Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hartwick, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:43 PM EDT (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:48PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1218 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 217 in effect until 2 pm edt...
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through Friday morning...
This afternoon..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds and large hail early. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201905232100;;335545 FZUS51 KBUF 231618 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1218 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-232100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hartwick, NY
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location: 42.73, -75.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 231353
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
953 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
With the approach of a front, thunderstorms will become likely,
some possibly severe with damaging winds and large hail. Cooler
weather returns Friday, with gusty winds and light spotty
showers mainly in central new york. Another round of
thunderstorms may occur late Saturday.

Near term through Friday
950 am update... First watch has been issued for out ny zones
west of i-81. Updated the grids to reflect the currents and add
the enhanced wording for the watch area.

415 am update... Main concern is potential for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening. The storm
prediction center includes the whole region in at least a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms, with enhanced risk across much
of pennsylvania including wyoming valley scranton wilkes-
barre poconos areas. Damaging winds, large hail, and even
isolated tornadoes may occur with the strongest storms.

Upper ridge axis has already shunted to our east, exposing our
region to a wave-riddled west-southwest flow aloft ahead of an
upper trough. In addition to brining in increasing moisture,
mid to upper level instability is also advecting into the
region. A lead shortwave already brought in a band of showers
and embedded thunder overnight, now settling over the poconos
prior to dawn.

Unlike the event we had last Sunday, which in itself did manage
some severe thunderstorms, this potential event has much
stronger forcing. 500mb height falls of 60-100 meters are
indicated in the models this afternoon, as a pair of waves
carry across the region. Models disagree on which wave will be
dominant, but most focus on the second one, that is set to carry
through roughly 2pm to 9pm from northwest to southeast. The
concern is that an elevated mixed layer will may yield
significant instability lapse rates aloft with that second wave
as well as a lot of shear. 0-6km shear gets past 60 knots by
late afternoon, 0-3km bulk shear values even approach 50 knots
which is worrisome in terms of bow echo potential. Helicity has
trended somewhat lower yet still manages 150-250 m2 s2 which is
still plenty enough to warrant a concern for isolated
tornadoes.

Biggest question mark will be in the mesoscale; that is,
whether the midday wave leave enough cloud debris and negative
vorticity to hold back convection like indicated in earlier hrrr
runs. The hrrr is stronger with the midday wave yet latest runs
are trending more towards the rest of convection allowing
models in generating new convection with the second wave.

Convective available potential energy should easily exceed 500
j kg and potentially near 1000 j kg especially for some of our
pennsylvania zones; with again timing of individual waves and
cloud debris playing an uncertainty factor. With the elevated
mixed layer and height falls, however, surface heating may not
be as important as it was with our most recent event. Highs will
be mainly 70s yet dewpoints will climb to around 60 degrees or
so. All told, it remains uncertain for how widespread this event
will be, but confidence has increased that at least a couple
higher end storms supercells could occur within our region. Pay
close attention to the weather today.

In the wake of afternoon-early evening convection, with upper
trough pivoting into the area tonight we may see an additional
line of showers isolated thunder drop primarily into the central
ny zones later this evening. However, things wind down
overnight, with cold air advection dipping temperatures to lows
of lower to mid 50s.

On Friday, with chilly air aloft there will be plenty of mixing
with gusty northwesterly wind in cyclonic flow. Highs will be in
the 60s except for near 70 in lower elevations of northeast pa.

Spotty light showers could still occur in the morning to early
afternoon mainly in parts of central new york.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Friday night: high pressure is expected to build into the region
keeping conditions dry. Clear skies and light winds will allow for
radiational cooling with some spots falling into the 40's.

Saturday through Sunday: a warm front will likely move through the
region on Saturday and be followed by a cold frontal boundary and
associated low pressure system moving through the area Saturday
night into Sunday. This looks to be another fairly dynamic system
but with conditional instability. Right now fairly good model and
ensemble agreement is in place to center the best shower and
thunderstorm chances Saturday night with moisture in place.

Temperatures in the warm sector should warm into the 60's at night
and 70's in the day. The cold front looks to slow down over the
region in response to a strong mid-level ridge in the southeast.

Some potential is present for a few lingering showers or
thunderstorms but the coverage looks to be fairly limited and
highest in NE pa s.Catskills.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night through Monday night: high pressure builds in and moves
the region with another calmer period in time for the holiday. Still
pleasant temperature wise with lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's.

Tuesday through Wednesday night: a mid-level ridge over the
southeast deflects the next system into the great lakes. An
associated warm front will provide the lift and moisture for some
additional shower and thunderstorm chances in this period. Higher
chances are currently present across northern portions of central
new york but that will be dependent on the strength and location of
the ridge over the southeast. Our region may see 80's by Wednesday
with ensemble guidance potentially too cool if the boundary ends up
north of our region.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions will prevail this morning, but warmth and
moisture will spread into the region. As the atmosphere
destabilizes this afternoon, a cold front is expected to cause
thunderstorms to sweep across the terminals. Best timing
likelihood has been indicated via tempo groups, though this
could shift back or forth by an hour or two; monitor for taf
updates. Currently anticipating thunder to be roughly 19z
northwest to 01z southeast. Some storms could be severe with
strong gusts and perhaps even hail. As for general winds,
initial southeast to south 5-8 knots will veer more south-
southwest up to 10 knots during the day; followed by a gusty
westerly along and in the wake of the line of storms. A post-
frontal MVFR to fuel alternate ceiling is anticipated to form
late tonight for at least ksyr-krme-kith-kbgm.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night... Post-frontal MVFR to fuel
alternate ceilings may linger into Friday morning, especially
for the ny terminals; otherwiseVFR.

Saturday through Saturday night... Showers and thunderstorms
with associated restrictions likely, especially late afternoon
through evening. Storms may contain strong gusts.

Sunday through Sunday night... MainlyVFR but there will be a
small chance of showers or thunderstorms Sunday, and perhaps
a lingering MVFR ceiling behind that for Monday night.

Monday...VFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Dgm mdp
near term... Dgm mdp
short term... Mwg
long term... Mwg
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 93 mi56 min S 9.9 G 15 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY40 mi51 minESE 510.00 miOvercast71°F57°F61%1015.1 hPa

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Last 24hr5SW4W3Calm3SW5E4E5E6E8E8E5E7E7E5E7E6E6E6SE6E864SE5
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NW15NW10NW8NW4CalmCalmNW4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4N8SE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.71.10.60.823.44.55.25.55.24.23.12.21.40.400.71.93.13.84.24.23.6

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Thu -- 02:47 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:44 AM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:26 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:12 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.50.90.71.32.63.84.75.25.34.83.72.71.910.20.31.22.43.33.84.13.93.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.