Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gloucester, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:11PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:39 PM EST (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:25PMMoonset 11:06PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
This afternoon..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will shift E of the waters on Fri. A storm system will approach the waters from the sw Fri night and Sat, lifting slowly across the waters Sat night and Sun. High pres builds back towards the waters from the W on Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gloucester, MA
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location: 42.61, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 132000
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
300 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure moves east of new eng through Friday with a milder
southerly flow developing. A series of low pressure systems
tracking south of new england may bring a period of rain Friday
night into early Saturday and again Sunday into Sunday night,
with mixed precipitation ice possible in the interior. A cold
front sweeps across the region Monday followed by blustery and
cold weather Tuesday into Wednesday, with moderating
temperatures by Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Robust mid level low and shortwave moves across sne late
afternoon and evening before moving offshore. Forcing for
ascent is weaker than might be expected with an impulse this
strong due to subsidence from departing high pres. This
combined with limited moisture is resulting in only some light
snow and flurries focused across western new eng where better
moisture. As this mid level system moves offshore tonight, good
mid level drying moves in but low level moisture persists,
especially across the west. This may lead to some very light
snow or even a bit of freezing drizzle in western ma ct as the
snow growth region dries out. Any precip will be spotty and it's
possible it just remains dry. In eastern new eng where low level
moisture is less, partial clearing is possible overnight. Lows
will be mostly in the 20s.

Short term Friday through Friday night
Friday...

high pres continues to move offshore with southerly flow
developing which brings milder air into sne. Still considerable
low level moisture below an inversion, especially west which
will result in mostly cloudy skies in western new eng where also
a low risk for spotty light rain or mixed precip. Sunshine in
eastern new eng will give way to increasing clouds in the
afternoon as moisture spreads east. Highs should range from
upper 30s to mid 40s, mildest across SE new eng.

Friday night...

split flow regime with northern stream trough across SE canada
and strong cut off over the SE conus. Confluent flow across new
eng will keep deeper moisture south of new eng. Some light rain
is expected Fri night, especially south of the pike but
steadier and heavier rainfall will remain to the south. Lows in
the 30s but steady or slowly rising temps expected overnight.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
* highlights...

- light to moderate rain possible around Saturday
- skirting offshore storm system Sunday - Sunday night
- cold and dry Monday through Thursday
- another storm system possible late week
* overview...

not much change with respect to the overview discussion below which
was published yesterday.

Broadly speaking, evaluating temperature along potential vorticity
surfaces (2 pvu), seemingly subtle eastward propagation of a rossby
wave train. Favorable h5 trof development into the NE pacific (+epo
trends) resulting in SW advance W central canada +h85 temperature
anomalies from h2 h85 W perturbations from +enso EL nino source
regions coincident with a E propagating mjo from phase 3 to 4. Down-
sheared equatorward pv-streamers shifting into the conus, lee of the
rockies, storms manifesting further E along a sub-tropical pacific
jet. Captured, cut-off, propagating along a favorable storm-track as
colder air pv-streamers are continually downsheared E of the h5
ridging parent to aforementioned +h85 temperature anomalies over w
canada, the NE CONUS pattern has been quiet as of late beneath cold
northerlies.

But into mid-december, those cold northerlies becoming lax, there's
the opportunity for the favorable storm track to lift n, as is the
potential for secondary pv-streamers to wrap S and capture any such
storm development. Worth noting with respect to the weekend into
early next week forecast. Whether this pattern maintains is somewhat
uncertain per N pacific trends (wpo or epo) as well echoes occurring
up through the stratosphere with dominant N american ridging as the
sw heat-pump out of the pacific continues downstream across canada,
the parent strato-vortex shoved to the other side of the hemisphere.

Cpc 8 to 14 day and 3 to 4 week outlooks concerning above-average
temperatures seem to coincide with such trends.

Details in the discussion below highlighting forecast thinking along
with forecast model preference.

* discussion...

Friday night through Saturday night...

consensus forecast trend Friday night through Saturday night of n-
stream dissociated energy from a downsheared, cut-off stacked low
sweeping through the NE CONUS with a surface reflection trailing
cold front. Lead isentropic ascent emanating from s-stream cut-off
low tied into the pacific sub-tropical jet undergoing lift beneath
stable heights, wedge of high pressure, confluent mid-upper level
flow. Can't rule out chance pops with light to moderate rain given
weak mid-level ascent and support per right-rear-quadrant of a h3
jet. Quite possible a tongue of high theta-e, high precipitable
water air wedges in right ahead of the cold front prior to sweeping
new england. Yet uncertainty given how quickly the cold front sweeps
through, dry air following. Marginal thermal fields, lack of any
arctic air. Onset high-terrain freezing rain per wet-bulb processes
possible, otherwise all liquid. Waffling h5 ridging coupled with
surface high pressure Saturday night, a low confidence forecast.

