Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 4:33 AM   Moonset 6:26 PM

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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wednesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots backing north late in the day. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the day. Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - West winds 15 to 20 knots veering northwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 070257 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1057 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday

- Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week

UPDATE
Issued at 1056 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A fairly quiet remainder of the night is expected with high pressure in control of our area weather. Changes are expected on Tuesday as the high slides away to the east, which will allow a warm front to move in from the south. For the rest of the night however we are looking at a gradual increase in clouds from the south and west. It will remain dry through the night. Lows will range from the upper 30s in the far northeast near Harrison tonight to the low 50s in the southwest near South Haven.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

- Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday

Severe storms are just developing over the Plains in response to strong dynamics being produced by low pressure over the northern Plains along a warm/occluded frontal band
These storms
in weakening mode...will move east tonight and move toward Lower MI Tuesday morning. These storms will be weakening as they move across the cwa Tuesday morning due to drier air and limited instability.

Once the initial showers/storms move across by late morning, we'll likely see a lull of a couple of hours and with more storm redevelopment during the mid afternoon. CAPE values increase dramatically behind the frontal boundary and will be helped out by any clearing that we see. An approaching strong short wave that's ejected out of the Plains upper low will support convective redevelopment. Dewpoints surge into the lower 60s behind the front. Strong shear in the 55 kt range coupled with 1k+ j/kg SBCAPE, 6.5-7 C/km mid level lapse rates 40kt LLJ and a 75kt mid level jet will support organization. In this case, the strongest dynamics will remain south of the cwa, but will be strong enough to produce a wind and hail threat from roughly 3pm-8pm. SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk for severe storms generally south of I-96 with a Marginal Risk for most of the rest of the cwa. Any lingering showers/storms should be out of the cwa by 06z Wednesday.

- Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week

A positive tilted mid level wave will be tracking through the Great Lakes region later Wednesday and into Thursday. PWATs climb as this feature tracks through topping an inch in southern parts of the CWA
This is a good setup for period of steady rain, which will also act to keep the temperatures down. The models do vary considerably with the location and amounts of rain. The GFS has been steady in showing a swath of heavier rain for Muskegon River basin, while the ECMWF and GEM are aiming the precipitation further south and trending further south.

Another mid level wave comes down from the Canadian Prairies on Friday night. This wave will bring down another surge of cool air and there could even be some lake effect rain showers with this second wave. While qpf is projected to be light, given the enhancement of the moisture from Lake MI, we will nudge up the POPs for Friday night into Saturday to account for this. With 850 mb temps struggling to top 0 deg C, the daytime temperatures are likely to stay at least several degrees below normal for both Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 752 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions with generally east or southeast winds will continue across the area this evening and overnight. Lower clouds start to move into the area in the morning ahead of a line of showers and possible rumbles of thunder that come off Lake Michigan sometime in the late morning/midday timeframe. Latest model guidance is suggesting these low clouds might stick around for the afternoon even after the rain showers move out, which may limit the strength of some of the thunderstorms that are expected to form in the afternoon - especially down in the Jackson TAF site area.

MARINE
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeast wind gusts will increase to around 20 knots tonight which may touch on advisory criteria for a few hours Tuesday morning, but given the offshore flow and the short duration, we'll hold off on a headline for now.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning and again Tuesday afternoon, which the afternoon storms being potentially strong to severe.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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