Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:53 AM   Moonset 1:07 PM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 021925 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 325 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms into Friday

- Mild with several chances for showers/storms



DISCUSSION
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

- Showers and thunderstorms into Friday

An upper level wave in the Upper Plains will track into the Western Great Lakes tonight. It takes on a negative tilt as it does. At the same time a low level jet will be tracking northeastward through Western Lower MI, generating lower level lift. Elevated instability will be present and PWAT values climb to well above normal levels at around 1.5 inches. Given the moisture, deep lift and presence of instability, showers and thunderstorms will become numerous tonight. High res models suggest several pockets of higher wind gusts could evolve overnight, but most indications are that they may struggle to reach severe criteria. The latest HRRR indicates the storms developing around Chicago will build northeast and into our CWA later this afternoon and into the evening. We did increase POPs accordingly.

On Friday the front will be pushing eastward through the CWA by mid afternoon. Thus any shower/storm activity will decrease from west to east through the early to mid afternoon hours. At this time the instability is progged to be limited so severe weather is not anticipated.

- Mild with several chances for showers/storms

A persistent long wave trough over the Rockies will send a steady stream of short waves toward the Great Lakes through the period.
Southwest winds aloft will also ensure that warm air flows across the cwa. Highs will be in the 70s throughout the period and nudge up to the 80 degree mark over the southwestern cwa Tuesday and Wednesday.

Saturday will probably be dry. However, a short wave moving across the region may give us some showers and perhaps a storm Saturday night.

Sunday looks dry, then another stronger wave arrives Monday night.
Strong low pressure over the northern plains is progd to push a warm front north into the cwa late Monday night. We'll likely see showers and storms develop along/ahead of the warm front with more development ahead of the trailing occluded front Tuesday.

Showers are possible again Thursday as the Plains low finally moves over the state.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Low pressure moving toward the Great Lakes will push clouds over the terminals tonight. We'll see high clouds this afternoon and perhaps a weak shower passing close to AZO around 18z. Otherwise, more showers/storms are expected tonight.

Models show a fairly strong signal of MVFR/IFR moving across the terminals from northwest to southeast beginning around 07z at MKG and lasting roughly 5 hrs before returning to VFR. This also coincides with the showers/storms arriving and departing.

MARINE
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

With a low level jet track through the zones tonight the winds will be on the increase. They are currently progged to remain below criteria for small craft advisory so no headlines will be issued at this time. Outside of the winds increasing over the lake, gusty winds will accompany the showers and thunderstorms that track through Lower MI tonight.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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