Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmwood Park, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:26PM Sunday February 17, 2019 8:49 PM CST (02:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Pm Cst Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight backing north early in the morning. Snow through around midnight, then snow likely after midnight. Freezing spray early in the morning. Waves nearly calm.
Monday..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Chance of snow in the morning, then slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves nearly calm.
Monday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots backing northwest early in the morning. Freezing spray after midnight. Waves nearly calm.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west late in the morning, then backing southeast early in the afternoon rising to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves nearly calm. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201902180500;;102393 FZUS53 KMKX 180105 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-180500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmwood Park, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.7, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 180231 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
831 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Update
Synoptic lift has shifted out of the area with light showers
lingering (away from the lake) with the weakening upper low.

Lake effect bands are apparent on radar into sheboygan and northern
milwaukee ozaukee counties. Thinking these areas, or others in
any heavier, stationary bands could see one half inch per hour rates
for several hours for totals of 3 to 5 inches. Other areas along
the lakeshore impacted by the weaker and less organized bands
could see a another 1 to 2 inches.

Delta t values are 15 and should increase another couple of degrees
early Monday. As 850mb temps cool to -15c, low level lapse rates
steepen and there is saturation in a deep dendrite growth zone
extending from 900 to 650mb, which favors a few inches of lake
effect snow in the more dominate bands. So several inches are
possible since the winds won't change much until around 4 am.

After this time winds over the lake shift to the north which will
push any remaining showers offshore.

Thinking the advisory is ok for now to handle this.

Marine
Gusty northeast winds will become north early Monday. Wind gusts
will diminish Monday afternoon. Waves will reach 4 to 6 feet in
ice free areas. The small craft advisory remains in effect through
mid morning Monday.

High pressure will build into the area Monday and Monday night,
remaining over the region on Tuesday. Winds will increase from the
east once again on Wednesday as the next storm system approaches.

A small craft advisory may be needed during this time.

Prev discussion (issued 629 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019)
update...

no changes to the forecast.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

expect ceilings of 1500-2000 tonight, occasionally lower in the more
moderate to heavier snow bands in eastern wisconsin. Mainly light
snow will dominate in madison, winding down after midnight. Lake
effect snow will likely impact the lakeshore areas and
possibly ues through about 12z. Winds will shift to the north Monday
morning which will push the lake effect offshore.

Cloud bases will likely become broken around 3000ft later Monday.

Prev discussion... (issued 228 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019)
short term...

rest of this afternoon and tonight... Forecast confidence is
high...

generally light to moderate snow continues across the area this
afternoon. There have been a few bands of heavier snow, which have
reduced visibilities to a half mile or less at times.

Large scale lift will begin to wane late this afternoon into this
evening, as the 850 mb and 700 mb lows rotate through the area.

Light snow showers will likely persist until after midnight, but
the intensity should decrease with time. The exception will be
near the lakeshore, where increasingly favorable winds and falling
850 mb temps will result in lake effect snow taking shape. We will
likely see multiple bands of lake effect snow showers develop this
evening, which should then organize into a single band tonight as
convergence improves. That band will then skirt the shoreline
through the night as winds become increasingly northerly with
time.

We look to be on track for a storm total of 3-6 inches of snow
across the advisory area, with local maxima of 5-6 inches west of
madison and along the lake, and 3-5 in between.

No changes are planned to the area or timing of the winter weather
advisory. For the lakeshore counties, the vast majority of the
snow should be done by 6 am, though a few light snow showers may
linger into the mid morning hours on Monday. Given that any
appreciable accumulation should be over by 6 am, that still looks
like a good end time for the winter weather advisory for this area.

Will continue with a 3 am expiration for the counties to the
west, though at least a few tiers may be able to be expired early.

Monday and Monday night... Forecast confidence high...

high pressure will build into the area Monday into Monday night.

No precipitation is expected, with highs on Monday ranging from
the mid 20s south to around 20 north, and lows Monday night in the
low single digits above zero.

Long term...

