Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Poestenkill, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:26PM Monday May 29, 2017 5:06 PM EDT (21:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poestenkill, NY
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location: 42.69, -73.41     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 291934
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
334 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Coverage of showers will diminish this evening, but more clouds
and showers are likely Tuesday and Wednesday, with thunderstorms
also possible as additional upper level disturbances move through
the region. A dry day is finally in store Thursday. Temperatures
will remain near to below normal.

Near term through Tuesday night
Tonight, after the initial surge of QG forcing isentropic lift
moves this afternoon, there appears to be little in the way of
additional forcing through tonight. Will keep slight chance pops
in case some remnant convection from central western nys can
migrate eastward, and also for some patchy drizzle that may
develop. Otherwise, just isolated showers with mostly cloudy
skies expected. Lows should mainly fall into the upper 40s to mid

Tuesday, another shortwave is expected to approach in the
afternoon evening. Models suggest some destabilization across
central western nys in the afternoon, with perhaps some
instability developing across the western mohawk
valley adirondacks and eastern catskills schoharie valley if a
few breaks in the clouds develop. There will be increasing 0-6
km bulk shear potentially exceeding 50 kt, ESP across the
southern adirondacks and mohawk valley by later in the day, so
if some convection migrates into western areas, some gusty winds
may occur. In addition, mlmucapes reach 500-1000 j kg acrs this
region Tuesday afternoon. Latest SPC day 2 outlooks has the
region in a marginal risk for severe wind gusts with convection
late Tuesday afternoon evening, but remains highly conditional
on how much destabilization, from any breaks in the clouds that
develop, late in the day. Current forecast highs are in the
upper 50s to upper 60s.

Tuesday night, remnant convection may still be ongoing across
the region through midnight, especially from the capital region
and points N and w. Convective trends should weaken through the
night, ESP S and E of the capital region where a deeper stable
marine layer may reside. So, gradually decreasing chances for
showers storms through the night, with lows mainly in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
The flow pattern will be dictated by a nearly-stationary upper
low over northern ontario. Upper trough axis extending southward
from the low will swing through on Wednesday, resulting in the
likelihood of another batch of diurnally-enhanced showers and
thunderstorms. Potential for severe weather is intriguing with
fast midlevel flow resulting in deep-layer shear values around
50 kt. The limiting factor will again be instability. However,
there does appear to be a window for partial clearing Wednesday
morning (depending on the departure of any Tuesday night
activity) which would boost surface-based instability values.

Midlevel lapse rates are progged to be solid at around 6.5-7
c km as 500 mb temps drop to near -20c. Model surface dewpoints
from the GFS nam in the upper 50s to low 60s may be a bit
overdone, but even with MOS values in the mid-50s combined with
highs in the 70s in the valleys, could still generate AOA 500
j kg mlcape. Combined with deep-layer shear values, this could
be enough for organized convection. Low wet bulb zero heights
around 7500 feet suggest hail will be a threat with any
organized convection, along with gusty winds. Given uncertainty
with instability, SPC day 3 marginal risk looks good for now.

Wednesday night into Thursday, midlevel flow will become more
northwesterly in the wake of the trough passage as the ontario
upper low elongates in a west-east fashion. Subsidence spreading
across the area looks to finally result in a dry day Thursday,
although somewhat cooler than normal with 850 mb temps dropping
to around 3c. Clouds may increase somewhat late Thursday night
ahead of the next system.

Long term Friday through Sunday
Coming soon.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Rain will continue this afternoon across the TAF sites although
it will decrease in intensity and becoming more intermittent
later this afternoon. ExpectVFR conditions mixed with MVFR,
mainly for cigs, but also occasionally for vsbys through this
afternoon as the steadier rain moves through.

Later in the day, coverage of showers will become more
scattered but with continuedVFR MVFR conditions.

Vfr MVFR CIGS are expected to continue into this evening, and
may lower to ifr levels later tonight, ESP at kpsf. On Tuesday
MVFR conditions are expected with showers and a chance of
thunderstorms especially during the afternoon.

Winds will be southeast around 5-10 kts through tonight with
south winds at 10-15 kts on Tuesday.


Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: slight chance of shra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Friday night: low operational impact. Isolated shra.

Saturday: low operational impact. Isolated shra.

Fire weather
A series of upper level disturbances will continue to impact the
region, with showers and thunderstorms likely Tuesday and
Wednesday. Rainfall is not in the forecast for Thursday, but
temperatures will be a bit cooler than normal with rh values
bottoming out mainly in the 40s. Westerly winds gusting to near
20 mph may help to dry things out somewhat.

Steady rainfall continues to exit east, with reports and radar
estimates suggesting 0.25" to up to 1.00" has fallen, with
heaviest amounts over herkimer county. Additional periods of
showers and thunderstorms are likely late tonight into Tuesday.

Rainfall totals are generally expected to remain at a half inch
or below, but locally a half inch to an inch is possible over
the mohawk valley and western adirondacks. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely yet again on Wednesday, with an
additional 0.25-0.75" expected. Widespread flooding is not
expected, although some minor urban, small stream, and poor
drainage flooding cannot be ruled out especially if storms
train over the same area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

The ASOS at the pittsfield municipal airport, ma continues to
experience outages with hourly metars occasionally or
continuously missing. This will persist until communications are
fully restored.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl thompson
near term... Kl 11
short term... Thompson
long term... Speciale
aviation... Kl 11 jpv
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Thompson
equipment... Aly staff

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 54 mi97 min 59°F 1016 hPa56°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA13 mi75 minESE 1010.00 miLight Rain57°F51°F81%1015.9 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT16 mi73 minSE 510.00 miLight Rain57°F52°F83%1015.6 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY21 mi76 minVar 610.00 miOvercast58°F53°F84%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----------------------------------E7E9
1 day agoCalm3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7SE7SE7--------
2 days ago5SW5SW6W44SW5W4W9SW5SW6W5W5SW53W53443CalmNW4343

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 02:52 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM EDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:36 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Click for Map
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:26 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.