Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmwood Park, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:31PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 11:30 PM CST (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 10:35PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cst Tue Nov 13 2018
Rest of tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest early in the afternoon, then backing south late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight veering southwest early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201811141100;;274141 FZUS53 KMKX 140506 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-141100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmwood Park, WI
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location: 42.7, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 140502
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1102 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018

Update
There is some wind just above the decoupled boundary layer and
this will help to keep some mixing going through the night.

Although temps are quite cold tonight under clear skies, without
that wind, it's likely it would be even colder. The forecast is on
track.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period. Look for the
light northwest to west winds to back to the south on Wednesday.

Prev discussion (issued 847 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018)
update...

the warm advection mid level clouds well upstream over western mn
look like they will remain north and west of the area through
tonight, and likely even on Wednesday. So, clear and cold is the
storyline for tonight. The forecast is in good shape.

Marine...

look for diminishing northwest winds tonight as high pressure
gradually builds into the area. The winds will back to the
southwest then south on Wednesday, increasing in speed across the
northern half of the lake. The increasing trend will continue
Wednesday night into Thursday across all of lake michigan as a
low pressure trough approaches from the northwest, eventually
skirting across southern canada and the northern great lakes.

Winds may gust to gale force levels at times Wednesday night into
early Thursday. Look for the winds to veer back to the west then
northwest later Thursday night into Friday as the trough pushes
east of lake michigan.

Prev discussion... (issued 454 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018)
update...

the recently issued discussion for the short term is solid, so no
changes to the forecast at this time. Main challenge will be
watching temp trends under radiational conditions.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period. Look for light
west winds to back to the southwest Wednesday morning and south by
Wednesday afternoon.

Prev discussion... (issued 258 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018)
short term...

tonight and Wednesday - confidence... Medium to high.

The coldest night of the season lies ahead. Clear skies this
evening along with diminishing surface winds to around 6 knots or
less will allow temperatures to fall rapidly through the 20s and
teens into the 10 to 15 degree range. 925h temps of -10 to -13c
under these conditions would result in overnight lows dipping into
the single digits across the entire area. However strong upstream
warm air advection over the northern plains and southern canada is
causing an increasing area of mid-high clouds over northern mn.

These clouds will likely carry into parts of southern wi later
tonight. In addition, winds will remain mixy tonight just above
shallow inversion. Hence bumped up temperatures slightly, but still
went below most guidance, with overnight lows dipping into the 8 to
15. Clouds may stick around for a time on Wednesday, however
stronger warm air advection remains to the north of area. With
subsidence remaining over southern wi, leaning toward clouds
thinning and becoming sct-bkn across southern wi. Never the less,
due to lower confidence on Wednesday cloud cover, was not too
optimistic with high temperatures, and kept maxs in the low to mid
30s.

Long term...

Wednesday night through Thursday night... Forecast confidence is
high:
high pressure will depart Wednesday night into Thursday as a
trough of low pressure approaches. The trough will move through
Thursday night, dragging a weak cold front through southern
wisconsin. Temperatures will be back around normal Thursday under
plenty of sunshine and southerly winds.

Friday and Saturday... Forecast confidence is low to medium:
a shortwave is expected to move through Friday night into early
Saturday, bringing a chance for snow to the forecast area. Models
continue to flop around with this one... Being dry one run... Then
the wettest the next, etc. Obviously still a few details to be
worked out with this one. The overall trend with this system has
been slower... Meaning a better chance for snow vs rain as the
precip would fall more during the later evening and overnight
hours. Snow amounts are still all over the place among models,
ranging from dry to up to 3 inches.

Near normal temps Friday will cool to around 10 degrees below
normal Saturday behind the departing system.

Sunday and through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium:
model solutions have diverged a bit for early next week compared
to the solutions 24 hours ago. Overall, it looks dry sun-tue,
though the model timing placement of high pressure and a passing
trough are in fairly poor agreement. The ECMWF does bring a little
snow to the north Monday night, but otherwise this period looks
free of precip.

Temps around 10 degrees below normal Sunday are expected to
recover to near normal by Tuesday.

Aviation (21z tafs)...

vfr conditions expected for this forecast period. Some increase
in mid-high level clouds is expected later tonight and Wednesday
morning due to strengthening upstream warm air advection. Light
and variable winds tonight will turn to the south on Wednesday.

Marine...

northwest winds will continue to slowly subside tonight as high
pressure ridge approaches from the west. Gusty winds will linger
over the northern open waters but will slowly diminish to 10 to 20
knots. This ridge will pass across lake michigan Wednesday morning,
resulting in lighter west winds turning to the south during the day.

Southern lake michigan will remain in a col between low pressure
passing across southern canada, and a second low pressure system
moving into the tn and ohio valleys. Mainly south winds can be
expected for wed-thu with breezy south winds, expected to remain
below small craft advisory levels over the near shore waters. A
tighter pressure gradient will be over the northern part of lake
michigan beginning Wednesday night and continuing into Friday.

Southwest wind gusts will approach gale levels at times during this
period before turning to the west on Friday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... mbk
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi30 min WNW 5.1 G 7 21°F 1032.2 hPa (+1.4)
45187 14 mi50 min 26°F 44°F2 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 23 mi50 min WNW 6 G 7 23°F
45186 23 mi30 min NNW 5.8 25°F 44°F1 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 24 mi20 min NW 6 G 7 21°F
45013 28 mi83 min NW 12 G 14 31°F 45°F2 ft1031.3 hPa
45174 40 mi20 min WNW 12 G 16 27°F 48°F2 ft15°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 41 mi40 min NW 14 G 19 28°F 46°F3 ft1032.5 hPa (+1.4)15°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi50 min WNW 4.1 G 8 19°F 1032.8 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI4 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair19°F10°F68%1033.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi37 minWNW 410.00 miFair19°F12°F74%1033.4 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi38 minW 410.00 miFair21°F7°F54%1033.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL20 mi35 minWNW 310.00 miFair18°F10°F71%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW12
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NW7W6NW5CalmCalmCalmW3W3Calm
1 day agoNW7NW7W7NW6NW6N8NW7NW4NW4NW11
G19
NW9NW10NW8NW9NW7NW5NW8NW8NW10NW10NW7
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NW7NW7NW9
2 days agoS6S8S6S8S9SW9S8S8SW9SW9SW12W8
G17
SW8SW13
G21
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W8SW7SW5SW6SW6SW5SW4SW4W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.