Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:54PM Saturday May 27, 2017 7:49 AM EDT (11:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:51AMMoonset 9:57PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 403 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms this morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening... Then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day... Then a chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet...then subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet...then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ168 Expires:201705271430;;273930 FZUS61 KCLE 270803 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 403 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE 29.50 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE 29.90 INCHES RESIDES ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE 29.70 INCHES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY EVENING, TAKING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC WHILE THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE A RIDGE AVERAGING 29.90 INCHES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. LEZ061-166>169-271430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
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location: 42.65, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 271046
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
646 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure will move east through the ohio
valley today while high pressure remains to the north over lower
ontario. Low pressure over the central plains will then move
northeast extending a warm front over the area Saturday night
before moving over the area on Sunday. This low will depart the
area by Monday morning dragging a cold front behind it.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Only change to the forecast was to remove the mention of
thunder as the remaining showers exit the area through mid
morning.

Previous discussion...

decaying convection will continue to push east across the area
this morning before dissipating by this afternoon. Some of the
heaviest rainfall will be along and south of the us 30 corridor
where kmnn has picked up about a half inch of rain overnight.

This area also still has some embedded thunder within it so when
with the showers with isolated thunder wording for the forecast
this morning as a couple spots could still see some thunder as
this rain progresses east with the surface low. However, once
the rain passes, the forecast will be dry with high pressure
creeping in from the north and likely giving the area some
sunshine for this afternoon evening.

The challenge with today's forecast is with the temperatures.

The weak surface low remains to the south below the convection
with the southerly winds reaching no further north of the i-70
corridor. Meanwhile... A surface high lies over lower ontario
pressing northerly winds across much of the cwa. These northerly
winds should continue throughout the daytime hours and will
keep the temperatures in check. If the southerly winds and the
warm front creep north at all, some of the southern counties in
the CWA could certainly creep closer to 80. So, in short, it is
a possibility that there could be a 10 degree spread from
cleveland to mount vernon, but for now believe that the front
will wait until after peak heating hours to enter the cwa,
keeping temperatures close to average throughout.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday night
The surface low over the central plains will trek northeast and
will allow for the warm front to move north allowing for the
next round of precipitation on Sunday. The timing of the warm
front and surface low have slowed a bit so precipitation will
likely not begin in the area until after daybreak on Sunday.

Taking a good look at some of the hi-res models, it seems that
the area will get two round of precipitation with the first
being another round of decaying convection this time from
Saturday's severe weather over the middle mississippi river
valley. Once the first round clears, the second round will be
with the surface low and the subsequent cold front. It there is
sufficient time for the atmosphere to recover, there is the
potential for some more robust storms, but there are still
plenty of ifs at this point in time. Temperatures for Sunday
look seasonable with convection counteracting any warm air
entering the region.

The surface low that impacts the area for Sunday will be out of
the area for Monday so a dry forecast seems reasonable at this
time for the holiday. However, this low begins to stall and
deepen over ontario and is progged to extend a wave of energy
through the area on Tuesday, giving the region another chance
for some rain. Tuesday doesn't seem like a washout at this point
but some of this rain may linger into the long term forecast
period as well. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday also look to
be around normal in the 70s with largely neutral advection over
the area.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
The long term brings us into the first part of june. Temperatures
will still fall short of normals, but not by too much, with an
upper trough that we cannot shake across the great lakes and
northwest flow aloft across the local area. A trough moves
across the lower lakes for Wednesday with another possible
brushing far NE oh NW pa Thursday. So, low precip chances remain
for Wednesday, but the remainder of the work week appears to be
dry for now. By Friday surface high should be more centered
over the ohio valley with the low and troughiness beginning to
pull out across eastern canada.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Weakening convective complex is now sliding through the western
terminals with primarily MVFR vsby. It will be hard pressed to
get meaningful rain into eri. There is very little thunder
remaining and therefore have not mentioned at mfd. Thunder will
be beyond fdy shortly. Post rain ceilings drop to MVFR.

Entirely possible to get areas of ifr for several hours during
the early morning hours, especially for fdy mfd... Uncertain
about tol. With less rain reaching cak yng eri have pulled the
ifr from those terminals. Not much model guidance supporting the
low ceilings vsby. So majority of the aviation restrictions
occur before 16-18z Sat withVFR expected for the remainder of
the period. Light east winds overall, but backed to the
northeast for eri and cle this afternoon.

Outlook... Some non-vfr possible across eastern oh inland NW pa
late Saturday night Sunday morning. Areas non-VFR conditions
Sunday Sunday night with showers thunderstorms.

Marine
While a weak low crosses central ohio today, high pressure will
reside across the lake with fair conditions after this mornings
showers pass. This will continue to be the case into Sunday morning.

On Sunday, though, low pressure will track across il in and toward
the western basin of the lake by evening. East-northeast winds will
come around to the south and then shift to the west Sunday night.

Winds are not overly strong, but do pick up Sunday night in the wake
of the cold front. The lake will remain fairly stable limiting the
winds Monday and Tuesday, but the possibility exists for small craft
advisory conditions with the west-southwest flow across the far east
end. A trough is expected to cross the lake for Wednesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sefcovic
near term... Mullen sefcovic
short term... Sefcovic
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 56 mi90 min SSE 5.1 G 7 56°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 58 mi50 min S 5.1 G 7 55°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.3)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 61 mi50 min S 1 G 1.9 57°F 1012.1 hPa (+0.4)53°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH66 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair55°F54°F96%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW5NW6NW7W10
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W9W11W10NW9W12NW6NW4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3Calm
1 day agoSE6SE10SE7SE5SE6S4S54SW4W4NW6W6W6W6CalmW6W7SW6W7W6W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.