Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:49PM Monday November 20, 2017 1:02 AM EST (06:02 UTC) Moonrise 8:55AMMoonset 6:42PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 358 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow and rain showers likely, mainly in the morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
LEZ041 Expires:201711200415;;662225 FZUS51 KBUF 192058 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 358 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-200415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamburg, NY
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location: 42.72, -78.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200247
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
947 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
Much colder air will establish increasingly organized bands of lake
effect snow southeast of both lakes where several inches of snow are
expected by Monday morning. High pressure will pass well to our
south on Monday, but lake snows will persist east of the lakes.

Near term through Monday
Lake effect snow will be the main weather impact into Monday.

Relatively weak multiple lake effect bands have been traversing the
region on a wnw flow this evening, but so far without too much
organization. One reason for this was due to a shortwave trough
seen in water vapor imagery spinning slowly across southern
ontario and providing some directional shear. 500mb analysis
shows this fairly nearing the quebec border. Now that that
feature is nearly east of the region, flow aloft is expected to
get more aligned. This will set the stage for the main event
later tonight. A cold pool aloft racing toward ny. This feature
is harder to find in observational data save for a jet max
moving across wi, but it shows up quite well in 500mb
temperature forecasts down to -35c over over central
ontario province northern lake huron. This feature is poised to
head right over lake ontario.

For lake ontario... As the above feature moves over the lake,
lapse rates will steepen and equilibrium levels rise, leading to
a coherent single lake to lake band (georgian bay-->ontario)
that should impact clip far eastern wayne county, center over
northern cayuga, clip western oswego late tonight into Monday
morning. Current forecasts 6-12" look reasonable, much of this
falling in a short period near sunrise. Naturally, expect a
sharp gradient with far less outside the band (ex - less over
wayne county). Later on Monday, the band will weaken and shift
to the north covering the rest of oswego county, and weaken
further as it moves further north across the tug hill plateau.

With the migrating band, areas east lake ontario should only see
a few inches, tapering off to trace amounts as the band
continues north through jefferson and northern lewis counties
toward the end of Monday.

Off lake erie... The cold pool will mostly miss lake erie, resulting
in a more muted response. There should a period of enhancement with
a temporary lake to lake connection from huron. Compared to
ontario, there will multi-bands, shorter fetch, and less overall
strength. Thus expect areas of accumulating snow, with mostly
higher terrain seeing as much as 4-7", mostly late tonight and early
Monday. As winds slowly back with time Monday, expect lake
effect to weaken as the cold air pool moves east and a weak
ridge approaches from the west.

Areas outside lake effect areas will see a mix of clouds with
increasingly clearing skies well outside lake effect regions.

Flurries scattered showers are of course possible along the edges of
lake bands.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
On Monday evening, an 850 500 hpa ridge axis will cross the
region. As a result, lake effect snow will subside with up to an
additional inch of snow across the tug hill region. Backing
winds will send the lake snow east of lake ontario northward,
with snows ending across watertown-fort drum region.

Later Monday night into Tuesday, a period of dry weather is
expected as an axis of surface high pressure crosses the
region. Skies will clear Monday night, but a southerly breeze
will prevent temperatures from rapidly dropping, with overnight
lows in the lower 30s. Tuesday, southerly winds will increase
further, with gusts up to 30-40 mph. Highest gusts will likely
be across the hilltops of SW nys, where a 55 knot LLJ will
occasionally produce gusts 30 to 35 mph. Across the wny lake
plains, downslope flow under the strong LLJ may bring gusts
upwards towards 40 mph. Warming aloft accompanying the LLJ will
bring afternoon temperatures into the 50s. A spot 60f cannot be
ruled out across the genesee valley. Warmest areas will be the
lake plains and genesee valley, except for SE of lake ontario
where a melting snowpack will slow warming.

Meanwhile, surface low pressure will cut across the central
great lakes, deepening to about 990 mb as it crosses james bay
Tuesday night. A cold front front south of the low will be
tracking across the central great lakes. A potent upper level
shortwave trough will be crossing the central great lakes,
pushing the cold front and its precipitation eastward. Clouds
will begin to increase through Tuesday afternoon ahead of the
cold front and should help to diminish the gusty winds with less
mixing from isolation.

Rain showers along the front will reach wny Tuesday evening, and
continue to push inland across the region overnight. The warm
southerly flow ahead of the cold front will start precipitation
off as rain. As temperatures drop behind the front, rain will
mix with and likely change to snow by late Tuesday night. Not
much snow accumulation at this time, with perhaps an inch across
higher elevations.

