Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

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Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:32PM Monday August 20, 2018 5:07 AM EDT (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 635 pm edt Thu aug 9 2018 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... At 635 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located over the ambassador bridge, moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Wyandotte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4237 8283 4234 8295 4235 8296 4234 8298 4234 8299 4233 8299 4232 8305 4229 8309 4224 8313 4221 8313 4222 8315 4223 8315 4224 8314 4231 8308 4237 8292 4240 8288 4245 8287 4245 8284 4242 8278
LCZ423 Expires:201808092330;;406454 FZUS73 KDTX 092235 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 635 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018 LCZ423-460-092330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200751
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
351 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Discussion
Elevated low level moisture remains over the area characterized by
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and some added surface moisture from
yesterday's rainfall. Light winds and a period of mostly clear skies
through the early part of the night has allowed the opportunity for
patchy fog to develop this morning across parts of southeast
michigan. However, increasing mid to high clouds will keep coverage
area and visibility reduction lower than what we have experienced the
past couple days.

Satellite images early this morning show a closed upper low pressure
system becoming well organized across the central plains. This
system will drift across northern missouri towards the southern end
of lake michigan throughout today into tomorrow morning. Strong
northward moisture transport within the warm conveyor belt will bring
likely rainfall chances for southeast michigan by tonight. Lead edge
of the moisture looks to arrive this later evening riding along a
warm front being drawn northward into lower michigan. Some low
chances for precipitation may arise during the day associated with
any lake boundaries, however moisture quality decreases slightly
prior arrival of the leading edge moisture. Expect bulk of
precipitation to begin closer to midnight tonight with greatest
height falls and moisture arriving in conjunction with the low level
jet ramping up. Precipitable water values associated with this system
will be quite high pushing up to around the 2.00 inch mark.

Unfavorable diurnal timing will limit greater convective potential
and higher rainfall totals, but still anticipate a weakly unstable
profile. This will support waves of precipitation ultimately
resulting in a widespread soaking rain overnight into tomorrow
morning.

The mid level wave will begin to open up by tomorrow morning with the
surface low tracking through central lower michigan. High moisture
remains over michigan keeping higher precipitation chances in the
forecast for Tuesday. A cold front will push through southeast
michigan later in the day with more favorable diurnal timing this
time around, though higher cloud cover may limit greater instability
from being established during the day. There will still be a chance
for some embedded thunderstorm development within lingering activity.

Front should push through by late Tuesday evening, which will also
bring an end to the precipitation as the system exits to the east and
upper ridging moves overhead.

Weak upper ridging and high pressure will take hold of the great
lakes mid week and continue into the later half of the week.

Temperatures will begin to rebound back into the upper 70s and low
mid 80s for Thursday and Friday. A shortwave is forecast to move
into the western great lakes Friday afternoon and will result in
increasing rain chances for Friday night as the trough axis crosses
the central great lakes. Mid level high pressure sets up across the
southeastern us and brings more zonal flow over michigan to close
out the weekend.

Marine
A modest southeasterly wind will prevail today, as the region
remains between high pressure exiting to the east and an organizing
low pressure system over the mid mississippi valley. This will
maintain favorable boating conditions with limited wave action. The
seasonably strong system will lift into the great lakes tonight and
Tuesday. This will lead to a period of unsettled conditions with
widespread rainfall and a chance of thunderstorms during this time.

A moderate south to southeast wind in advance of this system will
turn northwesterly and strengthen in its wake late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Gusts 25 to 30 knots expected over the lake huron
Tuesday night, with the potential to briefly approach gales. Small
craft conditions likely for the nearshore waters and saginaw bay
under increasing wave heights and gusty conditions. Winds and waves
gradually decrease into Wednesday as high pressure slowly builds
into the region.

Hydrology
A seasonably strong storm system will sweep across the region
tonight and Tuesday. Widespread rainfall is expected with totals
exceeding an inch in many locations. Locally higher amounts will be
possible with any thunderstorm activity. While ponding of water will
be prevalent, a widespread flood threat is not anticipated with this
activity as local watersheds will have the capacity to absorb and
disperse.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1158 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018
aviation...

there are a lot of moving parts in the aviation forecast tonight
that are benign individually but together can prevent fog from being
as dense compared to the last few nights, or not. Satellite imagery
still indicates pockets of mid clouds developing and dissipating
over southern lower michigan associated with a pocket of higher
moisture content in the 5-10 kft level. There is also some thin
cirrus arriving from the west that is expected to thicken during the
night. This leads to a delicate balance between the mid and high
clouds and light surface wind in the determination of fog potential
through mid morning. Late evening surface observations do hint at
wind speed holding around 5 mph which is usually sufficient to
prevent ifr restriction. A few hours of MVFR fog through about mid
morning then gives way to a further increasing cloud trend through
the day while the chance of rain holds off until later Monday
evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Monday night.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi68 min ESE 8 G 9.9 73°F 1016.9 hPa (-1.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi38 min ESE 5.1 G 7 70°F 1016.3 hPa62°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair64°F62°F94%1017.3 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S6SE6SE7SE8S7S5S6S7S8S5S3SE5SE8S4S3SE4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4N4N4NW5NE3NW4NW7N6N4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSW4SW4SW5W5NW5N4CalmW4NW4NW6NW6CalmCalmN4N3NW3W4NW3W4W3NW4NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.