Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hartwick, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:02PM Monday January 22, 2018 9:12 PM EST (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 10:39PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 652 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain after 10 pm. Patchy fog. Waves in ice free areas 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Rain and snow likely in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers. Waves subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LOZ044 Expires:201801230415;;850267 FZUS51 KBUF 222352 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 652 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-230415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hartwick, NY
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location: 42.73, -75.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 230047
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
747 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A storm system moving out of the ohio valley will spread rain
across ny and pa overnight into early Tuesday. Colder air behind
the front will generate light snow showers Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Near term through Tuesday
730 pm update...

small pocket of northern otsego county has had temperatures
holding around freezing, with wet roads and earlier rain drizzle
which has now waned. Patchy ice still possible there for a time
this evening including richfield springs, cherry valley, and
springfield locales. That being said, readings across most of
northeast pa-central ny are in the mid 30s-mid 40s, and that
will continue to creep up overnight ahead of the approaching low
pressure system. Rainwise, things are now pretty quiet this
evening, but lead shortwave will bring an axis of showers into
the area shortly after midnight. This will be followed by tap of
deep moisture riding in strong south-southwesterly low level
jet which will result in batch of moderate rain for the area
through Tuesday morning; heaviest from the wyoming valley-
poconos through catskills where amounts may exceed three-
quarters of an inch. In addition to tweaking details of the
above features, forecast was also adjusted to move up the slight
chance of thunder to mainly the morning hours, across roughly
the southeast half of the area. Models in agreement for the
morning hours being the time frame for marginal instability to
cross the area along and just ahead of the incoming cold front.

Previous discussion...

high elevation dense fog continues to hold strong, and the
current thinking is the fog won't break up until the next wave
of rain showers moves in overnight and mixes up the atmosphere.

In the meantime, the valleys will experience patchy, light fog,
while areas of dense fog (1 4 mile to 1 2 mile) will affect the
high elevations.

A cyclone moving out of the ohio valley into michigan will pull
additional warm and humid air into ny pa overnight. Rain will
overspread the region, accumulating around 0.75 to 0.90 inches
overnight. A non- diurnal temperature trend is forecast
tonight, with temperatures holding steady or potentially rising
into the lower-40s.

The cold front will pass through on Tuesday. Rain showers will
change over to snow showers overnight, with little to no
accumulation expected across most of the region. Lake effect
could produce around an inch of new snow over northern oneida
county.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
Sheared NW flow off the lakes with marginally cold air will
bring some lake effect snow showers into the ny zones on
Wednesday. Amounts will be light and temperatures near normal.

For Thursday, somewhat colder air arrives as the upper trough
deepens, but flow off the lake will be less favorable as a
surface high builds in. Still there will be a few lake effect
snow showers and flurries well into the daytime hours Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
High pressure builds in for Friday as the upper heights rise.

This will be milder air into the area as the southerly flow
increases. Dry weather continues into Saturday as the southwest
flow strengthens increasing the warm advection continues. Cold
front pushes through Saturday night, followed by colder air for
Sunday. Expect widespread showers along and ahead of the front,
with showers ending quickly behind the front as ridging builds
in.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
A brief improvement in conditions is occurring across the
terminals as showers shift east and flow increases. In general
through around 06z, MVFRVFR conditions are forecast with
restrictions due primarily to visibility. After 06z conditions
will deteriorate again as a frontal boundary brings rain back
into the terminals. Conditions will fall into the ifr category
with possibly alternate min conditions at kith kelm kavp. By
early afternoon the front will pass and conditons will quickly
improve to lowVFR MVFR.

Low level winds shear will persist until frontal passage
Tuesday afternoon with southerly winds around 35-40 knots at 2k
feet above ground level. Surface winds will be east southeast
overnight around 10 knots but gusty on the hilltops. Winds shift
Tuesday afternoon to the southwest at 10 knots with gusts to 18
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Possible continuation of
flight category reductions and a chance of shsn.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR under high pressure.

Hydrology
745 pm update...

localized flooding due to ice jams is possible mainly Tuesday
through Tuesday night. Widespread rain will develop across the
region late tonight through midday Tuesday, with amounts
ranging from a quarter to three quarters of an inch.

Temperatures will rise overnight to 45-50 range by late Tuesday
morning. Also, the snow pack water equivalent going into this
event was generally around 1 inch or less. So, the combination
of rain and snowmelt runoff will cause rivers to rise which may
break up the ice currently in place. This may result in jams
downstream. The most rainfall is expected across the susquehanna
river basin in northeast pa and the delaware basin in ny and
pa. However, ice jams can occur along any rivers in our area.

Overall, rain amounts, temperatures, and snowmelt point to an
isolated threat of ice jam flooding at worst. With each
successive model suite run, the average forecast rainfall
amounts are lessening bit by bit. We will continue to monitor
the situation closely, and if higher rainfall amounts were to
appear more likely, a flood watch could be issued.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Djp
near term... Djp mdp
short term... Dgm
long term... Dgm
aviation... Rrm
hydrology... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 77 mi42 min 36°F 1020 hPa35°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 93 mi42 min SSE 4.1 G 6 41°F 1011.4 hPa38°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY40 mi19 minESE 78.00 miOvercast37°F35°F93%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E6E7E5E5E4E7E4E4E5E6E7SE9SE7E12SE11SE10SE11SE8SE10E9E11E9SE7
1 day agoNW3NW3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE4E6E6E6E6E6
2 days agoCalmE3E7E6E7E7E7E5CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW5W12
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W12W13W10W7NW5CalmNW4

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Mon -- 02:04 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:25 PM EST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:58 PM EST     4.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.60.30.61.62.93.94.44.54.13.22.11.51.3111.8344.64.84.53.62.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:00 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:21 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:32 PM EST     4.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.60.2-0.10.31.73.24.24.64.53.82.71.71.20.90.60.71.73.24.34.84.84.33.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.