Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:49PM Thursday May 23, 2019 6:58 PM EDT (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Expires:201905240245;;342463 Fzus61 Kcle 231932 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 332 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A cold front will drop across lake erie during the early evening hours. High pressure 30.20 inches will build across the lake tonight into Friday. A warm front will lift northeast across the lake late Friday night through Saturday morning. A cold front will drop southeast across the lake Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure 30.00 inches will move east across the central great lakes Sunday. A warm front will approach from the south on Monday night. Lez061-168-169-240245- lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny- lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 332 pm edt Thu may 23 2019
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ168


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
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location: 42.65, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 232233
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
633 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will drop south across the area this evening. High
pressure from the northern plains will build east across the
region on Friday. A warm front will lift north on Saturday then
sink south again on Sunday keeping the weather across the region
warm but unsettled through the weekend.

Near term through Friday night
A couple thunderstorms developed along a line from central
trumbull county east. This line appears to have developed along
a boundary moving south. Another boundary is headed south as
well and may help to enhance the existing convection. Further
west, the line could begin to fill in as it moves south and
east. Otherwise, cold front continues to move east across the
area at this time. Northern locations are feeling the
stabilizing effects of the lake as skies are clear to scattered.

Temperatures will start to cool overnight with the passage of
the cold front.

Previous discussion...

mixed layer capes running 500-1000j kg across the area with the
most unstable air just to our southwest. High resolution
forecasts show this instability growing northeast into the
southern and southeastern counties and then shifting southeast
as the front moves through. Also watching the area of cu
development which so far has been capped but shows the most
unstable air. The hrrr continues its trend of not really
developing convection in the area through the evening. Don't
completely trust it however so for the late afternoon and early
evening will continue with chance pops there. Dry elsewhere.

Overnight and Friday high pressure builds in. Friday night
models show the front returning as a warm front, driven north by
low pressure moving into the western lakes. Models show
increasing mid level rh across the area in the isentropic lift
of moist southwest flow. Will have chance pops showers
developing drifting into the area from the north, mainly after
midnight. Highs Friday from the upper 60s north to mid 70s
south.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
We will have a very spring like day on Saturday and most of the
weekend with a deep southwesterly flow both at the surface and alot
up to 500 mb. A mid level shortwave will move across the upper great
lakes region and an embedded impulse will be move through the west-
southwest flow at 500 mb Saturday afternoon. Moderate instablilty
along with plenty of low level moisture and deep shear through the
mid levels will support at least the potential for some severe
weather. Given the uniform shear wind profile, linear form of storm
development with strong damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
the main hazards expected. The storm prediction center has the
entire area in a day 3 slight risk outlook which looks reasonable at
this time. It appears the greatest threat time for active weather
will be late Saturday afternoon through mid evening. Storms will
lose their punch later Saturday evening and Saturday night.

A frontal boundary will sag southward into ohio late on Sunday.

South of the boundary will destabilized with a warm and humid
airmass. Additional strong to maybe some severe storms could be
possible again south of the boundary Sunday afternoon given the
westerly shear and instability. The front clears through the area
Sunday night with slightly cooler and drier air late Sunday night
into Monday.

Long term Monday through Thursday
The frontal boundary drifts back northward as a warm front Monday
night with a risk for scattered showers and isolated storms if we
get a little low level trying to nose in across western ohio. Mid
level heights rise on Tuesday with warm southwest winds. Warmer and
humid air moves back in with highs in the middle 80s and the threat
for some scattered convection in the late afternoon and evening. A
stout looking mid level shortwave will move through the midwest and
great lakes region sometime Wednesday or mid week. Timing on this
feature will make a difference if we have a severe weather threat or
not for Wednesday or Wednesday evening. At this time, we will
mention at least the threat for more stormy weather mid week and
warm and breezy weather. An upper level trough will try to start
building across the great lake region by the end of the week with
slightly cooler weather.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
West southwest winds will turn more westerly behind a cold front
today. Speeds should be around 15-25 knots with gusts into the
30s. Winds will diminish quickly this evening. Otherwise
conditions areVFR early this afternoon with mostly clear skies
across the region. Main concern other than the winds will be
redevelopment of convection this afternoon ahead of and along
the cold front. The instability will be there and it's just a
question of if the front or a lingering boundary will begin the
process within the CWA or to our south. For now will have vcts
across the southern tier of terminals through the mid late
afternoon and monitor. Overnight expectVFR conditions.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
Westerly winds increased this afternoon over the lake and small
craft advisories were issued for 20 to 25 knots winds and gusts up
to 35 knots. Winds will shift to more northwesterly late this
evening and over night with a decrease to 10 to 15 knots. Weak high
pressure will move over the lake Friday morning with light and
variable winds. Southeasterly winds will return Friday night into
Saturday morning with a warm front moving across the lake. Winds
will shift and increase Saturday afternoon up to 20 or 25 knots.

Small craft advisories may be needed again on Saturday. A cold front
will drift southward across the lake on Sunday and shift the wind to
northwesterly. High pressure will give a break in the weather for
the lake on Monday with lighter winds and waves. Strong low pressure
will move across the upper great lakes region on Tuesday and
Wednesday with gusty winds for lake erie. South-southwesterly winds
may approach 20 to 25 knots again and small craft advisory
conditions may be needed again Tuesday into Wednesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez142>149.

Synopsis... Tk
near term... Tk lombardy
short term... Griffin
long term... Griffin
aviation... Tk
marine... Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 13 mi59 min WSW 16 G 18 56°F 48°F3 ft1011.8 hPa (+0.2)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 61 mi41 min W 20 G 22 67°F 61°F1013.7 hPa59°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH66 mi66 minWNW 17 G 2710.00 miFair78°F59°F52%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS85CalmSE6SE7SE7SE5SE6S6S6S5S6S6S8S7SW7S6SW16
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1 day ago3NE3CalmCalmCalmE4E5CalmE5E5SE7SE10SE11SE13SE10SE14
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2 days agoW8NW7NW7NW6N64N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NW4CalmNW63NW4NE54N6NE73

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.