Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 2:30 AM   Moonset 12:43 PM

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LEZ041 Expires:202405021515;;478316 Fzus51 Kbuf 020805 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 405 am edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-021515- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 405 am edt Thu may 2 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 021854 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 254 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through much of Friday as high pressure builds across the western and northcentral NY through the evening, before slowly sliding east into New England tonight. A warm front will cross the region later tonight into the first half of Friday bringing a surge of warmer air into the area boosting high temperatures well above average to end the work week. A couple of slow moving cold fronts will then cross the area Friday night through Sunday bringing a couple more rounds of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure returns with mainly dry weather for the start of the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ridging will build in across western and central NY through this evening providing plenty of sunshine for the bulk of the region, however some extra low level clouds are found toward the North Country and Saint Lawrence Valley as a weak shortwave dives southeast across far northeastern NY and New England, but should remain just far enough to our northeast to keep areas toward the North Country dry. Expect highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s south of Lake Ontario, with low 70s near the NY/PA line...and upper 50s to low 60s east of Lake Ontario. Still a bit above average for early May across areas south of Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure slides east of the area, while upper level ridge crests overhead Thursday night. These features will keep our weather dry with overnight lows mainly ranging through the 40s, with low 50s possible along the Lake Erie shore northwest of the Chautauqua Ridge/Boston Hills owed to a weak southeasterly flow developing on the back side of the high.

On Friday, surface high pressure settles toward the New England coast, while upper level ridge axis slowly crosses the area.
Increasing low level southerly return flow will help push a surface warm front northeastward across the region through the first half of Friday. This will allow a surge of warmer to spread across the region boosting highs into the mid and upper 70s for much of the region, with some lower and even a few mid 80s across far western NY and the traditional warmest spots in the Genesee Valley. Areas downwind of the Lakes will be cooler.

High pressure will keep much of Friday dry, however as the upper level ridge axis drifts east across eastern NY, the door will open to a southwesterly flow of deeper moisture that will advect in across at least far western NY by late in the day. A cold front slowly approaching from the west will eventually interact with this increasing moisture, and in combination with daytime heating may produce a few scattered showers and storms as early as late Friday afternoon across far western NY. Best focus would be along the lake breeze boundary that will be found just inland of Lake Erie.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Friday night through Saturday night unsettled weather will return to the region. The mid level trough upstream will drift east into the eastern Great Lakes and then stall as the downstream pattern stagnates in response to a closed low over the North Atlantic to the east of New England. A plume of deep moisture will become situated across the eastern Great Lakes, with numerous convectively augmented vorticity maxima drifting through the mean southwest flow across the region.

The combination of moisture and forcing will bring occasional rounds of showers Friday night across Western NY, and then the entire region Saturday through Saturday night. The best chance of thunder will be on the front side of the system late Friday afternoon and Friday night when instability is greatest. Cooler temperatures will then restrict the thunder potential Saturday through Saturday night, although there may still be a slight chance of a few spotty thunderstorms if there are enough breaks in the rain and overcast.
The clouds and showers will keep highs in the mid 60s for lower elevations and around 60 for higher terrain Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sunday, the mid level trough axis stalled over the eastern Great Lakes since Friday night will start to make some eastward progress, and also weaken with time. Lingering weak forcing and moisture will still support a few rounds of showers, with the greatest coverage likely to be east of the Genesee Valley.

Surface high pressure and a bubble of drier air will then build into the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday, with a return to mainly dry weather. Model guidance begins to diverge with the timing of the next system by Tuesday, with the GFS faster in the return of moisture and forcing while the ECMWF/GEM are slower. Given the slower trend of the ECMWF/GEM, kept POPs on the lower end of the chance range.

Rain chances will increase Tuesday night through Wednesday as low pressure moves into the upper Midwest, with a downstream warm front moving northeast across the Great Lakes region. Enough instability may return to support at least a slight chance of thunder by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will continue to run above average through the period, with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday giving way to 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions and generally light breezes expected for the remainder of the day, with a few west to northwest gusts up to 15-20 knots across the terminals before winds relax as high pressure builds over western and northcentral NY through this evening.

Other than some thickening mid and upper level decks later Friday morning into the afternoon, high pressure remains in control tonight through much of Friday with widespread VFR conditions and mainly light winds expected to continue through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across western NY late in the day.

Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.

Sunday...Morning showers, then a chance of afternoon showers, otherwise mainly VFR.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected through the end of the work week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Friday through Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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