Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 7:57 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 111346 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 946 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level low will approach from the west today with isolated to scattered rain showers developing, especially for areas west of the Hudson River. These showers will then spread eastward tonight into Sunday. Cool conditions are expected on Mother's Day but warmer weather returns to start out the new work week along with continued rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPDATE
As of 945 AM EDT, an upper-level trough continues to depart the region to the east early this morning as some weak ridging builds in for the midday hours. This will be followed by a stronger negatively tilted upper-level low approaching from the Great Lakes. Any low stratus and fog has lifted across the region and has resulted in variable cloud cover ranging from mostly sunny across portions of the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern CT to mostly cloudy from around the Capital District and points north and west including southern Vermont. A trend toward a mostly cloudy sky is expected for most areas through the afternoon.

While most areas are starting out dry, some very weak instability-driven showers are ongoing across portions of the western Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks. Some slight decrease in these showers are possible over the next few hours, but then activity will increase in coverage this afternoon as the next upper-level low approaches. Weak instability will likely develop with SBCAPE values between 100-300 J/kg. This, combined with forcing from the approaching upper low will result in isolated to scattered rain showers. Have updated the wx grids to coverage wording as we do expect showers to develop but not everywhere may see one. The 12z KALY sounding shows a pronounced inversion around 600 hPa which is likely the maximum level/height that these showers can grow in the vertical. With the expected shallow nature of these showers, thunder is unlikely.

Highs today will run a few degrees below normal ranging from the 50s across the higher elevations to the lower to mid-60s in the valleys.

Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread eastward through tonight as the core of the upper low moves overhead by Sunday morning. Overnight temperatures again fall to overnight lows in the upper 30s in high terrain and low to mid 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The upper low will pass overhead and continue eastward over New England on Mother's Day. Resulting showers may linger into the morning on the western flank of the circulation, however coverage will decrease into the afternoon as the feature continues eastward over the Gulf of Maine. A brief dry break will then last through Sunday night as heights rise aloft behind the upper low. Temperatures remain cool beneath the upper low, with afternoon highs only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s in high terrain and mid to upper 50s at lower elevations, and overnight lows dipping into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region.

As upper ridging flattens over the region, a warm front will approach from the west on Monday, bringing increasing chances for rain showers into the afternoon. Temperatures will moderate as mid-level flow shifts out of the southwest behind the boundary, with temperatures reaching afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s in high terrain and low to mid 60s at lower elevations. Increased cloud cover overnight will aid in keeping temperatures mild, as overnight lows only fall to the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
We start the long term off with a weak surface low tracking through Quebec near the Hudson Bay and its attendant cold front approaches the Northeast. Southerly flow ahead of the boundary ushers in a warmer air mass allowing temperatures on Tuesday to warm towards 70 which is right around the climatological norm. Meanwhile, in the Ohio Valley we will be monitoring an initially open trough. As the trough shifts eastward, southwesterly winds along and ahead of our cold front will strengthen, enhancing the moisture advection/convergence along the boundary. In fact, PWATs rise above 1" making it feel rather humid on Tuesday. The increased moisture convergence plus height falls ahead of the wave will likely result in areas of showers along and ahead of the cold front which is why we maintained widespread likely POPs for Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The increased humidity will also keep a slight chance for thunderstorms. Guidance suggests an inverted trough develops along the boundary given this set-up and with enhanced PWATs, periods of steady rain look possible.

Recent trends indicate that our initially open wave in the Ohio Valley may close off which would prolong precipitation into Wednesday. There are still discrepancies among the guidance if this wave remains open or closes off/slows down but with the trough in the left exit region of a jet streak, we decided to account for recent pessimistic trends and linger chance POPs through the day Wednesday. In fact, the trough may even linger into Thursday if it closes off based on some latest trends but we maintained a dry forecast until there is more of a consensus.

Once the trough/closed low finally exits, there should be a brief dry respite as high pressure builds in behind it with a warm air mass continuing overhead. This should support near to even warmer than normal temperatures once high pressure takes control. However, the dry break is short-lived as our next boundary looks to arrive for the weekend.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR cigs and vis at POU will diminish by 13 UTC with VFR conditions at all other sites. Latest radar mosaic shows a few showers still around ALB so we maintained VCSH through this morning. Clouds this morning should break for some sun this morning (especially at POU)
before clouds return midday into the afternoon once we reach our convective temperatures. This should result in ceilings redeveloping at 17 to 18 UTC at 5-7kft. A few showers may be in the vicinity of GFL and ALB through the day but not enough confidence of a shower passing directly over the terminal to include in the latest TAF.

Showers become more numerous by or shortly after 00 UTC as an upper level disturbance from the Midwest slides from west to east.
Ceilings lower by or shortly after 00 UTC and result in MVFR levels.
GFL will likely be the first to drop followed by ALB, PSF and POU shortly after 06 UTC as showers become more widespread.

Southeasterly winds near or under 5kts this morning become a bit stronger by or shortly after 21 UTC as the sfc pressure gradient tightens resulting in sustained winds ranging 6 - 9kts with gusts up to 12kts or so. These winds continue through the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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