Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 9:04PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:40 PM EDT (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:56PMMoonset 2:49AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 548 Pm Edt Sat May 19 2018
.thunderstorms approaching lake erie shoreline and lower detroit river... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 546 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms located along a line extending from 7 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to 10 nm west of north cape...moving east at 20 knots. The activity will be capable of wind gusts near 30 knots and heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will be near... North cape, detroit river light and luna pier around 620 pm edt. Gibraltar around 625 pm edt. Bolles harbor of refuge around 630 pm edt. Monroe harbor around 635 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4176 8348 4180 8344 4180 8341 4182 8343 4188 8336 4189 8338 4189 8334 4194 8331 4192 8327 4197 8325 4202 8318 4208 8320 4210 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 4172 8347
LCZ423 Expires:201805192245;;218441 FZUS73 KDTX 192148 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 548 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-192245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 242305
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
705 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Aviation
High pressure will maintainVFR conditions this forecast period with
mainly clear skies and light winds (variable to southerly overnight
and south southwest 8-12 knots by midday Friday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 346 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
discussion...

Friday will remain warm with plenty of Sun through the day as
surface high remains in control while it drifts over the mid
atlantic states. Upper level ridge axis will be passing east in the
morning which will open the door for deep layer southwest flow into
the state, granted flow throughout most of the column will remain
below 20 knots. 850mb temps will be up around 16c which combined
with cumulative heating effects from Thursday should easily allow
temps into the mid to upper 80s.

Weekend becomes a bit more active as the remnants of the west coast
trough that became more progressive, track across southern canada
around the ridge. Main cold front is locked north of lake superior
which will have mid level wave support for an extended period of
showers and storms. Our concerns farther south begin early Saturday
morning as hires models hint at a convective cluster developing over
mn wi then tracking south along western lake mi following the better
moisture and instability gradient. Will keep an eye out to see how
far east it can push but at this point the morning looks to start
off dry. A shortwave trough then swings across lower mi in the
afternoon evening which will present a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Models show high levels of CAPE building through the
afternoon as dewpoints increase into the mid 60s. A model average of
1500 j kg is in the mix with a few models reaching up near 2000
j kg. Moisture profile is thin down low but overall pwats will be at
or above 1.3 inches. Shear is lacking due to weak flow throughout
the column with only around 20 knots to be expected. The jet being
hung up well to the north will provide no support across the local
area. A popular scenario with latest models is have the trough axis
initiate convection over SE mi late in the afternoon or evening
aided by peak heating. Not expecting severe weather at this time due
to lack of shear and upper level support, but heavy rain will be
likely with any storm. As previously mentioned, if CAPE really does
flirt with 2000 j kg, pulse severe storms could occur.

Height rises will begin Sunday as midlevel trough axis moves off to
the east. A secondary midlevel trough will swing through the
northern great lakes Sunday afternoon, but model guidance is in
disagreement as to how far south its influence will reach - latest
ecmwf run hints that this feature will be unable to contend with the
height rises over our area. Regardless of good midlevel support,
there will be plenty of instability for SE michigan with mlcape
advertised to reach 1500+ j kg. Thus, scattered thunderstorms will
remain a possibility Sunday but tweaks will need to be made to the
forecast as we continue to evaluate how the trough will evolve.

Ridging aloft fully takes over and surface high pressure moves
through for the early week. Memorial day weather looks dry and warm.

Highs through the extended period will reach the 80s each day with
overnight lows in the 60s. The next best chance for rain will come
Thursday as a trough and associated cold front push through.

Marine...

strong surface high pressure center will push southeastward out of
lower michigan and into the mid atlantic tonight. Light southwest
return flow will develop over the central great lakes with time. A
modest increase in southwesterly flow is expected for Friday and
Saturday. Southwest winds ranging between 10 to 20 knots will be
possible. A slow moving front will then slide into the northern
great lakes from the north on Saturday, bringing occasional showers
and thunderstorm activity. The front will wash out over the region
toward the end of the weekend as high pressure expands back into the
great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Drk tf
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi40 min S 6 G 8 74°F 1019 hPa (-1.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi40 min ESE 6 G 8.9 73°F 1018.7 hPa (-1.2)52°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair74°F47°F39%1019 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi47 minSW 310.00 miFair75°F48°F39%1018 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmS4SE3SW7S6SW6SW6SW5S4S5S3
1 day agoNW3SW3CalmW3CalmCalmW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3N4N6NW3E4CalmNW4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE5CalmS5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmN5CalmNW6NW5NW7NW9N6NW4NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.