Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:21PM Sunday June 25, 2017 11:46 PM EDT (03:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 9:44PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-170623t0115z/ 844 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 915 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... At 844 pm edt...a strong Thunderstorm was located near the ambassador bridge...moving northeast at 30 knots. Hazard...wind gusts to 40 knots. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Grosse pointe around 855 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 910 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...st clair flats old channel light and mt clemens harbor of refuge around 915 pm edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4255 8259 4256 8263 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4232 8312 4238 8295 4245 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8263 4261 8254 4262 8260 4261 8258 4260 8255 4261 8253 time...mot...loc 0044z 241deg 29kt 4238 8306 hail...0.00in wind...40kts
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201706230115;;663543 FZUS73 KDTX 230044 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 844 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 LCZ423-460-230115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260344
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1144 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017

Aviation
Equivalent potential temperature plan view analyses show the main
axis of midlevel moisture remains sheared out across the northern
cwa. This corresponds well with light shower activity that persists
over the northern forecast area particularly downwind of saginaw
bay. There is little forecasted movement of this moisture axis
tonight. With the moisture flux upstream off of lake michigan, a low
chance for a shower will continue throughout the night.VFR to MVFR
stratocumulus will be widespread solely due to the magnitude of cold
air in the lower troposphere. Maintained the tempo group for showers
during the late afternoon for kmbs and kfnt. Compact surface trough
and main cyclonic circulation will push down into the northern cwa
and track across during the afternoon. This added convergence should
be more than enough to focus another persistence forecast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low to moderate for cigs AOB 5kft tonight.

* low for winds reaching crosswind thresholds from 270 degrees

Prev discussion
Issued at 327 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017
discussion...

the train of embedded upper level waves PV anomalies and re-
enforcing cold pools will continue through Monday evening. 12z apx
raob checked in with an impressive -24 c temp at 500 mb, and based
off the SPC climo sounding site, appears to be record territory.

Fortunately, surface dew pts have lowered into the 45 to 50 degree
range (outside of where it has rained), which has limited surface
based instability to 500 j kg or less and no lightning detected so
far this afternoon over southeast michigan.

The main large circulation tracking through lake huron
this morning did touch off thunderstorms over lake
huron and eastern thumb region however. Meanwhile, a smaller
circulation over central lower michigan is advancing southeast,
allowing for some modest mid level moisture advection, and should
maintain some shower activity into early evening hours. Cool airmass
(mid single temps at 850 mb) and west-southwest flow behind this
feature tonight. Some lake michigan enhancement showers appear
possible as 850 mb thermal trough swings east, as lapse rates in the
5-10 kft (per rap) layer appear sufficient to support isolated to
possibly low scattered activity working east overnight.

One last upper level wave cold pool, currently near western lake
superior slowly dropping southeast, with 850 mb temps progged to
lower to 2 to 4 c Monday evening. However, showers may be hard to
come by during the day as drying 850-700 mb theta-e minimum
encompasses southeast michigan. As been the case the past couple of
days, best chance of activity will be toward saginaw bay, closest
to the mid level circulation trough and the mild waters of saginaw
bay.

Upper level northwest confluent flow allowing for large anticyclone
to build into midwest Monday night, and into the western ohio valley
during Tuesday. Late june insolation and westerly flow over southern
lower michigan should allow for good temp recovery, with highs
reaching into the mid 70s.

A surface high pressure and ridging aloft will keep conditions dry
across michigan during the morning and afternoon hours as low level
clouds start to build into the region ahead of a low pressure
system. As the surface low moves from minnesota into northern lower
michigan Wednesday into Thursday, it will drag along a warm front
with it, bringing likely rain and thunderstorm chances to southeast
michigan. Confidence it moderate to borderline-high regarding seeing
scattered showers and storms throughout Thursday, however,
additional model runs will be needed to pinpoint timing, as the
ecmwf run brings the precipitation in late Wednesday into Thursday,
while the GFS and gem runs hold off on precipitation until the early
to mid-morning hours on Thursday. This system will be something to
keep an eye on given the flooding and saturated conditions across
central michigan, as localized heavy rainfall will be possible with
storms that do develop, given the impressive moisture transport and
pw values averaging 1.6 inches.

Confidence is starting to rise regarding rain and thunderstorm
chances late Friday into Saturday as a weak surface low pushes
northeast from iowa into lower michigan, as seen in the ECMWF and
gem runs. For comparison, the ECMWF run had this low coming through
michigan throughout Friday during yesterday's run, and it was absent
from the gem run. The GFS fails to resolve a low pressure system
tracking into michigan unlike the gem ecmwf, however, it holds a
weak low pressure system across the u.P, which would allow a warm
front to provide some lift for showers and thunderstorms. As the
expected low moves east out of michigan by Saturday, rain chances
will diminish, especially as ridging aloft builds into the midwest
early next week.

Marine...

fresh westerly breeze over nearshore zones will ease tonight
allowing the small craft advisories for lakes erie and saint clair
to expire on schedule. Resurgence of gusty west wind on Monday will
likely warrant another round of small craft advisories including at
least saginaw bay and lake erie. Light to moderate wind will then
dominate until the arrival of the next system Wednesday into
Thursday. Moderate southerly wind will transition to fresh
southeasterly during this time, the stable southerly fetch limiting
gustiness.

Hydrology...

scattered diurnal showers will continue this afternoon and again on
Monday. Though rain may briefly be heavy on a local basis, basin
average rainfall is expected to remain under one tenth of inch on
each day and no noteworthy response to area rivers and streams is
anticipated. The next chance for organized rainfall will be
Wednesday night into Thursday when up to one half inch of rain will
be possible. The tittabawassee river crested Saturday evening and
remains in major flood stage at this time. However, river levels
continue to fall and flood waters will follow suit. Meanwhile, the
saginaw river continues to slowly rise and will crest on Tuesday
morning at moderate flood stage.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Monday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Monday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Monday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi46 min W 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi46 min W 5.1 G 6 65°F 1018 hPa (+0.9)44°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi52 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F45°F63%1017.6 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi53 minW 610.00 miOvercast61°F51°F70%1017 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmSW8S6S5CalmSW3SW4SW6SW5N3E6SE8SW4W8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.