Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chiloquin, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:48PM Thursday February 21, 2019 2:46 PM PST (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chiloquin, OR
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location: 42.73, -121.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 212241
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
241 pm pst Thu feb 21 2019

Discussion We'll catch a break in the weather through Friday
afternoon with dry conditions expected. Another cold night is
expected, especially if we clear out enough for most locations,
including the coast. In fact it could end up colder than it was this
morning. Therefore another frost advisory is in effect for the
coast. For details please see npwmfr. Also we could see freezing fog
late this evening into Friday morning in similar areas as this
morning.

A front will move south into the area later Friday night bringing
precipitation mainly along and west of the cascades. There is good
agreement most of the precipitation will be along the coast, coastal
mountains and cascades. Even then were not expecting anything
significant. There's also a chance for light precipitation to affect
the passes along i-5 between grants pass and canyonville. At this
time, "the window of opportunity" for road snow will be from late
Friday night until around mid morning Saturday. We think snow
amounts in these areas will be an inch or less, but this could
change.

The main event in terms of precipitation is expected to be Saturday
night through at least Sunday night. The models all show a
significant surge of moisture moving into the forecast area during
this time. This has the signature of an ar event which means we
could be dealing with significant amounts of precipitation. The one
caveat is they differ with the location of highest QPF values. Some
place the heaviest precipitation in southwest oregon and northern
california while others have it focused in southwest oregon. Either
way, it looks like the coast, coastal mountains and cascades will
get the bulk of the precipitation.

The general consensus is we'll be on the "warm" side of things which
means snow levels will be higher. They are expected to be between
2500 and 3000 feet Saturday night into Sunday morning, then between
3000 and 3500 feet Sunday afternoon. They should be above the passes
between grants pass and canyonville, but it not looking good for the
passes along the cascades and siskiyous, including lake of the
woods, crater lake, diamond lake and siskiyou summit and portions of
the east side. Although snow amounts at siskiyou summit and east
side may be less. Given that these areas could get pounded with a
prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow, we decided to issue a
winter storm watch. Please see wswmfr for more details. Needless to
day we could see several feet of snow, especially in the crater lake
area. Of note: while confidence on this is low, there is a chance
the frontal boundary could slip south along the oregon california
border Sunday which could result in lower snow levels in oregon.

This will be watched carefully.

Meanwhile heavy rain will hammer the coast and coast range. Mainstem
rivers, small creeks and streams are expected to rise with flooding
possible. Because of this, an esf has also been issued. Please see
esfmfr for more details. -petrucelli

Long term Monday through Thursday... Models show an atmospheric
river continuing to impact the pacific northwest Monday and into
Tuesday. Depending on where the main band of precipitation sets up,
the area may see heavy rain. Current models show the strongest band
of moisture feeding into southern oregon and northern california on
Monday as a frontal system gradually moves in the area. Given this
pattern, heavy rain is likely at the coast, into the coast
mountains, and portions of southern josephine county and siskiyou
county on Monday with moderate precipitation in other . Inland
areas. The frontal band may linger along coastal areas Monday night
with another system approaching from the west, then moving into the
region on Tuesday. This may allow for continued heavy to moderate
precipitation across the area through Tuesday. Of note, models have
show run to run variability on the details on these fronts and exact
position of the heavy precipitation. So will need to monitor and
update this forecast with additional models runs.

The main concern Monday through Tuesday night is the potential for
heavy rain at the coast and inland over western portions of the
area. Forecast snow levels generally range from 4000 to 5500 feet
Monday and Tuesday and may peak at 5000 to 6000 feet late Tuesday.

However depending on the position of the front, the snow level
forecast may change. Higher mountain passes could see moderate to
heavy snow, mainly Monday morning and possibly into Tuesday for
northern portions of the area such as from crater lake north.

However, confidence is low on these details at this time. Confidence
is moderate for heavy rain though. The heavy rain combined with snow
melt may lead to flooding of area rivers and streams. Also of note,
strong winds are also possible with this event, especially for areas
east of the cascades and in the shasta valley. The GFS and ecmwf
both show a strong 60 kt mid level jet moving into the area Monday
through Tuesday. At the coast, gusty south winds are likely as well
with the initial front on Monday and possible again on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, the active pattern may continue. However,
there is greater variability in the model and ensemble forecasts so
confidence is low in the details. Wednesday, may see continued
moderate precipitation over southern portions of the area until the
front shifts southeast. On Thursday, models indicate the frontal
system will shift east but another strong and moist low pressure
system is forecast to approach the area form the west. So any break
in the active weather pattern may be brief with models indicating
this next system possibly moving into the region on Friday bringing
the potential for another round of moderate to heavy precipitation
and possible strong winds.

Aviation For the 21 18z tafs... West of the cascades, a mix of
MVFR and ifr conditions are being observed in most valleys. Latest
hourly model data suggest that these conditions improve toVFR by
early afternoon. Conditions will degrade again to ifr early Friday
morning in most west side valleys under clear skies and continued
low level moisture. Confidence is low for the coastal areas tonight,
but we thinkVFR conditions will prevail due to a drier air mass in
place. East of the cascades, mountains obscuration and areas of MVFR
conditions are being observed this morning. Some improvement is
expected this afternoon, but low clouds are again possible tonight,
especially on northeast-facing terrain due to continued northeast
winds. Keene

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Thursday 21 february 2019... Winds and
steep seas are gradually subsiding, and seas will lower below 10
feet by Friday morning. High pressure will nudge into the waters
tonight, then weaken Friday. A weak front will move into the area
Friday night into Saturday, then stall over the area through Sunday
at least. The front will gain strength late in the weekend and early
next week and bring the potential for increasing winds and waves.

There is considerable uncertainty associated with this frontal
system from Sunday into early next week, so expect some changes to
the forecast in the coming days. Keene

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for orz029-030.

Frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am pst Friday for orz021-022.

Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for orz025.

Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for orz027-028.

Ca... Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for caz080.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am pst Friday for pzz350-356.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klamath Falls International Airport, OR42 mi54 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy29°F14°F54%1014.1 hPa

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Last 24hrW11W13NW8SW3SW4CalmCalmN3NE3CalmN5NW5N103N7NE6N5N11NE10
G14
NE9N8N10NE10NW5
1 day agoSW44W13NW16
G23
W11W11W7W8W11W13
G18
SW9NW4W13W13NW4W4NW10W6W7W12W9W13W12W16
G20
2 days agoNW8NW11NW10NW10N9N5NW5S5NW4N3CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.