Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fennville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:46PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:56 PM EST (19:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:09AMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots backing southeast toward daybreak. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots backing west, then veering north late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves calm.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots backing west 10 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves calm.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves calm. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ845 Expires:201801161015;;514453 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fennville, MI
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location: 42.65, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 221850
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
150 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 304 am est Mon jan 22 2018
a storm system will track through the region today and into
tonight... Bringing rain and even a few thunderstorms to the area.

As the storm pulls away on Tuesday... Any remaining rain will
change to snow... Especially in the afternoon. An area of high
pressure will move in for the middle part of the week leading to
mostly dry weather.

Update
Issued at 1153 am est Mon jan 22 2018
a few spots have already reached over an inch of rain. Grr has had
0.81 since midnight. The good news is that the heaviest rains are
exiting as the dry slot moves in. Most areas will only see an
additional quarter inch of rain through this afternoon and
evening. River forecasts are being sent as I type this.

I bumped up MAX temps a bit based on current trends (51 at lwa at
1135 am). Maxes around 50 should reach to areas south of i-96, and
40s elsewhere.

Cannot totally rule out the chance of additional thunder, but i
have removed it for the rest of the day. A narrow band of
thunderstorms could develop over NW il where some heating occurs
within the dry slot. But this will be surface based, and struggle
to cross lake michigan into early this evening.

Update issued at 539 am est Mon jan 22 2018
the dense fog had diminished considerably as the heavier showers
moved in. The forecast has been updated to remove the dense fog
advisory.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 304 am est Mon jan 22 2018
models are in reasonable agreement in showing a deepening area of
low pressure tracking northeastward through the great lakes region
today and into tonight. This system will be rather dynamic with a
favorable coupled upper level jet. The combination of strong lift
and a very moist airmass with pwat values well over 200 percent
above normal will support widespread rain... Especially this
morning. There could even be a few thunderstorms as elevated
instability will advect in from the southwest this morning and is
then forecasted to persist for the afternoon. Will maintain the
high pops and show a northeastward progression of the thunderstorm
risk today. Will keep the dense fog advisory going til 7 am... And
may need to extend it depending on how the showers moving in
impacts the thicker fog.

A mid level dry slot moves in from the southwest this afternoon
and evening. Will lower the pops into the evening as a result.

There is still some uncertainty as to how quickly we transition
over to snow and how much precipitation will be around. The latest
trend supports a slower transition. Will trend the forecast this
way. There is still a risk for snow related impacts on
Tuesday... With the high res euro trying to lower surface
temperatures below freezing in the afternoon.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 304 am est Mon jan 22 2018
there may be a few snow showers along the lake shore at the start of
the long term, but they won't last long. H8 temps are marginal at
best and will begin to warm Wednesday night. A upper ridge will
quickly build into the great lakes and we'll see a couple of dry
days.

A cold front will move across the state Friday night. Dynamics with
this front are fairly weak as the supporting sfc low is well north
in ontario and the trailing upper trough if mostly diffuse. Moisture
pooling along the front may lead to some rain showers Friday night
and Saturday and a few rain showers associated with the upper trough
Saturday night into Sunday will mix with and then turn to light snow
showers as colder air flows in behind the departing cold front. This
system doesn't look like a big pcpn producer.

Friday and Saturday will be the warmest days when temperatures climb
into the 40s. Otherwise, highs will be in the mid 30s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 150 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
changeable aviation conditions are expected the next 24 hours, as
an area of low pressure moves through the state. MVFR conditions
have replaced the ifr and lifr conditions that were in place
earlier in the day. Kmkg still holds on to the low aviation
conditions as of 18z. Improvement at all sites is expected late
this afternoon however ahead of a cold frontal passage. Lower
aviation conditions will return tonight and into Tuesday morning
however behind the cold front. The rain will mix with some snow
towards daybreak on Tuesday and change over to snow for Tuesday
morning. Ifr conditions are likely Tuesday morning in all areas.

Hydrology
Issued at 214 pm est Sun jan 21 2018
a complete melting of the natural snowpack is expected by Monday
in the grand, kalamazoo, and muskegon river basins. This will
release a quarter to perhaps half inch of water. Rain totals on
Monday will mostly range between 0.6 and 1.2 inches (ecmwf and
ensemble have been consistently lower than GFS and ensemble).

Depth of frozen soil varies but overall expect the ground to
remain frozen enough to allow efficient runoff.

A number of river forecast points will likely rise above bankfull
in the upcoming week. There is a chance of minor flood stage being
reached at a few sites (of earliest concern are holt and eagle),
particularly if higher rainfall totals verify. A breakup of river
ice is expected, and any ice jams that form can cause
unpredictable fluctuations in water levels. Road closures are
possible in low spots near river banks. Water could also approach
buildings in flood prone areas.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Jk
synopsis... Mjs
short term... Mjs
long term... 04
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Cas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 11 mi45 min E 8 G 9.9 999.7 hPa
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 20 mi27 min S 11 G 12 52°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 42 mi17 min ESE 12 G 14 42°F 1000.7 hPa42°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 44 mi57 min S 6 G 12 53°F 1000.7 hPa (-4.4)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI7 mi64 minESE 65.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F97%1001.1 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI22 mi62 minS 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast53°F48°F85%1000.3 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3E5E5E6E6SE6E5E4E4E6E5E7E6E8E9E10E9E9E13E14E10SE6E6
1 day agoSW10SW8SW7SW4SW3S5S5S6S5S5S4S6S3S3SW3SE5S3CalmSE4SE4SE4S3E3E5
2 days agoSW13S10S8S9
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SW12SW13SW9SW10SW10SW12SW10SW12SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.