Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:55PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 10:01 PM EDT (02:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 11:16PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 718 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 68 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201706290315;;974157 FZUS51 KBUF 282318 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 718 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-290315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples, NY
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location: 42.62, -77.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 290114
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
914 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday through
Friday as an area of low pressure moves slowly through the area.

Another front will move in Saturday with more showers and storms
possible. Quiet weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday with high
pressure in place.

Near term through Thursday
910 pm update...

dew points are starting out low this evening, but should rise
into the middle-50s by early Thursday morning ahead of a warm
front lifting into SW new york.

We made minor adjustments to temperatures and winds overnight.

Mixing should preclude fog development. The forecast remains in
good shape.

330 pm update... Main concerns in the near term remain focused
around a few rain showers across central ny this afternoon and
early evening... Followed by a quiet night and a return to an
active period with scattered rain showers moving in NW to SE in
the afternoon and the onset of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, continuing but weakening through
the overnight hours.

Area of low pressure over the WRN great lakes will track ewd to near
michigan Thursday morning with a warm front extending to the east.

The warm front will lift to the E NE into WRN ny Thursday morning
with mainly rain showers spreading from west to NE through the
finger lakes into NRN ny. There may be a few isolated embedded weak
elevated thunderstorms, but probability is very low.

The boundary layer will deepen and become very unstable as the day
progresses and a strong swly flow ushers in a very warm and moist
air mass. Surface temperatures in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the
lower 60s will lead to sb CAPE values in the 1000-2000 j kg range.

Dynamics will be weak with deep layer shear around 30 kt... And an a
passing weak jet streak to the north. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds.

One of the main challenges will be the onset of the heaviest
precipitation and strongest convection. Will see an initial round of
rain in the morning, and a stronger set of convection over WRN ny in
the afternoon. This second round will push into the finger lakes and
mix out as the boundary layer continues to deepen. As the afternoon
progresses the mixed layer will become more unstable and additional
convection will initiate to the west. Where and when this convection
forms will be the main challenge. High resolution guidance has most
of the strong convection from the finger lakes into central ny
anywhere from 00-12z Friday. Deep layer moisture will be elevated as
well... Pwats around 1-1.5 inches... Leading to the potential for
localized flooding issues as well.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 50s. Highs on Thursday will
climb into the upper 70s and lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows thur
will only drop into the lower to mid 60s.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
230 pm edt update...

Friday will finally feel like summer with temperatures in the
low 80s across central ny and upper 80s over nepa. Friday will
be very muggy and with the flow aloft still being cyclonic, the
chance for rain continues. There may be a brief lull in activity
Friday morning, however that may be short lived as the
combination of many embedded waves aloft moving through the area
and diurnal heating across the region showers and thunderstorms
are expected to become widespread by late afternoon and last
through possibly midnight. Temps will remain in the uppr 60s
Friday night.

Saturday is very similar in nature. Showers and thunderstorms likely
throughout the day. Warm and muggy temperatures, with temps rising
into the low to mid 80s across the region. Temps Sat night will fall
into the mid upper 60s.

S

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
245 pm edt update...

minor changes made to the previous forecast. Updated with new
wpc guidance.

An upper-lvl wave will swing across the east on Sunday and
generate an environment for showers and thunderstorms across
the region. While additional shortwaves will move across the
region Monday and Tuesday these waves will be weaker in nature
and this might result in a break in the pattern. Thus, Monday
and Tuesday could be dry.

Temps during the forecast period will be near the seasonal norm.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions are expected through this TAF period. Low
pressure moving through the western great lakes will push a warm
front toward the area late in the TAF period. Overnight,
mid high level clouds will increase with a mid deck developing
at all TAF sites between 06z-09z. On Thursday, clouds will
likely scatter out across the southern terminal with some
cumulus and mid level clouds. At krme ksyr, ceilings around 6k
feet will develop early afternoon. Late in the TAF period
showers and thunderstorms may develop at ksyr krme with MVFR
restrictions possible. Not included in TAF at this time due to
low confidence and occurrence at the very end of TAF period.

Light and variable winds overnight becoming southwest Thursday
morning at 8-12 knots with gusts around 20 knots at all taf
sites but krme. At krme, winds will remain southeast around 8
knots.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday... At least periodic
restrictions anticipated in showers thunderstorms late Thursday
onward.

Saturday night Sunday... GenerallyVFR but scattered convection
could lead to brief restrictions.

Monday...VFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Bjt
near term... Bjt djp
short term... Kah
long term... Kah
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 46 mi62 min WSW 6 G 8 71°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.6)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 46 mi44 min 69°F 1016.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 75 mi44 min S 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 1016.2 hPa51°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY17 mi68 minSSE 410.00 miFair67°F55°F66%1018.3 hPa
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY19 mi69 minS 410.00 miFair68°F51°F55%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S4S4SW3CalmS8SE6SE9SE10SE7SE7Calm6W9NW8
G16
NW95444SW4CalmS4Calm
1 day agoSE5SE6S3SE9SE5S4SE6SE7S3SE5E64W7CalmW10
G16
--4W8
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G20
W83CalmW6Calm
2 days agoSE5S6SE8S4S4SE6S4S4S4E4W7
G14
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G16
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E36W4S4SE83S10
G19
S7S7S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.