Wednesday limited lake effect snow is likely to develop behind the
cold front. Equilibrium levels are lower... In the 8-9k feet
range. When compared to the Sunday Monday event, there is less
overall synoptic moisture. A northwest flow will bring snows
again to the southeast of the eastern great lakes, with
accumulations possible through the day. As high pressure pushes
towards the region Wednesday night, falling inversion heights
and drier air should end lake snows, with partly cloudy skies
late. Temperatures Wednesday night will drop back into the
20s... Lower 20s inland, and upper 20s near the lakes.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Thanksgiving day should largely be dry and cool, however model
guidance is in better agreement with a shortwave and associated
cold front expected to bring some snow showers Thursday night.

These should be of little consequence south of i-90, however a
longer fetch and closer proximity to the shortwave will allow
for a briefly organized lake effect band with light
accumulations possible east of lake ontario Thursday night.

Consensus 850 mb temperatures are marginal (-6c to -8c) with
showers possibly mixed with rain at times.

The cold front will briefly sag across the region, but should
quickly lift northward at a warm front Friday night. Before this, a
narrow ridge will cross the region with dry weather Friday and
much of Friday night.

12z runs of the ECMWF gfs ggem remain in good general agreement
with low pressure tracking across southern ontario province
Friday night then into western quebec on Saturday. By the time
this reaches the area most areas should be in the warm sector,
with mainly rain showers and warmer temperatures for Saturday.

After this, model guidance diverges with the ggem considerably
warmer than the ECMWF for Sunday. With support from the GFS and
a better track record, the forecast favors the cooler solution
with some lake effect snow showers possible east and southeast
of the lakes on Sunday.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Cigs will average 1500-2500 feet for all of the TAF sites. Due
to the nature of the multi-banded lake effect, there will be short
bursts of snow and temporary ifr conditions at times overnight. Se
of lake erie, this will be most noticeable over the southern tier
(kjhw kole). For lake ontario, expect a coherent single band
development SE of lake ontario toward kfzy late, lasting into
Monday morning.

Lake effect bands will weaken and drift north on Monday, with
ifr under the lake bands andVFR elsewhere. Expect mostlyVFR
over all wny and cny by the end of the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Wednesday... Rain and snow showers with a chance of MVFR ifr.

Thursday...VFR, but MVFR in lake effect -shsn E of the lakes.

Friday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
A tight pressure gradient will remain across the lower great lakes
through Monday. Small craft advisories will remain in place through
tonight.

Winds will subside somewhat Monday, as expansive high pressure
over the southern plains drifts to the east across the the
southern states. This will weaken the pressure gradient while
also establishing a warm advective pattern, which is less
conducive for low level mixing.

Fresh to strong southwesterlies found ahead of the next cold front
on Tuesday will keep rough conditions in place on lake erie.

Meanwhile offshore winds for the bulk of lake ontario will direct
the highest waves into canadian waters. The exception will be over
the northeast portion of the lake, north of mexico bay.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong onshore winds will continue into tonight building
significant wave action along the lake ontario shoreline. The
combination of already higher lake levels and continued wave
action will result in increased shoreline erosion, especially
where the lakeshore is already unstable from erosion earlier in
the year.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning until 1 am est Monday for nyz001>007.

Lake effect snow warning until 6 pm est Monday for nyz005-006.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for nyz004.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Monday for nyz012-019-
020-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Monday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Tuesday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Monday for loz030.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Tuesday for loz042>045.

Synopsis... Rsh tma
near term... Tma zaff
short term... Thomas
long term... Apffel
aviation... Tma zaff
marine... Rsh tma
tides coastal flooding... Tma jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 11 mi45 min W 18 G 24 34°F 1011.7 hPa23°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi45 min 36°F 1012.3 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 24 mi63 min WNW 23 G 27 36°F 49°F6 ft1012.6 hPa (+1.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi45 min 34°F 1012.4 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 32 mi63 min WNW 26 G 29 36°F 1011.8 hPa (+2.6)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 39 mi63 min W 14 G 21 36°F 1011.5 hPa (+1.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi183 min W 19 G 27 34°F 1011.5 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY16 mi69 minW 16 G 239.00 miLight Snow31°F24°F76%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW21
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1 day agoSE3SE7SE7SE4SW4S10SW8S14SW20
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S12SW11S10S8S9S4E5E5NE5E4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW14NW9--NW10
G16
NW9NW9NW8NW7N5N6NW4W4SW8SW6W3S4E4E3E6SE7SE6SE7SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.