Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rensselaer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:34PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:25 PM EST (20:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 11:34PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rensselaer, NY
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location: 42.66, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 141747
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1247 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Unseasonably cold and blustery today with lake effect snow
showers diminishing in the afternoon. Tonight will be the
coldest night of the year for most areas under high pressure. An
approaching low pressure system will bring a wintry mix to the
area Thursday evening into early Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 12:30pm est... Temperatures remain chilly across the region
only in the upper 20s to near freezing with teens in the
adirondacks. With continued cold air advection and strong winds
gusting up to around 25 - 30 knots today, temperature likely may
only rise a degree or two more so many places likely only peak
near or just under the freezing mark. Adjusted winds as well in
the latest update to reflect stronger ongoing gusts. Besides
gusty winds and cold temperatures, flurries and isolated snow
showers are ongoing in the catskills based on latest radar
trends with flakes observed on the nys mesonet cameras in this
area. Increased pops to slight chance through 20z after which
any snow showers should be end as northwest flow off the lakes
should starts to subside.

Heading into tonight, high pressure builds in the region which
should help weaken the winds and lead to clearing skies. Thus,
expecting a very cold night thanks to near ideal radiational
cooling accompanied with very low dew points in the single
digits. Latest hi-res guidance shows only thin cirrus across the
region with the thicker clouds remaining well south of our cwa.

Mos guidance shows a few hours of clr in the latest output for
ddh, alb and gfl so continued the latest forecast with lows in
the single digits and teens throughout this area with even some
sub- zero readings in the adirondacks. Some more clouds could
linger in the mid- hudson valley to NW ct so still thinking
these spots may be a tad warmer in the teens to near 20. A quick
look at record lows for nov 15 shows we could challenge some
records with these temperatures.

Short term Thursday through Friday
Upper low now spinning near the ARKLATEX will drift eastward and
possibly become an open wave Thursday into Friday as it moves up
the ohio valley and into southern new england. A pair of surface
lows are forecast to develop on either side of the southern
appalachians, with the western low weakening and the eastern low
strengthening as it moves toward the nyc area by 12z Friday.

Isentropic lift will strengthen Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night as warmer, moister air overruns the cold airmass in place
in the northeast. Ascent will be enhanced by the equatorward
entrance region of a strong upper jet. As the upper low
approaches and the surface low strengthens, the lower level
temperature gradient will contract, supporting an area of
frontogenesis between roughly 09-18z Friday. So widespread
wintry precipitation is likely from Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning, but the details are still a bit murky.

The precipitation is expected to start out as snow everywhere
with wetbulb temperatures below freezing throughout the column.

This should support a quick burst of accumulating snow spreading
from south to north over the entire forecast area between
around 18z Thursday and 03z Friday. This could result in some
issues for the Thursday evening commute, especially from the
capital district south. After that, a warm nose aloft is
forecast to approach from the south and east, which should allow
precipitation to mix with sleet and freezing rain from south to
north through about 12z. At this point, is appears likely that
the southern adirondacks will remain mostly if not all snow from
this event as the warm nose does not reach the area. The
transition zone may feature p-type changes based on precip
intensity. There are also indications that a dry slot works in
from 03-12z Friday, which would result in decreasing precip
intensity and perhaps a change to freezing drizzle as soundings
suggest ice nuclei are lost. This is depicted in the 00z
nam gfs, while the latest ECMWF appears colder and would support
more in the way of snowfall. Between roughly 12 and 18z, the a
good frontogenesis signature works its way from west to east
across the area, which may allow some areas to change back to
snow with precip intensity increasing. There is not great
agreement on this scenario, though. Boundary layer temps
increasing after 12z south and east of albany may allow for a
period of plain rain, although a return to wintry precip is
possible if rates are high enough in the potential fgen band(s).

At this time, not enough confidence to go with any winter
headlines, as there is still high model spread with respect to
qpf and p-type. Current forecast message is for the potential
for 3-7" of snow sleet and up to 0.10" ice, Thursday evening
into Friday morning except over the southern adirondacks where
it will be more like 6-9" snow. Regardless of particular
accumulations, there is a high probability that the Friday
morning commute will be impacted just about everywhere in the
forecast area.

Temperatures should creep above freezing most areas below 1500
feet elevation after the precip ends Friday late morning into
the afternoon. Lake enhanced upslope snow should continue after
18z for the southern adirondacks and perhaps the southern
greens.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
The region will remain under a longwave trough through the
period as short waves rotate about the upper low over hudson's
bay canada as it drifts southward. There are difference amongst
the guidance regarding the timing and amplitude of the individuals
short waves which impacts the timing of their associated systems
fronts across the region.

Overall looking at chances for mainly snow showers to the north
and west of the capital district due to lake enhancement and cyclonic
flow Friday night through Saturday night. High pressure at the
surface is expected to quickly slide across the region Sunday however
another short wave system will be on the approach. As this system
approaches and moves through will have a chances for mainly snow
showers across the area Sunday night and Monday. In wake of the
system, expecting more showers due to lake enhancement and
cyclonic flow for Monday night.

Below normal temperatures are expected with departures of by 5
to 10 degrees. An even colder airmass is expected to be ushered
Monday night and Tuesday with departures of 15 to 20 degrees
possible.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
There continues to be sct-bkn CIGS around 5-7 kft thanks to
lingering clouds from lake effect activity. As high pressure
approaches, any lake effect will end, which should allow for these
clouds to gradually diminish by evening. As a result, clear
skies are expected for the entire region for the overnight
hours. During the morning on Thursday, high level clouds should
increase from south to north across the area, but conditions
will remainVFR through the entire TAF period.

With good mixing in place, gusty winds will continue this
afternoon. NW winds will be 10 to 20 kts with some gusts of
25-30 kts at times. These winds will diminish this evening with
the loss of daytime heating mixing and winds will be light to
calm by midnight for all sites. On Thursday morning, winds will
be light from a e-ne direction for all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite
sn... Sleet... Fzdz.

Friday: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn... Sleet.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Fire weather
Unseasonably cold weather through tonight with lake effect snow
diminishing. A system will bring widespread wintry
precipitation to the region Thursday afternoon into Friday.

Hydrology
Mainly dry weather is expected through tonight aside from some
lingering lake effect snow. A low pressure system will bring
widespread wintry precipitation to the region Thursday afternoon
into Friday. The precipitation may become rain or freezing rain
especially from the capital district south Thursday night into
Friday morning. QPF ranges from around 0.60 to 1.30 inches, with
the heaviest amounts over the mid hudson valley, litchfield
county, and the berkshires where rivers are already running
high. Flooding on the main stem rivers is not expected, but some
urban and poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out due to the
saturated ground.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Frugis speciale
short term... Thompson
long term... Iaa
aviation... Frugis
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 45 mi56 min 34°F 1031 hPa16°F
TKPN6 46 mi38 min N 8.9 G 15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY8 mi35 minNW 17 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F9°F38%1032 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY17 mi92 minNW 13 G 2015.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F10°F40%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12
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1 day agoS5CalmSE4SE3S7S9S9S7S6SW6S6S3NE3CalmN4NW5N5N3N4N5NW9NW8NW5NW5
2 days agoNW11W8W8W5S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S4S6S4S6S7CalmS7S5SW4S6SE4S6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 04:03 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:18 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EST     4.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.91.20.4-00.41.62.83.53.943.42.51.81.510.50.71.83.14.14.74.94.5

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Wed -- 03:34 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:17 AM EST     3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:49 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     4.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.60.90.20.10.92.133.53.83.732.21.71.30.80.61.22.33.54.24.64.64.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.