Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lansing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:22PM Monday June 26, 2017 11:44 PM EDT (03:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:00AMMoonset 10:32PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-170623t0115z/ 844 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 915 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... At 844 pm edt...a strong Thunderstorm was located near the ambassador bridge...moving northeast at 30 knots. Hazard...wind gusts to 40 knots. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Grosse pointe around 855 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 910 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...st clair flats old channel light and mt clemens harbor of refuge around 915 pm edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4255 8259 4256 8263 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4232 8312 4238 8295 4245 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8263 4261 8254 4262 8260 4261 8258 4260 8255 4261 8253 time...mot...loc 0044z 241deg 29kt 4238 8306 hail...0.00in wind...40kts
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201706230115;;663543 FZUS73 KDTX 230044 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 844 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 LCZ423-460-230115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lansing, MI
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location: 42.71, -84.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 270303
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1103 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
latest update...

update marine

Synopsis
Issued at 322 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
another afternoon and evening of spotty showers and isolated storms
can be expected tonight as cool canadian air continues to filter
across the area. Conditions will dry out overnight as the system
begins to pull out. A stray shower will be possible across eastern
areas Tuesday afternoon, but temperatures will warm a few degrees
compared to today.

An occasionally active weather pattern is looking more likely
beginning late Wednesday, and lasting at times through early next
week. Multiple waves of low pressure will move east through the
region at times. These waves will bring the threat of showers and
storms with dry periods in between.

Update
Issued at 1103 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
i adjusted the probability of precipitation for the evening to
show the showers will be mostly north of big rapids. The showers
will weaken as they move east of big rapids.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 322 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
one more round of spotty showers is now beginning to rotate into the
cwfa this afternoon from the NW as one more major wave moves through
the region. The shower chances will linger into the early overnight
period before the wave rotates out. A rumble of thunder will remain
possible as the cold pool aloft interacts with the diurnal heating
this afternoon.

Tuesday should end up mainly dry across the area, however a slight
chance of a rain shower was inserted into the forecast for the
eastern counties. The models have trended toward the cyclonic flow
aloft lingering a little longer. The eastern counties will be on the
wrn periphery of the upper low Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with the core of the coolest
air moving east of the area.

We will see a break in the weather then from Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning. Rain chances will then increase Wednesday
afternoon and especially Wednesday evening. There is a short wave
that is currently coming onshore off of the pacific to the ca or
coast. This short wave will move along the nearly zonal flow that
will take place once the current low moves out. A 60 knot low level
jet is expected to bring a very moist surge to the area. This will
help develop showers storms over the area Wed afternoon evening.

Right now, the heavier pcpn looks to occur across the northern
portion of the area given the forecast track of the wave.

Heavy rain is a concern given the heavy rain that has fallen across
portions of central michigan over the last week. There is a lot of
wind energy available also that could produce damaging winds. We
will continue to monitor the situation.

Long term (Thursday through Monday)
issued at 322 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
a low pressure system is expected to pass over upper michigan lake
superior Thursday and drape a front across the region, bringing
showers and thunderstorms to lower michigan Thursday into Friday.

Instability, moisture, and lift may all be present in sufficient
quantities to make severe weather possible.

Another low pressure system will then move from southwest to
northeast across lower michigan Friday and Friday night, accompanied
by more rain and thunderstorms. If the focus of the heavy rain ends
up stretching across the area, we could see areal and river flooding
by the end of the week.

Temperatures will be around normal through the week. Normal highs
are around 80 degrees and normal lows are in the upper 50s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 727 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
expectVFR conditions through Tuesday and for that matter most of
Wednesday at all of our TAF sites.

We have a band of scattered showers moving away from our eastern
taf sites (lan and jxn) as I write this. However this is one more
band of showers (23z) from pln to tvc to grb that will rotate
through our TAF sites in the 03z to 09z time frame. Since the sun
will have set by then I would think most of these showers will
have dissipated, even so here is enough dynamic forcing with the
upper level system that it is possible they would hold together.

Even so the vsby and cig will remainVFR. Once they move through
the sky should clear totally. Tomorrow is the last day under this
weather system so we will have one more day of afternoon CU tcu
and isolated rain showers. This will be more of an issue for the
eastern TAF sited due to the west wind. I put vcsh in the forecast
for those sites for Tuesday afternoon. It should not be as windy
during the day tomorrow as the system will be moving out by then.

So periods ofVFR CIGS tonight into Tuesday with lighter winds
Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 1103 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017
i expunged the probability for waterspouts due to ending showers.

The marine headlines have been extended into the morning hours
due to persisting higher winds and waves in the southern near
shore zones.

Hydrology
Issued at 1119 am edt Mon jun 26 2017
river levels are trying to return to normal across the region... With
the chippewa river at mt. Pleasant and pine river at alma above flood
stage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms... Which will develop as
an upper low moves over the state this afternoon... Are not expected
to produce the areal coverage or intensity of precipitation needed
to slow the falling of the stages. Therefore... Expect river levels
to continue to fall steadily over the next 24 hours.

Another round of potentially heavy rainfall will occur later
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Deep moisture returns to the
region... And bands of heavy rainfall may occur across central
portions of lower michigan. Rivers in isabella and gratiot
counties are especially vulnerable to excessive rainfall... And
significant rises would likely develop on the pine and chippewa
rivers should the heavy rainfall occur in these basins.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 5 am edt Tuesday for miz037-043-
050-056-064-071.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for lmz844>849.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... 63
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Mws
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 88 mi45 min WNW 12 G 17 60°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.6)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 88 mi45 min WNW 15 G 17 60°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 91 mi45 min W 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI5 mi52 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F43°F62%1016.1 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi53 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F45°F70%1016.3 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI16 mi51 minWSW 310.00 miFair52°F46°F80%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4W6SW7SW8W7W7SW6W10
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1 day agoW7SW5SW6SW7SW11W7W7W10W10W13W14
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2 days agoW7W8W7W7W8W9W8W7W9W7W9W7W14
G19
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W14W7W5W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.