Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 4:31 PM   Moonset 3:30 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 191955 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 355 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Building high pressure will bring dry weather, clearing skies, and a warming trend through midweek with hot temperatures possible Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching cold front will see chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region late Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Upper ridging and surface high pressure building into the region will bring continued dry weather and comfortable temperatures through tonight. An upper low over the North Atlantic has brought persistent overcast to much of New England, while to the west of the Taconics and Greens, much clearer skies have spread across the region aside from enhanced coverage of fair-weather cumulus over areas of higher terrain.

Following afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across western New England and in higher terrain west of the Hudson, and mid to upper 70s or even a few 80 degree readings elsewhere along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, temperatures will remain mild overnight, falling to lows in the upper 40s to low 50s in western New England, and low to mid 50s across eastern New York.
Beneath clearing skies, efficient radiative cooling may yield areas of valley fog and mist overnight. Continued stratus cloud coverage over eastern New England may reach west into the Greens, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills, thereby reducing the chances for fog.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Broad upper ridging in place over much of the country east of the Rockies will see temperatures continue to trend hotter, coming within a few degrees of daily records on Tuesday (see Climate section below for details on record values). Southerly to southwesterly low-level flow and 850-hPa temperatures rising to 10-15C on Monday will see highs at the surface reach the mid to upper 70s in high terrain, and low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Dry weather is expected beneath mostly sunny skies with scattered fair weather clouds. Mild temperatures continue Monday night, with overnight lows in the 50s across the region.

On Tuesday, with nearly zonal flow aloft atop the upper ridge, a potent upper shortwave and associated surface low will track to the north of the region across Ontario and Quebec. While 850-hPa temperatures reach 14-18C overhead, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in high terrain, and mid 80s to around 90 at lower elevations are expected, while surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s may make it feel a bit muggy. With the shortwave passing to the north and a relatively hot and humid airmass in place, scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms may reach into the southern Adirondacks, as well as the Mohawk and Upper Hudson Valleys. Any storms will dissipate through the evening following the loss of diurnal heating, leaving a mild and muggy night as temperatures only fall to lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper ridging over our region Wednesday as upper energy and an associated cold front will approach our region. A pre frontal low level trough may be a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon in the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. Highs Wednesday in the 80s to around 90 with heat indices similar to the actual temperatures because the relative humidity is not expected to be extreme.

There are still some uncertainties about the timing and track of the upper energy just north of the U.S./Canada border and the associated cold front as it tracks east. The general consensus is for the leading low level thermal gradient and moisture gradient along the cold front to track through much of our region late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Then the final push of the cold front settles east and south, through the Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires Thursday afternoon.

Instability ahead of the low level cold front is expected to be considerable, with a potential elevated mixed layer and steep midlevel lapse rates. The deep shear will also be considerable.
However, there are signals that the best instability and shear do not overlap, with the best shear along and north of the U.S./Canada border, and best instability over the southern half of NY and New England.

So, some components for severe weather will be present but if they do not overlap, and if the timing is at night or morning, when instability is the least, then less chances for severe weather.
There is still time to watch this for severe potential. Still, chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday as the cold front tracks through. Highs Thursday in the lower to mid 80s with 70s higher terrain.

Drying and clearing Friday with highs in the 70s, and some 60s higher elevations. Remaining dry Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and around 70 higher elevations.

Lots of uncertainty in the timing and track of other upper energy approaching our region toward Sunday. So, indicating just general intervals of clouds and sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper 70s and around 70 higher terrain.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening with sct-bkn fair wx cu at 3-5 kft and unrestricted vsbys as high pressure continues build into the region. As skies trend clearer overnight, patchy radiation fog/mist may develop in sheltered valleys or near water bodies, most likely at GFL where IFR vsbys have been included after 08Z Mon, but also possibly at POU/PSF with confidence currently only high enough to include MVFR vsbys after 08Z Mon. Alternatively, MVFR stratus may move in from the southeast at PSF overnight, which would in turn limit the potential for any fog/mist. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist as diurnal cu at 3-5 kft increases again after 12Z Mon.

Winds continue at 5-10 kt through the afternoon, generally out of the northeast. Speeds diminish after 00Z Mon to 5 kt or less, with calm to light and variable winds expected overnight at all terminals.
Winds increase to 3-6 kt out of the south to southwest after 12Z Mon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962 Glens Falls: 90 in 1975 Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941 Glens Falls: 93 in 1921 Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911 Glens Falls: 98 in 1911 Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Albany
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Sun -- 02:51 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Sun -- 02:34 AM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:43 PM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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