Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fennville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 8:08PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 11:23 PM EDT (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:07AMMoonset 7:57PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 907 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots veering east after midnight. Partly cloudy. Areas of fog through 2 am. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201703290915;;236501 FZUS53 KGRR 290107 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 907 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ845-290915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fennville, MI
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location: 42.65, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 290057
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
857 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
latest update...

update/marine

Synopsis
Issued at 329 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
fair weather is expected through the day Wednesday. Low pressure
will approach lower michigan on Thursday. A brief period of
wintry precipitation could start the day for locations along and
north of i-96. Precipitation will transition to a soaking rain
during the day Thursday. Conditions are expected to trend drier
through next weekend with the possibility for more active weather
at the beginning of next week.

Update
Issued at 857 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
lowered the min temps a bit for tonight. The air mass that is
moving in is quite dry with dew points in the mid and upper 20s
over northern wi. Expect skies to remain mostly clear, with ci
only arriving just before daybreak. Winds will also be very light.

This will allow temps to reach the lower 30s in most places, and
a few mins around 30 over the north.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 329 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
the main event in the short term will be the system that moves in
late Wednesday and Thursday. This brings the potential for another
round of soaking rainfall with the onset possibly starting as a bit
of wintry precipitation.

Our next potentially big rain event can be seen churning over the
southwest, resulting in thunderstorms over the panhandle of texas
and oklahoma. The closed upper low will swing our direction as it
transitions into a pretty decent shortwave feature.

The initial question with this system is how soon precipitation
begins. Mid and upper level moisture and lift increases along a
boundary that extends well out ahead of the system late Wednesday
night. Guidance continues to point out a dry layer (below 8k feet)
persisting into early Thursday morning across portions of
southern lower michigan. At this point, it seems this layer is
more pronounced along and south of i-96. This is where the onset
of precipitation may be delayed for a couple of hours, if trends
continue in this direction. Where the boundary lines up, this
layer may be overcome a little quicker. Precipitation may hold off
until after midnight for most locations.

Temperature profiles would suggest the first few hours starting as
snow across central lower michigan with a transition line
progressing from southwest to northwest Thursday morning. Areas
along and south of i-94 are likely to be all rain with the best
chances for wintry precipitation along/north of i-96. As milder
air takes over, all precipitation turns to rain, which could be a
soaker. Models diverge on where the heaviest rain fall, but
rainfall totals may push/exceed one inch in some locations.

Between now and Thursday, we will see fair weather. Dry air will
continue to gradually work out the cloud cover overhead from north
to south. Wednesday will begin with some sunshine, before clouds
increase during the afternoon.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 329 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
precipitation chances were increased Monday night, but overall
forecast certainty for the whole period is poor. This will make
subsequent forecasts very susceptible to change.

The weekend is looking drier than what yesterday's forecast
indicated. As suspected, there will be too little moisture to
capitalize on a minor upper PV maximum forecast to drop southeast
across the area around this time. Models have been surprisingly
consistent with this PV feature, but I am reminding myself that this
is a day 4 to 5 forecast through a prolonged pattern of weak and
unphased upper flow over the CONUS - far from ideal regarding
predictability.

Keeping this backdrop of uncertainty in mind, we are looking at
precipitation potential early next week. Our forecast will feature
>50% pops Monday night primarily across the southeastern forecast
area. This is a pretty aggressive this far out for reasons already
mentioned. It is based primarily on the wet deterministic GFS and
ecmwf solutions. The 00z GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
unsurprisingly show a very wide range of solutions regarding the
track of the surface low and associated precipitation. So,
we will continue to expect more fluctuations in subsequent forecasts.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 712 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
the clearing line was moving south across the i-94 TAF sites early
this evening. This will produceVFR conditions at all sites by
00-01z. TheVFR will be maintained for the rest of this taf
period. Ene winds will increase to around 10 knots by early to mid
afternoon on wed.

Marine
Issued at 857 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
added areas of fog to the forecast through this evening. With
lowering dew points and winds becoming more offshore later
tonight this fog will move away from the shoreline and also
gradually diminish.

Wave are expected to remain less than 3 feet for the remainder of
the week. No headlines are warranted in the period.

Hydrology
Issued at 320 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017
most rivers have demonstrated within bank rises after rainfall over
the last 4 days. However, more elevated river levels at ionia,
hastings, eagle, and holt may be susceptible to additional rainfall
expected Thursday and Friday, possibly another 0.50"-1.00". This may
act to provide secondary river crests heading into the end of the
week and weekend, potentially higher than the current crests.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Jk
synopsis... Jam
short term... Jam
long term... Tjt
aviation... Jk
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 11 mi53 min NNW 7 G 9.9
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 20 mi43 min N 8 G 8.9 34°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 42 mi33 min N 7 G 8.9 35°F 1024.4 hPa35°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 44 mi83 min NNE 6 G 8 35°F 1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI7 mi30 minW 31.75 miFog/Mist33°F30°F89%1024.1 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI22 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair32°F31°F99%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3N5N4N4N5N4N6N5N7N7N6NE53E5E9NE6W5W5NW7W4W3W3W3
1 day agoW7SW6W5W4W6W8W6NW3W3W6W4NW4W5N4W4W6W5W5NW7NW6NW5N5N3Calm
2 days agoE17
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E12E10E14E14E11E15E10E9E10E11E9E9E6SE6SE5SE4SE4SE3CalmS3SE3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.