Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 4:20 AM   Moonset 5:15 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KALY 050737 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 337 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
As a storm system approaches from the west, rain will continue to overspread the area into this morning. The rain will persist through the day today, with much cooler temperatures. Clouds will break for some sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for showers returns Wednesday into the latter portion of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Rain continues to overspread the region from SW to NE into early this morning. Today will be cool, raw and damp. Widespread rain will persist across the entire area, with decent isentropic lift occurring well ahead of a frontal system tracking east from the central to lower Great Lakes. Fairly substantial S-SW flow(850 mb v- component wind anomalies of +1 to +3 STDEV) will continue to result in abundant moisture, with PWAT anomalies to +1 to +2 STDEV. A short wave trough aloft providing additional lift will also be moving eastward across the region ahead of the surface front. With plenty of clouds/rain around and a persistent surface S-SE wind, highs will only reach the lower/mid 50s in lower elevations with 40s in the mountains.

Steady rain will become more showery this evening, as the short wave aloft moves through with the surface front still lagging back to our west. Will continue to mention likely/categorical PoPs through the evening. The short wave tracks east into New England overnight, while the surface front approaches from central NY. So scattered showers could linger through the overnight hours. Total rainfall expected to be around 0.50-1.25" with the greatest amounts in the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks where the S-SW low level jet intersects the higher terrain. The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns given dry conditions over the past several days.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The flow will shift to a more W-NW direction as zonal flow aloft sets up on Mon. However, the slow-moving front will still be tracking E-SE across the area during the morning to early afternoon hours. So while there will be a drying trend through the day, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible along the front as it passes through. PWATs lower considerably late in the day, as surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great Lakes. Breaks of sunshine should occur during the afternoon. With good mixing developing and mild temperatures aloft, highs should reach the mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys.

High pressure builds east into our region Mon night into Tue, providing dry/tranquil conditions. With clearing skies Mon night, lows look to be mainly in the 40s. Dry, sunny and warm weather expected on Tue with high pressure remaining in place.
With a light NW breeze and dry low levels, highs could reach the mid/upper 70s in most lower elevation locations.

After a dry evening, chances for showers will start to increase overnight as a warm front associated with an eastward advancing cyclone over the central Great Lakes quickly approaches. Will continue mention of chance PoPs for now due to some timing differences among the guidance. Lows will be a bit milder with the increasing clouds, ranging from mid/upper 40s north of Albany to mid 50s south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Unsettled conditions through the long term period, as upper level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/upper midwest, and gradually builds eastward. Mid/upper level disturbances ahead of the developing trough will bring several rounds of showers and/or steady rainfall to the region during the period.

Initial disturbance tracks across the region Wednesday. Long- term guidance suggests some respectable instability/mid level lapse rates track across the region with this disturbance, especially areas south of I-90. Depending on the exact track and timing of this system, there could be strong thunderstorms, especially areas south of I-90. Second disturbance tracks just south of the region Thursday-Thursday night, bringing another round of showers or steady rain. Yet another disturbance may bring showers or steady rain for a portion of Saturday.

Temperatures will trend below normal during the period, although initially may be above normal Wednesday with highs in the 70s for some valley areas south/east of Albany. Otherwise, highs mainly in the 50s and 60s, perhaps even cooler should widespread steady rainfall occur. Lows in the 40s, with some 30s possible across higher elevations.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06Z Monday...A frontal system approaching from the west will bring occasional rain to the TAF sites through most of Sunday.

As of 130 AM EDT, band of mainly light rain currently extends from eastern Catskills into mid Hudson Valley/NW CT, affecting KPOU. This light rain will continue slowly expanding northeast through daybreak, encompassing all TAF sites by 12Z/Sun.
Initially, the rain will be light with VFR Vsbys and VFR to MVFR Cigs. Cigs will then lower to low MVFR through most of Sunday, with areas of IFR possible, especially within any heavier pockets of rain, and also across some higher terrain areas.
Vsbys will vary between VFR and MVFR, although some IFR Vsbys could occur within any moderate rainfall.

Steady rain should taper off from west to east between roughly 22Z/Sun-03Z/Mon. Some lingering showers/drizzle and areas of fog will be possible in the wake of the steady rain tonight through early Monday morning, with MVFR/IFR Vsbys and IFR Cigs likely.

Winds will be mainly southeast to south at 8-12 KT through Sunday, with some gusts up to 20-25 KT, especially at KALB.
Winds will become south to southwest and decrease to 5-10 KT later Sunday evening.

Low level wind shear is possible at any TAF sites where winds decrease to less than 10 KT Sunday afternoon. At this time, it appears winds at the TAF sites will remain above this level, so no low level wind shear has been indicated at this time, however trends will need to be watched for possible subsequent inclusion.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:10 AM EDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:37 PM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:10 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:53 AM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:20 PM EDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Albany, NY,