Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 3:58 AM   Moonset 3:56 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 040726 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 326 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the New England coast will provide continued dry conditions through today. The high will remain nearly stationary through this evening, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west tonight. Clouds will gradually increase and thicken, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Showers will become widespread by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. Dry and warmer conditions are expected on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Other than a few light showers or sprinkles across the far NW Adirondacks early this morning, dry conditions will persist.
Mid level clouds continue to gradually increase from the west.

Latest trends in guidance indicate surface high pressure remaining positioned along the New England through this evening.
Ridging aloft will also be in place during this time. So arrival of showers have been slowed even further, with the day/evening now expected to be mainly dry. A few light/brief showers will be possible for areas well west of the Hudson Valley this evening. Otherwise it should be dry with thickening mid level clouds. There is expected to be periods of clouds with occasional breaks of sunshine through this afternoon. So high temperatures should be slightly above normal again, with mid 60s to lower 70s expected across much of the area.

Chances for showers will then increase overnight west of the Hudson Valley, with the upper ridge axis starting to break down as a short wave moves in from the west. It will be dry with overcast skies from the Hudson Valley east. Again with the slower trends, will only mention slight/chance PoPs through tonight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to around 50.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Cool, raw and damp conditions will occur on Sunday. Widespread showers will move across the entire area, as forcing increases substantially with isentropic lift strengthening on the 290-295K surfaces. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of a slow moving front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions will allow deep layer moisture to increase with PWAT anomalies rising to +1 to +2 STDEV. The short wave trough aloft will also be moving eastward across the region enhancing ascent. With clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, highs will only reach the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations.

Showers will likely persist into Sun evening, as the surface front gradually approaches from the west with isentropic lift continuing. Will mention likely/categorical PoPs through the evening. The front looks to push through overnight into early Mon morning, with showers tapering off from NW to SE. Total rainfall expected to be 0.25-0.50" from around Albany south/east, with 0.50-1.00" north/west(greatest amounts upper Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks). The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns.

Drying conditions expected on Mon, as the front clears the area and surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great Lakes. Winds will shift to the W-NW, with PWATs lowering through the day. After morning clouds, sunshine should appear during the afternoon. With a well-mixed environment and relatively mild temperatures aloft, highs should be quite mild ranging from mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys.

High pressure builds east into our region Mon night, providing dry/tranquil conditions. Lows look to be in the 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Fair weather with warm temperatures for Tuesday as weak mid level ridge traverses the region. Highs in the 70s for most valley areas except 65-70 for higher terrain areas.

Unsettled conditions then return for Wednesday through Friday, as a series of fast moving upper level disturbances pass through. This should bring plenty of clouds along with several bouts of rain or showers, perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms at times. Temperatures will be near to below normal during this period, with highs mainly in the mid 60s to around 70, although could be much cooler if steady rain occurs, with overnight lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening, with some MVFR Cigs possibly developing after 04Z/Sun at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy mid level clouds will increase late tonight through Saturday. Lower clouds are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL, possibly dropping to 2000-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun.

Light/variable winds are expected through daybreak, though may remain south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB. Southeast to south winds will increase to 5-10 KT at all TAF sites by mid morning Saturday and continue into Saturday evening. A few gusts of 15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time.

Outlook...

Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Sat -- 02:20 AM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Sat -- 02:12 AM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:39 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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Albany, NY,