Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday August 17, 2017 3:25 PM EDT (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:04AMMoonset 4:06PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 944 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms becoming likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ168 Expires:201708172015;;522345 FZUS61 KCLE 171344 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 944 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.50 inches will track across the northern lakes today lifting a warm front northward across Lake Erie today and drag a cold front east across the lake tonight. A trough will cross the lake Saturday. High pressure 30.10 inches will move across the Lower Lakes Sunday into Monday. LEZ061-165>169-172015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
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location: 42.65, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 171815
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
215 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over the upper midwest will cross the northern great
lakes today and tonight, then slide across eastern canada. A weak
warm front will lift north across the area today followed by a cold
front late tonight and Friday morning. A short wave trough aloft
will cross the eastern great lakes on Saturday. High pressure will
build across the area by Sunday.

Near term through Friday
So far today the combination of a weakly capped environment and
warm air in the mid-levels has kept storms from intensifying.

Better instability continues to feed into the area from the
south ahead of a broken line of thunderstorms moving into
western ohio. Pre-frontal trough is lifting into NW ohio which
is increasing surface convergence ahead of the line although
convective debris cloud is now expanding ahead of the line.

Will continue to monitor evolution of the convection to see if
we can overcome these limitations as we head into peak heating.

Previous discussion.

Showers have been limited in coverage this morning although
moisture continues to advect into the region. Dewpoints are
increasing with values in the low 70s already across much of
western ohio. Visible satellite shows breaks in the clouds
across southern ohio with an expanding CU field. Also to note is
a band of showers and thunderstorms approaching from indiana.

The atmosphere is starting off weakly capped, but instability
will increase ahead of this line with storms intensifying as
they move into western portions of our forecast area this
afternoon. The storm prediction center has expanded both the
slight risk of severe thunderstorms and the 5 percent tornado
outlook to include most areas west of interstate 71. Ml cape
progged to increase to around 1500 j kg with cloud cover
limiting values from getting much higher. Backed low level flow
relative to the stronger 40-50 knots of southwesterly flow aloft
does create a concern for rotating storms this afternoon. Lcls
will also be low given the moist environment so a tornado or two
is possible. Thunderstorms will be heavy rain producers but
hopefully storm motion to the northeast of 30-40 mph will
prevent flooding from being too much of a concern. Main time
frame for strong storms today will be 1-8pm.

Original "near term" discussion...

a relatively strong surface low pressure and short wave energy
will track across the great lakes with a broad area of
warm moisture advection ahead of the system. Coverage of showers
and storms will increase across the midwest and spread into
northwest ohio early this morning. The eastward movement will
fight the dry atmosphere and downslope flow for a while this
morning and it may take until afternoon to get the activity to
extreme NE oh and northwest pa.

Once the atmosphere has moistened up, additional thunderstorms will
develop as the trough approaches. Wind fields aloft will be
strong for this time of year. These storms should have both
shear and CAPE available but mid level lapse rates are progged
to be weak. Drying aloft is progged to increase from the west
this afternoon which will steepen lapse rates but may
ultimately cap the development. I suspect there will be a sweet
spot where severe storms develop and it could be in northwest or
north central oh during the mid late afternoon. Will include
the threat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Forecast high temperatures today will be on the high end of
guidance since the showers and thunderstorms will likely not be
persistent and the air mass is warm.

Unsure how far east the stronger storms will push this evening as
the sweet spot gets pinched off. Will keep higher pops across
northeast oh and northwest pa the first part of tonight. The
showers and storms could reach a point tonight across extreme ne
oh and NW pa where there is redevelopment with the potential
for heavy rain for a while. Pw is progged to remain above 2
inches across extreme NE oh and NW pa through the evening.

The weak cold front may take until late tonight or Friday morning to
push across the forecast area. Model soundings suggest that the
drying aloft and subsidence will increase Friday as the leading
shortwave lifts out. Will keep a small pop across extreme northeast
oh and northwest pa through midday Friday since there may be just
enough upward motion and convergence to pop a shower a two until the
front is through. Cooler tomorrow as cold advection will be steady
through the day behind the front. High temps not too far from
normal.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Shortwave energy enhancing the upper trough across the ohio valley
for Saturday will likely be enough to produce a few scattered
showers thunderstorms across the area. Hopefully that this threat
will push east of the area by evening with the bulk of the trough
through, but there is the possibility that a few showers linger into
the evening across the far east. High pressure overspreads the area
for Sunday.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
The high shifts east for Monday. We will have a touch of good
summer heat Monday with highs in the mid and upper 80s with
subtle ridging overhead and h8 temperatures getting close to
+20c. For now leaned toward the warmer ECMWF guidance, but it is
possible a few locations could touch 90.

We return back to a longwave western u.S. Ridge eastern u.S.

Trough by midweek. The warm and muggy airmass for Monday night
and into Tuesday will be replaced with highs in the 70s and a
more comfortable night for Wednesday night with lows back into
the 50s. Showers and thunderstorms look to be a good bet
sometime on Tuesday, but have limited precip chances to 50 50
until the timing is more firmly set. Right now the major
shortwave player across the northern plains phases quickly with
more minor impulses across the southern plains which may not
hold. Behind this frontal system, high pressure builds southward
from south- central canada upper midwest for mid week.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving into NW ohio
will continue to spread northeastward ahead of a low pressure
system moving towards the upper great lakes. Tried to time a 2-3
hour window of thunderstorms into most terminals this
afternoon. Conditions ahead of this line are mostlyVFR.

Thunderstorms will produce very heavy rainfall and brief ifr
conditions if they pass over a terminal. Isolated wind gusts in
excess of 45 knots are also possible if thunderstorms become
severe. Otherwise southwest winds will be breezy with gusts up
to 25 knots outside of thunderstorms through 23z
a cold front will move east across the area this evening with
much drier air arriving behind it. Clouds expected to scatter
out although some MVFR stratus will attempt to develop across ne
ohio overnight. A broken CU field of 2500-3500 feet will expand
across all areas on Friday. Southwest to westerly winds will be
breezy on Friday with gusts 25 knots.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr possible in showers Saturday.

Marine
A warm front will be pushing northeast across the lake today into
this evening bringing the east-southeast winds around to the south-
southwest. The cold front will follow late tonight with winds
shifting to the west. The winds in the warm sector today this
evening will be brisk, but with the offshore flow will likely not
need a small craft advisory just yet. For Friday, though, a small
craft advisory looks to be a good bet with the west flow east of the
islands. Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon primarily across
the western basin may be strong to severe.

Winds diminish with time Saturday backing and then veering as a weak
upper disturbance moves a trough across the lake. Winds settle
further as high pressure passes over the lake Sunday, shifting east
of the lake for Monday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Kec kosarik
short term... Oudeman
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Kec
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 13 mi85 min ESE 14 G 16 72°F 73°F2 ft1010.4 hPa (-2.6)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 56 mi65 min S 5.1 G 13 83°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 58 mi25 min S 11 G 16 83°F 1010.5 hPa (-2.4)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 61 mi37 min S 14 G 17 86°F 1010.3 hPa69°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH66 mi32 minS 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F72°F67%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE54NE5E4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E4E5SE5SE6SE6SE4SE6S7S6S8S10S11
G15
S8S13
1 day agoNW8NW6NW5N7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm3N5--NE4N5
2 days agoNW6NE44NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE3S4S4W6--------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.