Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ipswich, MA

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Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:15PM Saturday July 21, 2018 11:16 PM EDT (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 1:00AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 951 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 951 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres off the mid-atlantic coast will lift north tonight and Sunday to bring a tropical airmass accompanied by showers, tstms and gusty se winds. Bermuda high pres will build west Mon through Thu keeping the tropical airmass connection over the waters. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ipswich, MA
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location: 42.68, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 220202
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1002 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure with tropical moisture moves N NW along the nj coast
tonight with its attending warm front approaching new england.

This setup will bringing showers and thunderstorms with torrential
downpours and gusty winds very late tonight into Sunday. Bermuda
high pressure then builds west toward southern new england next
week bringing tropical humidity and warm temperatures. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and again Thursday
with drier conditions likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through Sunday
10 pm update...

focus upon the oncoming tropical environment. Continuous evaluation
of near-term high-res guidance with respect to trends.

Bands of showers embedded thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon.

Torrential rainfall and localized urban flash flooding remains the
biggest concern, but the low risk continues for an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two with the potential of producing damaging winds,
not ruling out the very low threat of a brief tornadic waterspout
spin-up.

Oncoming tropical environment a nudge upon which, whether low-level
convergent wind driven and or destabilizing, undoubtedly will yield
torrential rainfall and the threat of localized flash flooding.

Ignoring forecast model rainfall amounts and focusing on the highly
anomalous precipitable water and low-level jet axes as the region
of concern for localized flash flooding. Concern along the pvd-bos
corridor going into early Sunday morning.

Short term Sunday night
* highlights: overnight into Sunday...

* showers embedded t-storms with localized torrential rainfall
* a localized urban flash flood threat exists
* low risk for a severe thunderstorm or two on sun
* high surf dangerous rip currents along the south coast sun
* details...

low pressure off the mid atlantic coast will induce a 925 mb se
llj 6+ standard deviations above normal this evening across S nj!
this low will track to the N NW and weaken a bit as it lifts into
n central pa by 12z. This will take the best forcing heaviest
rainfall w. Nonetheless, we still will be dealing with a S low
level jet 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal overnight and
Sunday with pwats 2+ inches. This will result in bands of showers
and embedded thunderstorms. Locally torrential rainfall can be
expected with some of the activity when combined with the anomalous
forcing high pwats.

1) heavy rainfall localized urban flash flood threat... .

While a few showers will be possible before midnight, the bulk of
the showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur after midnight
when the warm front approaches with attendant instability. This
coupled with an anomalous low level jet of 30 to 50 knots and
pwats 2+ standard deviations above normal will set the stage for
pockets of torrential rainfall possible localized urban flash
flooding. While the entire region is subject to this threat during
the morning... Appears the focus will shift to central if not eastern
new england by Sunday afternoon. This a result of the deeper moisture
axis stronger low level jet blocked from departing the region by
upper level ridging over the atlantic. Uncertainty where this
axis might set up... But perhaps west of the CAPE cod canal to
perhaps the worcester hills. That is where we are most concerned
about localized urban flash flooding... If 1 to 2 inches of rain
fall in less than an hour in the typically prone locations.

Confidence was not high enough to hoist a flash flood watch but
later shifts will have to monitor model trends overnight.

2) severe weather threat...

the overall severe weather threat appears low very late tonight
into Sunday morning as strongest forcing with surface low will
be passing well west of our region. Nonetheless... There will be
several hundred j kg of MUCAPE by 12z Sunday across much of the
region. There also will be very impressive 0 to 1 km helicity
along the warm front. The threat for a brief tornado Sunday morn
is low but non-zero given several hundred units of helicity.

However... Given the triple point passing so far west of the
region and the many mesoscale processes that need to come
together it appears to be a rather low probability. Nonetheless,
it is something we need to watch.

We also can not rule out the low risk for an severe t-storm or
two Sunday afternoon. Despite poor mid level lapse rates and an
abundance of clouds... Dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s
should generate near 1000 j kg of cape. Given 70+ dewpoints in
place... An isolated wet microburst or two can not be ruled out.

Also... Given stronger winds off the deck heavy showers embedded
t-storms may result in some general gusty winds.

3) high surf advisory:
a high surf advisory has been issued for ocean exposed beaches
on the south coast, CAPE and islands Sunday. Anomalous southerly
llj will allow for 6 to 9 foot seas across the south coast. The
result will be the potential for high surf dangerous rip currents
on these ocean exposed beaches.

Sunday night...

scattered showers and embedded t-storms with locally heavy
rainfall will continue Sunday night. We should see the focus
for the activity shift back into the interior... As upper level
ridging builds westward from the atlantic. High dewpoints in
place will keep low temperatures from dropping below 70 in most
locations.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Highlights...

