the low 70s. SBCAPE ~1500 J/kg will result and the sfc frontal boundaries and PVA from a 500mb shortwave aloft should provide lift for storms. These storms should be hit or miss and fairly scattered but nevertheless look to provide a wind/hail threat, as models depict effective bulk shear around 30 knots, Tdd's around 10 degrees, and DCAPE around 700 J/kg, with modest low to mid level lapses rates just short of 7 C/km. Transient supercellular structures can't be ruled out, especially along the warm from where 0-3km SRH will be higher. Models also depict sufficient enough 0-3km CAPE for low level stretching and some low level turning in hodographs along the warm front lending a bit of credence to the supercell threat. A very conditional tornado threat exists if a storm effectively uses helicity along the warm front as well, but this threat is low relative to the wind and hail threats.
A potential limiting factor for the strong to severe storm threat tomorrow will be the skinny CAPE profiles which may allow for dry air entrainment. This may stifle some of the updrafts that try to develop.
Activity will generally move from west to east over the area between 2PM to 10PM and then exit east over Lake Michigan.
CMiller
LONG TERM
Issued 342 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Friday through Wednesday:
Friday is projected to be relatively dry over the region as surface pressure rises, height rises aloft, and the lack of a surface lifting mechanism promotes clear skies. With some broad, nebulous WAA over the region, temperatures will get toasty in the afternoon, highs ranging from 75 to 80 degrees inland.
Dry weather will remain until Saturday evening, when a weak front is expected to drag a line of broke showers and storms over the region. The timing of the front has the best CAPE axis west of our CWA, meaning activity may be on a downward trend in intensity as it moves through Saturday evening into early Sunday.
High pressure will then take root again on Sunday with continuing warmth. Beyond Sunday, the pattern looks active, as models depict deeper moisture reaching further north into the Upper Midwest amid continuing warmth and a low amplitude western US trough. This should give us multiple chances at showers and storms into the middle of next week.
CMiller
AVIATION
Issued 851 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Mainly high level clouds are expected tonight, with some mid level clouds moving in from the west by later tonight. Shower and isolated thunderstorms are expected to stay to the west of the forecast area tonight, with chances gradually expanding in from the west Thursday morning into the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are likely later tomorrow, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. A couple strong to severe storms are possible. Ceilings could briefly dip to MVFR levels with the showers and storms.
Winds will continue to decrease through late afternoon, with light and variable winds expected overnight. Winds will gradually pick up Thursday morning, becoming up to 10 knots in the afternoon, varying from out of the southwest west of Madison to southeast winds near the lake.
DDV
MARINE
Issued 324 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
High pressure will retreat northward with time ahead of approaching low pressure that will move toward western Lake Superior from southeastern North Dakota through the overnight hours. Breezy north winds will ease tonight and become light and southeasterly by daybreak on Thursday. Winds will then remain light and southeasterly to southerly as the low pressure slowly moves northeast of Lake Superior through Thursday into Friday night. Some strong thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon and evening over the southern two thirds of Lake Michigan as the low pressure drags a weak front over the lake.
CMiller
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 851 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Some could be strong to severe with small hail and gusty winds as the main threats. A marginal risk (1 out of 5) has been issued for most of southern WI on Thursday.
- Warming trend into the weekend with chances of rain and a few rumbles of thunder interspersed with calm, dry conditions.
UPDATE
Issued 851 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Showers and isolated thunderstorms west of the Mississippi River this evening will gradually shift eastward late evening into tonight. Latest CAMs and model soundings suggest southern Wisconsin should stay dry through at least day break Thursday, due to dry air in the low and mid levels. Mostly cloudy skies are likely overnight though, keeping temps a bit milder than last night. Could be some localized cooler spots though tonight with any holes in the cloud cover given light winds.
DDV
SHORT TERM
Issued 408 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Tonight through Thursday night:
High pressure will persist through tonight promoting dry conditions. High clouds will move in overnight as a warm front approaches from the east. Low temperatures will drop into the low 50s west to upper 40s east.
Attention then turns to tomorrow as we have a Marginal Risk for severe storms (1 out of 5) over our area . Models depict a surface low approaching western Lake Superior by Friday afternoon and dragging a sfc warm and cold front over our area from the early afternoon into the evening hours. A wedge of a warm sector should move over our area, promoting sfc dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s, amid air temperatures in the low 70s. SBCAPE ~1500 J/kg will result and the sfc frontal boundaries and PVA from a 500mb shortwave aloft should provide lift for storms. These storms should be hit or miss and fairly scattered but nevertheless look to provide a wind/hail threat, as models depict effective bulk shear around 30 knots, Tdd's around 10 degrees, and DCAPE around 700 J/kg, with modest low to mid level lapses rates just short of 7 C/km. Transient supercellular structures can't be ruled out, especially along the warm from where 0-3km SRH will be higher. Models also depict sufficient enough 0-3km CAPE for low level stretching and some low level turning in hodographs along the warm front lending a bit of credence to the supercell threat. A very conditional tornado threat exists if a storm effectively uses helicity along the warm front as well, but this threat is low relative to the wind and hail threats.
A potential limiting factor for the strong to severe storm threat tomorrow will be the skinny CAPE profiles which may allow for dry air entrainment. This may stifle some of the updrafts that try to develop.
Activity will generally move from west to east over the area between 2PM to 10PM and then exit east over Lake Michigan.
CMiller
LONG TERM
Issued 342 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Friday through Wednesday:
Friday is projected to be relatively dry over the region as surface pressure rises, height rises aloft, and the lack of a surface lifting mechanism promotes clear skies. With some broad, nebulous WAA over the region, temperatures will get toasty in the afternoon, highs ranging from 75 to 80 degrees inland.
Dry weather will remain until Saturday evening, when a weak front is expected to drag a line of broke showers and storms over the region. The timing of the front has the best CAPE axis west of our CWA, meaning activity may be on a downward trend in intensity as it moves through Saturday evening into early Sunday.
High pressure will then take root again on Sunday with continuing warmth. Beyond Sunday, the pattern looks active, as models depict deeper moisture reaching further north into the Upper Midwest amid continuing warmth and a low amplitude western US trough. This should give us multiple chances at showers and storms into the middle of next week.
CMiller
AVIATION
Issued 851 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Mainly high level clouds are expected tonight, with some mid level clouds moving in from the west by later tonight. Shower and isolated thunderstorms are expected to stay to the west of the forecast area tonight, with chances gradually expanding in from the west Thursday morning into the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are likely later tomorrow, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. A couple strong to severe storms are possible. Ceilings could briefly dip to MVFR levels with the showers and storms.
Winds will continue to decrease through late afternoon, with light and variable winds expected overnight. Winds will gradually pick up Thursday morning, becoming up to 10 knots in the afternoon, varying from out of the southwest west of Madison to southeast winds near the lake.
DDV
MARINE
Issued 324 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
High pressure will retreat northward with time ahead of approaching low pressure that will move toward western Lake Superior from southeastern North Dakota through the overnight hours. Breezy north winds will ease tonight and become light and southeasterly by daybreak on Thursday. Winds will then remain light and southeasterly to southerly as the low pressure slowly moves northeast of Lake Superior through Thursday into Friday night. Some strong thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon and evening over the southern two thirds of Lake Michigan as the low pressure drags a weak front over the lake.
CMiller
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJVL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN RGNL,WI | 15 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 36°F | 54% | 29.87 |
Milwaukee, WI,
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