Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

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Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:16PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 6:56AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201906131000;;415733 Fzus73 Kdtx 130858 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 458 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2019 Lcz422-423-460-131000- 458 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... At 458 am edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 20 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near st. Clair shores, moving northeast at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... NEw baltimore, grosse pointe, st. Clair shores, st. Clair, mt clemens harbor of refuge, algonac, st clair flats old channel light, metro beach metropark marina and belle isle. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 20 knots, locally higher waves, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8305 4235 8306 4238 8295 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4269 8260 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4297 8246
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191541
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1141 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Focus for this afternoon is centered on shower and thunderstorm
activity that will develop over portions of lower michigan. Questions
remain on most favored area for activity, but based on 12z dtx raob
and lack of sky cover, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
morning early afternoon over all of southeast michigan due to
diabatic daytime heating. The key dynamical support for thunderstorm
development appears to be a well defined 925-850mb frontogenesis axis
that will that develop remain fairly stationary along a line from
battle creek to owosso to lapeer. Some attempt will be made by this
fgen axis to sag southeastward into livingston oakland washtenaw
counties between 21-00z, before the influence of ohio valley low
pressure system pushes the low level fgen back north. Uncertainty
exists with how much activity can fire over the southern metro
detroit today as rap based soundings show a good subsidence based
capping layer persisting at 9000 ft agl. This capping layer does
match up to where it would be expected based on anticyclonic flow
trajectories of the ridging. Poor low to midlevel lapse rates will
significantly compromise instability, mlcapes today of around 500
j kg. No severe weather is expected this afternoon and tonight,
although water loading from a cell collapse may contribute to an
isolated wind gust of up to 40 mph. Main item to watch for will be
potential heavy rainfall with cell movement that is nearly stationary
or west to east at less than 20 mph. Most likely corridor for
showers and thunderstorms during this early period will be along near
the I 69 to m 49 corridors.

Prev discussion
Issued at 915 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
aviation...

a weak front settles slowly across central and southeast lower
michigan today. It becomes the focus for increasing coverage of
showers and scattered thunderstorms especially during the afternoon
as peak heating generates some instability. The greatest probability
for storms is expected to be in the fnt to ptk region which is about
where the surface wind shift will be during late afternoon into
early evening. Outside of any heavier showers and storms, conditions
remainVFR until later tonight when the front stalls near the ohio
border and low pressure rides west to east through indiana and ohio.

Showers increase coverage again during this time and the surface low
brings ifr to lifr ceiling and at least ifr visibility in rain and
fog lasting well into Thursday morning.

For dtw... Shallow MVFR fog dissipates quickly and leaves a few
pockets of disorganized clouds around 5 kft during the morning.

Ceiling is mostly above 5 kft during the afternoon as the front is
slow to move south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms also remain
across the northern fringes of d21 through late afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5 kft or less today, medium this evening, high
after midnight through Thursday morning.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion...

issued at 316 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
discussion...

upper level energy shortwave trough tracking through lake superior
today, with light southwest flow over lower michigan ahead of a cold
front transporting decent amount of moisture 850 mb theta-e axis
during the prime heating of the day into southeast michigan. However,
with 500 mb temps of -10 to -11 c, mlcapes only look to be
increasing to between 250-500 j kg (regional gem gfs) with mid level
lapse rates (700-500 mb) under 6 c km. NAM appears to be too
aggressive with instability, as raw surface dew pts rising to around
70 degrees does not look realistic. Even so, a high scattered-low
numerous coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms looks likely
with the weak low level convergence with the front possible weak
surface reflection tracking through. Slow movement will present a
heavy rain threat with pw values up to 1.5 inches. This moisture axis
looks to hold right into Thursday morning, and looks like a strong
jet MAX pv disturbance will track out of the southern plains and
reach the southern michigan border late tonight. So, despite the loss
of surface based instability overnight, with 850-700 mb
low circulation reaching along and just across the southern michigan
border, showers should spread into most of southeast michigan
overnight into tomorrow morning. With the rather slow movement and
strong mid level fgen forcing progged, heavy rain will be a concern
as there is a chance the enhanced forcing sets up across detroit
metro area (per nam), leading to some urban and small stream type
flooding. However, the local SREF weighted probabilistic guidance
suggests the chance for accumulated rainfall of 1 inch or greater is
only near 40 percent, and will pass on a flood watch.

Upper level ridge moving over the western great lakes on Friday will
keep southeast michigan dry with the northwest confluent flow and
surface ridge in place. 850 mb temps around 10 c supporting highs in
the 70s.

The forecast for the weekend remains complicated, and now there are
indications we may be trending dry. Active warm front of the
midwest will gradually lift north, leading to increasing chance of
shower possible thunderstorm activity Friday night into Saturday
morning. However, there is a growing consensus (00z euro icon) the
mcs which develops will track mostly south of the cwa, and upper
level ridging then builds over the central great lakes Saturday
afternoon. Height falls coming out of the rockies and spreading into
the central plains Saturday evening should allow for another
thunderstorm complex to develop over the midwest Saturday night, but
this complex could also track just south of the state. Throw in the
00z canadian solution, which is offering up an even more compelling
case for a dry weekend, as the massive upper level low over eastern
canada exerts a greater influence. Confidence is not high, and
lowered the likely pops generated by nbm Saturday afternoon evening
into chance category. Keeping with the drier lean in the forecast,
there is a pretty good chance maxes end up warmer than the outgoing
forecast for Saturday Sunday.

Marine...

a weak front across central lake huron and lower michigan settles
slowly southward during the day with little marine consequence other
than scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near
lake st clair and western lake erie from mid afternoon into early
evening. The pressure field remains weak resulting in light
southwest wind shifting north outside of any storms as the front
moves south of lake erie by evening. A low pressure system moves
along the front across indiana and ohio and brings greater coverage
of showers tonight through Thursday along with a moderate NE wind.

Higher stability across the colder open waters of lake huron is
expected to limit wind gusts to around 20 knots and hold waves just
below advisory threshold. Saginaw bay is the possible exception
where the water temperature is considerably warmer. The low pressure
system exits eastward Thursday night and allows weak high pressure
to build across the region from northern ontario. This brings a
break in rainfall and lighter wind over marine areas while the next
low pressure system organizes over the plains and moves eastward
during the weekend.

Hydrology...

a weak front moving slowly through the area brings scattered showers
to the area today. Showers become more numerous this afternoon south
of i-69 as daytime heating produces instability. Limited duration of
any heavier showers or thunderstorms holds average rainfall totals
to a quarter inch or less from noon to midnight tonight.

After a short break during the evening, a low pressure system moves
from west to east across indiana and ohio along the front stalled
south of the border. This system has potential for locally heavy
rainfall up to about the i-96 696 corridor and most likely from
about 3 am tonight to 3 pm Thursday. Rainfall totals average three
quarter inch in this area with pockets of 1 to 2 inches possible
depending on location of repeated downpours or thunderstorms. This
may lead to short-duration flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas and subsequent rises in area rivers and streams given the
rainy conditions of recent days.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt Thursday for miz048.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi74 min ESE 7 G 8 67°F 1009.5 hPa (-0.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi62 min NE 4.1 G 6 72°F 1009.2 hPa62°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi16 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F59°F54%1008.5 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi21 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F60°F56%1007.7 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi21 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F62°F56%1007.9 hPa

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Last 24hrW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS4SW5SW5SW4SW4
1 day agoN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW4
2 days agoCalmCalmNE6E5E5E6E4NE5NE4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4CalmCalmE6NE4E4NE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.