Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:49 AM   Moonset 5:40 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405062115;;725524 Fzus51 Kbuf 061403 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1003 am edt Mon may 6 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-062115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1003 am edt Mon may 6 2024
Rest of today - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 061330 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 930 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will slowly move through the region today sweeping away the clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds into the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. Additional systems with some showers move through for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
925 AM Update...

A few showers are moving into the Catskills and NEPA. Showers are expected off and on across NEPA and the Catskills through the day. Temperatures were bumped up a degree or two across northern portions of the CWA where clearing is expected to occur later this morning. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

630 am update...

Bumped up hourly temperatures for the immediate time then adjusted the daytime temperatures slightly down. Increased clouds for mostly NEPA.

320 am update...

A few showers have popped up in the Finger Lakes and Oneida County ahead of a slow moving cold front. Coverage is expected to increase to scattered early this morning across CNY then to isolated late morning and afternoon. Forcing is weak with little instability and wind shear. Low level moisture is good with cloudy skies. The front will exit to the southeast out of NEPA and the western Catskills early this evening. Rainfall amounts will be light and spotty. Behind the front skies will clear this afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast.
High temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon.

Tonight drier air comes in with high pressure from the northwest.
It will be a good radiational cooling night with clear skies and light to calm winds. Patchy valley fog is possible late.
Lows in the low and mid 40s CNY to around 50 in the Wyoming Valley of NEPA.

The high pressure system moves into eastern NY Tuesday. Sunny skies give way to some clouds late coming in from the southwest.
Maybe a shower gets into Luzerne County early in the evening.
Winds will be light. High temperatures will be in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
356 AM Update...
Low pressure over Lake Erie will drift ENE Tuesday night, with a weak warm front lifting across the area. Meanwhile, a jet streak nosing into western NY will promote larger scale lift, with rain showers expected to increase in coverage through the night, lifting SW to NE.

Low pressure will move into the upper Saint Lawrence valley Wednesday morning, with a cold front expected to push east across NY state fairly early in the day, reaching the Hudson Valley by early afternoon. Weak instability will develop ahead of the front, with shear sufficient for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, but the timing of the front appears to be too early except perhaps for the far eastern portions of the CWA
Should the front slow down between now and then, the risk for stronger thunderstorms would be greater.

Otherwise, most of the area, especially west of I-81, will be dry Wed afternoon and evening. A few showers ahead of the next system could work into the western Finger Lakes late Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
356 AM Update...

A slow moving upper level trough will move from the Great Lakes Thursday into northern New England Saturday, bringing us a period of unsettled weather. A deeper trough looks to carve itself out across the Great Lakes in the wake of the first, which may bring a return to unsettled weather again.

Surface low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley into Central NY during the day Thursday, with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms expected across the area. Showers look to linger into Friday as low pressure is slow to move out, and wrap-around showers and cooler temperatures will persist into Saturday, though with diminished coverage.

Sunday is showing somewhat of an improving trend, as the next system looks to bring showers into western NY/PA late in the afternoon or early in the evening. Southerly flow ahead of this system should bring temperatures back up closer to normal as well.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
645 AM Update...

Widespread MVFR are across the area for most sites still. Some IFR at some sites this morning. Cigs and vsbys improve today to be VFR. VFR tonight. No valley fog expected at this time. A cold front is making its way southeast through CNY now and AVP this afternoon. IFR along the front and at BGM/AVP ahead of it.

BGM will remain IFR until around 18z, then VFR by 20z. Through 14z cigs and possibly vsbys will be around airport minimums.

AVP has fallen to IFR cigs. IFR until 18z then VFR at 22z.

SYR/RME will remain MVFR until 16z then lift to VFR.

ITH should be IFR from 12 to 15z then lift to VFR at 17z. ELM is MVFR and may get IFR 12 to 14z before lifting to VFR at 17z.

Light winds under 7 kts early this morning, turning west and northwest at 4 to 8 kts this morning and afternoon. Tonight winds light and variable to calm.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely with a period of rain showers along a warm front.

Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR.

Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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New Baltimore
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