* tropical humidity through at least Thursday
* greatest risk for showers t-storms Sun ngt-mon & again thu
* drier weather possible Tue and wed
Monday...

anomalous subtropical ridge retrogrades westward into new england
with 594 dam heights into the region! These rising heights shifts
tropical moisture plume westward into ny state as the day
progresses. Thus drier weather advecting into the area from east to
west as seen in model pwat and k indices fields decreasing. Yes, not
your typical advection pattern. So risk for showers in the morning
and then a drying trend from off the ocean into eastern ma trending
westward in the afternoon. Given rising heights warming temps aloft
will not include thunder in the forecast. Very tropical feel to the
day with highs 80-85 and dew pts in the mid 70s!
Tuesday and Wednesday...

good agreement among ensembles and deterministic data sets for
subtropical ridge to continue building westward into new england
with 500 mb heights of 591-594 dam across southern new england. This
will shunt tropical moisture plume north and west of our region.

Thus Tue and Wed could turn out to be mainly dry given subsidence
and deep layer dry air aloft. However can t rule out a few tropical
isolated low top showers. Tropical airmass will remain over the
region with highs 80-85 and dew pts 70-75. Other than some patchy
morning fog possible, could be looking at two good beach days
especially across CAPE cod and nantucket, closest to the subtropical
ridge... A taste of bermuda weather.

.

Thursday...

ensembles and deterministic guidance both suggest northern stream
trough enters the great lakes. This provides cyclonic flow into new
england along with cold front approaching new england. Thus
probability of showers and t-storms on the increase. Warm and humid
conditions continue with highs 80-85 and dew pts 70-75.

Friday...

ensembles suggest FROPA sometime fri-sat time period so expecting
the tropical humidity to finally break. However still warm with
ensembles offering +16c or so at 850 mb over new england.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight into Sunday...

MVFR-lifr conditions advect in off the ocean from southeast to
northwest as the night wears along, persisting into Sunday. Bands
of shra and embedded tsra with +ra mainly after midnight into
Sunday will result in brief localized lifr conditions. Llws also
a concern.

Sunday night...

building upper level ridge may allow for improvement to MVFR and
perhaps evenVFR across portions of eastern new england Sunday
night. MVFR to ifr conditions most likely across our interior
zones... Where the focus for shra and embedded tsra will setup.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Tuesday through Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Chance shra.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra.

Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday: MVFR. Breezy. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday night through Friday: chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight through Sunday night...

anomalous southerly low level jet will allow seas to build
across our southern waters to between 5 and 10 feet across our
open waters through Sunday. East to southeast wind gusts of 20
to 30 knots also expected very late tonight into Sunday... So
small craft headlines posted for all waters. Given the westward
shift in the mid atlantic low pressure system... Feel that wind
gusts should stay mainly below gale thresholds so opted to go
with small craft headlines. In addition... Showers and embedded
t-storms along with fog patches will result in poor visibility
for mariners at times very late tonight into Sunday.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory from 8 am to 7 pm edt Sunday for maz020-
022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory from 8 am to 7 pm edt Sunday for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Sunday for anz231>234-251.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 6 pm edt Sunday for anz230-
236.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz235-237-250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Frank nocera
near term... Frank sipprell
short term... Frank
long term... Frank nocera
aviation... Frank nocera sipprell
marine... Frank nocera sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 18 mi73 min ESE 12 G 14 67°F 66°F2 ft1019.3 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 23 mi77 min E 9.9 G 11 66°F 1020.5 hPa (+0.0)61°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi35 min 66°F 1019.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi27 min E 12 G 14 66°F 68°F2 ft1019.7 hPa (+0.0)62°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 26 mi92 min E 1 57°F 56°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 36 mi41 min 69°F3 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 41 mi73 min E 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 69°F2 ft1019.5 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 46 mi29 min N 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 68°F1021.3 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 48 mi77 min NW 1 60°F 60°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi27 min E 12 G 14 66°F 2 ft1020.3 hPa (+0.0)63°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA8 mi24 minE 410.00 miFair65°F60°F84%1019.7 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA16 mi23 minENE 410.00 miOvercast68°F59°F73%1021 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA23 mi23 minE 810.00 miOvercast67°F61°F81%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE7SE7SE7SE7E11SE11E7SE10SE9E11E4E7E8E4
1 day agoSE3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE5SE8SE9SE11SE11SE14SE9SE11SE10SE5SE6SE6SE4
2 days agoN7N7N5N6N5NW4CalmNW4N5NW4N7CalmN8SE13SE11SE10SE8SE7SE7SE8S6S5S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Island Sound (south end), Massachusetts
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Plum Island Sound (south end)
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Sat -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     8.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:40 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:37 PM EDT     9.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.50.724.16.27.78.48.175.23.41.80.90.81.73.65.97.88.998.36.74.7

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
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Sat -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT     1.54 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:17 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:54 PM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-0.700.611.41.40.8-0-0.6-0.8-0.9-1-0.9-0.20.50.81.31.61.10.3-0.3-0.8-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.