Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:37PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:31 PM EDT (16:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:37AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0050.000000t0000z-170904t2300z/ 652 Pm Edt Mon Sep 4 2017
.the special marine warning will expire at 700 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... St. Clair river... While Thunderstorms have weakened significantly, expect occasional lightning and heavy downpours along with isolated wind gusts to near 30 knots. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 pm edt for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4262 8252 4255 8258 4254 8266 4238 8282 4232 8307 4224 8313 4211 8313 4210 8322 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8294 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4274 8252 4275 8248 time...mot...loc 2250z 262deg 50kt 4283 8189 4228 8280
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201709042300;;893398 FZUS73 KDTX 042252 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 652 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017 LCZ422-423-460-042300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201057
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
657 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Aviation
The departure of a mid cloud deck overnight with light winds and
abundant low level moisture has led to the development of widespread
fog low stratus this morning. Taking into consideration a late
september Sun angle, it will likely take until late morning or early
afternoon for conditions to improve to MVFR. Afternoon mixing will
attempt to erode the low clouds. Slight warming above the cloud layer
should hold MVFR or low endVFR strato CU in place through the
afternoon. A frontal boundary will stall as it lifts into northwest
lower mi tonight. mbs will be in fairly close proximity to the
instability axis. This will pose a chance for some late night
convection at mbs, the chances of which remain a bit low to include
in the terminal attm.

For dtw... Occasional dense fog is expected to persist through
roughly 13z before daytime mixing starts a steady improving trend.

The onset of daytime heating will lead to widely variable cig vsby
conditions through the morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 ft through this afternoon. Low
tonight.

* high in CIGS vsby at or below 200ft one half mile through roughly
13z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 344 am edt Wed sep 20 2017
discussion...

upper level low over ohio is slowly drifting SE away from lower mi
as longwave ridge continues to strengthen overhead. The weakening
low has sent one final moisture surge, located along the 700-850mb
theta E gradient, northward which is about to pass over saginaw bay
as of 07z. This appears to be its last gasp with any lingering
showers more of a mist out of the low stratus and fog due to the
abundant low level moisture in place. The low will fade away through
the day as ridging overtakes it.

Meanwhile further west, a strong shortwave rotating around the
longwave trough will get slung northeastward through the northern
plains into canada with the aid of a 125+ knot jet. Though this will
be far removed from the great lakes, it will pull a warm front north
through lower mi today allowing a thermal ridge approaching 17c at
850mb into the state. It will also force a cold front into the
midwest, draped from the western u.P. Down through wi into il. This
will be the focus for thunderstorm develop today into tonight west
of SE mi. The warm sector will provide us a fairly stout cap between
900-700mb which will likely prevent any storms from bleeding east
into our cwa. Models are keying in on a period after 09z
tonight Thursday morning where a wave tracking along the front
through mid mi could bring a period of shower storms to the saginaw
region. Then the front will have inched closer to lower mi keeping
low chance pops around on Thursday as well. At this point thinking
is it will be difficult for showers to be able to break the cap and
majority of the area will remain dry through the forecast period.

Other main issue will be the heat. Models are being very consistent
with the ridge supporting 850 925mb temps of 17c +20c respectively.

With dewpoints holding in the 60s limit nocturnal cooling, high temps
should easily make it into the mid 80s and possible upper 80s
Thursday through the weekend. These temps will be nearing 15f above
average for late september. Record highs for all 3 climate sites
(dtw, fnt, mbs) are all around 90f through this stretch. Something
to watch for.

Marine...

south-southeast winds (generally under 15 knots) will persist across
lake huron through the end of the week as high pressure expands from
quebec into the eastern great lakes. The winds across lake st clair
and erie will have a more easterly component, but will be much
lighter. The winds will weaken slightly over the weekend as the high
pressure expands into lower michigan.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi31 min E 7 G 8 70°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi43 min NE 1 G 2.9 72°F 1016.2 hPa67°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi36 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F64°F68%1016.3 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi38 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast68°F64°F90%1016 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5CalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3NE3NE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4S3CalmSE4SE3S4S4SW6S6
1 day agoN4NW6NW7N3E4N3CalmE3E3E3NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3NE3NE3
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CalmSW5SW3SW3CalmW4W6CalmNW3CalmNW4NW3NW4W4N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.