Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lansing, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:06PM Monday May 27, 2019 8:13 AM EDT (12:13 UTC) Moonrise 2:02AMMoonset 1:06PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0005.000000t0000z-190525t2045z/ 419 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4192 8338 4196 8328 4217 8321 4217 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4188 8323 time...mot...loc 2016z 290deg 29kt 4198 8305
LCZ423 Expires:201905252028;;451770 FZUS73 KDTX 252019 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 419 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 LCZ423-LEZ444-252028-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lansing, MI
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location: 42.71, -84.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 271147
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
747 am edt Mon may 27 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 328 am edt Mon may 27 2019
- surface wave will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area by
late afternoon. Locally heavy rain is possible and strong storms
are possible south of i-96 this evening.

- thunderstorms possible i-69 area Tuesday with the cold front.

- additional showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday into
Thursday as main system comes out into this area
- some fog over the southeast and south central CWA this morning
should be gone by midday

Discussion (today through next Sunday)
issued at 328 am edt Mon may 27 2019
there is an area of fog, which is locally dense in the i-69 area
moving westward as I write this. We are thinking it will not
become extensive enough for a fog advisory but we will continue
to monitor it.

I am concerned about this evening for heavy rain and stronger
thunderstorms. The models continue to trend toward a much better
formed surface low (ecmwf,gfs, nam) for tonight compared to 24
hours ago when all of those models have only a weak surface wave
tonight. Having this stronger surface system would result in much
better surface forcing as well as much better upper forcing too.

I see two areas of enhanced precipitation with this system. First
is the deformation zone, northern jet entrance region lift area
over northern lower and upper michigan. That area has strong
isentropic ascent (40 knots) helping the cause and good mid level
f-gen. Of more concern to us the push over the warm front. This
has a strong low level jet feature, and effect deep layer shear
in the 30 to 40 knot range south of i-96. However at this point
the surface front does not get into michigan. So that would
suggest elevated storms with the severe storms just south of our
cwa. This is shown nicely by the latest SPC convective outlook
with our southern CWA in marginal while the enhanced is just
south of this area. We will have to watch this closely, if the
warm front gets farther north we could have severe storms this
evening.

The cold front trailing the surface wave may trigger thunderstorms
in the i-69 area Tuesday afternoon. It should be noted that the
stronger surface wave pulls down colder air so highs may stay in
the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

We will be also watching when that upper low the developed in the
southwest CONUS shears out. This system will likely send at least
a surface wave through this area later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Then we have to see how the main upper low comes out of the
southwestern conus. It may trigger a more significant severe storm
event later Wednesday or Thursday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 748 am edt Mon may 27 2019
the area of dense fog that moved westward from the jackson area
into battle creek is starting to mix out and should be gone
totally by 14z.

I believeVFR conditions will prevail most of the rest of the
daylight hours of today at all of our TAF sites. Then a
strengthening storm system will push a warm front (that will not
get through out TAF sites) ward i-94 and in so doing bring an area
of showers and thunderstorms through all of the TAF sites
tonight. This will bring MVFR ifr conditions to the TAF sites
tonight. I did not show the brief 1-2sm in +tsra since it's hard
to time this far out from the event just when that will happen but
i do believe most of not all of our TAF sites will see that
condition at least for a few minutes. Once the rain ends there
should be MVFR ifr in low clouds until after 12z.

Winds will be strong above 1000 ft all so I put low level wind
shear in all of the taf's tonight.

Marine
Issued at 328 am edt Mon may 27 2019
convection is likely the most significant marine issue as we do
not get enough wind in the next 3 days to cause a sca.

Hydrology
Issued at 342 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
Monday afternoon into Tuesday still look to be the prime opportunity
for more than an inch of additional rain as a round of showers and
thunderstorms move through the region. Additional rain will then be
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rivers are still expected to
stay below flood stage at this time, however we may need to monitor
some areas especially along the muskegon basin as they may crest
closest to minor flood stage should we see trends for higher
rainfall totals. Regardless, ponding of water will be possible in
poor drainage areas with locally heavy rainfall.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
discussion... Wdm
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Honor
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 88 mi73 min NE 8.9 G 11 57°F 1019 hPa (+1.1)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 88 mi61 min SE 1 G 1.9 51°F 56°F1017.4 hPa48°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 91 mi73 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI5 mi20 minSSE 53.00 miFog/Mist56°F55°F100%1019.4 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi18 minN 00.50 miFog56°F55°F97%1019.6 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI16 mi18 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1019 hPa

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE7N5NE6NE6NE6E5N4N3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmCalmSE3SE4SE5SE6SE5
1 day agoSW11SW18SW11SW12SW14W13W16
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W14W8SW8SW6SW7SW5SW8SW7W3W4NW3N4NE6
2 days agoW4CalmSE6SE6CalmNE3NE4E7SE7SE6NE5E6E6SE6SE6SE9SE8E9SE105N4E3SE4S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.