Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watervliet, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:54PM Saturday January 20, 2018 9:41 PM EST (02:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 9:30PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watervliet, NY
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location: 42.73, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 210000
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
700 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Synopsis
Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend
into early next week. A low pressure system may bring some light
mixed precipitation to the area late Sunday night into Monday
morning with mainly rain then expected into Tuesday. However, the
threat for mixed precipitation will linger across portions of the
western and southern adirondacks and southern vermont through Monday
night. A colder, seasonable airmass will be ushered back into the
region behind the storm.

Near term through Sunday
As of 655 pm est, very minor changes made to the forecast this
evening. Reduced the sky cover across southeast ny and tweaked
temperatures to align them with recent obs. Sent updates to ndfd
and web servers.

Prev disc... As of 300 pm est... A mainly dry forecast is
expected during the near term period as a cold front will become
stationary along the u.S. Canadian border tonight and Sunday.

Temperatures will average above normal with lows tonight in the
mid 20s to lower 30s and highs on Sunday in the mid 30s to mid
40s. There will be some stratus clouds around tonight into at
least Sunday morning with the greatest cloud cover across
northern areas.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Quasi-stationary boundary either along or north of i90 will
persist Sunday night as low pressure upstream takes shape.

Meanwhile, canadian high near james bay is expected to build
further and extend its influence across new england overnight
into Monday. As the aforementioned low pressure takes shape
across the plains states, downstream increasing moist transport
along with isentropic lift commences overnight into Monday
morning. This will at at the minimum increase and thicken lower
the clouds and introduce the chance for light wintry mixture to
evolve. The challenge will be the temperature profile along with
low level ageostrophic flow from the north. Profiles suggest a
period of light snow, sleet and freezing rain developing from
southwest to northeast into Monday morning. QPF values appear to
be rather light so perhaps an advisory would be needed with
future updates.

Increasing low level jet and warm advection should continue
through the daylight hours Monday as a gradual transition to
mainly rain drizzle should occur. Temperatures should moderate
well into the 30s for most locations with near 40f for portions
of the mid-hudson valley and litchfield county.

The main rainfall event is expected along and ahead of the cold
front Monday night into Tuesday morning as a nearly vertically
stacked low tracks across the great lakes and begins to fill.

Rather impressive low level jet, with +3 standard deviations
above normal southerly component magnitudes along with pwats
around 2 standard deviations above normal. So a period of
moderate rain is expected and could be briefly heavy if
convective elements were to develop. Showalter values on the
global models remain toward the positive side with mesoscale
models near to slightly below zero. For now, we will leave the
mention of thunder out of the forecast but continue to watch
trends.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Following the potent disturbance from Tuesday, we should enter in a
fairly quiet pattern to finish out the work week. We start off the
period on Wednesday which will feature a reinforcing shot of cold
air advection as a secondary cold front moves through the region
early in the day. While 850mb isotherms fall to -15-17c due to the
cold air advection, this will manifest into seasonable high
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A decent pressure gradient
behind the departing low should lead to rather breezy winds as well
which should make it feel even cooler. Other than cooler
temperatures, strong westerly winds could also lead to lake effect
snow. Given the set-up, the highest probability of snow was put in
the adirondacks and western mohawk valley with chance pops and
decreased pops down to slight chance down into the greater capital
district and southern vermont. By sunset on Wednesday the subsidence
inversion should start to descend and westerly winds should shift
northwest due to the incoming high. Thus, decreased pops heading
into Wednesday night. Moisture trapped under the inversion overnight
should keeping at least partly cloudy skies in place. This combined
with still somewhat breezy winds should prevent low temperatures
from becoming too cold, only falling into the teens.

By Thursday, the canadian high pressure takes control of the region
and we should see mostly sunny skies with cooler high temperatures,
only reaching into the mid - upper 20s. Mostly clear skies overnight
under this chilly air mass and low dew points near zero should lead
to colder low temperatures falling into the single digits and low
teens (below zero readings in the adirondacks possible).

High pressure shifts into eastern new england on Friday and a
moisture starved warm front crosses the area late in the day. Behind
the front, strong southwesterly flow sets up with warm air advection
leading to increased cloud coverage for Saturday and much milder air
reaching into the 40s. The warm air advection may also lead some
scattered showers in the adirondacks of herkimer and hamilton.

Depending on exact timing, cold air at the surface may be stubborn
to exit and with the incoming mild air aloft, we could see wintry
mix. The newest forecast update reflects this threat.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions expected to continue this evening with dry air
in the low levels. A low pressure system will continue to track
well north of the area this evening with just some areas of mid
and high clouds associated with it. In the wake of this system,
cold air advection is expected to result in the expansion of
stratus tonight. Expect cloud bases to be at borderlineVFR MVFR
levels, except at kpou where the stratus isn't expected to
reach.

Gusty west winds will diminish this evening to around 5 to 10
kt tonight through tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of dz... Fzdz.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Dz.

Monday night: high operational impact. Breezy definite ra... Dz.

Tuesday: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Hydrology
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due
to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place.

Temperatures will run about 10 degrees above normal this
weekend into early next week. However, temperatures are forecast
to fall below freezing at night which will slow or stop any
melt. Monday night temperatures are not expected to drop below
freezing across most of the local area but are expected to be in
the 30s. Tuesday will be the warmest day in this forecast period with
highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s with a colder seasonable
airmass returning Tuesday night.

A storm develops and tracks across the great lakes through the
early week, initially the precipitation will be light Monday
and start out as a mix with a change to rain across much of the
area during the daylight hours. Monday night rain is expected
except across the western and southern adirondacks and southern
vermont where more mixed precipitation is expected before a
changeover to rain occurs on Tuesday. The bulk of the rain is
expected late Monday night and Tuesday morning. QPF from the
various models are now averaging over 1 inch.

The rain is expected to cause renewed river rises, which may
move and dislodge ice and possibly cause some flooding near ice
jams.

Our latest winter spring flood potential outlook (esfaly) was
issued Friday evening.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... 11
near term... 11 jvm
short term... Bgm
long term... Thompson speciale
aviation... 11 thompson jvm
hydrology... Iaa bgm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 51 mi72 min 30°F 1015 hPa28°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY6 mi51 minWNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F26°F60%1015.7 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY15 mi53 minW 410.00 miFair39°F26°F61%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S11S13S11S8S93S6S7S7S5S4S4W7
G16
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1 day agoW8NW6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S5S6S5S5S5S3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmS5
2 days agoCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW12W12W15
G20
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W11W12NW12
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 01:46 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:56 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:22 PM EST     5.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.2-0.10.72.23.54.24.54.33.42.31.51.10.70.512.43.94.95.35.24.53.22

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:36 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     4.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:45 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:13 PM EST     5.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.1-0.20.82.23.44.14.343.121.30.90.50.41.12.544.85.254.12.81.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.