Sunday through Sunday night...

if secondary n-stream follow-up pv-streamer dips further S faster,
then seemingly sooner the s-stream cut-off low pivots and wraps back
beneath lower heights, negative-tilted, promoting rapid cyclogenesis
and storm maturation closer to the S new england shoreline. However,
notable forecast model spread continues with feature morphology, a
slower pace, the cut-off low nudged out to sea yielding perhaps a
skirt of or a complete miss in outcomes. Low confidence despite a
trend towards better consensus. Confident arctic air bottled well
n w, thermal fields will be marginal. If wintry precip-types, will
need a deeper low center manifesting its own cold air downward, h85-
7 low positioning crucial in such a case. Isentropic ageostrophic
n flow from departing high pressure wedge likely aiding as well. A
couple more forecast model runs and hopefully there will be a better
idea on specifics. Higher pops towards S E coastal new england along
with stronger winds closer to the forecast low center near the 40n
70w benchmark, cyclonic motions associated, an eye on comma-head
trowaling features. Quick moving given progressive flow downstream,
looking at outcomes around a 12-hour period. Chance pops. Ensemble
mean and accompanying probability preference.

Monday through Thursday...

initial arctic blast equatorward in wake of the deepening h5 trough
over E SE canada. Blustery NW winds making it feel colder. Coldest
air Wednesday morning with high pressure in control, radiational
cooling processes. Moderating temperature trend into Thursday with
southerly winds as high pressure shifts e. Preference towards the ec
ensemble mean.

Thursday night onward...

another storm possible late-week, but too early to say on specifics.

Only worthy of a mention based on run-to-run ec consistency with
accompanying ecens trends.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ...

through 00z...

areas of MVFR ifr in light snow across western ma and ct
valley, otherwiseVFR cigs.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

MVFR CIGS across western ma and ct with a low risk for some very
light snow or fzdz. OtherwiseVFR with partial clearing SE new
eng.

Friday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR CIGS across much of the interior, especially western new
eng. MainlyVFR CIGS SE new eng.

Friday night... Moderate confidence.

Areas of MVFR ifr cigs. Chance of light rain.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
ra.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance ra, slight chance sn.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance ra, chance sn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Tranquil boating conditions to prevail through Friday night as
high pres slowly drifts east of the waters. Winds below 20 kt
and seas below 5 ft. Chance of light rain Fri night.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday through Sunday night: moderate risk for small craft
advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Chance of rain.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc
near term... Kjc
short term... Kjc
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Kjc sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 8 mi95 min E 3.9 G 5.8 31°F 44°F3 ft1033.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi49 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 33°F 46°F3 ft1033.4 hPa (+0.0)22°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 25 mi39 min SE 5.1 G 7 29°F 1033.8 hPa (+0.0)20°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 27 mi39 min 33°F 1033.9 hPa (+0.0)
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 29 mi31 min 46°F3 ft
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 32 mi54 min ESE 1.9 30°F 20°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 39 mi49 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 32°F 3 ft1034.1 hPa (+0.7)19°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 41 mi95 min E 3.9 G 5.8 27°F 45°F3 ft1034 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 49 mi39 min W 1.9 G 4.1 26°F 42°F1034.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA14 mi46 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F19°F59%1033.4 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW11NW10N9N8N8N6NW4N7N6N4N5N3NW5N4N3N6N6N4N5N3NE4CalmE5
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmN6N6NW5NW4NW4NW6NW6NW4NW3W3W4NW7NW11NW12
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2 days agoNW7N4N6N3N4N5CalmN6NW4NW6NW6NW4NW5NW4NW5CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW4SW634

Tide / Current Tables for Gloucester Harbor (Ten Pound Island), Massachusetts (2)
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Gloucester Harbor (Ten Pound Island)
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Thu -- 03:05 AM EST     7.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:59 AM EST     1.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:13 PM EST     8.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:31 PM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.367.47.97.66.553.52.11.62.13.44.96.47.78.48.275.43.72.110.91.9

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
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Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     0.35 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:47 AM EST     0.35 knots Min Flood
Thu -- 01:11 AM EST     0.35 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:55 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM EST     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:25 PM EST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:51 PM EST     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:07 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.30.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.30.30.30.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.