Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rensselaer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:50PM Friday April 26, 2019 2:47 AM EDT (06:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:06AMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rensselaer, NY
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location: 42.66, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 260607
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
207 am edt Fri apr 26 2019

Synopsis
Another storm system brings a widespread rainfall and cooler
temperatures to the region for late tonight into Saturday
morning. Blustery conditions will return for Saturday along with
rain and mountain snow showers. It will remain chilly Sunday,
along with possible rain showers.

Near term through tonight
As of 115 am, early morning water vapor shows copious northward
deep-layer moisture advection over much of the eastern us ahead
of a digging full latitude trough. As the trough continues
eastward and assumes a negative tilt, the low level jet will
strengthen and back over the local area. Bands of showers are
ongoing on the leading edge of the associated isentropic lift
from central ny back into pa md. Expect coverage of these
showers to fill in as they track into the forecast area through
12z such that categorical pops are warranted over most of the
area by 12z. Some of the lift will be lost to saturating the dry
low levels sampled by the 00z kaly raob. The dewpoint depression
is still 18f at kalb at 05z.

As the trough continues to dig into the southeastern us and its
negative tilt increases, the forecast area gets into a quasi
warm sector for the morning and into the early afternoon. The
low level jet will be strong but does not have much of a
temperature gradient to operate on. Also, midlevel height falls
are weak for much of the day. As we do not have organized
forcing for ascent, much of the precipitation will be showery in
nature and modulated by the terrain with strong southeasterly
winds of 30-40kt at 925 mb. Midlevel lapse rates steepen and
showalter values are around zero by the afternoon and evening,
so a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. With the strong
southeasterly flow at low levels, winds will likely be quite
strong across the western slopes of the greens, berkshires, and
taconics. A low level inversion is expected to keep mixing from
becoming too deep, so forecast gusts are below advisory level at
this time. We have sided a bit toward the warmer side of
guidance with the forecast temperatures given that it does not
appear to be a steady rain for areas outside of the
southeasterly facing slopes of the higher terrain.

From about 21z today through 06z tonight, dynamic forcing for
ascent rapidly increases as the trough and associated height
falls pivot into the area. This should allow for a more
organized area of steady rainfall to arrive from southwest to
northeast. Numerical guidance is depicting a surface wave
spinning up on the approaching thermal gradient. The associated
frontogenetical forcing could result in a period of briefly
heavy rainfall at times during this period, although guidance
has backed off somewhat on this scenario. We are still not
expecting widespread flooding concerns with this system owing to
the brief nature of the stronger forcing for ascent, but some
poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out (see hydro discussion
below for more). We could see some embedded thunder as well.

Coverage of precipitation diminishes quickly after 06z, but some
upslope showers over the higher terrain should continue,
possibly mixing with snow toward daybreak.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Much colder air will move into the area behind the front later
Friday night and Saturday morning. Showers will linger in most
areas as the mid level system closes off across southern new
england Saturday morning. The atmosphere will probably become
cold enough for rain showers to mix with or change to snow
showers over the adirondacks and green mountains by Saturday
morning with some light accumulations possible. A few flakes
could even be see in the mid to upper hudson valley Saturday
morning before showers end in the afternoon. Temperatures
Saturday afternoon will be hard pressed to get out of the 40s in
many areas, with possibly some lower 50s in the hudson valley.

These temperatures will combine with westerly winds gusting to
20 to 30 mph to make for a very chilly spring day.

The second system to affect our area will move quickly eastward
from the ohio valley tracking across pennsylvania late Saturday
night and Sunday. The NAM and ECMWF are in good agreement with a
track that will be far enough north for a swath of light to
moderate precipitation for much of our area, yet far enough
south so that not all of the precipitation will be rain for our
higher elevations. The GFS is a bit farther south. At this point
we will go with low likely pops for Sunday and mention light
rain or snow for the higher elevations outside of the hudson
valley. In the hudson valley we will just go with rain for now.

Have lowered temperatures on Sunday a few degrees below model
blends as clouds and precipitation could potentially keep
temperatures only in the 40s, with even some highs in the upper
30s possible over higher elevations.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Below normal temperatures will remain in place as we close out april
and head into early may with a few chances for precipitation
(including rain snow mix in the higher terrain) within the fast
zonal flow. Since our milder than normal april ranging 3-4f degrees
above normal has led to budding vegetation from the capital region
south east, the anticipated cooler temperatures may necessitate
frost freeze products. Read on for details.

