Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday August 17, 2017 3:22 PM EDT (19:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 4:16PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0044.000000t0000z-170811t2045z/ 442 Pm Edt Fri Aug 11 2017
.the special marine warning will expire at 445 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4205 8323 4206 8323 4219 8319 4222 8313 4217 8313 4212 8312 4205 8315 4201 8314 4201 8315 time...mot...loc 2042z 269deg 38kt 4210 8301
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201708112052;;233222 FZUS73 KDTX 112042 RRA MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 442 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017 LCZ423-112052-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171900
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
300 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Discussion
A very moist but debris laden warm sector now overtaking southeast
michigan, the arrival accompanying a secondary low level theta-e
surge and the associated arcing line of showers thunderstorms. The
early afternoon timing of the precipitation effectively shrinking
the window for recovery. There is a narrow corridor of clearing now
migrating into the backside of this cloud debris field, allowing for
some degree of destabilization aided low 70s dewpoints. Spc
mesoanalysis indicates roughly 500-700 j kg of MLCAPE within this
zone as temperatures bounce back toward the 80 degree range. It will
be within this axis where some renewed development remains plausible
this evening as a pre-frontal trough sweeps through. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests a low coverage, as convective growth continues to
fight modest instability, with paltry low level lapse rates. The
background deep layer wind field will remain supportive of
convective organization should instability allow for more robust
updrafts, but certainly a very conditional severe weather risk at
this stage.

Mid level circulation will lift from lake superior this evening to
south-central ontario by midday Friday. Trailing shortwave pivoting
around the southern periphery of this system will track across
central lower mi overnight into Friday morning. An increasingly
component of dry air advection ongoing through this time becomes a
strong limiting factor in sustaining rainfall chances. Isolated
potential for a few showers sprinkles given the accompanying
increase in cva with this wave, but certainly nothing organized
given the downturn in deep layer moisture quality and unfavorable
timing at the diurnal minimum.

Period of 850-925 mb cold air advection emerges by Friday morning,
likely accompanied by some expansion in lower stratus. Weakly
cyclonic mid level flow augmented by the diurnal process likely
sustains a high degree of cloudiness through the daylight period,
particularly with northward extent. Moisture depth and forcing is
lacking, suggesting shower production will be limited. Firm gradient
extending out from the system over ontario will make for breezy
westerly conditions. Highs arriving largely within the 75 to 80
degree range.

Next shortwave sliding through the broaden background troughing
timed to arrive late Friday night into early Saturday. Brief uptick
in mid level dynamics with this system may prove sufficient for a
quick shot of rainfall embedded thunder, before increasing mid level
stability subsidence takes a progressive hold from northwest to
southeast through the latter half of Saturday. With good prospects
for some late day recovery, highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees will
be attainable.

Surface high pressure centered across the ohio valley on Sunday and
the majority of Monday will keep conditions dry as south
southwesterly winds help raise daytime high temperatures well into
the 80s for both days. Rain and thunderstorm chances will gradually
ramp up late Monday into Tuesday as upper-level troughing with
embedded short-waves starts to build across the great lakes aloft. At
the surface, persistent southerly winds will allow a sufficient
amount heat and moisture to build in across the state, producing
sufficient conditions for shower and thunderstorm chances. A cold
front is also expected to move through late Tuesday, which will
provide additional lift for shower and thunderstorm development.

Behind the cold front, dry air will filter back in from the
northwest, bringing quiet conditions for the late half of next week.

The cold front will act to keep temperatures capped in the 70s for a
daytime high Thursday, and if the gem and ECMWF models pan out, highs
in the 70s will persist into the weekend.

Marine
South-southeast winds generally in the 15 to 20 knot range this
afternoon will shift to the southwest tomorrow behind the cold front
which is tracking through this evening. Post frontal cold air
advection will boost the over-lake instability profile, and allow
for peak wind gusts more in the 20 to 30 knot range. Wind and waves
will then decrease over the weekend as high pressure builds into the
great lakes region.

Hydrology
Tropical airmass sliding east of southeast michigan this afternoon,
and drying has commenced. None-the-less, scattered heavy rain
producing thunderstorms remain possible through early this evening
with leftover daytime instability. With the thunderstorm coverage
expected to be limited and progressive nature of activity, not
expecting flooding as additional basin averages look to be quarter
of an inch or less. However, localized quick half an inch to one
inch total remains possible with the strongest storms.

Prev discussion
Issued at 100 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
aviation...

main moisture axis producing widespread showers is pushing through
southeast michigan early this afternoon. Coverage of thunderstorms
is limited with modest instability, and confidence in thunderstorms
directly impacting TAF sites this afternoon and early this evening
is low, and will thus handle with vcts. Mid level dry slot around
this evening providingVFR and partly cloudy skies, with cool
cyclonic flow then spreading MVFR stratus deck from northwest to
southeast across the area, reaching southern TAF sites early
tomorrow morning. Breezy southwest winds tomorrow, gusting between
20 to 25 knots, with standard diurnal rise in cloud bases intoVFR
during afternoon.

For dtw... Strong thunderstorm along southern michigan border should
remain south of the terminal early this afternoon, and confidence in
additional thunderstorm activity is low late this afternoon.

Any thunderstorm threat ending early this evening, with partly
cloudy skies late this evening into tonight before high MVFR ceilings
arrive early tomorrow morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms through early this evening.

* high in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon, then again
tomorrow, otherwise low.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for miz049.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lhz421-422.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for lhz441-442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Mr am
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
aviation... ..Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi82 min SSW 4.1 G 6 77°F 1010.2 hPa (-1.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi52 min WSW 6 G 17 73°F 1009.7 hPa71°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi28 minSSE 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast77°F72°F84%1008.1 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi89 minSSW 75.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist76°F73°F94%1009.1 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi29 minS 1210.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1007 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE8SE6SE7SE6SE9SE7SE7SE7SE9SE9SE10SE9S9S5SE6SE6SE7SE6S10S7S6SE8S13
G19
1 day agoNE5NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3SE10SE8SE8S7SE8SE7
2 days agoS8S5SW8SW4S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmSE3SW3N3NW4N3CalmN5NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.