Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Angola on the Lake, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:38PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 11:19 PM EDT (03:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 7:02AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:201905220315;;239953 Fzus51 Kbuf 212033 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 433 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-220315- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 433 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Angola on the Lake, NY
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location: 42.69, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 220221
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1021 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure building eastward from the upper great lakes will
provide our region with fair weather and cooler than normal
temperatures through the night. The high will then slide off to
our east on Wednesday, allowing for increasing clouds along
with temperatures climbing back to more normal levels for late
may. More unsettled weather will then return Wednesday night
through Thursday night as low pressure tracks eastward across
ontario and quebec.

Near term through Wednesday
High pressure centered over the upper great lakes will shift
eastward into central new york overnight. High cirrus will
continue to attempt to make its way into wny, however dry air
off the deck combined with subsidence will make inroads into the
area incredibly difficult. With respect to temperatures... The
combination of our cool airmass... Slackening winds... And
limited cloud cover will allow for below normal lows
tonight... With readings ranging from the upper 30s across the
north country and interior portions of the southern tier to the
lower to mid 40s elsewhere.

On Wednesday the high will slide further east and into new england...

allowing weakening low pressure over the northern plains states to
push its attendant warm front over the ohio valley toward our region.

Continued warm air advection out ahead of this feature will lead
to a general west-to-east increase in mid and high cloud cover through
the day... With enough isentropic ascent developing by mid to late
afternoon to perhaps support a few sprinkles or light showers across
far southwestern new york. Aside from these the day will be mainly
dry... With the overall warm air advection regime allowing highs
to climb back to near normal levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Wednesday night through Saturday night
The axis of a high amplitude ridge will move east of the region
Wednesday night... While a broad surface low will track across the
upper great lakes. This will establish a southerly flow over our
forecast area with a strengthening 35-40kt low level jet helping to
push a warm front through the region. The resulting isentropic lift
will support scattered shower activity... While elevated CAPE values
of 100-200 j kg will allow for a thunderstorm or two. Will add the
latter to the forecast with this package. Otherwise... It will be a
relatively mild night... Especially when compared to recent nights.

In fact... We should experience a non-diurnal temp trend with mins in
the 50s occurring near before midnight.

Thursday will become unsettled across the region... As a strong
shortwave and attendant sfc low tracking east from the upper great
lakes will push a pair of frontal boundaries through our forecast
area. The first will be a pre frontal trough that will make its way
through during the midday hours. While SBCAPE values are only
forecast to range from 500-1000 j kg... A 45 to 50kt low level jet
will offer up plenty of shear to accompany the expected convection.

This will introduce the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm
activity... Especially ahead of a cold front that will bear down on
the region during the late afternoon. The high CAPE low shear
environment will include 0-6km bulk shear values that average close
to 40kts. This has prompted SPC to include all of western and north
central new york within a slight risk area for severe weather... With
the primary threat being damaging winds and large hail. While this
threat has been mentioned in the hwo product... Have now placed the
potential for gusty winds within the actual forecast grids.

Otherwise... Our region will be within a warm sector with h85 temps
hovering within a couple degrees of 13c. This will support a rather
warm day that will be accompanied by dew points in the 60s (wrn
counties)... Making it feel humid as well.

The aforementioned cold front will make its way across our forecast
area early Thursday evening. By this time though... The bulk of the
main convection ahead of the front will be east of the region... But
there will still be a few showers and storms around until midnight
or so. The rapidly ending convection will give way to partial
clearing and more comfortable conditions.

An amplifying mid level ridge will then build across the great lakes
region on Friday... While the accompanying surface high will cross
our forecast area. This will allow for a pleasant... Albeit it
notably cooler... Day across our region with partly sunny skies and
temperatures mainly in the 60s.

As the ridge passes our region Friday night... Strong warm advection
will set up over the lower great lakes. The deepest lift associated
with the resulting forcing should be to our north and west... But
there should still be the potential for some showers... Especially
for sites near lake ontario.

The start to the weekend should then prove to be unsettled... As
another pre-frontal trough is forecast to cross our region. Saturday
should be similar to Thursday... As warm and increasingly humid air
will support some showers and thunderstorms with a 45kt low level
jet and the pre frontal trough providing the synoptic forcing. Will
thus maintain likely pops.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Large scale pattern will feature a rex block over the western u.S.

With generally zonal flow across the eastern 2 3rds of the country
to start this period. While weak surface ridging will likely reside
across the lower lakes Sunday with dry conditions, shortwave energy
originating from the elongated mid-level low over the hudson bay
will begin to drop southeast towards the region. This feature will
send a cold front towards and across the lower lakes on Monday which
will likely lead to increasing chances for showers. With the passage
of the cold front transitory ridging will slide across the eastern
great lakes Monday night. Tuesday and beyond typical model
uncertainty creeps in regarding another northern stream system
dropping southeast and a low pressure system lifting out of the
midwest. Have kept slight chance pop's although most of the time
will likely be dry over the area on Tuesday.

Temperatures will average near to a little above normal with
highs in the 70s for much of the region.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure will build across the region through the taf
period. This will result inVFR conditions and generally light
wind. Winds will gradually shift from the ese on Wednesday as
the high builds eastward with return flow around the southern
periphery of it.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms... A few of which could produce gusty winds.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure building eastward from the upper great lakes to new york
state will bring steadily diminishing winds and waves through tonight.

On Wednesday the high will slide out across new england... With an
increasing return flow between this system and low pressure over the
northern plains leading to the development of some moderate easterlies
on lake ontario... Though the strongest winds and greatest wave action
should remain over the open waters of the lake.

The aforementioned low will then track from the upper great lakes to
quebec while pushing its warm front across the lower great lakes
Wednesday night and Thursday... With a period of moderately brisk west-
southwesterlies developing out ahead of its trailing cold front during
Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Fries jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Ar
aviation... Fries jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 0 mi38 min 48°F 1022.1 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 13 mi80 min S 3.9 G 3.9 44°F 44°F1 ft1022.5 hPa (+0.9)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 16 mi32 min S 4.1 G 5.1 55°F1022.5 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 21 mi20 min E 2.9 G 4.1 50°F 1022.8 hPa (+0.7)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi38 min 53°F 1022.3 hPa
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 46 mi80 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 49°F1 ft1021.9 hPa (+1.1)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 48 mi20 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 53°F 1023 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY18 mi87 minN 010.00 mi47°F39°F77%1022.7 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY24 mi86 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F41°F71%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W6W5W6W4W3SW6SW5SW6W8W6W10SW7W7W8W7W9W8W8W10W6W5SW3Calm
1 day agoS9S12
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2 days agoS11S10S15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.