Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lansing, MI

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Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:51PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 635 pm edt Thu aug 9 2018 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... At 635 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located over the ambassador bridge, moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Wyandotte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4237 8283 4234 8295 4235 8296 4234 8298 4234 8299 4233 8299 4232 8305 4229 8309 4224 8313 4221 8313 4222 8315 4223 8315 4224 8314 4231 8308 4237 8292 4240 8288 4245 8287 4245 8284 4242 8278
LCZ423 Expires:201808092330;;815406 FZUS73 KDTX 092235 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 635 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018 LCZ423-460-092330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lansing, MI
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location: 42.71, -84.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 181138
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
738 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 333 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
after the morning fog is gone, skies will become partly cloudy but
hazy due to smoke from distant forest fires. A back door cold
front in combination with the lake breeze will create scatted
showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Most area through
will remain rain free through the day. Highs will be in the lower
to mid 80s.

Tonight will be mostly clear with some area of fog toward morning.

Sunday will be partly sunny and warm with highs in the lower to
mid 80s once again. A storm system will move through the area
Monday night into Tuesday bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Strong winds will follow the passage of the
system's cold front Tuesday and will likely result in marine
headlines. The rest of the week will be cooler relative to what we
have had nearly the entire month of august till then. Highs may
actually be in the 70s, even with the Sun out Wednesday.

Short term (today through Monday)
issued at 333 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
i am watching the fog potential for this morning and Sunday
morning plus there is a issue with afternoon convection today.

I contemplated a dense fog advisory but decided against it since
we are expecting the boundary layer wind to increase over the
next few hours as slightly cooler air moves in from the north.

Typically that limits how much fog we get. Sunday morning I do not
expect as much wind in the boundary layer so the threat for dense
fog is greater. The hi-res model visibility forecast show a more
extensive fog issue Sunday morning then this morning. For now i
have area of dense fog in the forecast early this morning and
areas of fog Sunday morning.

As for the convection issue, we have a back door cold front that
stalls over central lower michigan this afternoon. This can be
seen in the 925 mb and 850 mb temperature gradient near and north
of route 10. Also helping the cause for convection is the lake
breeze pushing against east surface winds this afternoon. There
is enough instability (most unstable CAPE will be near 1000j kg
this afternoon over most of lower michigan). All of the hi res
models show the convection too. So I have increased the chance to
near 50% near us-131 and route 10 for this afternoon.

Sunday should be quiet as the air will be drier. Monday should for
the most part be quiet too, as the convection with the next system
should mostly wait until Monday night.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 333 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
a low pressure system will strengthen as it moves northeast across
the great lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the sfc low and cold
front Monday night into Tuesday.

Potential for severe wx remains a concern late Monday into Tuesday
given favorable deep layer shear and ample low level moisture ahead
of the cold front. The severe wx threat will likely be largely
contingent on how much instability develop. Unfavorable frontal
timing could also be another mitigating factor with regard to severe
wx potential.

It will turn breezy and cooler on the back side of the system late
Tuesday which will result in marine impacts to include significant
wave heights building to around 6 to 8 feet. High pressure will then
build in for mid to late next week and bring fair wx with seasonable
temps.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 738 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
currently (1130z) we have widely variable conditions at our taf
sites. Klan has varied from 1 4sm fg to 2 1 2sm over the past 3
hour. Similar variable conditions prevail at jxn, btl, and azo.

There is an extensive and growing area of MVFR ifr ceiling
spreading south from northern lower mi but I believe these low
clouds and any fog will mix out by 15z.

There is the threat of afternoon convection, I put vcsh to cover
this. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

Tonight fog is expected again and this time the fog could be more
extensive as winds in the boundary layer are lighter.

Marine
Issued at 333 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
we will have to watch conditions in the near shore today as we
have a north wind behind the system and that typically means
higher winds and waves. The issue today though is the cold front
stalls near or north of route 10. The bigger issue will be Monday
into Tuesday with that storm moving through the area. Marine
headlines are likely for sure.

Hydrology
Issued at 154 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
rainfall over the past 24 hours... Per mrms with gage correction...

has been more widespread than in recent days... With locations south
of grand rapids showing one tenth of an inch or less. More isolated
coverage of rainfall was indicated over northern sections of central
lower michigan... With some amounts in excess of one inch. The low
amounts to the south and the isolated nature of the heavy rain to
the north have produced little to no impact to area river levels.

Heavy rain of 4 to 6 inches fell across east central wisconsin since
Thursday morning.

Quite a bit of uncertainty as to the expected coverage and location
of rainfall this afternoon and evening. Atmosphere has plenty of
moisture to work with as precipitable water values in excess of 1.5
inches over most of lower michigan. Slow movement of showers and
thunderstorms will also aid in producing increased amounts in areas
that receive rainfall.

Threat for significant impacts to area rivers is highly conditional
over the next 48 hours... Mainly due to the recent dry conditions.

If precipitation can develop over a basin with appreciable areal
coverage and persist long enough for significant runoff to
develop... River stages could show significant rises. Combination of
factors results in a low confidence forecast for river impacts over
the next 48 hours.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Laurens
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Mws
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 88 mi25 min NNE 17 G 19 73°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.4)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 88 mi43 min NW 5.1 G 7 72°F 1016.1 hPa72°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 91 mi25 min Calm G 2.9 74°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI5 mi32 minN 510.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1015.9 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi30 minW 310.00 miFair78°F68°F73%1016.3 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI16 mi30 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F68°F85%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NW5N6N7NW5W7NW4NW4NW4NW3NW4CalmW3W5NW5CalmNW3CalmW3CalmNW3N4W3N5
1 day ago--NE4CalmE6SE5SE5S5SE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3W3CalmW3W3N3N5
2 days agoSW7SW8Calm3S9SW10
G14
SW6S4SW4CalmS6S5S7S6SW3CalmS3E3E3NE4SE4SE4E6E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.