Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:38PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-171008t0415z/ 1125 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorms have moved out and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4185 8345 4235 8304 4237 8299 4236 8293 4231 8307 4224 8313 4216 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4177 8336 time...mot...loc 0324z 222deg 57kt 4256 8295 4227 8289 4208 8292
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201710080334;;532427 FZUS73 KDTX 080325 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1125 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-080334-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 220847
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
347 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Discussion
Early morning fog will persist several more hours until a warm front
lifts north and showers fill in across the area. Overall
visibilities have improved over the last few hours with only
sporadic 1 4sm observations being noted across SE mi. Though fog
will remain across the area for several hours, only locally dense
fog is expected here on out, thus the headline will expire at 4am
and we'll handle any brief pockets of dense fog with spss.

Active stretch of weather to start the new work week as a dynamic
and very mature low mid level low over the plains continues it's
march toward the great lakes. Models in good agreement with the
center of the low tracking through mid mi late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Several rounds of rain showers will pass through the region
associated with this low and the several fronts connected to it.

Timing these periods of showers and possible dry slots seems to be
one of the biggest forecast challenges early on. Model soundings
show temperatures above freezing across all of SE mi up through
about 700mb keeping ptype all liquid through Tuesday morning.

In advance of the low, the lead wings of isentropic ascent along a
warm front, current draped just south of the mi border, will provide
the first round of rain showers this morning. The band of showers
has already come together as seen on regional radar mosaic and
should lift into the state by about 09z. Strong low level jet
starting to nose into SW lower mi should keep this band progressive
lifting it north of the m59 corridor by 17z as the warm front itself
pushes north. Good moisture and forcing should allow a quick quarter
inch of QPF with this band as it lifts through.

Models vary with handling the pops during the daytime hours as it
appears there is 2 distinct dry slots rotating about the low. First
one is lifting northward just ahead of the first cold front and
could clip the metro detroit area this afternoon from about 17-20z.

Coverage of showers will decrease but still could see some scattered
light showers. The cold front them moves through and is losing its
definition due to occluding processes and distance from the low.

Still should see a second batch of showers pass east through the
area after 20z. Meanwhile, with the warm front stalling over mid mi
the east west oriented isentropic band could stall across the
saginaw valley and thumb leading to rain through most of the day.

The next dry slot then looks to lift up and through southern mi
between about 00-06z Tuesday ahead of the secondary cold front
located much closer to the low. Water vapor imagery shows this dry
slot very well so the only question is do showers start bubbling up
and filling back into the dry slot as its sliding though? In terms
of the forecast, will recognize the dry slots with chance pops and
highlight the frontal bands with likely or categorical pops.

The center of the low and mid level pv MAX will keep at least
scattered showers around through the rest of the night.

Northwesterly winds on the backside of the low will usher in a
colder airmass but still plenty of moisture to work with as the
deformation band passes through on Tuesday. We will be dealing with
a cooling boundary layer which could bring about a mix of rain and
snow later in the day. At this point still expecting any snow
accumulations to be on the light side as change over won't occur til
waning hours of the event late Tuesday evening.

Event total rainfall amounts should range from around a half inch
near the ohio border to around 1 inch north of i69. This much
rainfall over frozen ground with recent snow melt could cause some
flooding concerns. Look for area rivers to rise with runoff and
ponding in low lying areas also seems quite probable.

Quiet weather returns through the mid late week as ridging builds
into the region. Temps will fall back to late january normals with
highs around freezing and lows in the 20s. Models advertising the
next system to arrive over the weekend. Model consensus currently
points toward another warm event across lower mi as the surface low
is north of the area pulling warm air back up through the region.

Marine
Low pressure will track toward the central great lakes today and
tonight, reaching the central lake huron waters by Tuesday morning.

Easterly winds will strengthen today as this system approaching,
leading to a period of gales over the north half of lake huron this
afternoon and evening. The system will also produce widespread
coverage of precipitation, primarily rain from saginaw bay southward
and a wintry mix to the north. Wind will diminish as the low moves
through central lake huron overnight and Tuesday. Northwest wind
trailing the system could approach gales briefly Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Winds will ease by Wednesday as weak high pressure
builds into the region.

Hydrology
Mild and moist conditions across the region will result in periodic
bouts of rainfall through the daylight period. This environment
will also work to to melt any remaining snow cover while the ground
remains mostly frozen. Efficient runoff from both the melting snow
and rainfall could result in ponding of water on roads and other
prone areas. Rivers, creeks and streams around the region could also
become elevated due to runoff. Total rainfall is expected to be
around 1 inch through Monday night, with most falling during the
day.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1156 pm est Sun jan 21 2018
aviation...

saturation, clouds, fog has developed aggressively over southeastern
michigan prior to nightfall immediately on the cool side of a
surface warm front that is draped across portions of northern ohio.

This has led to dense fog at the detroit terminals. Forecast
soundings and plan view perspective of some parameters support dense
fog to remain in place over southeastern michigan through
approximately 09z tonight. At that time, widespread rain is expected
to lift northward through the area which will support some
disruption to near surface layer. What remains lower confidence is
how progressive or how far northward the dense fog will make it
during the early stages of tonight because the warm front will be
slow to move and some easterly flow may advect some drier air north
of metro detroit. Widespread rain is expected to lift from south to
north between 09-15z before a dry slot causes low level moisture to
strip out. The exception will be mbs, where widespread rain is
expected throughout the day. Have went aggressive with ifr and lifr
conditions within the rain tomorrow for kfnt and kmbs. A significant
dry slot will then be a main influence over aviation weather through
late Monday night.

For dtw... Dense fog is expected to be in place through approximately
09z, when widespread rain will then lift into the terminal.

Widespread rain 09-16z transitioning to a period ofVFR conditions
Monday afternoon. A period of showers with some ifr will again be
possible by Monday evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less through Monday.

* high for visibility less than 1 2 mile tonight.

* high for ceiling 200 feet or less tonight.

* high for rain as precipitation type tonight and Monday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi81 min NNE 2.9 G 8 33°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi51 min S 2.9 G 5.1 45°F 1012.5 hPa44°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi26 minESE 60.75 miLight Rain38°F38°F100%1011.8 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi28 minE 61.50 miFog/Mist37°F36°F96%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4SE4SE4SW4S6S3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3SE5E3E3SE5E3E5SE5SE4SE4E6
1 day agoSW11
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SW11W10W6W8SW7CalmSW3SW5SW5SW5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW3S3CalmS4
2 days agoSW8
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W13SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.