Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamburg, NY
May 7, 2024 8:35 PM EDT (00:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 4:29 AM Moonset 7:16 PM |
LEZ041 Expires:202405072115;;786334 Fzus51 Kbuf 071404 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1004 am edt Tue may 7 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-072115- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1004 am edt Tue may 7 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast less than 10 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1004 am edt Tue may 7 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-072115- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1004 am edt Tue may 7 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 080010 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 810 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area tonight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Tonight through early Wednesday morning a mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight. A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the warm sector will impinge upon the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. The quality of forcing and moisture continue to support the idea of an organized area of showers and some embedded thunder (currently located over SE Lower Michigan and western Ohio as of 00z) moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight. Model guidance remains in good agreement bringing this into Western NY around midnight, into the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes during the early overnight hours, and areas east of Lake Ontario during the pre-dawn hours.
While conditions here will be nowhere near as unstable as what is currently seen upstream...enough elevated instability should be in place to support a few embedded garden-variety thunderstorms...
especially during the first half of the night. Any storms we do see could produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving along quickly enough to prevent any real flooding concerns.
Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.
There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.
Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.
A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The main challenge for this period will be periodic embeded shortwaves and the positioning of the H850 thermal boundary.
This feature is advertised to set up near the eastern Great Lakes, or even become draped across the region. This will impact temperatures, shower activity, and even thunderstorm potential through Friday. What is certain, it is looking 'likely' that it will be very unsettled through at least Friday. Given the unsettled weather anticipated...it would be highly recommended to have an umbrella handy through Friday. As was mentioned temperatures will be impacted...we could find ourselves on the cooler side of the thermal boundary with below normal temperatures. This will result in highs on Thursday only in the 60s, and then a tad bit cooler Friday with a range of 50s. May find a few spots in the low 60s.
Friday night...it looks like we will see a general decrease in shower coverage but can't completely rule out some showers overnight.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A broad upper level trough will become nestled across much of the Northeast through the weekend, and possibly will begin to retreat early next week. This pattern will 'likely' continue the theme of unsettled weather (showers), and also cool conditions (slightly below normal) across much of the region for this time of year.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure across New England will maintain VFR flight conditions through this evening. A warm front will then quickly push across the region overnight and early Wednesday morning...bringing a rough 3-4 hour period of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to most locations
As this occurs
mainly VFR conditions initially will tend to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR (mainly in lower ceilings) as the lower levels become increasingly saturated to the rainfall and the advection of greater lower level moisture into our region from the southwest.
Very late tonight and into early Wednesday morning some patchy fog and/or low stratus still appears to be a distinct possibility in the vicinity of KBUF/KART as the low level flow veers to southwesterly and off the cooler waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Any fog/stratus that forms should then dissipate during the mid to late morning hours
After that time
mainly VFR conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario through the rest of the period with just a low-end chance of a few more widely scattered afternoon showers/storms along a developing low-level convergence zone just south of that lake.
Meanwhile...areas east of Lake Ontario should see another round of showers/storms and associated lower-end VFR to MVFR conditions develop during the afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Moderate ENE winds will produce choppy conditions on Lake Ontario west of Rochester through the first half of tonight...however winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
WSW winds will then increase late tonight and Wednesday. This will particularly be the case across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 810 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area tonight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Tonight through early Wednesday morning a mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight. A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the warm sector will impinge upon the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. The quality of forcing and moisture continue to support the idea of an organized area of showers and some embedded thunder (currently located over SE Lower Michigan and western Ohio as of 00z) moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight. Model guidance remains in good agreement bringing this into Western NY around midnight, into the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes during the early overnight hours, and areas east of Lake Ontario during the pre-dawn hours.
While conditions here will be nowhere near as unstable as what is currently seen upstream...enough elevated instability should be in place to support a few embedded garden-variety thunderstorms...
especially during the first half of the night. Any storms we do see could produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving along quickly enough to prevent any real flooding concerns.
Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.
There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.
Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.
A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The main challenge for this period will be periodic embeded shortwaves and the positioning of the H850 thermal boundary.
This feature is advertised to set up near the eastern Great Lakes, or even become draped across the region. This will impact temperatures, shower activity, and even thunderstorm potential through Friday. What is certain, it is looking 'likely' that it will be very unsettled through at least Friday. Given the unsettled weather anticipated...it would be highly recommended to have an umbrella handy through Friday. As was mentioned temperatures will be impacted...we could find ourselves on the cooler side of the thermal boundary with below normal temperatures. This will result in highs on Thursday only in the 60s, and then a tad bit cooler Friday with a range of 50s. May find a few spots in the low 60s.
Friday night...it looks like we will see a general decrease in shower coverage but can't completely rule out some showers overnight.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A broad upper level trough will become nestled across much of the Northeast through the weekend, and possibly will begin to retreat early next week. This pattern will 'likely' continue the theme of unsettled weather (showers), and also cool conditions (slightly below normal) across much of the region for this time of year.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure across New England will maintain VFR flight conditions through this evening. A warm front will then quickly push across the region overnight and early Wednesday morning...bringing a rough 3-4 hour period of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to most locations
As this occurs
mainly VFR conditions initially will tend to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR (mainly in lower ceilings) as the lower levels become increasingly saturated to the rainfall and the advection of greater lower level moisture into our region from the southwest.
Very late tonight and into early Wednesday morning some patchy fog and/or low stratus still appears to be a distinct possibility in the vicinity of KBUF/KART as the low level flow veers to southwesterly and off the cooler waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Any fog/stratus that forms should then dissipate during the mid to late morning hours
After that time
mainly VFR conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario through the rest of the period with just a low-end chance of a few more widely scattered afternoon showers/storms along a developing low-level convergence zone just south of that lake.
Meanwhile...areas east of Lake Ontario should see another round of showers/storms and associated lower-end VFR to MVFR conditions develop during the afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Moderate ENE winds will produce choppy conditions on Lake Ontario west of Rochester through the first half of tonight...however winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
WSW winds will then increase late tonight and Wednesday. This will particularly be the case across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 11 mi | 47 min | NNE 7G | 71°F | 60°F | 29.64 | ||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 12 mi | 47 min | 65°F | 29.64 | ||||
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 24 mi | 35 min | NNW 3.9G | 65°F | 58°F | 0 ft | 29.66 | |
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 27 mi | 47 min | 67°F | 29.67 | ||||
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 32 mi | 35 min | NE 5.1G | 62°F | 29.66 | |||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 39 mi | 35 min | 0G | 59°F | 29.66 | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 43 mi | 35 min | E 8G | 56°F | 29.69 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY | 16 sm | 41 min | NE 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 48°F | 49% | 29.66 |
Buffalo, NY,
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