We start the period Sunday night with subsidence and a 1030-1035hpa
canadian high pressure moving into the northeast in the wake of a
departing clipper. Northwesterly flow should lead to cold air
advection overnight, advecting in 850mb isotherms between -3c to -
6c. Guidance is in good agreement with plenty of mid-level dry air
moving into eastern ny and western new england which should lead to
clearing skies. Breezy winds may be in place for the first half of
the night due to the pressure gradient between the departing clipper
and building high but winds should relax overnight. Add in dew
points falling into the 20s by Monday morning and this should lead
to a decent radiational cooling set-up with low temperatures falling
into the low to mid 30s for the hudson valley, southern berkshires
and litchfield county with the surrounding hill towns and higher
terrain dropping into the mid-upper 20s. We will continue monitoring
temperature trends but this may necessitate some frost freeze
products for the greater capital region and some areas south and
east.

High pressure takes control of the region for Monday which give us a
pleasant day despite temperatures being a few degrees cooler than
normal in the mid-upper 50s. The dry weather does not look to last
long as a shortwave embedded within the fast zonal flow and riding
along a baroclinc zone moves eastward from the midwest into the
northeast mid-atlantic overnight. As the previous forecast
discussed, there still remains some uncertainty regarding the track
of the low. The global guidance still shows some slight differences
with where the best baroclinic zone sets up which will determine if
the low tracks more into the mid-atlantic as the cmc-nh shows or a
bit further north into the northeast as the ECMWF and GFS show. For
now, we have widespread chance pops Monday night into Tuesday with
temperatures cool enough in the higher terrain of the adirondacks,
greens, berkshires and catskills to lead to rain snow mix.

By Tuesday the differences in the guidance become more apparent as
the ECMWF and cmc-nh show a strong nearly 1040hpa canadian high
sinking southward and shunting our baroclinc zone into the mid-
atlantic while the GFS keeps it firmly in place across the
northeast. For now, sided more with the ECMWF and cmc-nh out with
cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s
returning for the mid-week period along with decreasing cloud
coverage.

The next system to monitor will be for the end of the week as a more
organized system from the midwest heads east potentially leading to
overrunning precipitation.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
A warm front approaching the region will bring MVFR shra to all
terminals early this morning. Shra will continue into the
afternoon. Instability parameters look to be marginal for
thunder chances this afternoon into the evening. The public
forecast has a slight chance of thunder. This is not reflected
in the tafs. Best chances for a thunderstorm would at all taf
sites, except kgfl where instability is insufficent to support
thunderstorms. We will sort this out in future tafs.

Other issue is llws. Surface winds at TAF sites generally
remain on the light side. Winds at 2000 feet increase to 30
knots at all TAF sites by about 12z. Thus llws is initiated at
all TAF sites at 12z. Generally llws is in the 30-35 knot range.

Exception will be kpsf where winds around 40 knots are
anticipated by about 15z.

Outlook...

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of ra.

Sunday: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
Weak high pressure will bring fair and seasonably mild
conditions today, before another storm system brings widespread
rainfall and cooler temperatures to the region for Friday into
Saturday morning. Blustery conditions will return for Saturday along
with some rain and mountain snow showers. It will remain chilly
Sunday, with another chance for rain showers as a fast moving
upper level disturbance tracks nearby.

Hydrology
Flood warning remains in effect on the schroon river at
riverbank. The schroon river at riverbank will continue to
gradually fall and is forecast to go below 8 feet, moderate
flood stage, by later today.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through this evening.

Another storm system is expected to bring widespread rainfall
to the region early Friday morning into early Saturday morning.

Looks like total QPF from this system will average from 0.75
inches to 1.50 inches area wide. This may result in renewed
river rises late Friday into the upcoming weekend, especially
across portions of the adirondacks into the mohawk valley where
river levels are already running high from recent rainfall and
snowmelt. Trends will need to be watched closely, and if this
potential for heavy rain increases further, then a flood watch
would be issued. This potential would be greatly enhanced if
total rainfall amounts reach exceed 2 inches.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Thompson
short term... Mse
long term... Speciale
aviation... Okeefe
fire weather... Kl
hydrology... Kl wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 46 mi36 min S 7 G 8 55°F 1010.7 hPa48°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY8 mi57 minS 710.00 miOvercast60°F42°F52%1009.9 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY17 mi4.9 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F42°F59%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5N3CalmCalmCalmW3W3N63CalmS5N543S7CalmS7CalmCalmCalmSE4S8S9S7
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2 days agoNE5CalmCalmNW3NW4N3N4NW34E34CalmE3SE6S9S8S10SW10NE3SE3SE6S8SW8S10

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Fri -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:28 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:15 AM EDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:44 PM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.22.52.11.51123.34.455.45.24.43.42.71.910.50.823.13.84.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Fri -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:38 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.82.31.91.311.42.53.74.555.24.943.12.41.60.70.61.32.43.23.84.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.