Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fennville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:23PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:17 PM EST (21:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:52PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 412 Pm Est Fri Jan 25 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Saturday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Freezing spray through the day. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2019, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ845 Expires:201901260415;;919603 FZUS53 KGRR 252113 CCA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...corrected National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 412 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fennville, MI
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location: 42.65, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 201934
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
234 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 234 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
- light freezing rain showers are expected this afternoon with an
uneven glaze of ice and slippery travel possible.

- a period of relatively calm weather is expected Thursday and
Friday.

- an impactful storm system is possible this weekend, with strong winds
and low visibility possible Sunday into Sunday night.

- winter's not going away anytime soon based on extended model
guidance.

Discussion (this evening through next Wednesday)
issued at 234 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
thus far, a layer of dry air from the surface to roughly 2000 ft
reinforced by easterly flow from ontario and low-level mixing (wind
gusts upwards of 25-35 mph) has been keeping the freezing drizzle
and mist from taking hold, with only transient pockets of
precipitation and mist making it to the ground thus far. All the
while, temperatures continue to creep upward, with areas along the i-
94 corridor now at or above the freezing mark and those along i-96
not far behind. Considering the proactively treated roadways,
impacts have been few and far between so far today (and don't get us
wrong, we're not complaining!) however, we been watching an area of
convectively showery activity flare over lake michigan and west of
us-131 as an elevated frontal boundary pushes through a zone of
appreciable mid-level instability, which will translate through
much of the area as the afternoon progresses. Considering the
splotchy nature of convection as well as the aforementioned above
to near-freezing temperatures now being observed across parts of
the area, additional ice accumulations this afternoon will be
rather uneven with some areas seeing nothing to others seeing a
heavy glaze. And, based on the elevated level location of the
instability and observed radar returns, some pockets of graupel
(soft hail) are possible with the showery activity, as well. So,
the message for the remainder of the afternoon is to remain
vigilant for icy patches on roadways as perfectly clear stretches
of road may transition to a light glaze over short distances or on
overpasses.

Conditions are expected to improve overnight and into Thursday with
a few areas of patchy drizzle or flurries continuing mainly along
the lake shore. Temperatures will remain around the freezing mark
to the mid-30s toward i-94, with clouds and a gusty westerly wind
persisting through much of Thursday. Friday looks slightly more
pleasant with highs in the mid-30s area wide, relatively calm winds,
and broken cloud cover.

Attention then turns to the potential for a period of high-impact
weather this weekend. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance is
in excellent agreement that a low pressure system will eject out of
the plains Saturday morning and track through wisconsin and northern
michigan early Sunday, with the minimum pressure dropping down to
980 mb or lower while over the vicinity of northern lower
michigan. Even with expected minor forecast track wiggles in the
coming days, confidence is high that lower michigan will be on the
warm side of the system with anywhere from 0.3-0.5" of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning, some of which
may start as freezing rain north of i-96. Considering the
continued signal for modest elevated instability Saturday night, a
few thunderstorms are also possible with localized swaths of
heavier rainfall totals. For expected impacts on the snowpack or
area rivers, please see the hydrology discussion below.

Along the backside of the low Sunday afternoon, strong to perhaps
damaging winds are possible area wide as as cold air advection (vis-
a-vis sinking air) helps transport impressively strong low-level
flow into the boundary layer. Forecast ensemble guidance suggests
peak wind gusts Sunday afternoon may top off in the 45-50 mph range,
with deterministic forecast momentum transfer progs indicating the
potential to achieve even higher gusts. To experience a period such
high wind gusts would be obviously problematic with downed tree
limbs and power outages possible Sunday into Sunday night. To make
matters worse, 850 mb temperatures will fall to the -12 to -15 c
range early Sunday through Sunday night suggesting adequate over-
water instability for lake effect snow with considerable visibility
concerns area wide. Perhaps the bright side is that such high winds
would tend to fracture snowflakes, likely limiting accumulations.

Overall, all parties are encouraged to stay up to date on the
forecast the weekend storm has the potential to be more than an
"average" wind event. While there is certainly still enough time for
forecast model guidance to back down with the system, we're seeing
enough consistency at this point to warrant concern.

Looking into the extended, there's definitely a signal for continued
cold and wintry conditions across the great lakes. The ECMWF eps
suggests 850 mb temperatures will hover in the -10 to -15 c range
from this weekend and into at least the first few days of march,
which aligns well with climate prediction center forecasting a 70 to
80% chance of below normal temperatures from february 27 to march
5th. Don't put your hats and coats away just yet!

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 234 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
a challenging aviation forecast continues. Pockets of mist
continue especially at azo btl jxn with associated restrictions to
visibility and ceilings. An area of showery activity is pushing
eastward across lower michigan and will lead to light freezing
rain at mkg grr lan and non-freezing rain at azo btl jxn, though
coverage will be hit-or-miss. Otherwise, conditions are expected
to gradually improve after dark and especially toward sunrise.

Hydrology
Issued at 234 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
we are not expecting any major changes in the general scenario over
the next couple of days. This includes the ice jam at portland.

Fluctuations can be expected there, but the ice is expected to hold
in through the end of this week. We will be watching for any
additional ice jams to develop with any ice that might break up.

We are watching this weekend as we are looking at a partial melt of
the snowpack in place with temperatures well into the 40s, and
rainfall on top of that. Right now, the snowmelt and rainfall do not
look to pose a big threat by themselves. Water in the snowpack
ranges up to around 2 inches, with the highest values up north. We
do not expect those areas to see all of the snow melt. Areas down
south that may lose more of their snowpack, have much less water
that will be released. We are generally looking at half an inch of
rainfall with the weekend system before it changes back to snow.

One thing that could become an issue would be any ice jams that
could break up. The snowmelt and rainfall will give them a chance to
break up and potentially cause issues. This is something we will be
watching closely.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
miz037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
miz071>074.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Borchardt
hydrology... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 11 mi35 min ESE 12 G 20 33°F 32°F1005.9 hPa
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 20 mi17 min ESE 14 G 17 34°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 42 mi17 min SE 11 G 15 32°F 1007.2 hPa (-4.6)30°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 44 mi17 min S 2.9 G 9.9 35°F 1006.8 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI7 mi24 minSSE 91.25 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist34°F32°F92%1007.5 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI22 mi22 minSE 61.25 miLight Snow35°F32°F93%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8E6E3E5E5E4E4E5E6E7E9E10E9E11E13E13
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1 day agoW8NW6NW7N5N3CalmNE4NE4CalmE4CalmCalmSE4SE4S4S4SE6SE5SE7SE5SE5SE5SE4SE3
2 days agoE9E7E7NE6NE6NE6NE6NE5NE5NE6N4N5N6N7N8N6N6NE64CalmCalmCalmNW6W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.