Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 3:42 AM   Moonset 3:42 PM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 041900 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 300 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers,maybe some thunder this evening, quiet Sunday

- Dry Monday, then chances for showers/storms

DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

- A few showers,maybe some thunder this evening, quiet Sunday

Showers/thunderstorms will try to get their act together this afternoon in Illinois and Wisconsin will move across Lake Michigan and western Indiana early this evening along with a weak cold front.
Models are indicating this line will struggle to remain organized as it moves east and considering decreasing elevated instability overnight - it is looking more like a broken weakening line of showers/thunderstorms that may result in quite a bit of the area seeing no rain at all. If any storms do hold together, not out of the question that some small hail will be possible though this doesnt look that likely at this time.

Any lingering light showers should be off to the east by daybreak Sunday. High pressure begins to build in Sunday with stubborn cloud cover lingering through much of the day. This could result in cooler temperatures than Saturday but dry weather should result regardless.

- Dry Monday, then chances for showers/storms

Transient high pressure over Lower MI Monday will produce sunny skies and mild temperatures with highs around 60. An upper low over the northern Plains will influence our wx the rest of the week as pieces of energy will rotate through the flow and move across the region.

Clouds will increase Monday night with storms likely Tuesday when a warm front lifts north late in the day. Moderately strong dynamics look to be develop late Tuesday as a LLJ moves over the region and a mid level speed max aims at Lower MI from the southwest. H85-h5 lapse rates also climb to around 7c/km during this time frame. Given the warm frontal interaction, strong shear and decent helicity, all forms of severe wx look to be possible from late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening; SPC has highlighted the southwest cwa for a severe wx risk.

Once the warm front moves through late Tuesday night there may be a lull in precipitation until the next wave over the central Plains moves toward the region late Wednesday through Thursday night. More showers/storms are expected then. The upper low isn't progd to move through the state until late Saturday, so unsettle conditions will continue through the first half of the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Pesky MVFR cigs continue across some of the terminals. Latest visible imagery shows some decrease in the cu field which should lead to a decrease in MVFR cigs this afternoon.

An approaching cold front will fire off a line of showers/storms over IL late this afternoon which will then move east. However, it's going to encounter more atmospheric stability which will weaken the line. We included a VCSH comment in the TAFs and any precipitation that does develop should be in weakening mode as it moves through.

Models indicate more IFR/LIFR tonight along the frontal boundary.
Once the front clears the region Sunday morning, cigs will lift.

MARINE
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Winds this evening still expected to nudge up this evening as a cold front works across Lake Michigan. A few showers and some thunder possible but showers/storms should be weakening as they approach the shoreline. Behind the front north/northwest flow should increase a little but at this time looks like it should peak out 15-20kts and will continue to hold off on an advisory.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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