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is high:
high pressure will build overhead on Tuesday, with plenty of
sunshine expected. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below
normal.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium to
high:
low pressure passing through the region will bring another shot of
accumulating snow to southern wisconsin Tuesday night and
Wednesday. There are still moderate differences among models with
the track and strength of the low as well as how much drier air
aloft will move in from the south. Models overall have mainly
snow... Though there has been an increasing trend in a loss of ice
aloft across roughly the southeast half of the forecast area on
Wednesday. Thus kept a mention of a mix with freezing rain going.

A blend of model solutions is still giving roughly 3-5 inches of
snow for this period (higher NW and lower se)... Though still
plenty of time for the finer details to change.

Thursday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium to low:
high pressure is expected to bring dry weather and near normal
temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

Another low will take aim at the region next weekend. Models are
still not in very good agreement with this system, with a full
range of solutions still in play. There overall picture points to
a decent shot at snow across at least the NW half of the forecast
area, with maybe some rain mixing in southeast. A lot of time for
the details of this one to change. Hopefully the picture will
clear up a bit over the next day or two.

Aviation(21z TAF update)...

ifr will continue today across the area, with occasional drops to
lifr in heavier snow bands. Snow will slowly diminish in intensity
at madison by evening, but will continue further east as a lake
effect band forms. This lake effect will likely impact milwaukee
and kenosha, and may just skirt the waukesha area. Widespread ifr
is expected, with occasional drops to lifr.

Winds will be easterly this afternoon, becoming more northeasterly
with time. Winds then become northerly toward Monday morning.

Marine...

gusty east winds will become northeasterly this evening, and then
transition to northerly late tonight. Waves will reach 4-6 feet in
the ice free portions of the nearshore, and a small craft advisory
continues though mid morning on Monday.

High pressure will build into the area Monday and Monday night,
remaining over the region on Tuesday. Winds will increase from the
east once again on Wednesday as the next storm system approaches.

A small craft advisory may be needed during this time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Monday for wiz052-059-060-
065-066-071-072.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am cst Monday for wiz056-062>064-
067>070.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Monday for lmz643>646.

Update... Marquardt
tonight Monday and aviation marine... Boxell
Monday night through Sunday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi50 min ENE 14 G 16 27°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 23 mi70 min ENE 8.9 G 11 26°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 24 mi120 min NE 17 G 19 27°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi70 min NNW 7 G 13 22°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last
24hr
NE13
G17
E12
G16
E11
G18
E14
G18
E8
G13
E11
E10
G13
E10
G13
E8
G13
E12
G15
E11
G15
E10
G14
E14
E13
E11
G14
NE9
G13
NE11
G14
NE8
G11
NE8
G11
NE8
G11
NE8
G11
NE9
G13
NE10
E5
G8
1 day
ago
NW6
G9
W4
G7
W5
G8
W4
G7
W5
G9
W5
G8
W5
G8
W3
G7
NW4
W3
W3
NW2
NW5
G10
NW8
G11
N5
G8
NE8
G11
NE8
G12
NE11
G16
NE10
G15
NE11
G16
NE5
G10
NE8
G11
NE8
G11
NE10
G14
2 days
ago
W6
G11
W6
G13
W10
G18
W10
G19
W10
G17
W9
G16
SW12
G20
W7
G18
W9
G13
W7
G15
W7
G14
W8
G14
SW8
G13
SW9
G15
SW9
G16
W7
G14
W10
G16
W7
G11
SW5
G8
W5
G9
W4
G8
W3
NW5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI4 mi57 minENE 87.00 miLight Snow26°F21°F81%1014.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi57 minNE 94.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F24°F89%1013.8 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi58 minENE 111.75 miLight Snow Blowing Snow27°F21°F81%1014.3 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL20 mi55 minNE 71.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F21°F84%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrE10E9
G17
E9E10E14E9E10E10E13E15E12E12E10E13E16E14
G19
E12NE15NE14NE12NE10NE12E11NE8
1 day agoNW5NW6NW7NW5NW6NW6NW6W7W6W7NW5NW5NW6N6N6N6NE11N14
G19
NE11NE9NE8E9E7E11
2 days agoW7W13
G25
NW13
G23
NW14
G23
W15
G28
W17
G28
W13
G26
W11
G22
W13
G25
W16
G24
W15
G29
W17
G28
W11
G22
W11
G22
W17
G26
W15
G24
W14
G22
W15
G20
W11
G22
W11
G18
NW5NW5NW7NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.