Monday, January22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Chiloquin, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:11PM Monday January 22, 2018 6:14 PM PST (02:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 10:56PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chiloquin, OR
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location: 42.73, -121.98     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 230001
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
401 pm pst Mon jan 22 2018

Discussion Winter is making up for being gone for most of
december through mid january, and is trying to get most of that
done through the next week. The upper ridge that brought a mostly
sunny afternoon to most of the region will move east that will
move onto the coast Tuesday morning, and is a slow moving system
that latches onto a +120 kt jet that slowly move south. The jet
axis is pointed at the washington coast and very slowly transition
to the southeast and over the forecast area Wednesday. This
strong jet extends far across the pacific with a strong
atmospheric river event indicated and several 6 hour periods with
over an inch of precipitation indicated in the south coastal
range Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.This event will
have slightly higher snow levels than the previous one, and with
the 700 mb flow being more southerly than with the previous system
there is higher confidence that there will be strong winds in the
shasta valley, higher precip rates in the mt. Shasta area, and
higher snow amounts and winds east of the cascades.

As the jet moves down it splits and the region is under a very
dynamically kissing jet pattern, with the region in the left exit
region of a 120kt to the south, and the right entrance region to
the north. This pattern gives greater confidence for getting
heavy precipitation rates and amounts, combined with the strong
atmospheric river indications.

A cold air mass moves in aloft and with a more westerly flow at
700 mb, -35c temperatures at 500 mb bringing an unstable air mass
have added a slight chance of thunderstorms to the coastal waters
and inland to the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. -sven

Long term Thu, jan 25th through Monday night, jan 30th, 2018...

the overall trend in the forecast guidance for the long term
forecast period over the last 24 hours has been for less of a break
in the active weather and related cloud cover this weekend than was
previously indicated. Models have trended generally wetter for
Friday night through Sunday, especially along and near the coast,
with the GFS trending more that way than the ecmwf. The ECMWF has
remained generally more consistent with its previous runs, but also
has trended about a day faster with respect to an incoming frontal
system early next week. The GFS ensemble mean (gefs) has also
trended toward lower heights for this weekend, so there is clear
trend toward less high pressure ridging in from the south Sunday
into Monday. Along with this, models have also trended further
south, faster, and cooler for the frontal system early next week.

The long term period begins with an anomalously cold trough of low
pressure extending from alaska southward to southern california
along the west coast. GEFS 500mb geopotential heights begin the
period at 537-540 decameters, which equates to a normalized anomaly
of -1.75 to -2 standard deviations. Model guidance has collectively
trended toward a slightly stronger onshore flow for Thursday and
Friday which equates to more shower activity and precipitation. Snow
levels continue to be on track to generally be between 1500 and 2500
feet, + - 500 feet. Thus, we'll be on the lookout for snowfall on
the lower passes such as jacksonville hill and the sexton summits.

Snow showers will also be possible on or near the valley floors of
the rogue and illinois valleys. Have continued with lower snow
levels Thursday morning through Friday morning in the illinois
valley josephine county area to account for the expectation of the
local effect of lower snow levels in convective SW flow over and
near the illinois valley for that time period. Locations such as
hayes hill in the illinois valley are likely to see some
accumulating snowfall during the Thursday to Friday time period. Of
note, the ECMWF keeps the bulk of the precipitation in the Thursday
to Friday time frame along and near the coast range and across
northern california, while the GFS pushes it further inland. Both
models, however, have trended further inland with shower activity
for Friday.

As mentioned above, the forecast for this weekend has trended
wetter cloudier. The ECMWF still indicates something of a break in
the precipitation Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but only about 6
hours long in the reedsport area. The gfs, on the other hand, shows
the break during the Sunday afternoon to Monday morning time frame,
with heavy precipitation along the coast Saturday and Sunday.

Coastal interests, in particular, should keep an eye on the details
of the forecast for this weekend because the higher end
precipitation amount solution could push some waterways, especially
smaller ones, to near bankfull. Most likely, amounts will be lesser,
but the realm of possibility does lead us to some concern.

The frontal system early next week arrives at the coast on Sunday on
the ECMWF and on Monday on the gfs. Snow levels, once again, appear
as if they will roller coaster, beginning near 6kft and falling to
near 1500 feet in showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Btl

Aviation 22 18z TAF cycle... Areas of ifr MVFR conditions will
improve quickly toVFR, especially in visibilities for west side
valleys. Ifr condition is expected again tonight for the west side
valley but may be brief as the next front approaches the coast early
Tuesday morning. Fb

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Monday 22 jan 2018... Seas will remain
steep and hazardous through tonight, then south winds will increase
after midnight to small craft ahead of the next front. This next
front will not be as strong as the recent one on Sunday, and only
gales are expected. However, the front may stall and the duration of
strong winds may be longer than the Sunday system. Currently it
looks like winds will decrease just below gale force after Wednesday
morning, but are expected to remain increased through Thursday

Seas will build again late Tuesday morning becoming very steep and
hazardous 14 to 17 feet at 10 to 11 seconds through Wednesday
morning. Seas will remain elevated through much of the week, peaking
again at 19 to 20 feet on Thursday. Conditions may briefly improve
Friday before the next front moves through the waters Friday
evening. Fb

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind warning from 4 am to 10 pm pst Wednesday for

Winter weather advisory from 10 pm Tuesday to 10 pm pst
Wednesday for orz029-030.

Winter storm warning from 10 pm Tuesday to 10 pm pst Wednesday
for orz029-030.

High wind warning from 4 pm to 10 pm pst Tuesday for orz021-022.

Winter storm warning from 10 pm Tuesday to 10 pm pst Wednesday
above 5000 feet in the for orz027-028.

Ca... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm Tuesday to 10 pm pst
Wednesday below 3500 feet in the for caz082.

Winter storm warning from 10 pm Tuesday to 10 pm pst Wednesday
above 3500 feet in the for caz082-083.

High wind warning from 4 pm Tuesday to 10 am pst Wednesday for

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am pst Tuesday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 4 am Tuesday to 4 pm pst Friday for

Gale warning from 4 am Tuesday to 4 am pst Wednesday for

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am pst Tuesday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Sbn sbn sbn

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klamath Falls International Airport, OR42 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair33°F27°F78%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from LMT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS8S12S11S5NW4NW7NW7W11N3W6W9W12W5CalmCalmCalmNW3S3CalmSW5W4W4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmSE3CalmSE6SE7S4SE4S83CalmS11S11SE11SE16SE15S19
2 days agoCalmW3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S6CalmS3CalmSE3S6SE4S5S3S6S4W8W8SW6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.